An Examination of the Relationship between Volatility and Expected Returns in the BRVM Stock Market

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 7-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Godwin Olasehinde-Williams
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
West African ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Financial theory suggests that volatility affects average stock returns positively. It is claimed that markets reward economic agents for the risk they assume with higher returns. This study uses an ARMA (1, 2)-GARCH (1, 1)-M technique to examine the impact of volatility on BRVM stock returns in the integrated regional West African stock market. A positive but insignificant relationship was found between volatility and stock returns. The study concludes that there is no significant feedback from volatility to average returns in the stock market. Our findings indicate that investors are not compensated for taking risks in the regional stock market.

scholarly journals The Linkage between Sentiments and Stock Market Dynamics New Evidence from Iran

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
Heshmatollah Asgari ◽  
Hamed Najafi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Screening Method ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Research Criteria ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

In recent years, the issue of financial behaviour and the impact of investors’ sentiments on their decision making have become such a popular issue. The sentiments of financial activists affect the market price of financial assets and particularly stocks, and therefore it is included in the new pricing models of capital assets. In this article, we seek the effect of investors’ sentiments on the dynamics of the Iranian stock market (TSE). To do this, among the companies accepted in the stock market we select 120, considering the research criteria and screening method, we examined TSE specifics throughout 2010-2018 using regression analysis and causality test. Our results show that firstly investors’ sentiments have a direct effect on the stock returns and there is a bilateral relationship between them. Secondly, inflation has the opposite effect and economic growth has a direct and positive effect on the relationship between investor sentiment and stock returns. Finally, government spending has no significant effect on the relationship between investor sentiment and stock returns.

Does time-varying illiquidity matter for the Indian stock market? Evidence from high-frequency data

2021 ◽  
pp. 031289622110102
Author(s):  
Mousumi Bhattacharya ◽  
Sharad Nath Bhattacharya ◽  
Sumit Kumar Jha
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Exogenous Shock ◽  
Intraday Data ◽  
Day Of The Week ◽  
Holiday Effects ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
The Impact

This article examines variations in illiquidity in the Indian stock market, using intraday data. Panel regression reveals prevalent day-of-the-week, month, and holiday effects in illiquidity across industries, especially during exogenous shock periods. Illiquidity fluctuations are higher during the second and third quarters. The ranking of most illiquid stocks varies, depending on whether illiquidity is measured using an adjusted or unadjusted Amihud measure. Using pooled quantile regression, we note that illiquidity plays an important asymmetric role in explaining stock returns under up- and down-market conditions in the presence of open interest and volatility. The impact of illiquidity is more severe during periods of extreme high and low returns. JEL Classification: G10, G12

RESPONSE OF STOCK MARKET DURING COVID-19 AND 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS: A COMPARATIVE EVIDENCE FROM BRICS NATIONS

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
SANJEEV KUMAR ◽  
JASPREET KAUR ◽  
MOSAB I. TABASH ◽  
DANG K. TRAN ◽  
RAJ S DHANKAR
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
First Case ◽  
Egarch Model ◽  
The 2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

This study attempts to examine the response of stock markets amid the COVID-19 pandemic on prominent stock markets of the BRICS nation and compare it with the 2008 financial crisis by employing the GARCH and EGARCH model. First, average and variance of stock returns are tested for differences before and after the pandemic, t-test and F-test were applied. Further, OLS regression was applied to study the impact of COVID-19 on the standard deviation of returns using daily data of total cases, total deaths, and returns of the indices from the date on which the first case was reported till June 2020. Second, GARCH and EGARCH models are employed to compare the impact of COVID-19 and the 2008 financial crisis on the stock market volatility by using the data of respective stock indices for the period 2005–2020. The results suggest that the increasing number of COVID-19 cases and reported death cases hurt stock markets of the five countries except for South Africa in the latter case. The findings of the GARCH and EGARCH model indicate that for India and Russia, the financial crisis of 2008 has caused more stock volatility whereas stock markets of China, Brazil, and South Africa have been more volatile during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study has practical implications for investors, portfolio managers, institutional investors, regulatory institutions, and policymakers as it provides an understanding of stock market behavior in response to a major global crisis and helps them in taking decisions considering the risk of these events.

A quantile regression approach to evaluate the relative impact of global and local factors on the MENA stock markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Slah Bahloul ◽  
Nawel Ben Amor
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper investigates the relative importance of local macroeconomic and global factors in the explanation of twelve MENA (Middle East and North Africa) stock market returns across the different quantiles in order to determine their degree of international financial integration.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use both ordinary least squares and quantile regressions from January 2007 to January 2018. Quantile regression permits to know how the effects of explanatory variables vary across the different states of the market.FindingsThe results of this paper indicate that the impact of local macroeconomic and global factors differs across the quantiles and markets. Generally, there are wide ranges in degree of international integration and most of MENA stock markets appear to be weakly integrated. This reveals that the portfolio diversification within the stock markets in this region is still beneficial.Originality/valueThis paper is original for two reasons. First, it emphasizes, over a fairly long period, the impact of a large number of macroeconomic and global variables on the MENA stock market returns. Second, it examines if the relative effects of these factors on MENA stock returns vary or not across the market states and MENA countries.

Do Indian stock market sentiments impact contemporaneous returns?

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 332-346
Author(s):  
Divya Aggarwal ◽  
Pitabas Mohanty
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Sentiments ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of Indian investor sentiments on contemporaneous stock returns of Bombay Stock Exchange, National Stock Exchange and various sectoral indices in India by developing a sentiment index. Design/methodology/approach The study uses principal component analysis to develop a sentiment index as a proxy for Indian stock market sentiments over a time frame from April 1996 to January 2017. It uses an exploratory approach to identify relevant proxies in building a sentiment index using indirect market measures and macro variables of Indian and US markets. Findings The study finds that there is a significant positive correlation between the sentiment index and stock index returns. Sectors which are more dependent on institutional fund flows show a significant impact of the change in sentiments on their respective sectoral indices. Research limitations/implications The study has used data at a monthly frequency. Analysing higher frequency data can explain short-term temporal dynamics between sentiments and returns better. Further studies can be done to explore whether sentiments can be used to predict stock returns. Practical implications The results imply that one can develop profitable trading strategies by investing in sectors like metals and capital goods, which are more susceptible to generate positive returns when the sentiment index is high. Originality/value The study supplements the existing literature on the impact of investor sentiments on contemporaneous stock returns in the context of a developing market. It identifies relevant proxies of investor sentiments for the Indian stock market.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PORTOFOLIO SEBAGAI DASAR PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI SAHAM YANG TERDAFTAR DI BEI

IQTISHODUNA ◽  
2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sri Yati
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Analytical Method ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Portfolio Analysis ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Expected Return

This study aims to analyze rate of return and risk as the tools to form the portfolio analysis on 15 the most actives stocks listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange. Descriptive analytical method is used to describe the correlation between three variables: stock returns, expected returns of stock market, and beta in order to measure the risk of stocks to help the investors in making the investment decisions. The research materials are 15 the most actives stocks listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange during 2008-2009. The results show that PT. Astra International Tbk. has the highest average expected return of individual stock (Ri) of 308,3355685, while PT. Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk. has the lowest of -477,0827847. The average expected return of stock market (Rm) is 0,00247163. PT. Astra International Tbk. has the highest systematic risk level of 20229,14205, while the lowest of -147,5793279 is PT. Kalbe Farma Tbk. Furthermore, the results also indicate that there are 9 stocks can be combined to form optimal portfolio because they have positive expected returns.

scholarly journals Pandemic and Indonesia Stock Market Performance

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 254-262
Author(s):  
Intan Surya Lesmana ◽  
Siti Saadah
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Symmetric Model ◽  
Asymmetric Model ◽  
Government Response ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesia’s stock market performance. Considering the characteristics of daily stock return data that shows the characteristics of volatility clustering, the analytical method used is to develop a heteroscedastic model specification whose parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood method. Based on data from March 2020 to January 2021, this study finds that the Exponential-GARCH asymmetric model is the best model compared to the Standard-GARCH symmetric model or the asymmetric Threshold-GARCH model. The inference analysis conducted on the Exponential-GARCH asymmetric model in this study shows that the stock market's performance that is significantly affected by this pandemic is the volatility of its returns. Stock price volatility is one of the important variables in stock market performance. This study produces empirical findings that government policies on social restrictions contribute significantly to suppressing stock market volatility. As for government policies in mitigating the risk of the spread of the epidemic, in this study, it is measured through a stringency index. This index was released by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) which monitors the government's response to the coronavirus in 160 countries and is a parameter that evaluates the policies taken by a country's government based on nine metrics. This index does not measure the effectiveness of a country's government response, but only the level of tightness. However, the results of the tests carried out in this study did not find a significant impact of pandemic indicators, the number of cases, and the number of daily deaths related to COVID-19 on stock returns.

scholarly journals Transactions Volume, Exchange Direction and Asymmetry of Volatility in Emerging Market: Evidence From Tunisian Stock Exchange

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 318
Author(s):  
Jaber Yasmina
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Trading Activity ◽  
Auto Correlation ◽  
The Asymmetry ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This study is an attempt to explain the relationship between intraday return and volume in Tunisian Stock Market. Indeed, former researches avow that the trading activity have the main explanatory power for volatility. However, most theories measure the activity of transactions through the size of exchange or the number of transactions. Nevertheless, these components are not aware enough of the importance of the direction of exchange when explaining the phenomenon of asymmetry of volatility. In the most of studies, the technique “Augmented Tick Test” (ATT) is employed so as to identify the direction of exchange. Such technique is adapted for the markets directed by orders like the Tunisian financial market. Again, this paper shows that the impact of the direction of exchange differs according to the market trend. In other words, if the returns are positive, the transactions of sale (of purchase) generate a decrease (increase) of volatility; whereas, they induce an increase (drop) of volatility if returns are negative. This result stresses the significance of exchange direction in explaning the asymmetry of volatility. Moreover, throughout this study, one may affirm that “Herding trades” are at the origin of the increase of volatility, while the “Contrarian trades” reduce volatility. Similarly, the identification of the direction of exchange enables us to affirm that the transactions of the initiates are characterized by the absence of returns auto- correlation; whereas, the transactions carried out by uninformed investors present an auto- correlation of the returns. In fact, the sign of this correlation varies according to transaction direction.

scholarly journals The Impact of Investor Sentiment on Return of Different Industries in Pakistan

2017 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Sumayya Chughtai Et al.,
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Principle Component Analysis ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Differential Impact ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Available Information ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

We classify stocks in different industries to measure industrial sentiment based on principle component analysis in order to examine whether investor sentiment exerts a differential impact on stock returns across different industries. After having constructed industry-level sentiment indices we construct a composite investor sentiment index. Our results suggest that investor sentiment negatively affects current as well as future stock returns in Pakistan over the examined period. However, we find that the influence of investor sentiment varies substantially across different industries. We also find that the market sentiment index has a negative relationship with both current and future stock returns. We also show that the direction of the relationship between return and sentiment remains same for the current and future period. This indicates that investors overreact to the available information and mispricing exists for a prolonged time. Our results confirm that sentiment driven mispricing persists for upcoming time and stock markets are not fully efficient to adjust instantaneously.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document