scholarly journals Pembentukan Mata Uang Tunggal Kawasan ASEAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 152
Author(s):  
Nurul Cholifah ◽  
Diah Wahyuningsih
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Single Currency ◽  
Output Data ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Oca Criteria

Financial integration is the last step that can be done to achieve economic integration. One condition that must be met before the implementation of financial integration is the existence of the optimal currency area (OCA) criteria. The purpose of this study: 1) to find out the closeness of the currency to changes in the bilateral exchange rate as a supporter in the possibility of forming a single currency in the ASEAN region, 2) to analyze the chosen anchor currency which has a positive influence (appreciation) on the local currency of the ASEAN region as a currency single money region. This study uses annual real output data, size of GDP ratio, bilateral trade, differences in the composition of trade, and the exchange rate throughout of 1995-2018 period. The analytical method used is panel data test. The results showed that the currencies of ASEAN countries did not yet have the closeness of forming a single currency in the ASEAN region. Meanwhile, to determine the appropriate anchor currency to be used as a shared currency, namely SGD (Singapore Dollar) empirically has a positive influence (appreciation) in the ASEAN region compared to RMB, JPY, Euro, or USD. Therefore SGD can be proposed as an anchor currency for ASEAN countries.

Chancen und Risiken einer Dollarisierung in Argentinien

2003 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralph Setzer
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
The United States ◽  
Optimum Currency Area ◽  
Currency Board ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
International Investors ◽  
Strong Candidate ◽  
Optimum Currency

AbstractThe collapse of the Argentinean Currency Board revived the debate about the optimal exchange rate regime for Argentina. Given its large exposure to nervous international investors, Argentina is a strong candidate for dollarization, which could provide lower inflation and higher financial integration with the United States. However, Argentina’s poor qualifications for a fixed exchange rate under the traditional optimum currency area criteria and the absence of adequate labor market and fiscal policy structures indicate that dollarization would suffer from the same problems as the Currency Board system. Thus, dollarization, in advance of other fundamental reforms seems a risky strategy.

Banking union in a single currency area: evidence on financial fragmentation

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 251-274 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Valiante
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Institutional Design ◽  
Home Bias ◽  
Banking Union ◽  
Single Currency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of the impact of the single currency on the institutional design of the banking union, through evidence on the financial integration process. Design/methodology/approach – Data analysis uses multiple sources of data on key drivers of financial fragmentation. The paper starts from a snapshot the status of financial integration and then identifies the main components of this trend. Findings – Evidence shows that financial integration in the euro area between 2010 and 2014 retrenched at a quicker pace than outside the monetary union. Home bias persisted. Under market pressures, governments compete on funding costs by supporting “their” banks with massive state aids, which distorts the playing field and feed the risk-aversion loop. This situation intensifies frictions in credit markets, thus hampering the transmission of monetary policies and, potentially, economic growth. Taking stock of developments in the euro area, this paper discusses the theoretical framework of a banking union in a single currency area with decentralised fiscal policy sovereignty. It concludes that, when a crisis looms over, a common fiscal backstop can reduce pressures of financial fragmentation, driven by governments’ moral hazard and banks’ home bias. Research limitations/implications – Additional research is required to deepen the empirical analysis, with econometric modelling, on the links between governments’ implicit guarantees and banks’ home bias. This is an initial data analysis. Originality/value – Under market pressure, governments in a single currency area tend to be overprotective (more than countries with full monetary sovereignty) towards their own banking system and so trigger financial fragmentation (enhancing banks’ home bias). To revert that, a common fiscal backstop is an essential element of the institutional design. The paper shows empirical evidence and theory, as well as it identifies underlying market failures. It links the single currency to the institutional design of a banking union. This important dimension is brought into a coherent framework.

Sweden and EMU

2003 ◽  
Vol 186 ◽  
pp. 33-34
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Single Currency ◽  
European Currency ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
Swedish Krona ◽  
Opt Out ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Rate Criterion

On 14 September, Sweden voted against adopting the euro, with 56.1 per cent voting against and 41.8 per cent voting in favour of the single European currency, with a strong turnout of 81.2 per cent. This was a blow to both the government and business lobbies, who strongly favoured euro entry. While Sweden does not have a formal opt-out clause like the UK and Denmark, they have remained outside the single currency area by postponing membership of ERMII and thereby failing to meet the exchange rate criterion. Since 1999, the Swedish krona has fluctuated from a high of 9.96 krona to the euro to a low of 8.06.

scholarly journals PENERAPAN KRITERIA OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA DAN VOLATILITASNYA: STUDI KASUS ASEAN-5 +3

2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimas Bagus Wiranata Kusuma ◽  
Arief Dwi Putranto
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Economic Structure ◽  
Optimum Currency Area ◽  
Single Currency ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Currency Exchange Rate ◽  
Optimum Currency ◽  
Positive Impacts

This paper is aiming to elaborate the case of how exchange rate volatility (ERV), which is supposedly considered to form optimum currency area (OCA), can be reduced in order justify the feasibility of the OCA idea within ASEAN5 plus three. Interestingly, the results provide some evidences that the ASEAN5+3 are considered not really ready to form OCA. It corroborates the existing opinion that the different in economic structure and its policies over foreign environment are becoming some barriers and challenging area to synchronize in the following time. The positive impacts AS to ERV which are incurred in ASEAN5+3 economies indicate the existence of inappropriate condition to form OCA since there are no similar shocks across a monetary union’s participating countries. Under such condition, it would foster the costs of forgoing the exchange rate as a shock absorbing mechanism. It deserves to argue that those observed countries still are resisting their existing regime since they are till believing that they begin to establish the system of monetary which are able to absorb any possible shocks in regards of their SIZE. In sum, the ASEAN5+3 countries are considered to fulfilling the requirement to form currency optimum area which are able to main their stable currency.JEL: D81, E52, F15, F36Key words: Optimum Currency Area, a Single Currency, Exchange Rate Volatility, Stability

scholarly journals IMPLEMENTATION OF OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA CRITERIA AND ITS VOLATILITY: CASE STUDY ASEAN-5+3

2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-214
Author(s):  
Dimas Bagus Wiranata Kusuma ◽  
Arief Dwi Putranto
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Economic Structure ◽  
Optimum Currency Area ◽  
Single Currency ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Currency Exchange Rate ◽  
Optimum Currency

This paper is aiming to elaborate the case of how exchange rate volatility (ERV), which is supposedly considered to form optimum currency area (OCA), can be reduced in order justify the feasibility of the OCA idea within ASEAN5 plus three. Interestingly, the results provide some evidences that the ASEAN5+3 are considered not really ready to form OCA. It corroborates the existing opinion that the different in economic structure and its policies over foreign environment are becoming some barriers and challenging area to synchronize in the following time. The positive impacts AS to ERV which are incurred in ASEAN5+3 economies indicate the existence of inappropriate condition to form OCA since there are no similar shocks across a monetary union’s participating countries. Under such condition, it would foster the costs of forgoing the exchange rate as a shock absorbing mechanism. It deserves to argue that those observed countries still are resisting their existing regime since they are till believing that they begin to establish the system of monetary which are able to absorb any possible shocks in regards of their SIZE. In sum, the ASEAN5+3 countries are considered to fulfilling the requirement to form currency optimum area which are able to main their stable currency.JEL: D81, E52, F15, F36Key words: Optimum Currency Area, a Single Currency, Exchange Rate Volatility, Stability

On the Exchange Rate Policy

2010 ◽  
pp. 21-28
Author(s):  
K. Yudaeva
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Institutional Changes ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The level of trust in the local currency in Russia is very low largely because of relatively high inflation. As a result, Bank of Russia during crisis times can not afford monetary policy loosening and has to fight devaluation expectations. To change the situation in the post-crisis period Russia needs to live through a continuous period of low inflation. Modified inflation targeting can help achieve such a result. However, it should be amended with institutional changes, particularly development of hedging instruments.

Currency Manipulations and Bilateral Trade Between China and the USA

2017 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 171-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masoud Moghaddam ◽  
Jie Duan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
The Us ◽  
Spot Exchange Rate ◽  
Main Culprit ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Strong Relation

The US trade deficit with China has existed for a long time, and its dollar value has been on the rise recently. It is widely believed that the main culprit is the manipulated value of Renminbi relative to the US dollar. Towards that end, this article re-examines the spot exchange rate and bilateral trade nexus using the Fourier approximation and a variant of the well-known gravity model during the sample period 1993: q1–2014: q1. Although China’s exports to the US Granger cause the exchange rate in a co-integrated space, the findings of a vector error correction model indicate that there is not a strong relation between the two. Indeed, within the aforementioned sample, only 15.52 per cent of changes in China’s exports to the USA are attributable to changes in the spot exchange rate. This is noticeably much smaller than impacts of the other variables utilized in the estimated gravity model. As such, the palpable trade imbalance between the USA and China cannot be single-handedly blamed on the spot exchange rate manipulations.

Who is Trading Well with China? A Gravity and Constant Market Share Analysis of Exports of Pakistan and ASEAN in the Chinese Market

2021 ◽  
pp. 002190962110450
Author(s):  
Muhammad Abdul Kamal ◽  
Unbreen Qayyum ◽  
Saleem Khan ◽  
Bosede Ngozi Adeleye
Keyword(s):  
Market Share ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Chinese Market ◽  
Trade Potential ◽  
Trade Competitiveness ◽  
Constant Market Share Analysis ◽  
Constant Market Share ◽  
Asean Countries

This paper empirically investigated the trade competitiveness and trade potential of Pakistan and ASEAN countries in the Chinese market. The study utilizes trade data for the period of 2003–2019 to assess the bilateral trade aspects by using an extended gravity equation. In addition, the PPML model and constant market share analysis are applied to examine trade potential and competitiveness, respectively. Market size, distance, trade openness, revealed comparative advantage position and common border play an important role in bilateral trade of Pakistan and ASEAN with China, and coefficients of all these variables comply with the economic theory and are statistically significant. Pakistan along with Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Philippines, and Thailand has great trade potential in the Chinese market. Particularly Cambodia and Vietnam are enjoying the highest competitive advantage as compared to other ASEAN countries. Pakistan’s export performance in China’s market relies on the market distribution effect. Based on this study, we have discussed country-specific future policy discourse for Pakistan and ASEAN countries in detail.

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