scholarly journals Significant Determiners of Greek Debt Crisis: A Comparative Analysis with Probit and MARS Approaches

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 33-50
Author(s):  
Filiz Mızrak ◽  
Serhat Yüksel
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Saving Ratio ◽  
Greek Crisis ◽  
The Government ◽  
Probit Method ◽  
Media Channels

The purpose of this study is to determine major indicators of the Greek crisis that started in 2009 and the effects of which can still be observed. In this regard, 8 independent variables were applied so as to fulfill the objective. Besides, the annual data between the years 1984 and 2016 was analyzed with Probit model. As a consequence of this study, it was concluded that inflation and gross savings are the leading meters of Greek crisis based on probit method. On the other hand, according to the MARS results, 3 different variables are identified as the indicators of the debt crisis in Greece. It is concluded that there is a negative relation between financial crisis with saving ratio and current account balance. Additionally, it is also identified that high unemployment ratio leads to financial crisis. While comparisng the results of these two approaches, it is concluded that MARS is much more successful than the probit method to predict the debt crisis in Greece. It is strongly recommended that saving ratio should be increased in Greece. For this purpose, governments should take some actions in order to increase this ratio more than 15.5%. Within this framework, media channels can be used by the government to tell the people about the importance of the savings to have sustainable economic development.

Is the GCC an optimum currency area (OCA)? Empirical answers from co-movements

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 873-890
Author(s):  
Tamsir Cham
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Optimum Currency Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
Optimum Currency

Purpose This paper aims to investigate whether the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is an optimum currency area in the wake of the global financial crisis and low oil prices using annual data from 2000 to 2016. Design/methodology/approach It applies the European Monetary Union as a reference point and co-movement methodology on key variables such as gross domestic product, inflation, terms of trade and current account balance. The findings revealed that all countries meet the macroeconomic convergence criteria and there is greater co-movement of these variables in the GCC. Findings Furthermore, the degree of co-movements increases during the financial crisis and recent low oil prices, which signifies the synchronization of shocks. However, labor is less mobile in the region and current account balance co-movement is relatively weak, but with the endogeneity of a monetary union, these constraints will evaporate as the zone enters monetary unification. The paper recommends that for the GCC monetary union to happen and be sustainable, there needs to be political will. The paper also recommended for the zone to have a common identification card so that nationals can move and work freely within the GCC region. Originality/value The study defers from the others in the following: this paper considered shock synchronization and co-movement methodology, which has not been applied in the region to assess its feasibility as an OCA.

Greek Crisis

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stella Ladi ◽  
Vivian Spyropoulou
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Party System ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Social Institutions ◽  
Economic Adjustment ◽  
Coalition Governments ◽  
Greek Crisis ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The Greek crisis started in 2009 as a result of the global financial crisis of 2008, and it officially ended in August 2018 when Greece exited the Third Economic Adjustment Programme that it had signed with its international lenders to avoid default. Greece had to seek help from international lenders, including the European Commission (EC), European Central Bank (ECB), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and, in the last program, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), three times (2010, 2012, and 2015). The crisis soon spread to other European Monetary Union (EMU) countries—namely Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and Cyprus—and it was transformed into a Eurozone crisis, with some commonalities but with different characteristics in each case. The Greek crisis was a sovereign debt crisis that resulted from a continuous aggravation of the national economic indicators, such as growth, inflation, and unemployment, serious long term structural shortcomings, and the pressure from the global financial crisis. The economic crisis was soon translated into a political crisis that shook the Greek party system and strengthened more radical parties such as the left-wing Syriza and the neo-fascist Golden Dawn. Strong one-party governments became a memory of the past and were replaced by short-lived coalition governments. The economic pressure also led to a serious social crisis with rising poverty levels, unprecedented numbers of homeless, and a welfare system unable to cope with the increasing demands. It posed questions about the shape of Greece’s political and social institutions, its legal system and Constitution, and its public administration’s capability to cope with the crisis and implement the conditionality attached to the three economic adjustment programs. Last but not least, the Greek crisis brought into fore the weaknesses and discrepancies of the EMU and was the motive behind important structural reforms, such as the creation of new financial assistance and surveillance mechanisms, including the ESM, as well as the strengthening of informal institutions such as the Euro summits. The discussion was soon extended to a questioning of the viability of the European Union (EU) project, the role of Germany, and the changing Europeanization mechanisms. The bibliography about the Greek crisis developed quickly and covers economic, political, social, and legal issues concerning not only Greece, but also the EU as a whole, taking the case of Greece as a starting point.

Currency controls will not curb crisis in Argentina

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Social Indicators ◽  
Political Transition ◽  
The Political ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
The Government

Significance The surprisingly ample victory of opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez over President Mauricio Macri in the August 11 presidential primaries triggered a currency run and a sharp fall in international reserves and led the government to announce a “voluntary reprofiling” of short-term debt. The announcement was interpreted as a default, worsening investor expectations. The debt crisis puts the political transition at stake, with nearly two months before the general election and over three months until a new administration takes office in December. Impacts Following a new debt crisis, capital markets will be closed, forcing a sharper fiscal adjustment. The financial crisis will delay any economic rebound and worsen social indicators. The fragile fiscal situation will inhibit implementation of any ‘populist’ measures by the new government. The structural reform agenda will make some progress, though more slowly than expected.

scholarly journals Identifying the Factors Influence Turkish Deposit Banks to Join Corporate Social Responsibility Activities by Using Panel Probit Method

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-50
Author(s):  
Serhat Yuksel ◽  
Mustafa Ozsari
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Social Responsibility ◽  
Social Responsibility ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Nonperforming Loans ◽  
Probit Method ◽  
Corporate Social ◽  
Financial Losses

This study aims to determine the influencing factors of the banks to join corporate social responsibility activities. Within this scope, annual data of 23 deposit banks in Turkey for the periods between 2005 and 2015 was taken into the consideration. In addition to this situation, panel probit model was used in the analysis so as to achieve this objective. According to the results of the analysis, it was determined that there is a negative relationship between CSR activities and nonperforming loans ratio. This situation shows that banks do not prefer to make social responsibility activities in case of higher financial losses. In addition to this situation, it was also identified that there is a positive relationship between return on asset and corporate social responsibility activities of the banks. In other words, it can be understood that Turkish deposit banks, which have higher profitability, joint more CSR activities in comparison with others.

Evolving Domestic Bond Markets and Financial Deepening in Asia

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-112
Author(s):  
Dilip K. Das
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Securities Markets ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Financial Deepening ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The principal thesis of this paper is growth and development of the debt securities markets in Asia, which resulted in financial deepening. In the post-Asian financial crisis period development of Asian currency dominated long-term bond markets was given a high priority. Conception and launch of the ABMI initiative proved to be exceedingly meaningful in this regard. Additionally, with an objective to develop well-capitalized regional bond markets, the EMEAP group of central banks launched the Asian Bond Fund or the ABF1 and ABF2. This process was exceedingly helpful in providing opportunities for learning the game of issuing and investing in bonds. In the post-Asian crisis phase central bankers and finance ministries in several Asian economies were successful in their efforts to develop domestic or local currency bond markets, which included both the government and corporate bond sectors. The paper discusses both the government and corporate bond markets in Asia. During the decade of the 2000s domestic debt securities markets in several Asian economies expanded dramatically. This paper shows that the global financial crisis and the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis have had both direct and indirect impacts over the global economy. However, statistical data show that the global financial crisis (2007–2009) had only a minor impact on the Asian bond issue trend.

Crisis Reactions and Their Consequences for the Real Sector of the Russian Economy

2011 ◽  
pp. 39-50
Author(s):  
V. Lushin
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Acute Phase ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
The Real ◽  
Balanced Development ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Modernization

The author analyzes factors that led to a deeper fall in output and profitability in the real sector of the Russian economy in comparison with other segments during the acute phase of the financial crisis. It is argued that some contradictions in the government anti-recession policy, activities of the financial sector and natural monopolies lead to pumping out added value created in manufacturing and agriculture, increase symptoms of the «Dutch disease», etc. It is shown that it may threaten the balanced development of the Russian economy, and a set of measures is suggested to minimize these tendencies and create a basis for the state modernization policy.

Overcoming Stereotypes

2008 ◽  
pp. 110-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Yakovlev
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Pragmatic Approach ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Conventional View ◽  
The Government ◽  
High Uncertainty

Using the data of SU-HSU enterprises surveys and internal statistics of KPMG company the paper provides a non-conventional view on three economic problems which have recently been in the center of expert discussions in Russia: competitiveness of firms, corruption in the government and level of taxation. The paper argues the necessity of pragmatic approach to economic phenomena, especially under conditions of high uncertainty caused by the increasing global financial crisis.

Tribunes and Patricians: Fringe Parties in the 21st Century

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry Nedelcu
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Full Text ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Radical Right ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
Structural Shifts

The mid and late 2000s witnessed a proliferation of political parties in European party systems. Marxist, Libertarian, Pirate, and Animal parties, as well as radical-right and populist parties, have become part of an increasingly heterogeneous political spectrum generally dominated by the mainstream centre-left and centre-right. The question this article explores is what led to the surge of these parties during the first decade of the 21st century. While it is tempting to look at structural arguments or the recent late-2000s financial crisis to explain this proliferation, the emergence of these parties predates the debt-crisis and can not be described by structural shifts alone . This paper argues that the proliferation of new radical parties came about not only as a result of changes in the political space, but rather due to the very perceived presence and even strengthening of what Katz and Mair (1995) famously dubbed the "cartelization" of mainstream political parties.   Full text available at: https://doi.org/10.22215/rera.v7i1.210

Conclusion

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nauro F. Campos ◽  
Paul De Grauwe ◽  
Yuemei Ji
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Structural Reform ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Sovereign Debt Crisis ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Structural reform policies move like the business cycle. There are moments when these are implemented with great fervour and others when they are put on the back burner or even dismantled. After the global financial crisis, and in particular the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, many countries were forced by creditor countries or were self-imposed to apply deep reforms to their product markets and especially to their labour markets. Now that Europe is recovering, the pressure to implement structural reforms has abated....

scholarly journals The politics of bailouts: Estimating the causal effects of political connections on corporate bailouts during the 2008–2009 US financial crisis

Public Choice ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vuk Vukovic
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
Political Connections ◽  
Troubled Asset Relief Program ◽  
Top Executives ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Relief Program

AbstractIn 2008, as the financial crisis unfolded in the United States, the banking industry elevated its lobbying and campaign spending activities. By the end of 2008, and during 2009, the biggest political spenders, on average, received the largest bailout packages. Is that relationship causal? In this paper, I examine the effect of political connections on the allocation of funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to the US financial services industry during the 2008–2009 financial crisis. I find that TARP recipients that lobbied the government, donated to political campaigns, or whose top executives had direct connections to politics received better bailout deals. I estimate regression discontinuity design and instrumental variable models to uncover how election outcomes for politicians in close races affected the distribution of bailout funds for connected firms. The results do not imply that some banks were deliberately favored over others, just that favored banks benefited because of their proximity to the right people in power. If being politically connected matters in general, in times of crisis it matters even more.

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