Effects of European Debt Crisis and Prospects of Euro Zone

Author(s):  
D. Kondratov

The European economy is just recovering after the crisis and is facing numerous problems that prevent the transition to a sustainable economic growth. Among the most significant problems are massive fiscal deficits and public debt. This imposes the risks of default and can cause a collapse of national economies’ encouragement programs. Large-scale foreign trade imbalances threaten the already shaky stability of the global monetary and financial system. Huge amounts of speculative capital contribute to the formation of price bubbles in the domestic and international stock and commodity markets. It is obvious that these difficulties are systemic by their nature. In order to overcome them the leading European states have to undertake decisive and concerted measures for the restructuring of the existing economic order. An understanding of the respective need is currently declared at the highest political level, including the European Central Bank and G20. In practice, however, the efforts so far are concentrated mainly on the soft and cautious reform of the regulation of financial markets in the countries of the Eurozone. Implementation of the steps to create a more reliable and secure European financial and economic architecture is restrained by dramatic differences in the interests of the leading countries. According to most analysts, efforts to overcome this are likely to fail in the coming years. The failure to address fundamental problems of the financial crisis increases the uncertainty of the development of the European economy and creates the preconditions for new crisis situations.

1998 ◽  
Vol 165 ◽  
pp. 109-114
Author(s):  
John Arrowsmith

The decision by the EU Council of Heads of State or of Government at the beginning of May, that eleven Member States would form an Economic and Monetary Union on 1 January 1999, occasioned little surprise: financial markets and economic commentators had become increasingly convinced over the preceding months that EMU would start on time with a membership extending beyond the six ‘core’ countries—France, Germany, the Benelux countries and Austria—to include also Finland, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain. What was not widely expected was that the ECOFIN and HoSoG Councils on 1–2 May appear to have spent little time debating the economic case for including each of the eleven countries but to have been preoccupied instead with a heated political row about who should be appointed President of the European Central Bank.This note assesses the possible consequences that this cavalier approach to the vital question of membership of monetary union might have for the conduct of policy in Stage 3 and the future viability of EMU. It examines the economic evidence that had been presented to the Councils to see whether their judgement that the economies of all eleven countries are sufficiently convergent is warranted. It also considers whether the unseemly compromise through which the dispute about the ECB Presidency was resolved will prejudice the political independence of the ECB in its conduct of monetary policy.


2020 ◽  
pp. 41-49
Author(s):  
M.V. Ershov

A large-scale collapse in global financial markets, which has been brewing for many years and which was triggered by the pandemic of the beginning of 2020, generates crisis processes in the world economy. The spread of the coronavirus has led to a significant decline in economic activity around the world. National States are once again forced to urgently develop and implement anti-crisis programs. A wide and financially voluminous range of measures aimed at ensuring both supply and effective demand in national economies is involved. Russia has also introduced large-scale, though relatively modest, measures to support the economy and the population. Based on these realities and based on his research work on the use of anti-crisis financial mechanisms, the author justifies the conclusion that: a) this support is insufficient; b) to ensure the normal reproduction of the population and the resumption of economic growth, it must be increased and activated.


2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 80
Author(s):  
Saad A. Aljloud

The financial markets have been beset by large-scale market manipulations since its beginning. This article focuses on comparing the laws of market manipulation of the US and Islamic law and how Muslim countries get benefits from US regulation of financial markets. This will investigate market manipulation from US law and Islamic perspective. This article will present a comprehensive step review of the Islamic law regarding market manipulation. Also this article begins with a snapshot of financial markets in US law and the meaning of manipulation. Understanding more about the way the jurisprudence was designed to adapt to the existing laws and institutions of the Islamic Shariah will help place some of the unique features in Islamic law of financial markets. We will discuss the Islamic doctrine ḥisbah (حسبة‎) which means ‘accountability’ or a duty to ‘enjoin good and forbid wrong’ and how it benefits Islamic financial markets. Finally we will discuss whether principles of market manipulation, supplemented in Islamic law, have attained their purpose.


2005 ◽  
pp. 100-116
Author(s):  
S. Avdasheva ◽  
A. Shastitko

The article is devoted to the analysis of the draft law "On Protection of Competition", which must substitute the laws "On Competition and Limitation of Monopolistic Activity on Commodity Markets" and "On Protection of Competition on the Financial Services Market". The innovations enhancing the quality of Russian competition law and new norms providing at least ambiguous effects on antimonopoly regulation are considered. The first group of positive measures includes unification of competition norms for commodity and financial markets, changes of criteria and the scale of control of economic concentrations, specification of conditions, where norms are applied "per se" and according to the "rule of reason", introduction of rules that can prevent the restriction of competition by the executive power. The interpretation of the "collective dominance" concept and certain rules devoted to antimonopoly control of state aid are in the second group of questionable steps.


2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matti Raudjjrv ◽  
Manfred O. E. Hennies

Author(s):  
Ravi Roy ◽  
Thomas D. Willett

The size and scope of financial sectors throughout the world have grown exponentially in tandem with the rise of globalization and increased capital mobility. The terms “economic globalization” and “financialization” are often discussed as inextricably related phenomena. Although the rapid increase in the number and variety of financial services and products during the past four decades has helped spur economic growth and create wealth on an unprecedented scale, the devastating fallout from the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, and the economic turbulence that followed, demonstrates how poorly managed financial sectors can simultaneously cause enormous pain. This chapter argues that if the opportunities created by economic globalization and financialization are to be maximized, while at the same tempering volatile financial markets, then the global financial system (and the national economies connected with it) must be fundamentally restructured. A number of ways that should be taken under consideration are discussed.


2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessio Anzuini

Abstract The Federal Reserve responded to the great financial crisis deploying new monetary policy tools, the most notable of which being the expansion of its balance sheet. In a recent paper, Weale, M., and T. Wieladek. 2016. “What Are the Macroeconomic Effects of Asset Purchases?” Journal of Monetary Economics 79 (C): 81–93 show that the asset purchases were effective in stimulating economic activity as well as inflation and asset prices. Here I show that their results are state dependent: large scale asset purchase are effective only when financial markets are impaired. Financial markets are under stress when the effective risk-bearing capacity of the financial sector is drastically reduced, i.e. when the excess bond premium (EBP) of Gilchrist, S., and E. Zakrajšek. 2012. “Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations.” The American Economic Review 102 (4): 1692–72 exceed a certain threshold. Using an estimated threshold vector autoregressive model conditional on the EBP regime, I show that an increase in the balance sheet has expansionary effects on GDP and inflation when EBP is high, but not when it is low (as its effects become mostly insignificant). I argue that the high EBP can be interpreted as a proxy of market dis-functioning so that only when this channel of transmission is on, the unconventional policy is particularly effective. This suggests that models of transmission of unconventional policies, based on asset purchases, should focus also on the market functioning channel and not only on the portfolio balance one.


2021 ◽  
pp. 253-265
Author(s):  
MILOŠ PJANIĆ ◽  
MIRELA MITRAŠEVIĆ

In the process of globalization, the importance of foreign direct investment has changed significantly, because today they represent one of the most important factors of competitiveness, development and application of new technology, education, innovation and economic development. As a significant form of financing national economies, foreign direct investment is a form of investment that is realized outside the home country, where one of the most important goals of both developed and especially developing countries is to attract as much foreign direct investment. A large number of developing countries, including Serbia, have liberalized restrictions on foreign investment and free trade in the last two decades, liberalized national financial markets and begun privatization processes. Due to numerous problems and consequences of economic crises they have faced, many developing countries, as well as Serbia, view foreign direct investment as one of the most important factors for stimulating trade, employment growth, openness of national economies, and establishing overall macroeconomic stability. The aim of this paper is to point out the importance and dynamics of foreign direct investments in Serbia, as well as the key incentives for their attraction. Also, in addition to the theoretical review of foreign direct investments, the effects of foreign direct investments are presented in the paper.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi-Hsi Lee ◽  
Ming-Hua Hsieh ◽  
Weiyu Kuo ◽  
Chenghsien Jason Tsai

PurposeIt is quite possible that financial institutions including life insurance companies would encounter turbulent situations such as the COVID-19 pandemic before policies mature. Constructing models that can generate scenarios for major assets to cover abrupt changes in financial markets is thus essential for the financial institution's risk management.Design/methodology/approachThe key issues in such modeling include how to manage the large number of risk factors involved, how to model the dynamics of chosen or derived factors and how to incorporate relations among these factors. The authors propose the orthogonal ARMA–GARCH (autoregressive moving-average–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) approach to tackle these issues. The constructed economic scenario generation (ESG) models pass the backtests covering the period from the beginning of 2018 to the end of May 2020, which includes the turbulent situations caused by COVID-19.FindingsThe backtesting covering the turbulent period of COVID-19, along with fan charts and comparisons on simulated and historical statistics, validates our approach.Originality/valueThis paper is the first one that attempts to generate complex long-term economic scenarios for a large-scale portfolio from its large dimensional covariance matrix estimated by the orthogonal ARMA–GARCH model.


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