A New Framework to Evaluate Urban Design Using Urban Microclimatic Modelling in Future Climatic Conditions

Building more energy efficient and sustainable urban areas that will both mitigate the effect of climate change and adapt for the future climate, requires the development new tools and methods that can help urban planners, architect and communities achieve this goal. In the current study, we designed a workflow that links different methodologies developed separately, to derive the energy consumption of a university school campus for the future. Three different scenarios for typical future years (2039, 2069, 2099) were run as well as a renovation scenario (Minergie-P). We analyse the impact of climate change on the heating and cooling demand of the buildings and determined the relevance of the accounting of the local climate in this particular context. The results from the simulations showed that in the future there will a constant decrease in the heating demand while for the cooling demand there will be a significant increase. It was further demonstrated that when the local climate was taken into account there was an even higher rise in the cooling demand but also that the proposed renovations were not sufficient to design resilient buildings. We then discuss the implication of this work on the simulation of building energy consumption at the neighbourhood scale and the impact of future local climate on energy system design. We finally give a few perspective regarding improved urban design and possible pathways for the future urban areas.

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A New Framework to Evaluate Urban Design Using Urban Microclimatic Modelling in Future Climatic Conditions

10.20944/preprints201802.0109.v2 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Dasaraden Mauree ◽

Silvia Coccolo ◽

Amarasinghage Tharindu Perera ◽

Vahid Nik ◽

Jean-Louis Scartezzini ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Energy Consumption ◽

Urban Design ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Energy System ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Local Climate ◽

Heating And Cooling ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

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Long-Term Prediction of Weather for Analysis of Residential Building Energy Consumption in Australia

Energies ◽

10.3390/en14164805 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (16) ◽

pp. 4805

Author(s):

Shu Chen ◽

Zhengen Ren ◽

Zhi Tang ◽

Xianrong Zhuo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Energy Consumption ◽

Residential Building ◽

Building Energy ◽

Space Heating ◽

Building Energy Consumption ◽

Climate Zones ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Heating And Cooling ◽

The Impact

Globally, buildings account for nearly 40% of the total primary energy consumption and are responsible for 20% of the total greenhouse gas emissions. Energy consumption in buildings is increasing with the increasing world population and improving standards of living. Current global warming conditions will inevitably impact building energy consumption. To address this issue, this report conducted a comprehensive study of the impact of climate change on residential building energy consumption. Using the methodology of morphing, the weather files were constructed based on the typical meteorological year (TMY) data and predicted data generated from eight typical global climate models (GCMs) for three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) from 2020 to 2100. It was found that the most severe situation would occur in scenario RCP8.5, where the increase in temperature will reach 4.5 °C in eastern Australia from 2080–2099, which is 1 °C higher than that in other climate zones. With the construction of predicted weather files in 83 climate zones all across Australia, ten climate zones (cities)—ranging from heating-dominated to cooling-dominated regions—were selected as representative climate zones to illustrate the impact of climate change on heating and cooling energy consumption. The quantitative change in the energy requirements for space heating and cooling, along with the star rating, was simulated for two representative detached houses using the AccuRate software. It could be concluded that the RCP scenarios significantly affect the energy loads, which is consistent with changes in the ambient temperature. The heating load decreases for all climate zones, while the cooling load increases. Most regions in Australia will increase their energy consumption due to rising temperatures; however, the energy requirements of Adelaide and Perth would not change significantly, where the space heating and cooling loads are balanced due to decreasing heating and increasing cooling costs in most scenarios. The energy load in bigger houses will change more than that in smaller houses. Furthermore, Brisbane is the most sensitive region in terms of relative space energy changes, and Townsville appears to be the most sensitive area in terms of star rating change in this study. The impact of climate change on space building energy consumption in different climate zones should be considered in future design strategies due to the decades-long lifespans of Australian residential houses.

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A Simplistic Approach for Assessing Hydroclimatic Vulnerability of Lakes and Reservoirs with Regulated Superficial Outflow

Hydrology ◽

10.3390/hydrology6030061 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 6 (3) ◽

pp. 61 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Kleoniki Demertzi ◽

Dimitris Papadimos ◽

Vassilis Aschonitis ◽

Dimitris Papamichail

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Drainage Basin ◽

Management Strategies ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Modified Model ◽

Natural Lakes ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

This study proposes a simplistic model for assessing the hydroclimatic vulnerability of lakes/reservoirs (LRs) that preserve their steady-state conditions based on regulated superficial discharge (Qd) out of the LR drainage basin. The model is a modification of the Bracht-Flyr et al. method that was initially proposed for natural lakes in closed basins with no superficial discharge outside the basin (Qd = 0) and under water-limited environmental conditions {mean annual ratio of potential/reference evapotranspiration (ETo) versus rainfall (P) greater than 1}. In the proposed modified approach, an additional Qd function is included. The modified model is applied using as a case study the Oreastiada Lake, which is located inside the Kastoria basin in Greece. Six years of observed data of P, ETo, Qd, and lake topography were used to calibrate the modified model based on the current conditions. The calibrated model was also used to assess the future lake conditions based on the future climatic projections (mean conditions of 2061-2080) derived by 19 general circulation models (GCMs) for three cases of climate change (three cases of Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The modified method can be used as a diagnostic tool in water-limited environments for analyzing the superficial discharge changes of LRs under different climatic conditions and to support the design of new management strategies for mitigating the impact of climate change on (a) flooding conditions, (b) hydroelectric production, (c) irrigation/industrial/domestic use and (d) minimum ecological flows to downstream rivers.

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Climate Change and Building Energy Consumption: A Review of the Impact of Weather Parameters Influenced by Climate Change on Household Heating and Cooling Demands of Buildings

European Journal of Sustainable Development ◽

10.14207/ejsd.2021.v10n2p1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 1

Author(s):

Hassan Bazazzadeh ◽

Adam Nadolny ◽

Seyedeh Sara Hashemi Safaei

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Energy Consumption ◽

Industrial Development ◽

Building Sector ◽

Total Energy Consumption ◽

Heating And Cooling ◽

Urban Energy ◽

The Impact

The growth of urban population as the result of economic and industrial development has changed our place of living from a prosperous place to where the resources are carelessly consumed. On the other hand, long-term climate change, i.e. global warming, has had adverse impact on our resources. Certain resources are on the verge of depletion as the consequence of climate change and inconsiderate consumption of resources, unless serious measures are implemented immediately. The building sector, whose share in the municipal energy consumption is considerably high, is a key player that may successfully solve the problem. This paper aims to study the effects of climate change on the energy consumption of buildings and analyze its magnitude to increase the awareness of how construction can reduce the overall global energy consumption. A descriptive-analytical method has been applied to analyze valid models of energy consumption according to different scenarios and to interpret the conditions underlying current and future energy consumption of buildings. The results clearly show that the energy consumption in the building sector increasingly depends on the cooling demand. With that being said, we can expect the reduction of overall energy consumption of buildings in regions with high heating demands, whereas rising the energy consumption in buildings is expected in regions with high cooling demand. To conclude, the long-term climate change (e.g. global warming) underlies the increased energy consumption for the cooling demand whose share in total energy consumption of buildings much outweighs the heating demand. Therefore, to conserve our resources, urban energy planning and management should focus on working up a proper framework of guidelines on how to mitigate the cooling loads in the energy consumption patterns of buildings.

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Is Smart Growth a smart adaptation strategy?: Examining Ontario's proposed growth under climate change

Ekistics and the new habitat - India and Jugaad: The Impact of Innovation by the Resilient Indian Mind on Habitat ◽

10.53910/26531313-e200471424-426224 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 71 (424-426) ◽

pp. 57-62

Author(s):

Brad Bass

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Energy Consumption ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Green Roof ◽

Smart Growth ◽

Green Roofs ◽

Adaptation Strategy ◽

University Of Toronto ◽

Conducting Research ◽

The Impact

The author is a member of Environment Canada's Adaptation and Impact Research Group, located in the Centre for Environment at the University of Toronto. His primary research interests include the use of ecological technologies in adapting urban areas to atmospheric change, the impacts of climate change on the energy sector, and the characteristics of adaptable systems. His current work on ecological technologies includes green roofs, vertical gardens and living machines. Dr Bass has been involved in two major projects, in Ottawa and Toronto, to evaluate the impact of green roofs on the urban heat island, energy consumption, stormwater runoff and water quality. Currently, Dr Bass is conducting research on integrating green roof infrastructure with other vegetation strategies at a community scale, simulating the impact of a green roof on the energy consumption of individual buildings.

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Climate change impact on photovoltaic potential in Poland

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13850 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Malgorzata Zdunek

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Fossil Fuels ◽

Climate Models ◽

Energy System ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Suburban Areas ◽

Pv Module ◽

Change Impact ◽

Module Performance ◽

The Impact

Due to global warming and the worldwide depletion of fossil fuel resources, there is a growing need to transform the energy system toward greater use of renewable sources. In Poland, poor air quality constitutes an additional argument for the necessity of such transition. High levels of pollutants concentrations in many locations, especially in urban and suburban areas are caused by emissions from individual heating systems running on fossil fuels. Data from recent years show that renewable generation forms the largest share of the total generation mix in Europe. Regarding new installation, solar and wind energy dominate renewable capacity expansion, jointly accounting for example in 2019 for 90% of all net renewable additions. However, along with the increase in the penetration of these energy sources also increases the sensitivity of the power system to weather and climatic conditions.The study presents the impact of climate change up to the year 2100 on the photovoltaic power generation potential (Pvpot) in Poland. For determination of Pvpot index a set of high-resolution climate models projections, made available within the EURO-CORDEX initiative was used. Maps showing spatial distribution of absolute values of Pvpot in future climate (30-year average for 2071-2100) and relative changes with respect to current climate (30-year average for 2006-2035) are presented, separately for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario. The influence of meteorological conditions (temperature, wind and solar radiation) on PV module performance is taken into account by applying two different formula (Ciulla et. al, 2014 and Davy and Troccoli, 2012). Furthermore, two options for module orientation are considered: horizontal and inclined at an optimal angle.

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Indicators Framework for Sustainable Urban Design

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11111143 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (11) ◽

pp. 1143

Author(s):

Andrea López Chao ◽

Amparo Casares Gallego ◽

Vicente Lopez-Chao ◽

Alberto Alvarellos

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Urban Design ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Urban Environments ◽

Significant Feature ◽

Global Approach ◽

Climate Change Research ◽

Object Of Study ◽

The Impact ◽

Made In

Climate change and sustainability have recently been object of study due to the impact on the planet and on human activity of the first and the benefits that could derive from the efficiency of the second. Particularly, urban environments are locations that represent a high percentage of emissions of gases, waste, resources use and so forth. However, they are places where great changes can be made, in an attempt to accomplish the urgent challenge to adapt to current and projected rates of climate change. Research has shown that a fruitful approach to urban sustainability is to describe indicators that measure the effectiveness of current processes of urban infrastructures, analyze areas in need of improvement and measure the effect of any actions taken. The significant feature of this research relies on its global approach, considering both major worldwide used and less widely-spread frameworks and the analysis of the 32 selected tools and guidelines, including over 2000 indicators. The result is a proposed structure of 14 categories and 48 indicators, easily applicable in urban areas, that tries to fulfill basic aspects to obtain a general diagnosis of the sustainable nature of the urban environment, which can serve as support to detect the strongest and weakest areas in terms of their sustainability.

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Planheat Tool

Advances in Civil and Industrial Engineering - Handbook of Research on Developing Smart Cities Based on Digital Twins ◽

10.4018/978-1-7998-7091-3.ch005 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 84-105

Author(s):

Matteo Porta

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Urban Areas ◽

European Population ◽

Low Carbon ◽

Energy Technologies ◽

Heating And Cooling ◽

Collective Creativity ◽

New Energy ◽

Eu Project ◽

The Impact

More than two thirds of the European population live in urban areas. Cities are places where both problems emerge and solutions are found. They are fertile ground for science and technology, for culture and innovation, for individual and collective creativity, and for mitigating the impact of climate change. Cities are communities where to study environmental, social, economic impact of new energy technologies. A tool to unlock the planning potential of EU cities has been developed thanks to the collaboration of different EU research centers, SMEs and consultancy firms led by Rina Consulting involved in Planheat EU Project (funded by the European Union's H2020 Programme under grant agreement 723757). PLANHEAT Consortium developed and validated an integrated and easy-to-use, GIS-based, and open source tool to support local authorities in selecting, simulating and comparing alternative low carbon and economically sustainable scenarios for heating and cooling.

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How Climate Change Affects the Building Energy Consumptions Due to Cooling, Heating, and Electricity Demands of Italian Residential Sector

Energies ◽

10.3390/en13020410 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 13 (2) ◽

pp. 410 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Francesco Mancini ◽

Gianluigi Lo Basso

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Energy Consumption ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Critical Role ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Slight Reduction ◽

Air Conditioners ◽

Residential Sector ◽

Heating And Cooling

Climate change affects the buildings’ performance, significantly influencing energy consumption, as well as the indoor thermal comfort. As a consequence, the growing outdoor environmental temperatures entail a slight reduction in heating consumption and an increase in cooling consumption, with different overall effects depending on the latitudes. This document focuses attention on the Italian residential sector, considering the current and reduced meteorological data, in anticipation of future climate scenarios. According to a sample of 419 buildings, referring to the climatic conditions of Milan, Florence, Rome, and Naples, the heating and cooling needs are calculated by a simplified dynamic model, in current and future conditions. The effects of the simplest climate adaptation measure, represented by the introduction of new air conditioners, have been also evaluated. The simulations results show an important reduction in complex energy consumption (Milan −6%, Florence −22%, Rome −25%, Naples −30%), due to the greater incidence of heating demand in the Italian context. However, the increase in air conditioning electrical consumption over the hot season (Milan +11%, Florence +20%, Rome +19%, Naples +16%) can play a critical role for the electrical system; for that reason, the introduction of photovoltaic arrays as a compensatory measure have been analysed.

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Effect of Climate Change and Occupant Behaviour on the Environmental Impact of the Heating and Cooling Systems of a Real Apartment. A Parametric Study through Life Cycle Assessment

Energies ◽

10.3390/en14248356 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (24) ◽

pp. 8356

Author(s):

Gianmarco Fajilla ◽

Emiliano Borri ◽

Marilena De Simone ◽

Luisa F. Cabeza ◽

Luís Bragança

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Life Cycle Assessment ◽

Life Cycle ◽

Energy Consumption ◽

Environmental Impact ◽

Cooling System ◽

Occupant Behaviour ◽

Cooling Systems ◽

Heating And Cooling ◽

The Impact

Climate change has a strong influence on the energy consumption of buildings, affecting both the heating and cooling demand in the actual and future scenario. In this paper, a life cycle assessment (LCA) was performed to evaluate the influence of both the occupant behaviour and the climate change on the environmental impact of the heating and cooling systems of an apartment located in southern Italy. The analysis was conducted using IPCC GWP and ReCiPe indicators as well as the Ecoinvent database. The influence of occupant behaviour was included in the analysis considering different usage profiles during the operational phase, while the effect of climate change was considered by varying the weather file every thirty years. The adoption of the real usage profiles showed that the impact of the systems was highly influenced by the occupant behaviour. In particular, the environmental impact of the heating system appeared more influenced by the operation hours, while that of the cooling system was more affected by the natural ventilation schedules. Furthermore, the influence of climate change demonstrated that more attention has to be dedicated to the cooling demand that in the future years will play an ever-greater role in the energy consumption of buildings.

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