Climate change impact on photovoltaic potential in Poland

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malgorzata Zdunek
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Suburban Areas ◽  
Pv Module ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Module Performance ◽  
The Impact

<p>Due to global warming and the worldwide depletion of fossil fuel resources, there is a growing need to transform the energy system toward greater use of renewable sources. In Poland, poor air quality constitutes an additional argument for the necessity of such transition. High levels of pollutants concentrations in many locations, especially in urban and suburban areas are caused by emissions from individual heating systems running on fossil fuels.</p><p><span> Data from recent years show </span><span>that renewable generation forms the largest share of the total generation mix in Europe</span><span>. </span><span>Regarding new installation, solar and wind energy dominate renewable </span><span>capacity expansion, jointly accounting for example in 2019 for 90% of all net renewable additions.</span><span> However, along with the increase in the penetration of these energy sources also increases the sensitivity of the power system to weather and climatic conditions.</span></p><p>The study presents the impact of climate change up to the year 2100 on the photovoltaic power generation potential (Pvpot) in Poland. For determination of Pvpot index a set of high-resolution climate models projections, made available within the EURO-CORDEX initiative was used. Maps showing spatial distribution of absolute values of Pvpot in future climate (30-year average for 2071-2100) and relative changes with respect to current climate (30-year average for 2006-2035) are presented, separately for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario. The influence of meteorological conditions (temperature, wind and solar radiation) on PV module performance is taken into account by applying two different formula (Ciulla et. al, 2014 and Davy and Troccoli, 2012). Furthermore, two options for module orientation are considered: horizontal and inclined at an optimal angle.</p>

scholarly journals A New Framework to Evaluate Urban Design Using Urban Microclimatic Modelling in Future Climatic Conditions

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dasaraden Mauree ◽  
Silvia Coccolo ◽  
Dasun Perera ◽  
Vahid Nik ◽  
Jean-Louis Scartezzini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Urban Design ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Heating And Cooling ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Building more energy efficient and sustainable urban areas that will both mitigate the effect of climate change and adapt for the future climate, requires the development new tools and methods that can help urban planners, architect and communities achieve this goal. In the current study, we designed a workflow that links different methodologies developed separately, to derive the energy consumption of a university school campus for the future. Three different scenarios for typical future years (2039, 2069, 2099) were run as well as a renovation scenario (Minergie-P). We analyse the impact of climate change on the heating and cooling demand of the buildings and determined the relevance of the accounting of the local climate in this particular context. The results from the simulations showed that in the future there will a constant decrease in the heating demand while for the cooling demand there will be a significant increase. It was further demonstrated that when the local climate was taken into account there was an even higher rise in the cooling demand but also that the proposed renovations were not sufficient to design resilient buildings. We then discuss the implication of this work on the simulation of building energy consumption at the neighbourhood scale and the impact of future local climate on energy system design. We finally give a few perspective regarding improved urban design and possible pathways for the future urban areas.

scholarly journals Assessing climate change impact on the hydropower potential of the Bamboi catchment (Black Volta, West Africa)

2021 ◽  
Vol 384 ◽  
pp. 349-354
Author(s):  
Yacouba Yira ◽  
Tariro Cynthia Mutsindikwa ◽  
Aymar Yaovi Bossa ◽  
Jean Hounkpè ◽  
Seyni Salack
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Hydropower Generation ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This study evaluates the impact of future climate change (CC) on the hydropower generation potential of the Bamboi catchment (Black Volta) in West Africa using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (HBV light) and regional climate models (RCMs)–global climate models (GCMs). Two climate simulation datasets MPI-ESM-REMO (CORDEX) and GFDL-ESM2M-WRF (WASCAL) under RCP4.5 were applied to the validated hydrological model to simulate the catchment runoff. Based on reference and future simulated discharges, a theoretical 1.3 MW run of river hydro power plant was designed to evaluate the hydropower generation. Hydrological and hydropower generation changes were expressed as the relative difference between two future periods (2020–2049 and 2070–2099) and a reference period (1983–2005). The climate models' ensemble projected a mean annual precipitation increase by 8.8 % and 7.3 % and discharge increase by 11.4 % and 9.735 % for the 2020–2049 and 2070–2099 periods respectively (for bias corrected data). On the contrary an overall decrease of hydropower generation by −9.1 % and −8.4% for the 2020–2049 and 2070–2099 periods was projected respectively. The results indicate that projected increases in discharge should not solely be considered as leading to an increase in hydropower potential when prospecting climate change impact on hydropower.

scholarly journals South Africa's Journey to Climate Change Regulation: Earthlife Africa Johannesburg v Minister of Environmental Affairs 2017 2 All SA 519 (GP)

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
Helen Papacostantis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Energy Usage ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Economic Growth And Development ◽  
Rapid Changes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Current Energy

Concerns over climate change are increasingly reaching an urgent level. Many countries have begun focusing their efforts on mitigating its devastating impact. At the same time countries need to ensure their economic growth and development, thus calling for greater energy usage leading to increased greenhouse gas emissions. As the environment struggles to adapt to the rapid changes brought about by climate change, the effects are felt by the most vulnerable of the world's population. Reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have outlined the reasons and the effects of climate change providing actions required to mitigate these effects. Unfortunately developing countries, including South Africa, are the most affected. The current energy system in the country is primarily based on fossil fuels, which emit the greatest amount of greenhouse gases. To ensure that South Africa mitigates the impact, government needs to safeguard and promote sustainable development. To do this South Africa should weigh its energy mix in relation to the environment and the wellbeing of its citizens. A comprehensive and robust regulatory framework on climate change is required thus ensuring the achievement of South Africa's developmental goals well into the future and ensuring participation in the global effort against climate change. Earthlife Africa Johannesburg v Minister of Environmental Affairs 2017 2 All SA 519 (GP) signifies a good start towards the effective regulation of climate change in South Africa.

scholarly journals Derivation of RCM-driven potential evapotranspiration for hydrological climate change impact analysis in Great Britain: a comparison of methods and associated uncertainty in future projections

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 597-624 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Prudhomme ◽  
J. Williamson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Potential evapotranspiration PET is the water that would be lost by plants through evaporation and transpiration if water was not limited in the soil, and it is commonly used in conceptual hydrological modelling in the calculation of runoff production and hence river discharge. Future changes of PET are likely to be as important as changes in precipitation patterns in determining changes in river flows. However PET is not calculated routinely by climate models so it must be derived independently when the impact of climate change on river flow is to be assessed. This paper compares PET estimates from twelve equations of different complexity, driven by the Hadley Centre's HadRM3-Q0 model outputs representative of 1961–1990, with MORECS PET, a product used as reference PET in Great Britain. The results show that the FAO56 version of the Penman-Monteith equations reproduce best the spatial and seasonal variability of MORECS PET across GB when driven by HadRM3-Q0 estimates of relative humidity, total cloud, wind speed and linearly bias-corrected mean surface temperature. This suggests that potential biases in HadRM3-Q0 climate do not result in significant biases when the physically-based FAO56 equations are used. Percentage changes in PET between the 1961–1990 and 2041–2070 time slices were also calculated for each of the twelve PET equations. Results show a large variation in the magnitude (and sometimes direction) of changes estimated from different PET equations, with Turc, Jensen-Hense and calibrated Blaney-Criddle methods systematically projecting the largest increases across GB for all months and Priestley-Taylor, Makkink and Thornthwaite showing the smallest changes. We recommend the use of the FAO56 equation as when driven by HadRM3-Q0 climate data this best reproduces the reference MORECS PET across Great Britain for the reference period of 1961–1990. Further, the future changes of PET estimated by FAO56 are within the range of uncertainty defined by the ensemble of twelve PET equations. The changes show a clear northwest-southeast gradient of PET increase with largest (smallest) changes in the northwest in January (July and October) respectively. However, the range in magnitude of PET changes due to the choice of PET method shown in this study for Great Britain suggests that PET uncetainty is perhaps one of the greatest challenges facing the assessment of climate change impact on hydrology.

scholarly journals A New Framework to Evaluate Urban Design Using Urban Microclimatic Modelling in Future Climatic Conditions

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dasaraden Mauree ◽  
Silvia Coccolo ◽  
Amarasinghage Tharindu Perera ◽  
Vahid Nik ◽  
Jean-Louis Scartezzini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Urban Design ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Heating And Cooling ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Building more energy efficient and sustainable urban areas that will both mitigate the effect of climate change and adapt for the future climate, requires the development new tools and methods that can help urban planners, architect and communities achieve this goal. In the current study, we designed a workflow that links different methodologies developed separately, to derive the energy consumption of a university school campus for the future. Three different scenarios for typical future years (2039, 2069, 2099) were run as well as a renovation scenario (Minergie-P). We analyse the impact of climate change on the heating and cooling demand of the buildings and determined the relevance of the accounting of the local climate in this particular context. The results from the simulations showed that in the future there will a constant decrease in the heating demand while for the cooling demand there will be a significant increase. It was further demonstrated that when the local climate was taken into account there was an even higher rise in the cooling demand but also that the proposed renovations were not sufficient to design resilient buildings. We then discuss the implication of this work on the simulation of building energy consumption at the neighbourhood scale and the impact of future local climate on energy system design. We finally give a few perspective regarding improved urban design and possible pathways for the future urban areas.

scholarly journals Derivation of RCM-driven potential evapotranspiration for hydrological climate change impact analysis in Great Britain: a comparison of methods and associated uncertainty in future projections

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 1365-1377 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Prudhomme ◽  
J. Williamson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is the water that would be lost by plants through evaporation and transpiration if water was not limited in the soil, and it is commonly used in conceptual hydrological modelling in the calculation of runoff production and hence river discharge. Future changes of PET are likely to be as important as changes in precipitation patterns in determining changes in river flows. However PET is not calculated routinely by climate models so it must be derived independently when the impact of climate change on river flow is to be assessed. This paper compares PET estimates from 12 equations of different complexity, driven by the Hadley Centre's HadRM3-Q0 model outputs representative of 1961–1990, with MORECS PET, a product used as reference PET in Great Britain. The results show that the FAO56 version of the Penman–Monteith equations reproduces best the spatial and seasonal variability of MORECS PET across GB when driven by HadRM3-Q0 estimates of relative humidity, total cloud, wind speed and linearly bias-corrected mean surface temperature. This suggests that potential biases in HadRM3-Q0 climate do not result in significant biases when the physically based FAO56 equations are used. Percentage changes in PET between the 1961–1990 and 2041–2070 time slices were also calculated for each of the 12 PET equations from HadRM3-Q0. Results show a large variation in the magnitude (and sometimes direction) of changes estimated from different PET equations, with Turc, Jensen–Haise and calibrated Blaney–Criddle methods systematically projecting the largest increases across GB for all months and Priestley–Taylor, Makkink, and Thornthwaite showing the smallest changes. We recommend the use of the FAO56 equation as, when driven by HadRM3-Q0 climate data, this best reproduces the reference MORECS PET across Great Britain for the reference period of 1961–1990. Further, the future changes of PET estimated by FAO56 are within the range of uncertainty defined by the ensemble of 12 PET equations. The changes show a clear northwest–southeast gradient of PET increase with largest (smallest) changes in the northwest in January (July and October) respectively. However, the range in magnitude of PET changes due to the choice of PET method shown in this study for Great Britain suggests that PET uncertainty is a challenge facing the assessment of climate change impact on hydrology mostly ignored up to now.

Smart Cities and Smart Regulation

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anita Rønne
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Smart Cities ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Political Agenda ◽  
Smart Regulation

Increasing focus on sustainable societies and ‘smart cities’ due to emphasis on mitigation of climate change is simultaneous with ‘smart regulation’ reaching the forefront of the political agenda. Consequently, the energy sector and its regulation are undergoing significant innovation and change. Energy innovations include transition from fossil fuels to more renewable energy sources and application of new computer technology, interactively matching production with consumer demand. Smart cities are growing and projects are being initiated for development of urban areas and energy systems. Analysis from ‘Smart Cities Accelerator’, developed under the EU Interreg funding programme that includes Climate-KIC,——provides background for the focus on a smart energy system. Analysis ensures the energy supply systems support the integration of renewables with the need for new technologies and investments. ‘Smart’ is trendy, but when becoming ‘smart’ leads to motivation that is an important step towards mitigating climate change.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Climate Change Impact on Groundwater Recharge in Groundwater Regions in Taiwan

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1153
Author(s):  
Shih-Jung Wang ◽  
Cheng-Haw Lee ◽  
Chen-Feng Yeh ◽  
Yong Fern Choo ◽  
Hung-Wei Tseng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Groundwater Systems ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Assessment Results

Climate change can directly or indirectly influence groundwater resources. The mechanisms of this influence are complex and not easily quantified. Understanding the effect of climate change on groundwater systems can help governments adopt suitable strategies for water resources. The baseflow concept can be used to relate climate conditions to groundwater systems for assessing the climate change impact on groundwater resources. This study applies the stable baseflow concept to the estimation of the groundwater recharge in ten groundwater regions in Taiwan, under historical and climate scenario conditions. The recharge rates at the main river gauge stations in the groundwater regions were assessed using historical data. Regression equations between rainfall and groundwater recharge quantities were developed for the ten groundwater regions. The assessment results can be used for recharge evaluation in Taiwan. The climate change estimation results show that climate change would increase groundwater recharge by 32.6% or decrease it by 28.9% on average under the climate scenarios, with respect to the baseline quantity in Taiwan. The impact of climate change on groundwater systems may be positive. This study proposes a method for assessing the impact of climate change on groundwater systems. The assessment results provide important information for strategy development in groundwater resources management.

scholarly journals Application of SWAT in Hydrological Simulation of Complex Mountainous River Basin (Part II: Climate Change Impact Assessment)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1548
Author(s):  
Suresh Marahatta ◽  
Deepak Aryal ◽  
Laxmi Prasad Devkota ◽  
Utsav Bhattarai ◽  
Dibesh Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mountainous River

This study aims at analysing the impact of climate change (CC) on the river hydrology of a complex mountainous river basin—the Budhigandaki River Basin (BRB)—using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model that was calibrated and validated in Part I of this research. A relatively new approach of selecting global climate models (GCMs) for each of the two selected RCPs, 4.5 (stabilization scenario) and 8.5 (high emission scenario), representing four extreme cases (warm-wet, cold-wet, warm-dry, and cold-dry conditions), was applied. Future climate data was bias corrected using a quantile mapping method. The bias-corrected GCM data were forced into the SWAT model one at a time to simulate the future flows of BRB for three 30-year time windows: Immediate Future (2021–2050), Mid Future (2046–2075), and Far Future (2070–2099). The projected flows were compared with the corresponding monthly, seasonal, annual, and fractional differences of extreme flows of the simulated baseline period (1983–2012). The results showed that future long-term average annual flows are expected to increase in all climatic conditions for both RCPs compared to the baseline. The range of predicted changes in future monthly, seasonal, and annual flows shows high uncertainty. The comparative frequency analysis of the annual one-day-maximum and -minimum flows shows increased high flows and decreased low flows in the future. These results imply the necessity for design modifications in hydraulic structures as well as the preference of storage over run-of-river water resources development projects in the study basin from the perspective of climate resilience.

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