scholarly journals Frequency of compound hot-dry weather extremes has significantly increased in Australia since 1889

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian Collins
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Nonparametric Tests ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Grid Cells ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Spatial Homogeneity ◽  
Daily Weather Data

There is high confidence that climate change has increased the probability of concurrent temperature-precipitation extremes, changed their spatial-temporal variations, and affected the relationships between drivers of such natural hazards. However, the extent of such changes has been less investigated in Australia. Daily weather data (131 years, 1889-2019) at 700 grid cells (1◦ × 1◦) across Australia was obtained to calculate annual and seasonal mean daily maximum temperature (MMT) and total precipitation (TPR). A nonparametric multivariate copula framework was adopted to estimate the return period of compound hot-dry (CHD) events based on an ‘And’ hazard scenario (hotter than a threshold ‘And’ drier than a threshold). CHD extremes were defined as years with joint return periods of larger than 25 years. Mann-Kendall nonparametric tests was used to analyse trends in MMT and TPR as well as in the frequency of univariate and CHD extremes. A general cooling-wetting trend was observed over 1889-1989. Significant increasing trends were detected over 1990-2019 in the frequency and severity of hot extremes across the country while trends in dry extremes were mostly insignificant (and decreasing). Results showed a significant increase in the association between temperature and precipitation at various temporal scales. The frequency of CHD extremes was mostly stable over 1889-1989, but significantly increased between 1990 and 2019 at 44% of studied grid cells, mostly located in the north, south-east and south-west. Spatial homogeneity (i.e. connectedness) and propagation of extreme events from one grid cell to its neighbouring cells was investigated across Australia. It can be concluded that this connectedness has not significantly changed since 1889.

Analysis of the extreme heat events in Iran

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 418-432 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hojjatollah Yazdanpanah ◽  
Josef Eitzinger ◽  
Marina Baldi
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Hot Days

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the spatial and temporal variations of extreme hot days (H*) and heat wave frequencies across Iran. Design/methodology/approach The authors used daily maximum temperature (Tmax) data of 27 synoptic stations in Iran. These data were standardized using the mean and the standard deviation of each day of the year. An extreme hot day was defined when the Z score of daily maximum temperature of that day was equal or more than a given threshold fixed at 1.7, while a heat wave event was considered to occur when the Z score exceeds the threshold for at least three continuous days. According to these criteria, the annual frequency of extreme hot days and the number of heat waves were determined for all stations. Findings The trend analysis of H* shows a positive trend during the past two decades in Iran, with the maximum number of H* (110 cases) observed in 2010. A significant trend of the number of heat waves per year was also detected during 1991-2013 in all the stations. Overall, results indicate that Iran has experienced heat waves in recent years more often than its long-term average. There will be more frequent and intense hot days and heat waves across Iran until 2050, due to estimated increase of mean air temperature between 0.5-1.1 and 0.8-1.6 degree centigrade for Rcp2.6 and Rcp8.8 scenarios, respectively. Originality/value The trend analysis of hot days and heat wave frequencies is a particularly original aspect of this paper. It is very important for policy- and decision-makers especially in agriculture and health sectors of Iran to make some adaptation strategies for future frequent and intense hot days over Iran.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Historical CMIP6 Model Simulations and Future Projections of Temperature Over the Pan-Third Pole Region

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuewei Fan ◽  
Qingyun Duan ◽  
Chenwei Shen ◽  
Yi Wu ◽  
Chang Xing
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Extreme Temperatures

Abstract The Pan-Third Pole (PTP) region, which encompasses the Eurasian highlands and their surroundings, has experienced unprecedented, accelerated warming during the past decades. This study evaluates the performance of historical simulation runs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in capturing spatial patterns and temporal variations observed over the PTP region for mean and extreme temperatures. In addition, projected changes in temperatures under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) are also reported. Four indices were used to characterize changes in temperature extremes: the annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TXx), the annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TNn), and indices for the percentage of warm days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p). Results indicate that most CMIP6 models generally capture the characteristics of the observed mean and extreme temperatures over the PTP region, but there still are slight cold biases in the Tibetan Plateau. Future changes of mean and extreme temperatures demonstrate that a strong increase will occur for the entire PTP region during the twenty-first century under all four SSP scenarios. Between 2015 and 2099, ensemble area-averaged annual mean temperatures are projected to increase by 1.24°C/100 year, 3.28°C/100 year, 5.57°C/100 year, and 7.40°C/100 year for the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. For TXx and TNn, the most intense warming is projected in Central Asia. The greatest number of projected TX90p and TN90p will occur in the Tibetan Plateau and Southeast Asia subregions, respectively.

scholarly journals Climate Trends at a Hotspot of Chronic Kidney Disease of Unknown Causes in Nicaragua, 1973–2014

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 5418
Author(s):  
Zoe E. Petropoulos ◽  
Oriana Ramirez-Rubio ◽  
Madeleine K. Scammell ◽  
Rebecca L. Laws ◽  
Damaris Lopez-Pilarte ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Maximum Temperatures

An ongoing epidemic of chronic kidney disease of uncertain etiology (CKDu) afflicts large parts of Central America and is hypothesized to be linked to heat stress at work. Mortality rates from CKDu appear to have increased dramatically since the 1970s. To explore this relationship, we assessed trends in maximum and minimum temperatures during harvest months between 1973 and 2014 as well as in the number of days during the harvest season for which the maximum temperature surpassed 35 °C. Data were collected at a weather station at a Nicaraguan sugar company where large numbers of workers have been affected by CKDu. Monthly averages of the daily maximum temperatures between 1996 and 2014 were also compared to concurrent weather data from eight Automated Surface Observing System Network weather stations across Nicaragua. Our objectives were to assess changes in temperature across harvest seasons, estimate the number of days that workers were at risk of heat-related illness and compare daily maximum temperatures across various sites in Nicaragua. The monthly average daily maximum temperature during the harvest season increased by 0.7 °C per decade between 1973 and 1990. The number of days per harvest season with a maximum temperature over 35 °C increased by approximately five days per year between 1974 and 1990, from 32 days to 114 days. Between 1991 and 2013, the number of harvest days with a maximum temperature over 35 °C decreased by two days per year, and the monthly average daily maximum temperature decreased by 0.3 °C per decade. Comparisons with weather stations across Nicaragua demonstrate that this company is located in one of the consistently hottest regions of the country.

scholarly journals Spatial and temporal variation in weather events critical for boreal agriculture: I Elevated temperatures

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pirjo Peltonen-Sainio ◽  
Pentti Pirinen ◽  
Hanna M Mäkelä ◽  
Otto Hyvärinen ◽  
Erja Huusela-Veistola ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Production System ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Elevated Temperatures ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Animal Farming

 Variation in temperature challenges crop production and animal farming. Elevated temperatures are often harmful, though may also open opportunities at high latitudes. Impacts depend on the vulnerability of the object, production system and their resilience to climatic variability. The station-wise temperature observations from the Finnish Meteorological Institute for a time period of 54 years (1961‒2014) were interpolated to a regular 10 km × 10 km grid covering the whole country. Several successive time slices were used to measure the likelihood for: 1) elevated temperatures of a) ≥1 °C above normal for three weeks, b) ≥2 °C above normal for two weeks and c) ≥3 °C above normal for one week, and 2) heatwaves with daily maximum temperature >25 °C for: a) 5 days (short) or b) 14 days (long episode). We also estimated the likelihood of warm winds in the early growing season which may enhance pest migration. We found large spatial and temporal variations in the likelihoods of elevated temperatures with many impacts on crop production, animal farming and welfare. In fact, only 1 °C temperature elevation may already be harmful, though in some cases also beneficial depending on region and vulnerability or adaptation of the object and production system. Though we show only some examples of the potential impacts of temperature variation on high latitude agro-ecosystems, these data are valuable as such for much wider applications in agriculture and beyond that.

scholarly journals Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature over the Pan-Third Pole region

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuewei Fan ◽  
Qingyun Duan ◽  
Chenwei Shen ◽  
Yi Wu ◽  
Chang Xing
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Extreme Temperatures

AbstractThe Pan-Third Pole (PTP) region, which encompasses the Eurasian highlands and their surroundings, has experienced unprecedented, accelerated warming during the past decades. This study evaluates the performance of historical simulation runs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in capturing spatial patterns and temporal variations observed over the PTP region for mean and extreme temperatures. In addition, projected changes in temperatures under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) are also reported. Four indices were used to characterize changes in temperature extremes: the annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TXx), the annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TNn), and indices for the percentage of warm days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p). Results indicate that most CMIP6 models generally capture the characteristics of the observed mean and extreme temperatures over the PTP region, but there still are slight cold biases in the Tibetan Plateau. Future changes of mean and extreme temperatures demonstrate that a strong increase will occur for the entire PTP region during the twenty-first century under all four SSP scenarios. Between 2015 and 2099, ensemble area-averaged annual mean temperatures are projected to increase by 1.24 °C/100 year, 3.28 °C/100 year, 5.57 °C/100 year, and 7.40 °C/100 year for the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. For TXx and TNn, the most intense warming is projected in Central Asia. The greatest number of projected TX90p and TN90p will occur in the Southeast Asia and Tibetan Plateau, respectively.

At the Mercy of the Gods: Associations Between Weather, Physical Activity, and Sedentary Time in Children

2016 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 152-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucy Kate Lewis ◽  
Carol Maher ◽  
Kevin Belanger ◽  
Mark Tremblay ◽  
Jean-Philippe Chaput ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Mixed Model ◽  
Sedentary Time ◽  
Vigorous Physical Activity ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Cross Sectional

Objectives:This study investigated associations between weather conditions, physical activity, and sedentary time in primary school-aged children in Australia and Canada.Methods:Cross-sectional data on 9–11-year-old children from the Australian (n = 491) and Canadian (n = 524) sites of the International Study of Childhood Obesity, Lifestyle and the Environment were used. Minutes of daily moderate-to-vigorous-physical-activity (MVPA) and sedentary time were determined from 7-day, 24-h accelerometry (Actigraph GT3X+ triaxial accelerometer). Day-matched weather data (temperature, rainfall, snowfall, relative humidity, wind speed) were obtained from the closest weather station to participants’ schools. Covariates included parental highest education level, day type, sex, and BMI z-scores. Generalized mixed model analyses allowing for clustering of participants within schools were completed. Scatterplots with Loess curves were created for maximum temperature, MVPA, and sedentary time.Results:Daily maximum temperature was significantly associated with MVPA and sedentary time in Australia (MVPA p = .05, sedentary p = .01) and Canada (p < .001, p = .001). Rainfall was negatively associated with MVPA in Australia (p < .001) and positively associated with sedentary time in Canada (p = .02).Conclusions:MVPA and sedentary time appear to be optimal when the maximum temperature ranges between 20°C and 25°C in both countries. The findings have implications for study design and interpretation for surveillance and intervention studies.

scholarly journals Social media reveal ecoregional variation in how weather influences visitor behavior in U.S. National Park Service units

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily J. Wilkins ◽  
Peter D. Howe ◽  
Jordan W. Smith
Keyword(s):  
National Park ◽  
National Park Service ◽  
Spatial Behavior ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Daily Weather ◽  
Visitor Behavior ◽  
Park Service ◽  
The Impact

AbstractDaily weather affects total visitation to parks and protected areas, as well as visitors’ experiences. However, it is unknown if and how visitors change their spatial behavior within a park due to daily weather conditions. We investigated the impact of daily maximum temperature and precipitation on summer visitation patterns within 110 U.S. National Park Service units. We connected 489,061 geotagged Flickr photos to daily weather, as well as visitors’ elevation and distance to amenities (i.e., roads, waterbodies, parking areas, and buildings). We compared visitor behavior on cold, average, and hot days, and on days with precipitation compared to days without precipitation, across fourteen ecoregions within the continental U.S. Our results suggest daily weather impacts where visitors go within parks, and the effect of weather differs substantially by ecoregion. In most ecoregions, visitors stayed closer to infrastructure on rainy days. Temperature also affects visitors’ spatial behavior within parks, but there was not a consistent trend across ecoregions. Importantly, parks in some ecoregions contain more microclimates than others, which may allow visitors to adapt to unfavorable conditions. These findings suggest visitors’ spatial behavior in parks may change in the future due to the increasing frequency of hot summer days.

scholarly journals Joint Occurrence of Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Events over Canada

2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (9) ◽  
pp. 2148-2162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bárbara Tencer ◽  
Andrew Weaver ◽  
Francis Zwiers
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Joint Occurrence

AbstractThe occurrence of individual extremes such as temperature and precipitation extremes can have a great impact on the environment. Agriculture, energy demands, and human health, among other activities, can be affected by extremely high or low temperatures and by extremely dry or wet conditions. The simultaneous or proximate occurrence of both types of extremes could lead to even more profound consequences, however. For example, a dry period can have more negative consequences on agriculture if it is concomitant with or followed by a period of extremely high temperatures. This study analyzes the joint occurrence of very wet conditions and high/low temperature events at stations in Canada. More than one-half of the stations showed a significant positive relationship at the daily time scale between warm nights (daily minimum temperature greater than the 90th percentile) or warm days (daily maximum temperature above the 90th percentile) and heavy-precipitation events (daily precipitation exceeding the 75th percentile), with the greater frequencies found for the east and southwest coasts during autumn and winter. Cold days (daily maximum temperature below the 10th percentile) occur together with intense precipitation more frequently during spring and summer. Simulations by regional climate models show good agreement with observations in the seasonal and spatial variability of the joint distribution, especially when an ensemble of simulations was used.

scholarly journals Observed Trends in Indices of Daily Temperature Extremes in South America 1960–2000

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (23) ◽  
pp. 5011-5023 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. A. Vincent ◽  
T. C. Peterson ◽  
V. R. Barros ◽  
M. B. Marino ◽  
M. Rusticucci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South America ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Daily Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Increasing Trends

Abstract A workshop on enhancing climate change indices in South America was held in Maceió, Brazil, in August 2004. Scientists from eight southern countries brought daily climatological data from their region for a meticulous assessment of data quality and homogeneity, and for the preparation of climate change indices that can be used for analyses of changes in climate extremes. This study presents an examination of the trends over 1960–2000 in the indices of daily temperature extremes. The results indicate no consistent changes in the indices based on daily maximum temperature while significant trends were found in the indices based on daily minimum temperature. Significant increasing trends in the percentage of warm nights and decreasing trends in the percentage of cold nights were observed at many stations. It seems that this warming is mostly due to more warm nights and fewer cold nights during the summer (December–February) and fall (March–May). The stations with significant trends appear to be located closer to the west and east coasts of South America.

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