scholarly journals Regional Precipitation Trends Since 1500 Ce, Reconstructed from Calcite Sublayers of a Varved Mediterranean Lake Record (Central Pyrenees)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teresa Vegas-Vilarrúbia ◽  
Juan Pablo Corella ◽  
Javier Sigró ◽  
Valentí Rull ◽  
Isabel Dorado ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Temporal Structure ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Climate Records ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
Precipitation Trends ◽  
Central Pyrenees

The Mediterranean is one of the regions of the world where human-induced climate warming is expected to have large impacts on water and environmental resources. To predict shifts in the current climate system, more regional climate records, including seasonal-to-century scale variability spanning longer than the instrumental periods, are needed. To help fill this gap, we provide a reconstruction of autumn precipitation variations for the Central Pyrenees range since 1500 Common Era (CE) using the varved sediments of Lake Montcortès. To assess the suitability of the calcite sublayer width of the sediments of this lake as a proxy for precipitation anomalies, we performed an analysis and smoothing of the temporal structure of the width series, calibration of the new series with the available instrumental climate records, calculation of a transfer function and testing and comparison of the reconstructed series against available empirical data.The prediction model was statistically robust and showed that the climatic signal was captured in the calcite sublayers. The reconstruction provides the first estimations of regional autumn precipitation shifts in the Central Pyrenees at annual resolution, since 1500 CE. Pronounced interdecadal shifts in precipitation were noticeable; no increasing nor decreasing linear trends or periods of extreme precipitation events were identified. The reconstructed precipitation anomalies suggest a decrease in rainfall during the coldest phase within the coldest period of the Little Ice Age and also during the 20th century, probably associated to current Global Warming. Correlations between autumn precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, Western Mediterranean Oscillation and Southern Oscillation indices were weak to moderate. A potential relationship with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation pattern is suggested. The reconstructed autumn precipitation trends are coherent with other palaeohydrological reconstructions in similar Mediterranean settings, and consistent at a regional level.

scholarly journals Land surface albedo and vegetation feedbacks enhanced the millennium drought in south-east Australia

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 409-422 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason P. Evans ◽  
Xianhong Meng ◽  
Matthew F. McCabe
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Characteristics ◽  
Surface Precipitation ◽  
Vegetation Fraction ◽  
Vegetation Feedbacks ◽  
Millennium Drought ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies

Abstract. In this study, we have examined the ability of a regional climate model (RCM) to simulate the extended drought that occurred throughout the period of 2002 through 2007 in south-east Australia. In particular, the ability to reproduce the two drought peaks in 2002 and 2006 was investigated. Overall, the RCM was found to reproduce both the temporal and the spatial structure of the drought-related precipitation anomalies quite well, despite using climatological seasonal surface characteristics such as vegetation fraction and albedo. This result concurs with previous studies that found that about two-thirds of the precipitation decline can be attributed to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Simulation experiments that allowed the vegetation fraction and albedo to vary as observed illustrated that the intensity of the drought was underestimated by about 10 % when using climatological surface characteristics. These results suggest that in terms of drought development, capturing the feedbacks related to vegetation and albedo changes may be as important as capturing the soil moisture–precipitation feedback. In order to improve our modelling of multi-year droughts, the challenge is to capture all these related surface changes simultaneously, and provide a comprehensive description of land surface–precipitation feedback during the droughts development.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of large volcanic eruptions of the Last Millennium on Australian rainfall regimes

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Blake ◽  
Sophie C. Lewis ◽  
Allegra N. LeGrande
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Explosive Volcanism ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Explosive volcanism is an important natural climate forcing, impacting global surface temperatures and regional precipitation. Although previous studies have investigated aspects of the impact of tropical volcanism on various ocean-atmosphere systems and regional climate regimes, volcanic eruptions remain a poorly understood climate forcing and climatic responses are not well constrained. In this study, volcanic eruptions are explored in particular reference to Australian precipitation, and both the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using nine realisations of the Last Millennium (LM) with different time-evolving forcing combinations, from the NASA GISS ModelE2-R, the impact of the 6 largest tropical volcanic eruptions of this period are investigated. Overall, we find that volcanic aerosol forcing increased the likelihood of El Nino and positive IOD conditions for up to four years following an eruption, and resulted in positive precipitation anomalies over northwest (NW) and southeast (SE) Australia. Larger atmospheric sulfate loading coincides with more persistent positive IOD and El Nino conditions, enhanced positive precipitation anomalies over NW Australia, and dampened precipitation anomalies over SE Australia.

Climatic and ecological history of Pantepui and surrounding areas with biogeographical and evolutionary considerations

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valentí Rull ◽  
Encarni Montoya ◽  
Sandra nogué ◽  
Elisabet Safont ◽  
Teresa Vegas-Vilarrúbia
Keyword(s):  
Plant Communities ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Taxonomic Composition ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Temperature Sensitive ◽  
Holocene Thermal Maximum ◽  
Medieval Climatic Anomaly

This chapter reviews the available paleoecological information on Pantepui since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), in order to reconstruct the ecological dynamics that have led to the present configuration of plant communities and to unravel the potential environmental drivers involved, with emphasis on regional climate changes and fire. To date, no LGM sediments have been retrieved atop the tepuis, so the vegetation of these summits during the last glaciation remains unknown. Some lowland records suggest that cold LGM climates favored downward migration of temperature-sensitive tepuian species, which drove changes in the taxonomic composition of lowland forests. The available paleoecological record of Pantepui ranges from the early Holocene to the present. These records show two contrasting situations. Some tepui summits exhibit a long vegetation constancy extending back to the mid Holocene, whereas others document significant changes in sensitive species that have been associated with regional climatic events such as the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM), the latitudinal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, or recent climatic shifts such as the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA) or the Little Ice Age (LIA). This has been interpreted in terms of site’s sensitivity and it has been recommended to obtain past records preferably on elevational ecotones, where vertical migrations of species are more easily detected. During the last millennium, fire, most probably of anthropogenic origin and likely originated on the surrounding uplands, has been a major driver of vegetation change on some tepuis. These studies are useful both to understand the biodiversity and composition of present Pantepui plant communities and to test classical biogeographical and evolutionary hypotheses on the origin of biodiversity and endemism patterns.

scholarly journals Late-Holocene diatom community response to climate driven chemical changes in a small, subarctic lake, Northwest Territories, Canada

The Holocene ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 095968362110032
Author(s):  
Paul B Hamilton ◽  
Scott J Hutchinson ◽  
R Timothy Patterson ◽  
Jennifer M Galloway ◽  
Nawaf A Nasser ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Iron Age ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Natural Aging ◽  
Community Response ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Diatom Assemblages ◽  
Subarctic Lake ◽  
Over Time

The paleolimnological record of diatoms and climate, spanning the last 2800 years, was investigated in a small subarctic lake (Pocket Lake) that from AD 1948 to 2004 was contaminated by gold smelting waste. An age-depth model was constructed using a combination of 210Pb, 14C, and tephra to determine a 2800 year history of lake ontogeny (natural aging), biological diversity, and regional climate variability. Diatoms form six strong paleoecological assemblages over time in response to changes in local hydrological and sedimentological conditions (including metals). Selected environmental variables explained 28.8% of the variance in the diatom assemblages, with Fe, Ca, and sediment end member distribution being important indicators. The diatom assemblages correlated to the Iron Age Cold Epoch (2800–2300 cal BP), Roman Warm Period (2250–1610 cal BP), Dark Age Cold Period (1500–1050 cal BP), Medieval Climate Anomaly (ca. 1100–800 cal BP), and the Little Ice Age (800–200 cal BP). The disappearance of Staurosira venter highlights the change from the Iron Age Cold Epoch to the Roman Warm Period. After deposition of the White River Ash (833–850 CE; 1117–1100 cal BP), transition to circumneutral conditions was followed in tandem by a transition to planktic influenced communities. Ten discrete peaks of Cu, Pb, and Zn were observed and attributed to soluble mobility from catchment soils through enhanced seepage and spring snowmelt. The prominent metal spikes were aligned with increases in Brachysira neoexilis. Downward mobilization of arsenic and antimony from contaminated surficial sediments highlight the problem of post depositional industrial contamination of paleosediments. Results demonstrate that paleoclimatic changes in the region, modulated by solar radiation, impacted temperature and precipitation in the lake catchment, influencing temporal shifts in diatom ecology. Changes in diatom taxa richness provided valuable information on the relative influence of water quality (planktic taxa) and sediment input (benthic taxa). The diatom assemblage succession also provides evidence that natural aging over time has played a role in the ecological evolution of the lake.

scholarly journals Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 673-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Colmet-Daage ◽  
Emilia Sanchez-Gomez ◽  
Sophie Ricci ◽  
Cécile Llovel ◽  
Valérie Borrell Estupina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. The climate change impact on mean and extreme precipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed using high-resolution EuroCORDEX and MedCORDEX simulations. The focus is made on three regions, Lez and Aude located in France, and Muga located in northeastern Spain, and eight pairs of global and regional climate models are analyzed with respect to the SAFRAN product. First the model skills are evaluated in terms of bias for the precipitation annual cycle over historical period. Then future changes in extreme precipitation, under two emission scenarios, are estimated through the computation of past/future change coefficients of quantile-ranked model precipitation outputs. Over the 1981–2010 period, the cumulative precipitation is overestimated for most models over the mountainous regions and underestimated over the coastal regions in autumn and higher-order quantile. The ensemble mean and the spread for future period remain unchanged under RCP4.5 scenario and decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events are intensified over the three catchments with a smaller ensemble spread under RCP8.5 revealing more evident changes, especially in the later part of the 21st century.

The effect of climate change on urban drainage: an evaluation based on regional climate model simulations

2006 ◽  
Vol 54 (6-7) ◽  
pp. 9-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Grum ◽  
A.T. Jørgensen ◽  
R.M. Johansen ◽  
J.J. Linde
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Urban Drainage ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Rainfall Extremes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Precipitation Events

That we are in a period of extraordinary rates of climate change is today evident. These climate changes are likely to impact local weather conditions with direct impacts on precipitation patterns and urban drainage. In recent years several studies have focused on revealing the nature, extent and consequences of climate change on urban drainage and urban runoff pollution issues. This study uses predictions from a regional climate model to look at the effects of climate change on extreme precipitation events. Results are presented in terms of point rainfall extremes. The analysis involves three steps: Firstly, hourly rainfall intensities from 16 point rain gauges are averaged to create a rain gauge equivalent intensity for a 25 × 25 km square corresponding to one grid cell in the climate model. Secondly, the differences between present and future in the climate model is used to project the hourly extreme statistics of the rain gauge surface into the future. Thirdly, the future extremes of the square surface area are downscaled to give point rainfall extremes of the future. The results and conclusions rely heavily on the regional model's suitability in describing extremes at time-scales relevant to urban drainage. However, in spite of these uncertainties, and others raised in the discussion, the tendency is clear: extreme precipitation events effecting urban drainage and causing flooding will become more frequent as a result of climate change.

Anomalies of continental precipitation associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation: the role of moisture contribution from oceanic and terrestrial sources 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rogert Sorí ◽  
Raquel Nieto ◽  
Margarida L.R. Liberato ◽  
Luis Gimeno
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Two Phase ◽  
The North ◽  
Terrestrial Origin ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
June July

<p>The regional and global precipitation pattern is highly modulated by the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is considered the most important mode of climate variability on the planet. In this study was investigated the asymmetry of the continental precipitation anomalies during El Niño and La Niña. To do it, a Lagrangian approach already validated was used to determine the proportion of the total Lagrangian precipitation that is of oceanic and terrestrial origin. During both, El Niño and La Niña, the Lagrangian precipitation in regions such as the northeast of South America, the east and west coast of North America, Europe, the south of West Africa, Southeast Asia, and Oceania is generally determined by the oceanic component of the precipitation, while that from terrestrial origin provides a major percentage of the average Lagrangian precipitation towards the interior of the continents. The role of the moisture contribution to precipitation from terrestrial and oceanic origin was evaluated in regions with statistically significant precipitation anomalies during El Niño and La Niña. Two-phase asymmetric behavior of the precipitation was found in regions such the northeast of South America, South Africa, the north of Mexico, and southeast of the United States, etc. principally for December-January-February and June-July-August. For some of these regions was also calculated the anomalies of the precipitation from other datasets to confirm the changes. Besides, for these regions was calculated the anomaly of the Lagrangian precipitation, which agrees in all the cases with the precipitation change. For these regions, it was determined which component of the Lagrangian precipitation, whether oceanic or terrestrial, controlled the precipitation anomalies. A schematic figure represents the extent of the most important seasonal oceanic and terrestrial sources for each subregion during El Niño and La Niña.</p>

Ocean Salinity Aspects of the Ningaloo Niño

2021 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Yaru Guo ◽  
Yuanlong Li ◽  
Fan Wang ◽  
Yuntao Wei
Keyword(s):  
Fresh Water ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Salinity ◽  
Surface Salinity ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Ocean Salinity

AbstractNingaloo Niño – the interannually occurring warming episode in the southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO) – has strong signatures in ocean temperature and circulation and exerts profound impacts on regional climate and marine biosystems. Analysis of observational data and eddy-resolving regional ocean model simulations reveals that the Ningaloo Niño/Niña can also induce pronounced variability in ocean salinity, causing large-scale sea surface salinity (SSS) freshening of 0.15–0.20 psu in the SEIO during its warm phase. Model experiments are performed to understand the underlying processes. This SSS freshening is mutually caused by the increased local precipitation (~68%) and enhanced fresh-water transport of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF; ~28%) during Ningaloo Niño events. The effects of other processes, such as local winds and evaporation, are secondary (~18%). The ITF enhances the southward fresh-water advection near the eastern boundary, which is critical in causing the strong freshening (> 0.20 psu) near the Western Australian coast. Owing to the strong modulation effect of the ITF, SSS near the coast bears a higher correlation with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (0.57, 0.77, and 0.70 with Niño-3, Niño-4, and Niño-3.4 indices, respectively) than sea surface temperature (-0.27, -0.42, and -0.35) during 1993-2016. Yet, an idealized model experiment with artificial damping for salinity anomaly indicates that ocean salinity has limited impact on ocean near-surface stratification and thus minimal feedback effect on the warming of Ningaloo Niño.

scholarly journals Late Holocene environmental reconstructions and their implications on flood events, typhoon, and agricultural activities in NE Taiwan

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 1857-1869 ◽  
Author(s):  
L.-C. Wang ◽  
H. Behling ◽  
T.-Q. Lee ◽  
H.-C. Li ◽  
C.-A. Huh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Phase 1 ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Agricultural Activities ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Hydrological Conditions ◽  
Enso Events

Abstract. We reconstructed paleoenvironmental changes from a sediment archive of a lake in the floodplain of the Ilan Plain of NE Taiwan on multi-decadal resolution for the last ca. 1900 years. On the basis of pollen and diatom records, we evaluated past floods, typhoons, and agricultural activities in this area which are sensitive to the hydrological conditions in the western Pacific. Considering the high sedimentation rates with low microfossil preservations in our sedimentary record, multiple flood events were. identified during the period AD 100–1400. During the Little Ice Age phase 1 (LIA 1 – AD 1400–1620), the abundant occurrences of wetland plant (Cyperaceae) and diatom frustules imply less flood events under stable climate conditions in this period. Between AD 500 and 700 and the Little Ice Age phase 2 (LIA 2 – AD 1630–1850), the frequent typhoons were inferred by coarse sediments and planktonic diatoms, which represented more dynamical climate conditions than in the LIA 1. By comparing our results with the reconstructed changes in tropical hydrological conditions, we suggested that the local hydrology in NE Taiwan is strongly influenced by typhoon-triggered heavy rainfalls, which could be influenced by the variation of global temperature, the expansion of the Pacific warm pool, and the intensification of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events.

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