Modeling Human Behavior of Local Residents in the Aftermath of a Large Earthquake – Wide-Area Evacuation, Rescue and Firefighting in Densely Built-Up Wooden Residential Areas

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 188-197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takuya Oki ◽  
◽  
Toshihiro Osaragi

It is very important in disaster prevention planning to estimate the level of human damage after large earthquakes under various scenarios that takes into account the day of week, the time of the disaster, weather conditions, earthquake intensity, etc. There have been many previous studies based on the spatial characteristics of urban areas about evaluating protection against fires, evacuation risks, and the safety of evacuation routes to designated areas. However, no study so far has integrated models of property damage (building collapse, fire spread, and street blockage) and human behavior (rescue activities, firefighting activities, and wide-area evacuation behavior), and carries out simulations in order to analyze human damage in detail. In this paper, we present a survey of previous studies of the methods of evaluating urban-area characteristics, rescue and firefighting activities, and wide-area evacuation, all of which have been discussed as separate issues. We summarize the findings within the respective fields, their methods of evaluation and modeling, and identify their issues. Based on this survey, we point out that the construction of an integrated simulation model requires six important activities. They are to: 1) carry out evaluations on a microscopic scale at the block or street level; 2) use an evaluation index that allows a direct grasp of the expected level of human damage; 3) take into consideration many detailed and concrete disaster scenarios; 4) take into consideration the interactions among rescue participants, firefighting participants and wide-area evacuees, along with the effects of property damage; 5) incorporate the concept of time; and 6) set up comparative scenarios that allow the quantitative evaluation of the effects of various measures or policies. Therefore, it is necessary to construct a model based on the concept of multi-agent simulation (MAS).

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 478-488
Author(s):  
Takuya Oki ◽  
◽  
Toshihiro Osaragi ◽  
Yoho Sakamoto

Techniques for quickly and easily estimating wide-area damage are required to support various activities for reducing damage in the event of a large earthquake. In this paper, using a wide-area evacuation simulator, we estimate property damage and human casualties in 32 densely built-up wooden residential areas in Tokyo, assuming a large earthquake. Furthermore, the relationships among local urban environment, property damage, and human casualties are analyzed using multiple regression analysis.


2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 296-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toshihiro Osaragi ◽  
◽  
Takuya Oki

This article describes the development of a comprehensive simulation model that integrates property damages (building-collapse, fire-spreading, and street-blockage) and various activities (rescue activity, firefighting activity, and wide-area evacuation activity) by local residents in the event of a large earthquake. Using this model, we analyze the effect and risk of rescue and firefighting activities carried out by local residents under the assumption that a large earthquake directly hits the Tokyo area. Furthermore, we attempt to find new knowledge on the situations where there are many fatal casualties caused by people failing to evacuate, being trapped on streets, and so on.


Author(s):  
А.В. Терешкин ◽  
А.Л. Калмыкова ◽  
Т.А. Андрушко

Вертикальное озеленение с участием различных видов лиан в современных условиях имеет важное эстетическое и санитарно-гигиеническое значение. Особо актуально решение вопросов обогащения флоры городских территорий лианами в степных районах в связи с бедным видовым составом и резким ухудшением экологической ситуации. Объектами исследований являлись 7 видов лиан, различных жизненных форм (однолетние, многолетние), произрастающие в населенных пунктах Саратовской области (Аткарск, Саратов). Цель исследований – изучение эколого-биологических особенностей и мелиоративных свойств лиан и выявление перспектив их использования в вертикальном озеленении селитебных территорий Саратовской области. В ходе исследования видового состава, были выявлены наиболее популярные виды однолетних лиан: ипомея красно-голубая (Ipomea tricolor (L.) Roth) и ипомея пурпурная (Ipomea purpurea (L.) Roth), горошек душистый (Lathyrus edoratus L.), настурция (Tropacolum peregrinum L.) и фасоль огненно-красная (Phaseolus coccineus). Большинство (70%) из них произрастают в местах ограниченного пользования. Изученные виды лиан в исследуемых регионах достигают средних природных показателей (при наличии надлежащего ухода), обладают хорошими показателями жизненного состояния, обильно цветут и плодоносят. При воздействии токсикантами различной концентрации на листовые пластинки лиан установлено их степень устойчивости. Выявлено, что однолетние лианы лучше использовать в декоративных целях, а не в санитарно-гигиенических. Сравнительная оценка однолетних видов с многолетними лианами (девичий виноград пятилисточковый и клематис тангутский) показывает устойчивость многолетних видов (в среднем на 3 балла - 40%). Разработаны варианты декоративных композиций с участием травянистых лиан. По степени декоративности выделены однолетние лианы – Ipomea tricolor, I. purpurea (37 – 41 балл), средней степенью отличаются – Lathyrus edoratus (33 балла), Tropacolum peregrinum (30 баллов) и Phaseolus coccineus (20 – 27 баллов). Преимущество многолетних лиан заключается в их устойчивости к резким изменениям климатических условий (на 40 %) по сравнению с однолетними формами. Поэтому они более предпочтительны для озеленения городской среды. Для усиления декоративного эффекта в сезонном аспекте рекомендуются сочетать расширение видового и формового разнообразия растений (многолетние и однолетние лианы, древесно-кустарниковая, цветочная растительность). Установлено, что природно-климатические условия зоны степи и лесостепи в пределах Саратовской области являются достаточно благоприятными для нормального роста и развития древесно-кустарниковой растительности, в том числе травянистых лиан. Таким образом, обоснованное применение древесных лиан в комплексе с традиционными видами насаждений позволит создать комфортные условия проживания населения, регулировать оптимальный температурный баланс и создавать благоприятные микроклиматические условия. Vertical gardening with different types of vines in modern conditions is important aesthetic and sanitary-hygienic value. It is especially important to address the issues of enrichment of the flora of urban areas with vines in the steppe regions due to poor species composition and a sharp deterioration of the ecological situation. The objects of research were 7 species of lianas, various life forms (annual, perennial), growing in the settlements of the Saratov region (Atkarsk, Saratov). The aim of the research is to study the ecological and biological features and reclamation properties of vines and identify the prospects for their use in vertical gardening residential areas of the Saratov region. In the study, species composition was the most popular species of annual vines: morning glory red-blue (Ipomea tricolor (L.) Roth) and purple morning glory (Ipomea purpurea (L.) Roth), the fragrant pea (Lathyrus edoratus L.), nasturtium (Tropacolum peregrinum L.) and runner beans (Phaseolus coccineus). Most (70%) of them grow in restricted areas. Studied species of vines in the study regions reach average natural performance (with proper care), have good indicators of vital condition, bloom abundantly and bear fruit. When exposed to toxicants of different concentrations on the leaf blades of vines established their degree of stability. It was revealed that the annual vines are better used for decorative purposes, and not in the sanitary-hygienic. A comparative assessment of annual species with perennial vines (maiden grapes and clematis Tangut) shows the stability of perennial species (an average of 3 points-40%). The options and decorative compositions with the participation of herbaceous vines. According to the degree of decoration of the allocated annual vine – Ipomea tricolor, I. purpurea (37 – 41 points), the average degree of differ – Lathyrus edoratus (33 points), Tropacolum peregrinum (30 points) and Phaseolus coccineus (20 to 27 points). The advantage of perennial vines is their resistance to sudden changes in climatic conditions (40 %) compared to annual forms. Therefore, they are more preferable for greening the urban environment. To enhance the decorative effect in the seasonal aspect, it is recommended to combine the expansion of species and form diversity of plants (perennial and annual lianas, tree and shrub, floral vegetation). It is established that the climatic conditions of the steppe and forest-steppe zone within the Saratov region are quite favorable for the normal growth and development of tree and shrub vegetation, including herbaceous lianas. Thus, the reasonable use of wood vines in combination with traditional types of plantings will create comfortable living conditions for the population, regulate the optimal temperature balance and create favorable microclimatic conditions.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 6930
Author(s):  
Shinsuke Kyoi

This study evaluates people’s preferences regarding the proximity of their residence to agricultural urban green infrastructure (UGI), such as agricultural land and satoyama, and discusses the availability of these types of land as UGI. UGI is vital for reducing the negative environmental impacts of urban areas, as these impacts are too large to ignore. In this study, we conducted an online survey and a choice experiment to investigate people’s perceptions regarding the proximity of their residence to agricultural UGI (AUGI). The respondents of the choice experiment were 802 inhabitants of Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan, which has rich agricultural resources. To examine explicitly the spatial autocorrelation of people’s preferences, in this study, we used the spatial econometrics method. The main empirical findings are that people prefer agricultural land far away from their residence—more than 1000 m, not within 1000 m—which reflects the not-in-my-backyard phenomenon. Meanwhile, people’s preferences regarding proximity to satoyama are complicated and their preferences are positively spatially autocorrelated. The results indicate that policymakers and urban planners should manage and provide AUGI far away from residential areas; otherwise, they must address people’s avoidance of neighboring AUGI.


1999 ◽  
Vol 39 (5) ◽  
pp. 145-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. J. Pratt

Permeable surfaces for roads and footpaths have been used as a means of disposal of stormwater in developed urban areas. Such surfaces provide an alternative to impermeable concrete or tarmacadam surfaces which would otherwise produce rapid stormwater runoff, leading to possible flooding and degeneration of receiving water quality through the uncontrolled discharge of polluted urban waters. A further advantage may be obtained from such constructions by undersealing them so as to retain stormwater for re-use for non-potable uses. The potential for general introduction of this type of storage and re-use system in residential areas is discussed and possible alternative designs for the drainage infrastructure proposed. To have widespread impact such a strategy must deliver cost savings as well as reduce the impact on the water environment of anticipated water usage demands. The source of such cost savings and the general environmental benefits of such systems will be presented. The materials used in such a sealed construction and the beneficial changes to the stored water quality are outlined. Recent work has also shown that where the pavement is used for car parking any oils dropped on the surface and washed into the structure by the stormwater may also be degraded. Details will be given of a site in the UK where the above construction is to be used to provide stormwater storage for re-use in flushing toilets at a Youth Hostel.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 12175
Author(s):  
Le-Minh Ngo ◽  
Hai-Binh Nguyen ◽  
Thi-Phuong Uyen Nguyen ◽  
Thi-Minh Dieu Nguyen

As with many metropolitan areas, social housing (SH) provision, which can improve living standards and social welfare, is crucial for urban socio-economic development strategies in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). However, there have been issues relating to promoting social housing in the Vietnamese context resulting from the property market and the design. The former is a failure to attract investors. The latter relates to lacking housing models for the mid- and low-income communities. Currently, many low-income families who have low access to the general job market in HCMC have to make a living by running their own business at home. This situation leads to low-income housing establishments in some residential areas. Thus, the planning approach in social housing needs to solve both the demand for low-cost housing and promoting self-employed activities. In this paper, mixed methods, including observation, questionnaires, interviews, data aggregation, and comparison, were conducted with supporting legal conditions and corresponding operating conditions to propose appropriate designs for the SH for self-employed people in HCMC. First, observing and analyzing urban spaces helped identify the unused urban areas that solve the investment issue. Then, after studying the development of social housing in different contexts via the questionnaire and in-depth interviews, self-employed households’ basic information and their business needs in using SH spaces were identified in some districts. Then, based on the legal framework and practical projects, optimal space designs were formed.


2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 11967-11996 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Mitsakou ◽  
G. Kallos ◽  
N. Papantoniou ◽  
C. Spyrou ◽  
S. Solomos ◽  
...  

Abstract. The desert of Sahara is one of the major sources of mineral dust on Earth, producing around 2×108 tons/yr. Under certain weather conditions, dust particles from Saharan desert get transported over the Mediterranean Sea and most of Europe. The limiting values set by the directive EC/30/1999 of European Union can easily be exceeded by the transport of desert dust particles in all south European areas and especially urban. In this study, the effects of dust transport on air quality in several Greek urban areas are quantified. PM10 concentration values from stationary monitoring stations are compared to dust concentrations for the 4-year period 2003–2006. The dust concentration values in the Greek areas were estimated by the SKIRON modelling system coupled with embedded algorithms describing the dust cycle. The mean annual dust contribution to daily-averaged PM10 concentration values was found to be around or even greater than 10% in the urban areas throughout the years examined. Natural dust transport may contribute by much more than 20% to the annual number of exceedances – PM10 values greater than EU limits – depending on the specific monitoring location. In a second stage of the study, the inhaled lung dose received by the residents in various Greek locations is calculated. The particle deposition efficiency of mineral dust at the different parts of the human respiratory tract is determined by applying a lung dosimetry numerical model, which incorporates inhalation dynamics and aerosol physical processes. The inhalation dose from mineral dust particles was greater in the upper respiratory system (extrathoracic region) and less significant in the lungs, especially in the sensitive alveolar region. However, in cases of dust episodes, the amounts of mineral dust deposited along the human lung are comparable to those received during exposure in heavily polluted urban or smoking areas.


2021 ◽  
pp. 369-389
Author(s):  
Atsushi Takizawa ◽  
Yutaka Kawagishi

AbstractWhen a disaster such as a large earthquake occurs, the resulting breakdown in public transportation leaves urban areas with many people who are struggling to return home. With people from various surrounding areas gathered in the city, unusually heavy congestion may occur on the roads when the commuters start to return home all at once on foot. In this chapter, it is assumed that a large earthquake caused by the Nankai Trough occurs at 2 p.m. on a weekday in Osaka City, where there are many commuters. We then assume a scenario in which evacuation from a resulting tsunami is carried out in the flooded area and people return home on foot in the other areas. At this time, evacuation and returning-home routes with the shortest possible travel times are obtained by solving the evacuation planning problem. However, the road network big data for Osaka City make such optimization difficult. Therefore, we propose methods for simplifying the large network while keeping those properties necessary for solving the optimization problem and then recovering the network. The obtained routes are then verified by large-scale pedestrian simulation, and the effect of the optimization is verified.


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