Investigation of Offshore Fault Modeling for a Source Region Related to the Shakotan-Oki Earthquake

The purpose of this study is to verify fault modeling in the source region of the 1940 Shakotan-Oki earthquake using active faults offshore of Japan. Tsunami heights simulated in previous studies are found to be lower than observed levels, which makes it difficult to explain historical tsunami records of this earthquake. However, the application of appropriate slip magnitudes in the fault models may explain these differences. In the “Project for the Comprehensive Analysis and Evaluation of Offshore Fault Informatics (the Project),” a new fault model is constructed using marine seismic data and geological and geophysical data compiled by the Offshore Fault Evaluation Group, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) as part of the Project for Fault Evaluation in the Seas around Japan (Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, MEXT). Single-channel and multichannel reflection seismic data were used that includes information from a new fault identified in previous surveys. We investigated fault geometries and their parameters using the above data. Here, we show that the geometric continuity of these faults is adjusted by increasing the magnitude of fault slip. Standard scaling laws are applied on the basis of strong ground motion of the fault parameters, and the validity of the fault model is examined by comparing tsunami heights along the Japanese coastline from historically observed records with tsunami height from simulation analysis. This verification quantitatively uses Aida’s K and κ scale and variance parameters. We determine that the simulated tsunami height determined using the new model approach the heights observed historically, which indicates that the model is valid and accurate for the source region.