RISK OF INDONESIAN BANKS: APPLYING HISTORICAL EXPECTED SHORTFALL METHOD
Asian and European Crises were witnesses of banks' vulnerable due to market risks. Basel Committee requires an internal risk assessment applying VaR. However, a replacement of VaR with expected Shortfall is suggested recently due to an excess loss produced by banks which are beyond VaR estimation. This paper studied the risk of Indonesian banks applying a historical expected shortfall. We used JIBOR (overnight) from 2009 – 2012 as a proxy of market risk. The assessment of a historical expected shortfall of the net position of 27 banks accounts for October 2012 showed that state owned banks placed among the five highest value of each component (net position) in the balance sheet, namely placement to Bank Indonesia, interbank placement, spot and derivatives claims, securities, and loans. It means that the state owned banks had the highest risk and the most aggressive among Indonesian banks. It might be due to carrying some of governments program, such as small enterprise loans. However, customers should not be worried since the government owns the banks. Keywords: Historical Expected Shortfall, Indonesian Banks, Banks' risk, Risk assessmentJEL Classification: G210