Estimating the Influence of High Temperature on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease Incidence in China
Abstract The burden of disease caused by ambient high temperature has become a public health concern, but the association between high temperature and hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) remain indistinct. We used Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) to estimate the burden of disease attribute to high temperature, adjusting for long-term trend and weather confounders. Total 18167455 cases were reported in 31 Chinese provinces, the incidence of HFMD showed a gradually increasing trend from 2008 to 2017 in China. Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT) was mainly concentrated at 17°C to 23°C in the age group less than 5 years old, 18°C to 25°C in the age group 6~10 years old and 19°C to 27°C in the age group above 10 years old. The greatest RR in age group 0~5 years old was 2.06 (95%CI: 1.85~2.30) in Heilongjiang, and the lowest RR was 1.02 (95%CI: 1.00~1.05) in Guangdong; the greatest RR in age group 6~10 years old was 2.24 (95%CI: 1.72~2.91) in Guizhou, and the lowest RR was 1.01 (95%CI: 0.97~1.12) in Tianjin; the greatest RR in the age group over 10 years old was 2.53 (95%CI: 1.66~3.87) in Heilongjiang, and the lowest RR 1.02 (95%CI: 0.71~1.46) in Henan. We found the positive association between high temperature and HFMD in China.