Responsibility Under Uncertainty: Which Climate Decisions Matter Most?

Abstract We propose a new method for estimating how much decisions under monadic uncertainty matter. The method is generic and suitable for measuring responsibility in finite horizon sequential decision processes. It fulfills “fairness” requirements and three natural conditions for responsibility measures: agency, avoidance and causal relevance. We apply the method to study how much decisions matter in a stylized greenhouse gas emissions process in which a decision maker repeatedly faces two options: start a “green” transition to a decarbonized society or further delay such a transition. We account for the fact that climate decisions are rarely implemented with certainty and that their consequences on the climate and on the global economy are uncertain. We discover that a “moral” approach towards decision making – doing the right thing even though the probability of success becomes increasingly small – is rational over a wide range of uncertainties.

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Hierarchical decision processes that operate over distinct timescales underlie choice and changes in strategy

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.1524685113 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 113 (31) ◽

pp. E4531-E4540 ◽

Cited By ~ 38

Author(s):

Braden A. Purcell ◽

Roozbeh Kiani

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Neural Mechanism ◽

Decision Processes ◽

Response Strategy ◽

Limited Information ◽

Decision Strategy ◽

Stimulus Response ◽

Hierarchical Decision ◽

The Right ◽

High Level

Decision-making in a natural environment depends on a hierarchy of interacting decision processes. A high-level strategy guides ongoing choices, and the outcomes of those choices determine whether or not the strategy should change. When the right decision strategy is uncertain, as in most natural settings, feedback becomes ambiguous because negative outcomes may be due to limited information or bad strategy. Disambiguating the cause of feedback requires active inference and is key to updating the strategy. We hypothesize that the expected accuracy of a choice plays a crucial rule in this inference, and setting the strategy depends on integration of outcome and expectations across choices. We test this hypothesis with a task in which subjects report the net direction of random dot kinematograms with varying difficulty while the correct stimulus−response association undergoes invisible and unpredictable switches every few trials. We show that subjects treat negative feedback as evidence for a switch but weigh it with their expected accuracy. Subjects accumulate switch evidence (in units of log-likelihood ratio) across trials and update their response strategy when accumulated evidence reaches a bound. A computational framework based on these principles quantitatively explains all aspects of the behavior, providing a plausible neural mechanism for the implementation of hierarchical multiscale decision processes. We suggest that a similar neural computation—bounded accumulation of evidence—underlies both the choice and switches in the strategy that govern the choice, and that expected accuracy of a choice represents a key link between the levels of the decision-making hierarchy.

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Opportunity Costs in the Game of Best Choice

The Electronic Journal of Combinatorics ◽

10.37236/8322 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 26 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Madeline Crews ◽

Brant Jones ◽

Kaitlyn Myers ◽

Laura Taalman ◽

Michael Urbanski ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Classical Case ◽

Secretary Problem ◽

Sequential Decision Making ◽

Opportunity Costs ◽

Sequential Decision ◽

Probability Of Success ◽

Uniform Model ◽

Weighted Model ◽

Over Time

The game of best choice, also known as the secretary problem, is a model for sequential decision making with many variations in the literature. Notably, the classical setup assumes that the sequence of candidate rankings is uniformly distributed over time and that there is no expense associated with the candidate interviews. Here, we weight each ranking permutation according to the position of the best candidate in order to model costs incurred from conducting interviews with candidates that are ultimately not hired. We compare our weighted model with the classical (uniform) model via a limiting process. It turns out that imposing even infinitesimal costs on the interviews results in a probability of success that is about 28%, as opposed to 1/e (about 37%) in the classical case.

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Multicriteria pathfinding in uncertain simulated environments

10.32469/10355/66141 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Andrew R. Buck

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Decision Maker ◽

Multicriteria Decision Making ◽

Spatial Knowledge ◽

Sequential Decision ◽

Multicriteria Decision ◽

Multicriteria Decision Making Problems ◽

Trade Offs ◽

Mental Map ◽

Partially Observable

Multicriteria decision-making problems arise in all aspects of daily life and form the basis upon which high-level models of thought and behavior are built. These problems present various alternatives to a decision-maker, who must evaluate the trade-offs between each one and choose a course of action. In a sequential decision-making problem, each choice can influence which alternatives are available for subsequent actions, requiring the decision-maker to plan ahead in order to satisfy a set of objectives. These problems become more difficult, but more realistic, when information is restricted, either through partial observability or by approximate representations. Pathfinding in partially observable environments is one significant context in which a decision-making agent must develop a plan of action that satisfies multiple criteria. In general, the partially observable multiobjective pathfinding problem requires an agent to navigate to certain goal locations in an environment with various attributes that may be partially hidden, while minimizing a set of objective functions. To solve these types of problems, we create agent models based on the concept of a mental map that represents the agent's most recent spatial knowledge of the environment, using fuzzy numbers to represent uncertainty. We develop a simulation framework that facilitates the creation and deployment of a wide variety of environment types, problem definitions, and agent models. This computational mental map (CMM) framework is shown to be suitable for studying various types of sequential multicriteria decision-making problems, such as the shortest path problem, the traveling salesman problem, and the traveling purchaser problem in multiobjective and partially observable configurations.

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How to Discourage Adversaries From Affecting Decision Outcomes of a Repeated Patent Application Decision--Making Process

10.20944/preprints202106.0676.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Willem van der Sluis

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Decision Support ◽

Decision Maker ◽

Patent Application ◽

Decision Making Process ◽

Sequential Decision ◽

Decision Support Model ◽

Application Process ◽

Decision Outcomes ◽

Application Decision

Outcomes of repeated decision--making processes may be affected by adversarial actors, without being noticed. Adversaries may try to gain knowledge about a particular decision--making process, identify its decision--makers, and guess which underlying decision support model is used. Then they can simulate the process, and craft different scenarios to affect its decision outcomes. Therefore, designers of decision support systems need to incorporate this in the decision modeling phase. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate this for the repeated decision--making in a patent application process. In this process, two sequential decision outcomes can be affected by adversarial actors: a company's decision to which type of patent office to send a patent request to, and the decision of a specialized patent officer to grant an application, or not. It is motivated that the company's decision--maker is \emph{bounded} rational. A theory for information--theoretic bounded rational decision--making under uncertainty proposed by Ortega et al.\ is adopted to model this type of decision--maker. A framework is provided to simulate a number of scenarios that adversaries may deploy to affect decision outcomes of a repeated patent application decision--making process. The framework is also utilized for statistically testing the presence of the scenarios, and to demonstrate how to discourage adversaries from deploying them.

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Assessing model-based inferences in decision making with single-trial response time decomposition

10.31234/osf.io/kc26f ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Gabriel Weindel ◽

Royce anders ◽

F.-Xavier Alario ◽

Boris BURLE

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Decision Processes ◽

Emg Activity ◽

Parameter Estimates ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Response Force ◽

Model Based ◽

Wide Range ◽

Response Execution ◽

Speed Accuracy

Decision-making models based on evidence accumulation processes (the most prolific one being the drift-diffusion model – DDM) are widely used to draw inferences about latent psychological processes from chronometric data. While the observed goodness of fit in a wide range of tasks supports the model’s validity, the derived interpretations have yet to be sufficiently cross-validated with other measures that also reflect cognitive processing. To do so, we recorded electromyographic (EMG) activity along with response times (RT), and used it to decompose every RT into two components: a pre-motor (PMT) and motor time (MT). These measures were mapped to the DDM's parameters, thus allowing a test, beyond quality of fit, of the validity of the model’s assumptions and their usual interpretation. In two perceptual decision tasks, performed within a canonical task setting, we manipulated stimulus contrast, speed-accuracy trade-off, and response force, and assessed their effects on PMT, MT, and RT. Contrary to common assumptions, these three factors consistently affected MT. DDM parameter estimates of non-decision processes are thought to include motor execution processes, and they were globally linked to the recorded response execution MT. However, when the assumption of independence between decision and non-decision processes was not met, in the fastest trials, the link was weaker. Overall, the results show a fair concordance between model-based and EMG-based decompositions of RTs, but also establish some limits on the interpretability of decision model parameters linked to response execution.

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Criminal Juries in the 21st Century

10.1093/oso/9780190658113.001.0001 ◽

2018 ◽

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

21St Century ◽

Psychological Research ◽

Jury Trial ◽

Technological Advances ◽

Wide Range ◽

Just Decisions ◽

And Performance ◽

Scientific Attention ◽

The Right

The jury is often celebrated as an important symbol of American democracy. Yet much has changed since 1791 when the Sixth Amendment guaranteed all citizens the right to a jury trial in criminal prosecutions. Psychological and legal scholars have empirically evaluated many claims about the strengths and limitations of the jury system. Now, scientific attention is focusing on new challenges that contemporary juries face. The authors of the chapters in this volume consider myriad legal issues that arise when jurors decide criminal cases while reviewing cutting-edge psychological research and ways that this research can improve the experience and performance of the modern criminal jury. The first part of this book reviews recent societal shifts in attitudes and their potential impact on the demographic and ideological composition of the criminal jury and, in turn, the jury’s ability to make fair and just decisions. The second part of the book considers how recent technological advances have generated new sources of influence on jurors’ evaluations of evidence and decision-making. The final part of the book examines how emotions impact the jury decision-making process and individual citizens’ experiences of serving as jurors. Each of these sets of issues is relevant to understanding the structure, functioning, and performance of today’s juries. This volume offers a unique and broad view of criminal juries, drawing attention to a wide range of issues that impact jurors’ decision-making in the 21st century and, thus, are in need of theoretical, scientific, and legal attention.

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Difficult Decisions in Cancer Care — Conducting an Ethics Case Analysis

European Oncology & Haematology ◽

10.17925/eoh.2011.07.02.101 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 07 (02) ◽

pp. 101 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Ann Gallagher ◽

Craig Gannon ◽

◽

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Best Interests ◽

Ethical Framework ◽

Difficult Decision ◽

Ethical Decisions ◽

Course Of Action ◽

Wide Range ◽

Oncology Practice ◽

Four Quadrant ◽

The Right

In everyday oncology practice, practitioners make a wide range of ethical decisions. Many of these decisions will seem straightforward, with those involved agreeing on the right course of action. Other decisions will be difficult, with conflicting perspectives regarding the wishes, needs and best interests of patients. This article suggests an ethical framework to facilitate the decision-making of practitioners in relation to challenging practice situations. We provide an anonymised ‘ethics case’ to examine one difficult decision made by a hospice team. The four-quadrant approach can be used to facilitate reflection and collaborative decision-making.

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MANAGEMENT IN DECISIONS MAKING, TAKING CONTROL IN BUSINESS

Knowledge International Journal ◽

10.35120/kij28051575r ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 28 (5) ◽

pp. 1575-1579

Author(s):

Redon Koleci

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Accurate Information ◽

Good Decision ◽

Business World ◽

Development Cycle ◽

Wide Range ◽

Modern Business ◽

The Right ◽

Available Information ◽

And Control

The purpose of this paper is to help managers with a wealth of understanding so that they value the available information and then make a good decision-making solution in the venture they will run or hire in the business world, most individuals have successfully developed their entrepreneurial talent and have been able to use it to realize their investment and career goals.In the business world as well as in many other areas of the economy decision-making and control is used to elucidate valuable information on economic activity.The business hospitality business has always attached importance to making decisions and at all times doing constant job verifications if they are doing the right thing.The owners of a bussines are interested in monitoring the business status but also take care of many other things, especially for investment, because an investor wants to invest their business money that will return or increase their wealth so here we are faced with making decisions.To monitor whether their investments are good they will always look for and rely on accurate information to do so effectively as it is the control that helps us monitor and provide information.It is known that today there are many companies operating in our country and most of them enjoy a very high success, but besides, there are those who do not even have a year of operation in our market. Many times come the questions that we put to ourselves from all this failure, and we will find the answer precisely in this paper by defining in detail the terms: control and planning by comparing them with competition.The primary task of managers in the modern business world is to accept the risk and make decisions in very dynamic environments combining a wide range of economic, social, technical factors that serve as innovations for new modern businesses.Control is a key element in the business development cycle in all sectors, for better planning and for successful future, since with the help of control it is also possible to make a secure decision based on the results previously undertaken and all businesses directly or indirectly face the competition by creating them an instability in business life.Control is a process that generates information about the truthfulness of what we want to research about organizations.

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Model Pengambilan Keputusan Pemilihan Bibit Unggul Sapi Bali Menggunakan Metode Weighted Product

Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer ◽

10.25126/jtiik.2021853512 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (5) ◽

pp. 879

Author(s):

Dyna Marisa Khairina ◽

Indra Cahya Pramukti ◽

Heliza Rahmania Hatta ◽

Septya Maharani

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Decision Maker ◽

Efficient Method ◽

Germ Plasm ◽

Selection Process ◽

Product Method ◽

Bali Cattle ◽

The Right ◽

Decision Making Model ◽

Selection Of

Kesulitan dalam mencari bibit unggul pada ternak sapi bali, menyebabkan bibit unggul yang terpilih semakin tidak produktif dalam hal penggemukan ternak. Penentuan bibit unggul pada ternak sapi bali merupakan hal yang sangat krusial bagi para pengambil keputusan yang terkait dalam hal ini adalah peternak sapi bali. Jika tidak dilakukan secara tepat dan akurat, maka pemilihan bibit unggul pada sapi bali yang keliru seringkali mengakibatkan berbagai permasalahan. Model pengambilan keputusan dapat digunakan untuk membantu manusia khususnya peternak sapi dalam mengambil keputusan. Metode Weighted Product adalah metode yang sangat efektif dan efisien dalam pemilihan bibit unggul, karena waktu yang diperlukan untuk perhitungan jauh lebih singkat. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah membuat suatu model pengambilan keputusan untuk pemilihan bibit unggul terbaik pada ternak sapi bali. Adapun model pengambilan keputusan ini membantu memberikan rekomendasi kepada peternak dalam proses pemilihan bibit unggul sapi bali sebagai bahan pertimbangan dalam memilih secara tepat, akurat dan mempermudah proses pemilihan dengan keputusan terbaik. AbstractThe difficulty to look for superior seeds of Bali cattle causes the selected superior germ plasm being more unproductive in case of fattening cattle. The decision of superior seeds of Bali cattle is a crucial thing for the decision maker, related with this case is Bali cattle breeder. If it is not organized accurately, then the selection of superior seeds on the wrong bali cows often lead to various problems. Decision-making models can be used to help humans, especially cattle ranchers in making decisions. Weighted Product Method is a very effective and efficient method for selecting superior seeds, because the timing needed for calculation is much shorter. The purpose of this research is to make a model of decision making for selection superior seeds of Bali cattle. The decision-making model helps provide recommendations to farmers in the process of selecting superior bali cattle seeds as a material consideration in choosing the right, accurate and simplify the selection process with the best decision.

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