scholarly journals Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the control of COVID-19 in Iran: A mathematical modeling study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehran Nakhaeizadeh ◽  
Sana Eybpoosh ◽  
Yunes Jahani ◽  
Milad Ahmadi Gohari ◽  
Ali Akbar Haghdoost ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Control Programs ◽  
East Region ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Middle East Region ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract Background During the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic, Iran reported high numbers of infections and deaths in the Middle East region. In the following months, the burden of this infection decreased significantly, possibly due to the impact of a package of interventions. We modeled the dynamics of COVID-19 infection in Iran to quantify the impacts of these interventions. Methods We used a modified susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered (SEIR) model to model the COVID-19 epidemic in Iran, from 21 January to 21 September 2020, using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation to calculate 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). We used the model to assess the effectiveness of physical distancing measures and self-isolation under different scenarios. We also estimated the control reproductive number (Rc), using our mathematical model and epidemiologic data. Results If no non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were applied, there could have been a cumulative number of 51,800,000 (95% UI: 19,100,000–77,600,000) COVID-19 infections and 266,000 (95% UI: 119,000–476,000) deaths by September 21 2020. If physical distancing interventions, such as school/border closures and self-isolation interventions, had been introduced a week earlier than they were actually launched, a 30% reduction in the number of infections and deaths could have been achieved by September 21 2020. The observed daily number of deaths showed that the Rc was one or more than one almost every day during the analysis period. Conclusions Our models suggest that the NPIs implemented in Iran between 21 January and 21 September 2020 had significant effects on the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. Therefore, we recommend that these interventions are considered when designing future control programs, while simultaneously considering innovative approaches that can minimize harmful economic impacts on the community and the state. Our study also showed that the timely implementation of NPIs showed a profound effect on further reductions in the numbers of infections and deaths. This highlights the importance of forecasting and early detection of future waves of infection and of the need for effective preparedness and response capabilities.

scholarly journals Mathematical Modeling of the Spread of Alcoholism Among Colombian College Students

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (32) ◽  
pp. 195-223
Author(s):  
Edgardo Pérez
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
College Students ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Drinking Behavior ◽  
Preventive Measure ◽  
Nonlinear Mathematical Model ◽  
Consumption Behavior ◽  
Existence And Stability ◽  
Drugs And Crime ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, we present a nonlinear mathematical model, describing the spread of high-risk alcohol consumption behavior among college students in Colombia. We proved the existence and stability of the alcohol-free and drinking state equilibrium by means of Lyapunov function and LaSalle’s invariance principle. Also, we apply optimal control to study the impact of a preventive measure on the spread of drinking behavior among college students. Finally, we use numerical simulations and available data provided by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) and the Colombian Ministry of Justice to validate the obtained mathematical model.

scholarly journals A Simulation on Potential Secondary Spread of Novel Coronavirus in an Exported Country Using a Stochastic Epidemic SEIR Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 944 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kentaro Iwata ◽  
Chisato Miyakoshi
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Professionals ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Hospital Visit ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Stochastic Epidemic ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Multiple Scenarios

Ongoing outbreak of pneumonia caused by novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) began in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and the number of new patients continues to increase. Even though it began to spread to many other parts of the world, such as other Asian countries, the Americas, Europe, and the Middle East, the impact of secondary outbreaks caused by exported cases outside China remains unclear. We conducted simulations to estimate the impact of potential secondary outbreaks in a community outside China. Simulations using stochastic SEIR model were conducted, assuming one patient was imported to a community. Among 45 possible scenarios we prepared, the worst scenario resulted in the total number of persons recovered or removed to be 997 (95% CrI 990–1000) at day 100 and a maximum number of symptomatic infectious patients per day of 335 (95% CrI 232–478). Calculated mean basic reproductive number (R0) was 6.5 (Interquartile range, IQR 5.6–7.2). However, better case scenarios with different parameters led to no secondary cases. Altering parameters, especially time to hospital visit. could change the impact of a secondary outbreak. With these multiple scenarios with different parameters, healthcare professionals might be able to better prepare for this viral infection.

The Application of Uncitral Model Law Principles in the Middle East Region

2008 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 219-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Abu Sadah ◽  
Simon Norton
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Case Law ◽  
Basic Principles ◽  
Enforcement Effort ◽  
East Region ◽  
Model Law ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Middle East Region

AbstractThis article presents an empirical analysis of the impact of the enforcement of substantive UNCITRAL Model Law principles in the Middle East region. Despite the main differences in the schools of thought and jurisdictions in the Middle East, the major conclusion is that UNCITRAL principles are applicable. As compared with data taken from legislations and case law after adopting the UNCITRAL Model Law, in an extension of the analysis, findings show a marginally significant change and deviations from the basic principles of the Model Law in these countries. Analysis of the implications of these changes from the perspective of the role played by the Model Law, shows that there was significant theoretical and practical negative impact upon the overall objectives of the law enforcement effort.

scholarly journals ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF INVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS OF CONSTRUCTION ENTERPRISES IN THE SYSTEM OF STAKEHOLDER RELATIONS

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 56-65
Author(s):  
Volodymyr Velychko ◽  
Evgeniy Grytskov ◽  
Dmytriy Prunenko
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
External Control ◽  
Construction Enterprise ◽  
Stakeholder Relations ◽  
Construction Enterprises ◽  
Construction Companies ◽  
Quantitative Basis ◽  
Sound Management ◽  
The Impact

The relevance of the process of implementation of economic and mathematical model of investment attractiveness of the construction enterprise in the stakeholder relation system is proved. The results of the analysis of the theoretical provisions for determining investment attractiveness and stakeholders of construction enterprises are presented. An economic and mathematical model for the formation of stakeholder groups in the system of relations with construction enterprises is proposed. A system of information and analytical support for an integrated assessment of the level of stakeholder relations and investment attractiveness of construction enterprises has been formed, which creates the basis for economic and mathematical modeling. The directions, methods, and models for assessing investment attractiveness and the level of stakeholder relations of construction enterprises are proposed. The practical aspects of their implementation are determined. The results of economic and mathematical modeling of the investment attractiveness of construction enterprises in the system of stakeholder relations are presented. The subject of the research is the directions of formation and realization of economic and mathematical modeling of investment attractiveness of enterprises in the system of stakeholder relations. The formation of the research methodology is carried out on the basis of the theoretical and methodological platform for determining the investment attractiveness of enterprises and stakeholders that interact in the relevant field. In addition, a set of methods is used to conduct the study: analytical (to determine indicators of investment attractiveness); expert assessments (to determine the index of stakeholder relations); method of analysis of hierarchies (to assess the importance of the impact of stakeholders (customers of construction products; workers of construction enterprises; top management; managers of various levels of construction enterprises; owners of construction enterprises; government bodies influencing the formation and level of interaction of stakeholders with construction enterprises; public organizations influencing activities in construction and architecture; corporate governance bodies of construction enterprises; the bodies of internal and external control interacting in the construction industry; the competitors of construction enterprises; the suppliers of inventories interacting with construction enterprises; stakeholders interacting in the formation and use of spatial, urban, environmental information and creating investment attractiveness of construction enterprises; the design organizations; other stakeholders interacting with construction enterprises) at the level of stakeholders from noses of enterprises); economic and mathematical modeling (to establish causal links between the level of stakeholder relations and the index of investment attractiveness of enterprises); generalization and systematization (to obtain and interpret research results). The aim of the study is to establish causal relationships between the factors that shape the level of stakeholder relations and investment attractiveness of construction companies based on economic and mathematical tools. The result of the study is the formation of a quantitative basis for making sound management decisions in the system of stakeholder relations of construction companies to increase their investment attractiveness.

scholarly journals Evolving Epidemiology and Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaolong Wang ◽  
Li Liu ◽  
Xingjie Hao ◽  
Huan Guo ◽  
Qi Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Attack Rate ◽  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

ABSTRACTBACKGROUNDWe described the epidemiological features of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) outbreak, and evaluated the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the epidemic in Wuhan, China.METHODSIndividual-level data on 25,961 laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 cases reported through February 18, 2020 were extracted from the municipal Notifiable Disease Report System. Based on key events and interventions, we divided the epidemic into four periods: before January 11, January 11-22, January 23 - February 1, and February 2-18. We compared epidemiological characteristics across periods and different demographic groups. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model to study the epidemic and evaluate the impact of interventions.RESULTSThe median age of the cases was 57 years and 50.3% were women. The attack rate peaked in the third period and substantially declined afterwards across geographic regions, sex and age groups, except for children (age <20) whose attack rate continued to increase. Healthcare workers and elderly people had higher attack rates and severity risk increased with age. The effective reproductive number dropped from 3.86 (95% credible interval 3.74 to 3.97) before interventions to 0.32 (0.28 to 0.37) post interventions. The interventions were estimated to prevent 94.5% (93.7 to 95.2%) infections till February 18. We found that at least 59% of infected cases were unascertained in Wuhan, potentially including asymptomatic and mild-symptomatic cases.CONCLUSIONSConsiderable countermeasures have effectively controlled the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan. Special efforts are needed to protect vulnerable populations, including healthcare workers, elderly and children. Estimation of unascertained cases has important implications on continuing surveillance and interventions.

scholarly journals Arab Saudi dan Iran: Kontestasi Ideologi dan Dampaknya di Kawasan Timur Tengah Pasca The Arab Spring

POLITEA ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 129
Author(s):  
Ihsan Hamid ◽  
Ozi Setiadi
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Arab Spring ◽  
Historical Analysis ◽  
East Region ◽  
Islamic Religion ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Arab Spring ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Middle East Region

<p class="06IsiAbstrak">Saudi Arabia and Iran: Ideological Contest and Its Impact in the Middle East Region after The Arab Spring. Tensions surround the Middle East region, especially between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The Sunni-Shia ideological factor contributed to the conflict in the region and also attracted these two countries. This research will answer the question how is the form of contestation of Sunni-Shia ideology represented by Saudi Arabia with Iran in the Middle East? What are the factors and impacts of the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran on countries in the region after the Arab Spring? The historical approach (historical analysis) was chosen to explain the two research questions above, using qualitative methods. Saudi Arabia and Iran represent both a Sunni-Shia ideological contestation, both of which try to support each other's ruling government, as well as conflicting oppositions based on ideological backgrounds. This support is carried out in the form of military assistance, weapons, or direct involvement which is marked by various statements that appear in the media. The disharmony of Saudi Arabia and Iran is driven by several factors, namely first, the Sunni-Shia ideological struggle between the two. Second, the claim to be the holder of the Islamic religion in each version. And third, oil. While the impact of this is political instability in the Middle East region after the Arab Spring, to the "cold war" involving Saudi Arabia and Iran.             </p><p class="05Abstrak">.</p>

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