scholarly journals A pivotal restructuring of modelling the control of COVID-19 during and after massive vaccination for the next few years

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose B Cruz ◽  
Tirso A Ronquillo ◽  
Ralph G B Sangalang ◽  
Albertson D Amante ◽  
Divina G D Ronquillo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Medical Treatment ◽  
World Wide ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Direct Observations ◽  
Feedback Model ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
The Social ◽  
One Year

Abstract This paper presents a new mathematical feedback model to demonstrate how direct observations of the epidemiological compartments of population could be mapped to inputs, such that the social spread of the disease is asymptotically subdued. Details of the stabilization and robustness are included. This is a pivotal restructuring of modelling the control of corona virus from the current models in use world-wide which do not utilize feedback of functions of epidemiological compartments of population to construct the inputs. Although several vaccines have received Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) massive vaccination would take several years to reach herd immunity in most countries. Furthermore, the period of efficacy of the vaccination may be approximately one year only resulting in an unending vaccination. Even during the vaccination, there would be an urgent need to control the spread of the virus. When herd immunity is reached and vaccination is discontinued, there would be new surges of the disease. These surges of disease are not possible in appropriately designed stable feedback models. However, extensive testing, contact tracing, and medical treatment of those found infected, must be maintained.

scholarly journals A pivotal restructuring of modelling the control of COVID-19 during and after massive vaccination for the next few years

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose B Cruz ◽  
Tirso A Ronquillo ◽  
Ralph G B Sangalang ◽  
Albertson D Amante ◽  
Divina G D Ronquillo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Medical Treatment ◽  
World Wide ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Direct Observations ◽  
Feedback Model ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
The Social ◽  
One Year

Abstract This paper presents a new mathematical feedback model to demonstrate how direct observations of the epidemiological compartments of population could be mapped to inputs, such that the social spread of the disease is asymptotically subdued. Details of the stabilization and robustness are included. This is a pivotal restructuring of modelling the control of corona virus from the current models in use world-wide which do not utilize feedback of functions of epidemiological compartments of population to construct the inputs. Although several vaccines have received Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) massive vaccination would take several years to reach herd immunity in most countries. Furthermore, the period of efficacy of the vaccination may be approximately one year only resulting in an unending vaccination. Even during the vaccination, there would be an urgent need to control the spread of the virus. When herd immunity is reached and vaccination is discontinued, there would be new surges of the disease. These surges of disease are not possible in appropriately designed stable feedback models. However, extensive testing, contact tracing, and medical treatment of those found infected, must be maintained.

scholarly journals A pivotal restructuring of modelling the control of COVID-19 during and after massive vaccination for the next few years

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose B Cruz ◽  
Tirso A Ronquillo ◽  
Ralph G B Sangalang ◽  
Albertson D Amante ◽  
Divina G D Ronquillo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Medical Treatment ◽  
World Wide ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Direct Observations ◽  
Feedback Model ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
The Social ◽  
One Year

Abstract This paper presents a new mathematical feedback model to demonstrate how direct observations of the epidemiological compartments of population could be mapped to inputs, such that the social spread of the disease is asymptotically subdued. Details of the stabilization and robustness are included. This is a pivotal restructuring of modelling the control of corona virus from the current models in use world-wide which do not utilize feedback of functions of epidemiological compartments of population to construct the inputs. Although several vaccines have received Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) massive vaccination would take several years to reach herd immunity in most countries. Furthermore, the period of efficacy of the vaccination may be approximately one year only resulting in an unending vaccination. Even during the vaccination, there would be an urgent need to control the spread of the virus. When herd immunity is reached and vaccination is discontinued, there would be new surges of the disease. These surges of disease are not possible in appropriately designed stable feedback models. However, extensive testing, contact tracing, and medical treatment of those found infected, must be maintained.

scholarly journals A pivotal restructuring of modelling the control of COVID-19 during and after massive vaccination for the next few years

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose B Cruz ◽  
Tirso A Ronquillo ◽  
Ralph G B Sangalang ◽  
Albertson D Amante ◽  
Divina G D Ronquillo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Medical Treatment ◽  
World Wide ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Direct Observations ◽  
Feedback Model ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
The Social ◽  
One Year

Abstract This paper presents a new mathematical feedback model to demonstrate how direct observations of the epidemiological compartments of population could be mapped to inputs, such that the social spread of the disease is asymptotically subdued. Details of the stabilization and robustness are included. This is a pivotal restructuring of modelling the control of corona virus from the current models in use world-wide which do not utilize feedback of functions of epidemiological compartments of population to construct the inputs. Although several vaccines have received Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) massive vaccination would take several years to reach herd immunity in most countries. Furthermore, the period of efficacy of the vaccination may be approximately one year only resulting in an unending vaccination. Even during the vaccination, there would be an urgent need to control the spread of the virus. When herd immunity is reached and vaccination is discontinued, there would be new surges of the disease. These surges of disease are not possible in appropriately designed stable feedback models. However, extensive testing, contact tracing, and medical treatment of those found infected, must be maintained.

scholarly journals A pivotal restructuring of modelling the control of COVID-19 during and after massive vaccination for the next few years

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose B Cruz ◽  
Tirso A Ronquillo ◽  
Ralph G B Sangalang ◽  
Albertson D Amante ◽  
Divina G D Ronquillo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Medical Treatment ◽  
World Wide ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Direct Observations ◽  
Feedback Model ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
The Social ◽  
One Year

Abstract This paper presents a new mathematical feedback model to demonstrate how direct observations of the epidemiological compartments of population could be mapped to inputs, such that the social spread of the disease is asymptotically subdued. Details of the stabilization and robustness are included. This is a pivotal restructuring of modelling the control of corona virus from the current models in use world-wide which do not utilize feedback of functions of epidemiological compartments of population to construct the inputs. Although several vaccines have received Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) massive vaccination would take several years to reach herd immunity in most countries. Furthermore, the period of efficacy of the vaccination may be approximately one year only resulting in an unending vaccination. Even during the vaccination, there would be an urgent need to control the spread of the virus. When herd immunity is reached and vaccination is discontinued, there would be new surges of the disease. These surges of disease are not possible in appropriately designed stable feedback models. However, extensive testing, contact tracing, and medical treatment of those found infected, must be maintained.

scholarly journals Self-Burnout – A New Path to the End of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
B Shayak ◽  
Richard H Rand
Keyword(s):  
Social Mobility ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
The Self ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Actual Number ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
First Order ◽  
The Social ◽  
Linear Delay ◽  
Delay Differential

ABSTRACTIn this work we use mathematical modeling to describe a possible route to the end of COVID-19, which does not feature either vaccination or herd immunity. We call this route self-burnout. We consider a region with (a) no influx of corona cases from the outside, (b) extensive social distancing, though not necessarily a full lockdown, and (c) high testing capacity relative to the actual number of new cases per day. These conditions can make it possible for the region to initiate the endgame phase of epidemic management, wherein the disease is slowly made to burn itself out through a combination of social distancing, sanitization, contact tracing and preventive testing. The dynamics of the case trajectories in this regime are governed by a single-variable first order linear delay differential equation, whose stability criterion can be obtained analytically. Basis this criterion, we conclude that the social mobility restrictions should be such as to ensure that on the average, one person interacts closely (from the transmission viewpoint) with at most one other person over a 4-5 day period. If the endgame can be played out for a long enough time, we claim that the Coronavirus can eventually get completely contained without affecting a significant fraction of the region’s population. We present estimates of the duration for which the epidemic is expected to last, finding an interval of approximately 5-15 weeks after the self-burnout phase is initiated. South Korea, Austria, Australia, New Zealand and the states of Goa, Kerala and Odisha in India appear to be well on the way towards containing COVID by this method.

It’s a long war; not over yet!

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yasuhiro Morimoto
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care ◽  
Key Words ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Multiple Strategies ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
Main Emphasis ◽  
One Year ◽  
Better Than

Corona virus disease has engulfed the globe for well over one year now. Multiple strategies to control the pandemic have been in practice in different countries, ranging from strict curfew like lock down to selective lock down (also called smart lock down) to no lock down at all. Proponents of no lock down favored the hypothesis of ‘herd immunity’. In Japan and some other developed countries, the main emphasis has been on identification of positive case through mass testing. Although, if it made any difference in the morbidity or mortality, is anyone’s guess. However, the use of mask by all and identification and separation of the infective (not all infected) persons has led Japan to control the spread better than many other countries. The author emphasizes that we shall need to continue our all-out efforts to defeat the virus for many more months if not years. Key words: Corona virus disease; COVID-19; Pandemic; Isolation Citation: Morimoto Y. It’s a long war; not over yet! Anaesth. pain intensive care 2021;25(1):13-14. DOI: 10.35975/apic.v25i1.1427 Accepted: 25 December 2020

scholarly journals A Pivotal Restructuring of Modeling the Control of COVID-19 During and After Massive Vaccinations for the Next Few Years

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose B Cruz ◽  
Tirso A Ronquillo ◽  
Ralph G B Sangalang ◽  
Albertson D Amante ◽  
Divina G D Ronquillo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Closed Loop ◽  
The Other ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Loop Model ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Time Rate ◽  
Direct Observations ◽  
The Social

Abstract This paper presents a pivotal restructuring of modeling the control of COVID-19 even when massive vaccination is in progress. A new closed loop mathematical model to demonstrate how direct observations of the epidemiological compartments of population could be mapped to inputs, such that the social spread of the disease is asymptotically subdued. Mathematical details of the stabilization and robustness are included. A new engineered closed loop model is designed to control the spread of COVID-19 or its variants—that is, one input directly increases the time-rate of the compartment of population free of virus, and the other input directly changes the time-rate of the susceptible compartment of population. Both inputs have collateral opposite influences on the time-rate of the infected compartment of population. The loop is closed around the new input-output model and designed so that the outputs reach the desired asymptotes. New surges of disease spread are not possible in appropriately designed stable closed loop models. However, extensive testing, contact tracing, and medical treatment of those found infected, must be maintained.

Comparison of one-year prognosis of patients classified as chronic critical lower limb ischaemia according to TASC II or European consensus definition in the COPART cohort

VASA ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 0220-0228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marion Vircoulon ◽  
Carine Boulon ◽  
Ileana Desormais ◽  
Philippe Lacroix ◽  
Victor Aboyans ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Medical Treatment ◽  
Critical Limb Ischaemia ◽  
Limb Ischaemia ◽  
Medical Group ◽  
Consensus Definition ◽  
Transcutaneous Oxygen ◽  
European Consensus ◽  
Group A ◽  
One Year ◽  
Group B

Background: We compared one-year amputation and survival rates in patients fulfilling 1991 European consensus critical limb ischaemia (CLI) definition to those clas, sified as CLI by TASC II but not European consensus (EC) definition. Patients and methods: Patients were selected from the COPART cohort of hospitalized patients with peripheral occlusive arterial disease suffering from lower extremity rest pain or ulcer and who completed one-year follow-up. Ankle and toe systolic pressures and transcutaneous oxygen pressure were measured. The patients were classified into two groups: those who could benefit from revascularization and those who could not (medical group). Within these groups, patients were separated into those who had CLI according to the European consensus definition (EC + TASC II: group A if revascularization, group C if medical treatment) and those who had no CLI by the European definition but who had CLI according to the TASC II definition (TASC: group B if revascularization and D if medical treatment). Results: 471 patients were included in the study (236 in the surgical group, 235 in the medical group). There was no difference according to the CLI definition for survival or cardiovascular event-free survival. However, major amputations were more frequent in group A than in group B (25 vs 12 %, p = 0.046) and in group C than in group D (38 vs 20 %, p = 0.004). Conclusions: Major amputation is twice as frequent in patients with CLI according to the historical European consensus definition than in those classified to the TASC II definition but not the EC. Caution is required when comparing results of recent series to historical controls. The TASC II definition of CLI is too wide to compare patients from clinical trials so we suggest separating these patients into two different stages: permanent (TASC II but not EC definition) and critical ischaemia (TASC II and EC definition).

scholarly journals Lyell, the Geikies and Croll's observations on terrestrial glacial sediments and landforms

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
James ROSE
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Glacial Sediments ◽  
Direct Observations ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Status ◽  
Social And Physical Environment ◽  
Glacial Landforms

ABSTRACT Within the context of the work and achievements of James Croll, this paper reviews the records of direct observations of glacial landforms and sediments made by Charles Lyell, Archibald and James Geikie and James Croll himself, in order to evaluate their contributions to the sciences of glacial geology and Quaternary environmental change. The paper outlines the social and physical environment of Croll's youth and contrasts this with the status and experiences of Lyell and the Geikies. It also outlines the character and role of the ‘Glasgow School’ of geologists, who stimulated Croll's interest into the causes of climate change and directed his focus to the glacial and ‘interglacial’ deposits of central Scotland. Contributions are outlined in chronological order, drawing attention to: (i) Lyell's high-quality observations and interpretations of glacial features in Glen Clova and Strathmore and his subsequent rejection of the glacial theory in favour of processes attributed to floating icebergs; (ii) the significant impact of Archibald Geikie's 1863 paper on the ‘glacial drift of Scotland’, which firmly established the land-ice theory; (iii) the fact that, despite James Croll's inherent dislike of geology and fieldwork, he provided high-quality descriptions and interpretations of the landforms and sediments of central Scotland in order to test his theory of climate change; and (iv) the great communication skills of James Geikie, enhanced by contacts and evidence from around the world. It is concluded that whilst direct observations of glacial landforms and sediments were critical to the long-term development of the study of glaciation, the acceptance of this theory was dependent also upon the skills, personality and status of the Geikies and Croll, who developed and promoted the concepts. Sadly, the subsequent rejection of the land-ice concept by Lyell resulted in the same factors challenging the acceptance of the glacial theory.

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