scholarly journals Spatio-temporal Evolution of Water-Energy-Food System Risk from the Provincial Perspective: A Case Study of China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tonghui Ding ◽  
Junfei Chen ◽  
Ming Li
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Lower Risk ◽  
Food System ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Development Level ◽  
Resource Endowment ◽  
System Risk ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract In this paper, the definition of Water-energy-food system risk (WEF-R) was firstly defined based on stability, coordination and sustainability. Set pair analysis and risk matrix were applied to assess the spatio-temporal dynamics of WEF-R in China from 2008 to 2017. The research results showed that stability subsystem had the greatest influence on the WEF-R, and sustainability subsystem was an important factor affecting the WEF-R. According to the spatial-temporal analysis, the risk levels of coordination and sustainable subsystems showed a gradual downward trend, while that of stability subsystem showed small fluctuations from 2008 to 2017. In terms of the WEF-R level, it presented a decreasing trend of small fluctuations. In addition, the higher-risk areas of stability subsystem and lower-risk areas of sustainability subsystem, which were mainly centralized in southeast coastal and central regions, were consistent with the areas of good economic development level and high level of urbanization. While the lower-risk areas of stability subsystem and higher-risk areas of sustainability subsystem, which were mainly centralized in the northwest regions, brought into correspondence with the areas of good resource endowment but lower levels of economic development. Therefore, the spatial differences of economic development level and resource endowment were the main factors affecting the spatial pattern of the WEF-R level in China. Therefore, policy makers should focus on WEF-R and implement measures to improve the sustainable development of WEF nexus.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal epidemiology of the tuberculosis incidence rate in Iran 2008 to 2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Behzad Kiani ◽  
Amene Raouf Rahmati ◽  
Robert Bergquist ◽  
Soheil Hashtarkhani ◽  
Neda Firouraghi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Temporal Pattern ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Spatial Scan Statistic ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract Background Effective reduction of tuberculosis (TB) requires information on the distribution of TB incidence rate across time and location. This study aims to identify the spatio-temporal pattern of TB incidence rate in Iran between 2008 and 2018. Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted on aggregated TB data (50,500 patients) at the provincial level provided by the Ministry of Health in Iran between 2008 and 2018. The Anselin Local Moran’s I and Getis-Ord Gi* were performed to identify the spatial variations of the disease. Furthermore, spatial scan statistic was employed for purely temporal and spatio-temporal analyses. In all instances, the null hypothesis of no clusters was rejected at p ≤ 0.05. Results The overall incidence rate of TB decreased from 13.46 per 100,000 (95% CI: 13.19–13.73) in 2008 to 10.88 per 100,000 (95% CI: 10.65–11.11) in 2018. The highest incidence rate of TB was observed in southeast and northeast of Iran for the whole study period. Additionally, spatial cluster analysis discovered Khuzestan Province, in the West of the country, having significantly higher rates than neighbouring provinces in terms of both total TB and smear-positive pulmonary TB (SPPTB). Purely temporal analysis showed that high-rate and low-rate clusters were predominantly distributed in the time periods 2010–2014 and 2017–2018. Spatio-temporal results showed that the statistically significant clusters were mainly distributed from centre to the east during the study period. Some high-trend TB and SPPTB statistically significant clusters were found. Conclusion The results provided an overview of the latest TB spatio-temporal status In Iran and identified decreasing trends of TB in the 2008–2018 period. Despite the decreasing incidence rate, there is still need for screening, and targeting of preventive interventions, especially in high-risk areas. Knowledge of the spatio-temporal pattern of TB can be useful for policy development as the information regarding the high-risk areas would contribute to the selection of areas needed to be targeted for the expansion of health facilities.

scholarly journals Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the 2019-nCoV Epidemic at the County Level in Hubei Province, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 2563 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wentao Yang ◽  
Min Deng ◽  
Chaokui Li ◽  
Jincai Huang
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Spatial Interaction ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Temporal Patterns ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
County Level ◽  
Spatial Clusters ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Understanding the spatio-temporal characteristics or patterns of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemic is critical in effectively preventing and controlling this epidemic. However, no research analyzed the spatial dependency and temporal dynamics of 2019-nCoV. Consequently, this research aims to detect the spatio-temporal patterns of the 2019-nCoV epidemic using spatio-temporal analysis methods at the county level in Hubei province. The Mann–Kendall and Pettitt methods were used to identify the temporal trends and abrupt changes in the time series of daily new confirmed cases, respectively. The local Moran’s I index was applied to uncover the spatial patterns of the incidence rate, including spatial clusters and outliers. On the basis of the data from January 26 to February 11, 2020, we found that there were 11 areas with different types of temporal patterns of daily new confirmed cases. The pattern characterized by an increasing trend and abrupt change is mainly attributed to the improvement in the ability to diagnose the disease. Spatial clusters with high incidence rates during the period were concentrated in Wuhan Metropolitan Area due to the high intensity of spatial interaction of the population. Therefore, enhancing the ability to diagnose the disease and controlling the movement of the population can be confirmed as effective measures to prevent and control the regional outbreak of the epidemic.

scholarly journals Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Feed Grain Demand of Dairy Cows in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 663 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Yang Dong ◽  
Bei Bei Ma ◽  
Chun Xia LU
Keyword(s):  
Dairy Cows ◽  
Dairy Cow ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Market Environment ◽  
Relative Level ◽  
Resource Endowment ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Feeding Technology

As the income of urban and rural residents has increased in recent decades in China, dairy products have become an important part of the Chinese diet. Therefore, keeping up with the growing demand for feed grain for dairy cows is a critical issue of feed grain security. Utilizing traditional statistical and spatial statistical methods, this study analyzes the spatio-temporal dynamics of dairy cow feed grain (DCFG) demand on the provincial, regional, and national levels across China from 1990 to 2016. Additionally, this paper explores the impacts of various factors on the spatio-temporal dynamics of DCFG demand using the Geo-Detector method. The results demonstrate that: (1) the temporal dynamics of DCFG demand can be divided into three stages of slow growth, rapid growth, and high-level stability, and the relative level of DCFG demand in the whole animal husbandry tends to decline; (2) at the regional and national levels, the spatial concentration of high DCFG demand has intensified; in particular, North China was the region where the largest demand for DCFG was localized and was increasing at the highest rate; (3) based on the hot spot analysis of provincial DCFG demand, the high and low demand provinces of DCFG have sharp characteristic contrast from north to south China; (4) the spatio-temporal dynamics of DCFG demand in China were essentially co-affected by the four groups of factors (e.g., resource endowment, feeding scale, feeding technology, and market environment), of which resource endowment and feeding scale were the dominant factors. Therefore, in the future, dairy cow feeding in China should promote grain-saving feeding technology, improve the utilization of forage, expand large-scale feeding, and create a good market environment to ensure the reasonable development and sustainability of DCFG demand.

scholarly journals An Empirical Study of the Measurement of Spatial-Temporal Patterns and Obstacles in the Green Development of Northeast China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (23) ◽  
pp. 10190
Author(s):  
Yongsheng Sun ◽  
Lianjun Tong ◽  
Daqian Liu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
Temporal Patterns ◽  
Indicator System ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Level Indicator ◽  
Development Level ◽  
Green Development ◽  
Resource Endowment ◽  
Development Levels

Green development is not only important for realizing a sustainable development strategy, but also a key approach for constructing an ecological civilization and transforming economic development. On the basis the development concept of a coordinated human–earth relationship and the paradigm of the process–pattern mechanism, this research adopted the drivers, pressures, state, impact, and response (DPSIR) model to build a green development level indicator system. The established indicator system is then applied to explore the spatial-temporal patterns and obstacles in the green development of 34 prefectural cities in Northeast China from 2008 to 2017 by the use of the entropy weight TOPSIS model, the obstacle model and the GIS spatial visualization method. There are three main findings. First, during the research period, the spatial evolution of the green development level of cities in Northeast China has gradually shifted from a small gap at an overall low level to a large gap at an overall high level; the spatial pattern of the green development level in these cities is characterized by a decrease from north to south and obvious spatial agglomeration effects. Second, specific findings in this research fail to indicate that the correlation between the economic development level and green development level of cities in Northeast China is entirely positive. That is, cities with higher economic development levels do not necessarily have higher green development levels, while some cities with lower economic development levels did present higher green development levels, which may be related to each region’s resources and environmental carrying capacity. Third, the mechanisms influencing spatial-temporal variation in the green development level of cities in Northeast China are not identical. Among them, resource endowment conditions, economic development status and government investment scale are playing a vital role in changes in the regional green development level, and they are also behind the diverse evolutionary characteristics presented in the different stages of regional green development. For the cities in Northeast China, in the process of promoting green development and to consolidate their existing green development level, efforts should be made to overcome inefficiencies in socioeconomic growth and to continuously enhance ecological protection and environmental governance. Moreover, it is essential to promote incremental increases in the green development level on the basis of the local conditions through the ingestion, absorption and combination of each city’s own characteristics with lessons from the successful experience of different types of cities. In the future, our research should fully consider the role of urbanization, industrial structure, population density, institutional mechanisms, environmental protection supervision, scientific and technological progress and other factors on the green development level in Northeast China and seek an important entry point to achieve regional human–earth coordination.

Fog climatology analyses in coastal fog ecosystem at the Atacama Desert/Chile – spatio-temporal analysis of fog water characteristics and variability

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Carlos Pastene ◽  
Alexander Siegmund ◽  
Camilo del Río ◽  
Pablo Osses
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
Atacama Desert ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Local Network ◽  
Fog Water ◽  
Water Characteristics ◽  
Vertical Range ◽  
Spatio Temporal

<p>The coastal Chilean Atacama Desert comprise some of the driest areas of the world with anual mean precipitation partly less than 1 mm/year, like in the Tarapacá region. It is in these environments, where fog plays a relevant role for local ecosystems, like the so called <em>Tillandsia</em> Lomas. These fog ecosystems contain <em>Tillandsia landbeckii</em> as an endemic species, which covers a vertical range of about 800 to 1,250 m, related to fog availability. The study area “Oyarbide” (20°29’ S, 70°03’ W) is situated inland desert, over a range of 300 m elevation where the advective and orographic fog penetrate far enough to reach the east border of the site at around 1,200 m.</p> <p>On local level, the understanding of the fog climate characteristics and variability is still poor as well as knowledge about the driving parameters, the temporal dynamics and spatial gradients. For this reason, various parameters of fog climate are analysed and characterised on the basis of a local station network in order to determine the local fog climatology.</p> <p>From 2016, several high quality climatological stations (Thies Clima) were installed in “Oyarbide”, located in a transect from ca. 1,160 m to ca. 1,350 m in a distance between 10.3 km to 10.7 km from the coast. The local network of climate stations is generating a high temporal and spatial acquisition of climatological data of standard fog water (2 m), air temperature & humidity (2 m), surface temperature (5 cm), wind speed & direction (10 m & 2 m), air pressure, global radiation, leaf wetness and dew every 10 minutes until nowadays. Additionally, ten mini fog collectors (Mini FCs) were installed at the beginning 2019, covering a surface of ca. 3 km<sup>2</sup>, generating a monthly data of ground fog water collected (50 cm).</p> <p>First spatio-temporal analyses of different parameters of the local fog climate will be presented. The results of the study show a seasonal, monthly and daily variability, with altitudinal and vertical differences and oscillation. The results will serve as input for the understanding of the fog variability into hyperarid zones.</p>

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Brazil: seasonal travelling waves and determinants of regional synchrony

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikhail Churakov ◽  
Christian J. Villabona-Arenas ◽  
Moritz U.G. Kraemer ◽  
Henrik Salje ◽  
Simon Cauchemez
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Mosquito Control ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Travelling Waves ◽  
Seasonal Pattern ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Vector Ecology ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Dengue Epidemics

AbstractDengue continues to be the most important vector-borne viral disease globally and in Brazil, where more than 1.4 million cases and over 500 deaths were reported in 2016. Mosquito control programmes and other interventions have not stopped the alarming trend of increasingly large epidemics in the past few years.Here, we analyzed monthly dengue cases reported in Brazil between 2001 and 2016 to better characterize the key drivers of dengue epidemics. Spatio-temporal analysis revealed recurring travelling waves of disease occurrence. Using wavelet methods, we characterised the average seasonal pattern of dengue in Brazil, which starts in the western states of Acre and Rondônia, then travels eastward to the coast before reaching the northeast of the country. Only two states in the north of Brazil (Roraima and Amapá) did not follow the countrywide pattern and had inconsistent timing of dengue epidemics throughout the study period.We also explored epidemic synchrony and timing of annual dengue cycles in Brazilian regions. Using gravity style models combined with climate factors, we showed that both human mobility and vector ecology contribute to spatial patterns of dengue occurrence.This study offers a characterization of the spatial dynamics of dengue in Brazil and its drivers, which could inform intervention strategies against dengue and other arboviruses.Author summaryIn this paper we studied the synchronization of dengue epidemics in Brazilian regions. We found that a typical dengue season in Brazil can be described as a wave travelling from the western part of the country towards the east, with the exception of the two most northern equatorial states that experienced inconsistent seasonality of dengue epidemics.We found that the spatial structure of dengue cases is driven by both climate and human mobility patterns. In particular, precipitation was the most important factor for the seasonality of dengue at finer spatial resolutions.Our findings increase our understanding of large scale dengue patterns and could be used to enhance national control programs against dengue and other arboviruses.

scholarly journals Arabian Sea Tropical Cyclones: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis in Support of Natural Hazard Risk Appraisal in Oman

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suad Al-Manji ◽  
Gordon Mitchell ◽  
Amna Al Ruheili
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
The North ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Extreme Winds

Tropical cyclones [TCs] are a common natural hazard that have significantly impacted Oman. Over the period 1881–2019, 41 TC systems made landfall in Oman, each associated with extreme winds, storm surges and significant flash floods, often resulting in loss of life and substantial damage to infrastructure. TCs affect Omani coastal areas from Muscat in the north to Salalah in the south. However, developing a better understanding of the high-risk regions is needed, and is of particular interest in disaster risk reduction institutions in Oman. This study aims to find and map TC tracks and their spatio-temporal distribution to landfall in Oman to identify the high-risk areas. The analysis uses Kernel Density Estimation [KDE] and Linear Direction Mean [LDM] methods to better identify the spatio-temporal distribution of TC tracks and their landfall in Oman. The study reveals clear seasonal and monthly patterns. This knowledge will help to improve disaster planning for the high-risk areas.

scholarly journals Analysis On The Spatial Differentiation Characteristics of Poverty Risk Caused By Disaster Under The Stress of Geological Disasters – A Case Study of Sichuan Province

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingshun Xiang ◽  
Linsen Duan ◽  
Fengran Wei ◽  
Jin Yang ◽  
Wenheng Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Regional Development ◽  
Spatial Differentiation ◽  
Sichuan Province ◽  
Disaster Prevention ◽  
Chengdu Plain ◽  
Geological Disasters ◽  
Poverty Risk ◽  
Development Level ◽  
Risk Areas

Abstract Research on the poverty risk caused by disasters in disaster - prone areas is a useful exploration to coordinate social economic development with disaster prevention and reduction, and is of great significance to regional sustainable development. Based on statistical data and spatial data, this paper takes Sichuan Province as the typical research area. Remote sensing and geographic information technology are used to study the poverty risk caused by disasters based on the quantitative evaluation of geological disasters risk and regional development level. the spatial differentiation characteristics of poverty risk caused by disasters are explored on the 1 km × 1 km grid scale. The results indicate that: (1) The overall risk of geological disasters in Sichuan Province is relatively high, with high and relatively high risk areas accounting for more than 40%, low and relatively low risk areas accounting for less than 30%. The risks in Mountain and Ravine Areas are significantly higher than other areas. (2) The regional development level in Sichuan Province is relatively high, but with significant the spatial differences. The development level of high-altitude areas and remote mountainous areas is quite different from that of the Chengdu Plain in the middle Sichuan Province. the problem of uneven development in the east, middle, and west is prominent. (3) The poverty risk caused by disasters is high, and the spatial pattern presents a characteristic of “high in the west and low in the east” with high positive spatial correlation. High - High Cluster Areas are mainly distributed in western and southwestern Sichuan. Low - Low Outlier Areas are mainly distributed in Chengdu Plain and Hilly Areas of Sichuan Basin. High - Low Outlier and Low - High Outlier Areas occupy a relatively small percentage with scattered distribution. This paper provides a reference for the coordinated management of disaster prevention and reduction, as well as social and economic development in underdeveloped areas.

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