scholarly journals Spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Brazil: seasonal travelling waves and determinants of regional synchrony

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikhail Churakov ◽  
Christian J. Villabona-Arenas ◽  
Moritz U.G. Kraemer ◽  
Henrik Salje ◽  
Simon Cauchemez
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Mosquito Control ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Travelling Waves ◽  
Seasonal Pattern ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Vector Ecology ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Dengue Epidemics

AbstractDengue continues to be the most important vector-borne viral disease globally and in Brazil, where more than 1.4 million cases and over 500 deaths were reported in 2016. Mosquito control programmes and other interventions have not stopped the alarming trend of increasingly large epidemics in the past few years.Here, we analyzed monthly dengue cases reported in Brazil between 2001 and 2016 to better characterize the key drivers of dengue epidemics. Spatio-temporal analysis revealed recurring travelling waves of disease occurrence. Using wavelet methods, we characterised the average seasonal pattern of dengue in Brazil, which starts in the western states of Acre and Rondônia, then travels eastward to the coast before reaching the northeast of the country. Only two states in the north of Brazil (Roraima and Amapá) did not follow the countrywide pattern and had inconsistent timing of dengue epidemics throughout the study period.We also explored epidemic synchrony and timing of annual dengue cycles in Brazilian regions. Using gravity style models combined with climate factors, we showed that both human mobility and vector ecology contribute to spatial patterns of dengue occurrence.This study offers a characterization of the spatial dynamics of dengue in Brazil and its drivers, which could inform intervention strategies against dengue and other arboviruses.Author summaryIn this paper we studied the synchronization of dengue epidemics in Brazilian regions. We found that a typical dengue season in Brazil can be described as a wave travelling from the western part of the country towards the east, with the exception of the two most northern equatorial states that experienced inconsistent seasonality of dengue epidemics.We found that the spatial structure of dengue cases is driven by both climate and human mobility patterns. In particular, precipitation was the most important factor for the seasonality of dengue at finer spatial resolutions.Our findings increase our understanding of large scale dengue patterns and could be used to enhance national control programs against dengue and other arboviruses.

scholarly journals Arctic avian predators synchronise their spring migration with the northern progression of snowmelt

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Teja Curk ◽  
Ivan Pokrovsky ◽  
Nicolas Lecomte ◽  
Tomas Aarvak ◽  
David F. Brinker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Migratory Species ◽  
Migration Patterns ◽  
Predator Species ◽  
Movement Data ◽  
Breeding Grounds ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Spring Snowmelt

Abstract Migratory species display a range of migration patterns between irruptive (facultative) to regular (obligate), as a response to different predictability of resources. In the Arctic, snow directly influences resource availability. The causes and consequences of different migration patterns of migratory species as a response to the snow conditions remains however unexplored. Birds migrating to the Arctic are expected to follow the spring snowmelt to optimise their arrival time and select for snow-free areas to maximise prey encounter en-route. Based on large-scale movement data, we compared the migration patterns of three top predator species of the tundra in relation to the spatio-temporal dynamics of snow cover. The snowy owl, an irruptive migrant, the rough-legged buzzard, with an intermediary migration pattern, and the peregrine falcon as a regular migrant, all followed, as expected, the spring snowmelt during their migrations. However, the owl stayed ahead, the buzzard stayed on, and the falcon stayed behind the spatio-temporal peak in snowmelt. Although none of the species avoided snow-covered areas, they presumably used snow presence as a cue to time their arrival at their breeding grounds. We show the importance of environmental cues for species with different migration patterns.

scholarly journals Early alterations of large-scale brain networks temporal dynamics in young children with autism

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aurélie Bochet ◽  
Holger Franz Sperdin ◽  
Tonia Anahi Rihs ◽  
Nada Kojovic ◽  
Martina Franchini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Developmental Stages ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Brain Networks ◽  
Autism Spectrum ◽  
Brain Network ◽  
Clustering Methods ◽  
Early Developmental Stages ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Early Developmental

AbstractAutism spectrum disorders (ASD) are associated with disruption of large-scale brain network. Recently, we found that directed functional connectivity alterations of social brain networks are a core component of atypical brain development at early developmental stages in ASD. Here, we investigated the spatio-temporal dynamics of whole-brain neuronal networks at a subsecond scale in 113 toddlers and preschoolers (66 with ASD) using an EEG microstate approach. We first determined the predominant microstates using established clustering methods. We identified five predominant microstate (labeled as microstate classes A–E) with significant differences in the temporal dynamics of microstate class B between the groups in terms of increased appearance and prolonged duration. Using Markov chains, we found differences in the dynamic syntax between several maps in toddlers and preschoolers with ASD compared to their TD peers. Finally, exploratory analysis of brain–behavioral relationships within the ASD group suggested that the temporal dynamics of some maps were related to conditions comorbid to ASD during early developmental stages.

scholarly journals Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the 2019-nCoV Epidemic at the County Level in Hubei Province, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 2563 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wentao Yang ◽  
Min Deng ◽  
Chaokui Li ◽  
Jincai Huang
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Spatial Interaction ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Temporal Patterns ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
County Level ◽  
Spatial Clusters ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Understanding the spatio-temporal characteristics or patterns of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemic is critical in effectively preventing and controlling this epidemic. However, no research analyzed the spatial dependency and temporal dynamics of 2019-nCoV. Consequently, this research aims to detect the spatio-temporal patterns of the 2019-nCoV epidemic using spatio-temporal analysis methods at the county level in Hubei province. The Mann–Kendall and Pettitt methods were used to identify the temporal trends and abrupt changes in the time series of daily new confirmed cases, respectively. The local Moran’s I index was applied to uncover the spatial patterns of the incidence rate, including spatial clusters and outliers. On the basis of the data from January 26 to February 11, 2020, we found that there were 11 areas with different types of temporal patterns of daily new confirmed cases. The pattern characterized by an increasing trend and abrupt change is mainly attributed to the improvement in the ability to diagnose the disease. Spatial clusters with high incidence rates during the period were concentrated in Wuhan Metropolitan Area due to the high intensity of spatial interaction of the population. Therefore, enhancing the ability to diagnose the disease and controlling the movement of the population can be confirmed as effective measures to prevent and control the regional outbreak of the epidemic.

scholarly journals Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Feed Grain Demand of Dairy Cows in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 663 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Yang Dong ◽  
Bei Bei Ma ◽  
Chun Xia LU
Keyword(s):  
Dairy Cows ◽  
Dairy Cow ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Market Environment ◽  
Relative Level ◽  
Resource Endowment ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Feeding Technology

As the income of urban and rural residents has increased in recent decades in China, dairy products have become an important part of the Chinese diet. Therefore, keeping up with the growing demand for feed grain for dairy cows is a critical issue of feed grain security. Utilizing traditional statistical and spatial statistical methods, this study analyzes the spatio-temporal dynamics of dairy cow feed grain (DCFG) demand on the provincial, regional, and national levels across China from 1990 to 2016. Additionally, this paper explores the impacts of various factors on the spatio-temporal dynamics of DCFG demand using the Geo-Detector method. The results demonstrate that: (1) the temporal dynamics of DCFG demand can be divided into three stages of slow growth, rapid growth, and high-level stability, and the relative level of DCFG demand in the whole animal husbandry tends to decline; (2) at the regional and national levels, the spatial concentration of high DCFG demand has intensified; in particular, North China was the region where the largest demand for DCFG was localized and was increasing at the highest rate; (3) based on the hot spot analysis of provincial DCFG demand, the high and low demand provinces of DCFG have sharp characteristic contrast from north to south China; (4) the spatio-temporal dynamics of DCFG demand in China were essentially co-affected by the four groups of factors (e.g., resource endowment, feeding scale, feeding technology, and market environment), of which resource endowment and feeding scale were the dominant factors. Therefore, in the future, dairy cow feeding in China should promote grain-saving feeding technology, improve the utilization of forage, expand large-scale feeding, and create a good market environment to ensure the reasonable development and sustainability of DCFG demand.

Exploring Intra-Urban Travel Mobility using Large-Scale Taxi Global Positioning System Trajectories

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Haixiao Wang ◽  
Fang Liu ◽  
Jinjun Tang
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Central Business District ◽  
Operation Efficiency ◽  
Temporal Properties ◽  
Harbin City ◽  
Residential District ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Gps Devices ◽  
Business District

Using taxi GPS trajectories data is of very importance to explore Spatio-temporal features of human mobility in transportation designing and planning. The data were collected from taxi GPS devices in Harbin city during a week. The taxi trips are extracted from GPS data, and travel distance and time in occupied and vacant states are firstly used to investigate the human mobility. Then, the urban area is divided into 400 grids. Furthermore, travelling network corresponding to taxi trips are designed to further examine the dynamics of mobility, in which the grid are considered as nodes and edge weights are defined as total number of trips among nodes. We observe some basic statistical features of network: degree, edge weights, clustering coefficients and network structure entropy. We also use the correlation between strength and degree to analyze the significance of nodes. Based on network analysis, we select two grids, a central business district and a residential district with high degree and strength, to study the spatial and temporal properties of trips that start from and end at these two grids. Finally, the correlation between trip volume and operation efficiency is explored and we find that hourly trip volume express negative correlation with operation efficiency.

Fog climatology analyses in coastal fog ecosystem at the Atacama Desert/Chile – spatio-temporal analysis of fog water characteristics and variability

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Carlos Pastene ◽  
Alexander Siegmund ◽  
Camilo del Río ◽  
Pablo Osses
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
Atacama Desert ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Local Network ◽  
Fog Water ◽  
Water Characteristics ◽  
Vertical Range ◽  
Spatio Temporal

<p>The coastal Chilean Atacama Desert comprise some of the driest areas of the world with anual mean precipitation partly less than 1 mm/year, like in the Tarapacá region. It is in these environments, where fog plays a relevant role for local ecosystems, like the so called <em>Tillandsia</em> Lomas. These fog ecosystems contain <em>Tillandsia landbeckii</em> as an endemic species, which covers a vertical range of about 800 to 1,250 m, related to fog availability. The study area “Oyarbide” (20°29’ S, 70°03’ W) is situated inland desert, over a range of 300 m elevation where the advective and orographic fog penetrate far enough to reach the east border of the site at around 1,200 m.</p> <p>On local level, the understanding of the fog climate characteristics and variability is still poor as well as knowledge about the driving parameters, the temporal dynamics and spatial gradients. For this reason, various parameters of fog climate are analysed and characterised on the basis of a local station network in order to determine the local fog climatology.</p> <p>From 2016, several high quality climatological stations (Thies Clima) were installed in “Oyarbide”, located in a transect from ca. 1,160 m to ca. 1,350 m in a distance between 10.3 km to 10.7 km from the coast. The local network of climate stations is generating a high temporal and spatial acquisition of climatological data of standard fog water (2 m), air temperature & humidity (2 m), surface temperature (5 cm), wind speed & direction (10 m & 2 m), air pressure, global radiation, leaf wetness and dew every 10 minutes until nowadays. Additionally, ten mini fog collectors (Mini FCs) were installed at the beginning 2019, covering a surface of ca. 3 km<sup>2</sup>, generating a monthly data of ground fog water collected (50 cm).</p> <p>First spatio-temporal analyses of different parameters of the local fog climate will be presented. The results of the study show a seasonal, monthly and daily variability, with altitudinal and vertical differences and oscillation. The results will serve as input for the understanding of the fog variability into hyperarid zones.</p>

scholarly journals Millennial-scale faunal record reveals differential resilience of European large mammals to human impacts across the Holocene

2016 ◽  
Vol 283 (1827) ◽  
pp. 20152152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer J. Crees ◽  
Chris Carbone ◽  
Robert S. Sommer ◽  
Norbert Benecke ◽  
Samuel T. Turvey
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Mammal Species ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Range Change ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Patterns And Processes ◽  
Species Specific

The use of short-term indicators for understanding patterns and processes of biodiversity loss can mask longer-term faunal responses to human pressures. We use an extensive database of approximately 18 700 mammalian zooarchaeological records for the last 11 700 years across Europe to reconstruct spatio-temporal dynamics of Holocene range change for 15 large-bodied mammal species. European mammals experienced protracted, non-congruent range losses, with significant declines starting in some species approximately 3000 years ago and continuing to the present, and with the timing, duration and magnitude of declines varying individually between species. Some European mammals became globally extinct during the Holocene, whereas others experienced limited or no significant range change. These findings demonstrate the relatively early onset of prehistoric human impacts on postglacial biodiversity, and mirror species-specific patterns of mammalian extinction during the Late Pleistocene. Herbivores experienced significantly greater declines than carnivores, revealing an important historical extinction filter that informs our understanding of relative resilience and vulnerability to human pressures for different taxa. We highlight the importance of large-scale, long-term datasets for understanding complex protracted extinction processes, although the dynamic pattern of progressive faunal depletion of European mammal assemblages across the Holocene challenges easy identification of ‘static’ past baselines to inform current-day environmental management and restoration.

scholarly journals COVID-GAN+: Estimating Human Mobility Responses to COVID-19 through Spatio-temporal Generative Adversarial Networks with Enhanced Features

2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Han Bao ◽  
Xun Zhou ◽  
Yiqun Xie ◽  
Yingxue Zhang ◽  
Yanhua Li
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Heterogeneity ◽  
Real World ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Generative Adversarial Networks ◽  
Generative Adversarial Network ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Estimating human mobility responses to the large-scale spreading of the COVID-19 pandemic is crucial, since its significance guides policymakers to give Non-pharmaceutical Interventions, such as closure or reopening of businesses. It is challenging to model due to complex social contexts and limited training data. Recently, we proposed a conditional generative adversarial network (COVID-GAN) to estimate human mobility response under a set of social and policy conditions integrated from multiple data sources. Although COVID-GAN achieves a good average estimation accuracy under real-world conditions, it produces higher errors in certain regions due to the presence of spatial heterogeneity and outliers. To address these issues, in this article, we extend our prior work by introducing a new spatio-temporal deep generative model, namely, COVID-GAN+. COVID-GAN+ deals with the spatial heterogeneity issue by introducing a new spatial feature layer that utilizes the local Moran statistic to model the spatial heterogeneity strength in the data. In addition, we redesign the training objective to learn the estimated mobility changes from historical average levels to mitigate the effects of spatial outliers. We perform comprehensive evaluations using urban mobility data derived from cell phone records and census data. Results show that COVID-GAN+ can better approximate real-world human mobility responses than prior methods, including COVID-GAN.

scholarly journals Video Question Answering via Hierarchical Spatio-Temporal Attention Networks

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhou Zhao ◽  
Qifan Yang ◽  
Deng Cai ◽  
Xiaofei He ◽  
Yueting Zhuang
Keyword(s):  
Visual Information ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Question Answering ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Temporal Attention ◽  
Attention Networks ◽  
Learning Framework ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Given ◽  
Video Question Answering

Open-ended video question answering is a challenging problem in visual information retrieval, which automatically generates the natural language answer from the referenced video content according to the question. However, the existing visual question answering works only focus on the static image, which may be ineffectively applied to video question answering due to the temporal dynamics of video contents. In this paper, we consider the problem of open-ended video question answering from the viewpoint of spatio-temporal attentional encoder-decoder learning framework. We propose the hierarchical spatio-temporal attention network for learning the joint representation of the dynamic video contents according to the given question. We then develop the encoder-decoder learning method with reasoning recurrent neural networks for open-ended video question answering. We construct a large-scale video question answering dataset. The extensive experiments show the effectiveness of our method.

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