Arabian Sea Tropical Cyclones: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis in Support of Natural Hazard Risk Appraisal in Oman

Tropical cyclones [TCs] are a common natural hazard that have significantly impacted Oman. Over the period 1881–2019, 41 TC systems made landfall in Oman, each associated with extreme winds, storm surges and significant flash floods, often resulting in loss of life and substantial damage to infrastructure. TCs affect Omani coastal areas from Muscat in the north to Salalah in the south. However, developing a better understanding of the high-risk regions is needed, and is of particular interest in disaster risk reduction institutions in Oman. This study aims to find and map TC tracks and their spatio-temporal distribution to landfall in Oman to identify the high-risk areas. The analysis uses Kernel Density Estimation [KDE] and Linear Direction Mean [LDM] methods to better identify the spatio-temporal distribution of TC tracks and their landfall in Oman. The study reveals clear seasonal and monthly patterns. This knowledge will help to improve disaster planning for the high-risk areas.

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Modelling local patterns of child mortality risk: a Bayesian Spatio-temporal analysis

BMC Public Health ◽

10.1186/s12889-020-10016-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Alejandro Lome-Hurtado ◽

Jacques Lartigue-Mendoza ◽

Juan C. Trujillo

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Mexico City ◽

Child Mortality ◽

Mortality Risk ◽

Temporal Analysis ◽

Health Concern ◽

The North ◽

Greater Mexico ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

Child Mortality Rate

Abstract Background Globally, child mortality rate has remained high over the years, but the figure can be reduced through proper implementation of spatially-targeted public health policies. Due to its alarming rate in comparison to North American standards, child mortality is particularly a health concern in Mexico. Despite this fact, there remains a dearth of studies that address its spatio-temporal identification in the country. The aims of this study are i) to model the evolution of child mortality risk at the municipality level in Greater Mexico City, (ii) to identify municipalities with high, medium, and low risk over time, and (iii) using municipality trends, to ascertain potential high-risk municipalities. Methods In order to control for the space-time patterns of data, the study performs a Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis. This methodology permits the modelling of the geographical variation of child mortality risk across municipalities, within the studied time span. Results The analysis shows that most of the high-risk municipalities were in the east, along with a few in the north and west areas of Greater Mexico City. In some of them, it is possible to distinguish an increasing trend in child mortality risk. The outcomes highlight municipalities currently presenting a medium risk but liable to become high risk, given their trend, after the studied period. Finally, the likelihood of child mortality risk illustrates an overall decreasing tendency throughout the 7-year studied period. Conclusions The identification of high-risk municipalities and risk trends may provide a useful input for policymakers seeking to reduce the incidence of child mortality. The results provide evidence that supports the use of geographical targeting in policy interventions.

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Spatio-temporal epidemiology of the tuberculosis incidence rate in Iran 2008 to 2018

BMC Public Health ◽

10.1186/s12889-021-11157-1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Behzad Kiani ◽

Amene Raouf Rahmati ◽

Robert Bergquist ◽

Soheil Hashtarkhani ◽

Neda Firouraghi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Incidence Rate ◽

Policy Development ◽

Temporal Pattern ◽

Temporal Analysis ◽

High Rate ◽

Spatial Scan Statistic ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Risk Areas ◽

Spatio Temporal

Abstract Background Effective reduction of tuberculosis (TB) requires information on the distribution of TB incidence rate across time and location. This study aims to identify the spatio-temporal pattern of TB incidence rate in Iran between 2008 and 2018. Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted on aggregated TB data (50,500 patients) at the provincial level provided by the Ministry of Health in Iran between 2008 and 2018. The Anselin Local Moran’s I and Getis-Ord Gi* were performed to identify the spatial variations of the disease. Furthermore, spatial scan statistic was employed for purely temporal and spatio-temporal analyses. In all instances, the null hypothesis of no clusters was rejected at p ≤ 0.05. Results The overall incidence rate of TB decreased from 13.46 per 100,000 (95% CI: 13.19–13.73) in 2008 to 10.88 per 100,000 (95% CI: 10.65–11.11) in 2018. The highest incidence rate of TB was observed in southeast and northeast of Iran for the whole study period. Additionally, spatial cluster analysis discovered Khuzestan Province, in the West of the country, having significantly higher rates than neighbouring provinces in terms of both total TB and smear-positive pulmonary TB (SPPTB). Purely temporal analysis showed that high-rate and low-rate clusters were predominantly distributed in the time periods 2010–2014 and 2017–2018. Spatio-temporal results showed that the statistically significant clusters were mainly distributed from centre to the east during the study period. Some high-trend TB and SPPTB statistically significant clusters were found. Conclusion The results provided an overview of the latest TB spatio-temporal status In Iran and identified decreasing trends of TB in the 2008–2018 period. Despite the decreasing incidence rate, there is still need for screening, and targeting of preventive interventions, especially in high-risk areas. Knowledge of the spatio-temporal pattern of TB can be useful for policy development as the information regarding the high-risk areas would contribute to the selection of areas needed to be targeted for the expansion of health facilities.

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Modelling Local Patterns of Children Mortality. A Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis.

10.21203/rs.2.11961/v1 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Alejandro Lome-Hurtado ◽

Jacques Lartigue Mendoza ◽

Juan Carlos Trujillo

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Mortality Risk ◽

Temporal Analysis ◽

Health Concern ◽

North West ◽

The North ◽

Policy Interventions ◽

Medium Risk ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

Over Time

Abstract Background: The number of death children at the international scale are still high, but with proper spatially-targeted health public policies this number could be reduced. In Mexico, children mortality is a particular health concern due to its alarming rate all throughout North America. The aims of this study are i) to model the change of children mortality risk at the municipality level, (ii) to identify municipalities with high, medium and low risk over time and (iii) to ascertain potential high-risk municipalities across time, using local trends of each municipality in Greater Mexico City. Methods: The study uses Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis to control for space-time patterns of data. This allow to model the geographical variation of the municipalities within the time span studied. Results: The analysis shows that most of the high-risk municipalities are in the north, west, and some in the east; some of such municipalities show an increasing children mortality risk over time. The outcomes highlight some municipalities which show a medium risk currently but are likely to become high risk along the study period. Finally, the odds of children mortality risk illustrate a decreasing tendency over the 7-year framework. Conclusions: Identification of high-risk municipalities may provide a useful input to policy-makers seeking out to reduce the incidence of children mortality, since it would provide evidence to support geographical targeting for policy interventions.

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Modelling Local Patterns of Child Mortality Risk. A Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis.

10.21203/rs.2.11961/v2 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Alejandro Lome-Hurtado ◽

Jacques Lartigue Mendoza ◽

Juan Carlos Trujillo

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Mexico City ◽

Child Mortality ◽

Mortality Risk ◽

Temporal Analysis ◽

Health Concern ◽

The North ◽

Medium Risk ◽

Greater Mexico ◽

Spatio Temporal

Abstract Background : At the international scale the number of child deaths is still high; however, this figure is susceptible to be reduced implementing proper spatially-targeted health public policies. Due to its alarming rate in comparison to North American standards, child mortality is a particular health concern in Mexico. Despite this fact, there remains a dearth of studies that address the spatial-temporal identification of child mortality in Mexico. The aims of this study are i) to model the evolution of child mortality risk at the municipality level in Greater Mexico City, (ii) to identify municipalities with high, medium and low risk over time, and (iii) using municipality trends, to ascertain potential high-risk municipalities. Methods : In order to control for space-time patterns of data, the study performs a Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis. This methodology allows to model the geographical variation of child mortality risk across municipalities within the studied time span. Results : The analysis shows that most of the high-risk municipalities are in the north and west areas of Greater Mexico City, although there coexist some in the east; some of them presenting an increasing child mortality risk trend. The outcomes highlight some municipalities currently presenting a medium risk, but that, given their trend, are likely to become high risk after the studied period. Finally, the likelihood of child mortality risk illustrates an overall decreasing tendency throughout the 7-year studied period. Conclusions : The identification of high-risk municipalities and risk trends may provide a useful input to policy-makers seeking to reduce the incidence of child mortality. The results provide evidence to support geographical targeting for policy interventions.

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Epidemiology of Dengue viral infection in Nepal: 2006-2019

10.1101/2020.08.27.269720 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Komal Raj Rijal ◽

Bipin Adhikari ◽

Bindu Ghimire ◽

Binod Dhungel ◽

Uttam Raj Pyakurel ◽

...

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Temporal Distribution ◽

Temporal Analysis ◽

Emerging Diseases ◽

Standard Deviation Increase ◽

First Report ◽

Vector Borne Diseases ◽

Dengue Outbreak ◽

Epidemiological Trend ◽

Spatio Temporal

AbstractBackgroundDengue is one of the newest emerging diseases in Nepal with increasing burden and geographic spread over the last 14 years. The main objective of this study was to explore the spatio-temporal epidemiological patterns of Dengue since its first report (2006) till 2019 in Nepal.MethodsThis study is a retrospective analysis of dengue data available from the Epidemiological Disease Control Division (EDCD) of Government of Nepal. The data in this study cover the last 14 years (2006-2019) of reported dengue cases in Nepal. Epidemiological trend and spatio-temporal analyses were performed. Maps of reported case incidence were created using QGIS version 3.4.ResultsSince the first report of dengue in a foreigner in 2004, Nepal reported a total of 17,992 dengue cases in 68 districts of Nepal in 2019. The incidence was approximately five times higher in 2018 (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR): 4.8; 95% CI: 1.5 – 15.3) and over 140 times higher in 2019 (IRR: 141.6; CI: 45.8 – 438.4). Population density was not a statistically significant predictor of case incidence. Mean elevation had a negative association with case incidence. A one standard deviation increase in elevation was associated with a 90% decrease in reported case incidence (IRR: 0.10; CI: 0.01 – 0.20). However, the association with mean elevation varied across the years. In comparison to 2016, incidence was greater at higher elevations in 2018 (IRR: 22.7; CI: 6.0 - 86.1) and 2019 (IRR: 9.6; CI: 2.6 - 36.1).ConclusionThere is a high risk of dengue outbreak in the Terai region with increasing spread towards the mid-mountains and beyond as seen over the last 14 years. Urgent measures are required to increase the availability of diagnostics and resources to mitigate future dengue epidemics. Findings from this study can inform the spatio-temporal distribution of dengue and can help in resource allocation and priority setting for future epidemic.Author summaryDengue in humans is caused by four different serotypes (DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3 & DENV-4). Globally it is the most pervasive vector borne diseases with increasing number of cases in recent years. Dengue is one of the youngest emerging diseases in Nepal with increasing cases and spread from the tropical lowland to the highland (hilly) regions. We conducted a spatio-temporal analysis of national data to consolidate the information using QGIS to measure the dengue incidence at district levels of Nepal. Spatio-temporal analysis exploring the incidence and distribution of dengue cases aids in identification of high-risk areas which can ultimately enable national dengue programme to mobilize and allocate resources for the control and treatment. This study shows, the persistent high risk of dengue outbreak in lowland Terai region with annual rise in the risk of spread towards the mid-mountains and beyond. Urgent measures are required to increase the diagnostics and resources to mitigate the epidemic burden of dengue in Terai and peripheral regions.

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Modelling Local Patterns of Child Mortality Risk. A Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis.

10.21203/rs.2.11961/v3 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Alejandro Lome-Hurtado ◽

Jacques Lartigue Mendoza ◽

Juan C. Trujillo

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Mexico City ◽

Child Mortality ◽

Mortality Risk ◽

Temporal Analysis ◽

Health Concern ◽

The North ◽

Greater Mexico ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

Child Mortality Rate

Abstract Background: Globally, child mortality rate is still high; however, this figure is susceptible to be reduced implementing proper spatially-targeted health public policies. Due to its alarming rate in comparison to North American standards, child mortality is a particular health concern in Mexico. Despite this fact, there remains a dearth of studies that address its spatio-temporal identification in the country. The aims of this study are i) to model the evolution of child mortality risk at the municipality level in Greater Mexico City, (ii) to identify municipalities with high, medium, and low risk over time, and (iii) using municipality trends, to ascertain potential high-risk municipalities. Methods: In order to control for the space-time patterns of data, the study performs a Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis. This methodology permits the modelling of the geographical variation of child mortality risk across municipalities, within the studied time span. Results: The analysis shows that most of the high-risk municipalities were in the east, along with a few in the north and west areas of Greater Mexico City. In some of them, it is possible to distinguish an increasing trend in child mortality risk. The outcomes highlight municipalities currently presenting a medium risk but liable to become high risk, given their trend, after the studied period. Finally, the likelihood of child mortality risk illustrates an overall decreasing tendency throughout the 7-year studied period. Conclusions: The identification of high-risk municipalities and risk trends may provide a useful input for policy-makers seeking to reduce the incidence of child mortality. The results provide evidence that support the use of geographical targeting in policy interventions.

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Spatio-temporal analysis of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Euphrates Basin, Turkey

Water Science & Technology Water Supply ◽

10.2166/ws.2021.019 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Okan Mert Katipoğlu ◽

Reşat Acar ◽

Serkan Şenocak

Keyword(s):

Interpolation Method ◽

Temporal Distribution ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Temporal Analysis ◽

Management Plan ◽

Drought Indices ◽

The North ◽

Time Periods ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

Hydrological Droughts

Abstract In this study, the aim was to measure changes in the spatio-temporal distribution of a potential drought hazard area and determine the risk status of various meteorological and hydrological droughts by using the kriging, radial basis function (RBF), and inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation methods. With that goal, in monthly, three-month, and 12-month time periods drought indices were calculated. Spatio-temporal distributions of the droughts were determined with each drought index for the years in which the most severe droughts were experienced. According to the results, the basin is under risk of meteorological drought due to the occurrence of severe and extreme droughts in most of the area, and especially in the north, during the monthly and three-month time periods. During the 12-month period, it was found that most of the basin is under risk of hydrological drought due to the occurrence of severe and extreme droughts, especially in the southern parts. The most effective interpolation method for the prediction of meteorological and hydrological droughts was determined as kriging according to the results of the cross-validation test. It was concluded that a drought management plan should be made, and early warnings and precautions should be applied in the study area.

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Spatial analysis of AIDS in the state of Maranhão: an ecological study 2011-2018

Revista Brasileira de Enfermagem ◽

10.1590/0034-7167-2021-0131 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 75 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Livia Cristina Sousa ◽

Tereza Cristina Silva ◽

Thaís Furtado Ferreira ◽

Arlene de Jesus Mendes Caldas

Keyword(s):

Information System ◽

Spatial Analysis ◽

High Risk ◽

Spatial Autocorrelation ◽

Ecological Study ◽

Health Management ◽

Temporal Distribution ◽

Risk Areas ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

Global And Local

ABSTRACT Objective: Analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of AIDS cases in Maranhão. Methods: Ecological study of AIDS cases in the Notifiable Diseases Information System, 2011-2018. Gross and adjusted incidences were calculated using the Baysean method; then, the Moran Global and Local Indices to observe the existence of spatial autocorrelation of the cases and for the delimitation of high and low risk clusters. Results: 6,349 cases were reported, which were distributed heterogeneously. There was an advance of cases to new areas and persistence in old areas, such as in the capital São Luís and its surroundings. The dissemination did not occur at random, with positive spatial autocorrelation, with evidence of the formation of clusters in the municipalities of São Luís, São José de Ribamar and Paço do Lumiar. Conclusion: High-risk areas have been identified and should be considered a priority for investment in health, management, and organization of health services.

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An Alternative Risk Assessment Model of Urban Waterlogging: A Case Study of Ningbo City

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13020826 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (2) ◽

pp. 826

Author(s):

Meiling Zhou ◽

Xiuli Feng ◽

Kaikai Liu ◽

Chi Zhang ◽

Lijian Xie ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

High Risk ◽

Assessment Model ◽

Risk Assessments ◽

Risk Assessment Model ◽

Risk Area ◽

The North ◽

Coastal Cities ◽

Risk Areas ◽

The City

Influenced by climate change, extreme weather events occur frequently, and bring huge impacts to urban areas, including urban waterlogging. Conducting risk assessments of urban waterlogging is a critical step to diagnose problems, improve infrastructure and achieve sustainable development facing extreme weathers. This study takes Ningbo, a typical coastal city in the Yangtze River Delta, as an example to conduct a risk assessment of urban waterlogging with high-resolution remote sensing images and high-precision digital elevation models to further analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of waterlogging risk. Results indicate that waterlogging risk in the city proper of Ningbo is mainly low risk, accounting for 36.9%. The higher-risk and medium-risk areas have the same proportions, accounting for 18.7%. They are followed by the lower-risk and high-risk areas, accounting for 15.5% and 9.6%, respectively. In terms of space, waterlogging risk in the city proper of Ningbo is high in the south and low in the north. The high-risk area is mainly located to the west of Jiangdong district and the middle of Haishu district. The low-risk area is mainly distributed in the north of Jiangbei district. These results are consistent with the historical situation of waterlogging in Ningbo, which prove the effectiveness of the risk assessment model and provide an important reference for the government to prevent and mitigate waterlogging. The optimized risk assessment model is also of importance for waterlogging risk assessments in coastal cities. Based on this model, the waterlogging risk of coastal cities can be quickly assessed, combining with local characteristics, which will help improve the city’s capability of responding to waterlogging disasters and reduce socio-economic loss.

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Upper-plate structural controls on the segmentation of the Kefalonia Fault (Ionian Sea, Greece)

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15736 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Emmanuel Skourtsos ◽

Haralambos Kranis ◽

Spyridon Mavroulis ◽

Efthimios Lekkas

Keyword(s):

Eastern Mediterranean ◽

Source Parameters ◽

Plate Boundary ◽

Temporal Distribution ◽

Western Coast ◽

African Plate ◽

Plate Structure ◽

The North ◽

Macroseismic Effects ◽

Spatio Temporal

The NNE-SSW, right-lateral Kefalonia Transform Fault (KTF) marks the western termination of the subducting Hellenic slab, which is a part of the oceanic remnant of the African plate. The inception of the KTF, described as a STEP fault, is placed in the Pliocene. KTF is considered to be the most active earthquake source in the Eastern Mediterranean. During the last two decades, four significant earthquakes (M>6.0) have been associated with the KTF. These events are attributed to the reactivation of different segments of the KTF, which are (from North to South) the North Lefkada, South Lefkada, Fiskardo, Paliki and Zakynthos segments: the North Lefkada segment ruptured in the 2003 earthquake, the 2014 Kefalonia events are associated with the Paliki segment and the 2015 Lefkada earthquake with the South Lefkada (and possibly the Fiskardo) segments.The upper plate structure in the islands of Lefkada and Kefalonia is characterized by the Ionian Unit, thrusted over the Paxi (or Pre-Apulian) Unit. The Ionian Thrust, which brings the Ionian over the Paxi Unit, is a main upper-plate NNW-SSE, NE-dipping structure. It runs through the island of Lefkada, to be mapped onshore again at the western coast of Ithaki and at SE Kefalonia. Two other major thrusts are mapped on this island: the Aenos thrust, which has a WNW-ESE strike at the southern part of the island and gradually curves towards NNW-SSE in the west and the Kalo Fault in the northern part. These Pliocene (and still active) structures developed during the late-most stages of thrusting in the Hellenides, strike obliquely to the KTF and appear to abut against it.We suggest that these thrusts control not only the deformation within the upper plate, but also the earthquake segmentation of the KTF. This suggestion is corroborated by the spatio-temporal distribution and source parameters of the recent, well-documented earthquake events and by the macroseismic effects of these earthquakes. The abutment of the Ionian thrust against the KTF marks the southern termination of the Lefkada earthquake segment, which ruptured in the 2003 earthquake, while the Aenos, (or the Kalo) thrust mark the southern end of the Fiskardo segment. The spatial distribution of the Earthquake Environmental Effects related to the four significant events in the last 20 years displays a good correlation with our interpretation: most of the 2003 macroseismic effects are located in the northern part of Lefkada, which belongs to the upper block of the Ionian thrust; similarly, the effects of the 2014 earthquakes of Kefalonia are distributed mainly in the Paliki Peninsula and the southern part of the island that belong to the footwall of the Aenos thrust and the 2015 effects are found in SW Lefkada, which is part of the footwall of the Ionian thrust.We suggest that correlation between upper-plate structure and plate boundary faulting can provide insights in the understanding of faulting pattern in convergent settings, therefore contributing to earthquake management plans.

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