scholarly journals Analysing the Relationship Between Co2 Emissions and GDP in China; A Fractional Integration and Cointegration Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guglielmo Maria Caporale ◽  
Gloria Claudio-Quiroga ◽  
Luis Gil-Alana
Keyword(s):  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Long Memory ◽  
Fractional Integration ◽  
Environmental Policies ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract This paper examines the relationship between the logarithms of CO2 emissions and real GDP in China by applying fractional integration and cointegration methods. These are more general than the standard methods based on the dichotomy between stationary and non-stationary series, allow for a much wider variety of dynamic processes, and provide information about the persistence and long-memory properties of the series and thus on whether or not the effects of shocks are long-lived. The univariate results indicate that the two series are highly persistent, their orders of integration being around 2, whilst the cointegration tests (using both standard and fractional techniques) imply that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between the two variables in first differences, i.e. their growth rates are linked together in the long run. This suggests the need for environmental policies aimed at reducing emissions during periods of economic growth. JEL Classification: C22, C32, Q56

scholarly journals Analysing the relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP in China: a fractional integration and cointegration approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Guglielmo Maria Caporale ◽  
Gloria Claudio-Quiroga ◽  
Luis A. Gil-Alana
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Long Memory ◽  
Fractional Integration ◽  
Environmental Policies ◽  
Dynamic Processes ◽  
Standard Methods ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThis paper examines the relationship between the logarithms of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in China by applying fractional integration and cointegration methods. These are more general than the standard methods based on the dichotomy between stationary and non-stationary series, allow for a much wider variety of dynamic processes, and provide information about the persistence and long-memory properties of the series and thus on whether or not the effects of shocks are long-lived. The univariate results indicate that the two series are highly persistent, their orders of integration being around 2, whilst the cointegration tests (using both standard and fractional techniques) imply that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between the two variables in first differences, i.e. their growth rates are linked together in the long run. This suggests the need for environmental policies aimed at reducing emissions during periods of economic growth.

scholarly journals GDP and population growth: Evidence of fractional cointegration with historical data from 1820 onwards

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Gil-Alana ◽  
Cecilia Font ◽  
Águeda Gil-López
Keyword(s):  
Historical Data ◽  
Fractional Integration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Group Of Seven ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeUsing data from 1820 onwards in a group of seven countries, namely, Australia, Chile, Denmark, France, the UK, Italy and the USA, the authors investigate if there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the two variables (GDP and population).Design/methodology/approachUsing fractional integration and cointegration methods, this paper deals with the analysis of the relationship between GDP and population using historical data.FindingsThe authors’ results show first that the two series are highly persistent, presenting orders of integration close to or above 1 in practically all cases. Testing cointegration between the two variables, the results are quite variable depending on the methodology and the bandwidth numbers used, but if cointegration takes places, it only occurs in the cases of France, Italy and the UK.Research limitations/implicationsThe fact that the orders of integration of all series is close to 1 indicate high levels of persistence with shocks having permanent effects and requiring strong measures to recover the original trends.Practical implicationsAny shock affecting the series will have a permanent nature, persisting forever.Originality/valueUpdated time series techniques based on concepts such as fractional integration and cointegration are used.

scholarly journals The Relationship Between Human Capital and the Economic Growth  in Sudan: علاقة الاستثمار في رأس المال البشري بالنمو الاقتصادي في السودان

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Suha Seifeldin Noureldaim Ahmed, Yousif Saeed Ahmed Amin, Ah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Total Population ◽  
University Education ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Education Expenditure ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
The Relationship

The study aims to test the relationship between investment in human capital and economic growth in Sudan. It assumed that the growth in both of enrolled in different levels of education and government expenditure on education will lead to increase the economic growth in Sudan. The variables were subjected to several econometrics tests, such as Augmented Dickey–Fuller test (ADF), Autoregressive Distributed- lagged Model (ARDL) and the Error Correction Model (ECM) to test the short- and long- term relationship between study variables. The results of long- run parameters of the (ARDL) model showed a positive correlation between real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate and the percentage of enrollment in universities from the total population. Also it showed a positive correlation between real GDP growth and education expenditure as a percentage of Gross National Income (GNI). While the estimated results of the bounds test for co- integration within the (ARDL) methodology results provided evidence of a long- run equilibrium relationship between the real GDP growth and the enrollment ratios of primary, secondary and university levels to the total population. Also provided evidence for a long- run equilibrium relationship between real GDP growth and the education expenditure as a share of GNI. Export of goods and services as a percentage of GDP and inflation rate. While the results of the estimated error correction model (ECM) confirmed that the real GDP growth is adjusted to its equilibrium value in each time period by 93% and 88%- for the two models respectively- of the remaining balance of the period with onetime lag. The study recommended the expansion of university education to raise the rate of economic growth through the development of policies to encourage investment in it, raise the quality of university education and improve the outputs quality, enhance the curricula to keep pace with the modern technology progress, linking education outputs with the needs of the labor market requirements and raising the percentage of education expenditure from GDP, as well as to encourage the governmental educational institutions to develop and diversify their self- financing resources.

Electricity consumption and economic growth in ASEAN

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Ahmad Ghazali Ismail ◽  
Arlinah Abd Rashid ◽  
Azlina Hanif
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Panel Estimation ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bidirectional Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship and causality direction between electricity consumption and economic growth is an important issue in the fields of energy economics and policies towards energy use. Extensive literatures has discussed the issue, but the array of findings provides anything but consensus on either the existence of relations or direction of causality between the variables. This study extends research in this area by studying the long-run and causal relations between economic growth, electricity consumption, labour and capital based on the neo-classical one sector aggregate production technology mode using data of electricity consumption and real GDP for ASEAN from the year 1983 to 2012. The analysis is conducted using advanced panel estimation approaches and found no causality in the short run while in the long-run, the results indicate that there are bidirectional relationship among variables. This study provides supplementary evidences of relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in ASEAN.

scholarly journals The Corruption-Terrorism Nexus: A Panel Data Approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nahil Boussiga ◽  
Malek Ghdamsi
Keyword(s):  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Major Threat ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Panel Cointegration Test ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Control Of Corruption

<p>Corruption has been increasingly recognized as the major threat to economic development, political stability and peace. It is also acknowledged by international community as the breeding ground for terrorism. This paper examines the relationship between corruption and terrorism in the long run. Previous studies examining the link between these two phenomena used only time series cointegration tests. In this paper, we make use of a dataset for a panel of 123 developed and developing countries over the period 2003-2014. We use Pedroni’s residual-based panel cointegration test and the error correction model-based panel cointegration test developed by Westerlund. In order to obtain more robust results, we use two different measures of corruption which are Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) and Worldwide Control of Corruption Indicator (CC). The results of both tests reject the null hypothesis of no cointegration. we conclude that corruption and terrorism converge. Our findings corroborate results of previous studies.</p>

Long-memory Modelling and Forecasting of the Returns and Volatility of Exchange-traded Notes (ETNs)

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Argel S. Masa ◽  
John Francis T. Diaz
Keyword(s):  
Long Memory ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Warning Sign ◽  
Conditional Heteroskedasticity ◽  
Long Memory Process ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity ◽  
Exchange Traded Notes

This research provides evidence in determining the predictability of exchange-traded notes (ETNs). It utilises commodity, currency and equity ETNs as data samples, and examines the performance of the three combinations of long-memory models, that is, autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average and generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARFIMA-GARCH), autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average and fractionally integrated generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARFIMA-FIGARCH) and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average and hyperbolic generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARFIMA-HYGARCH), and three forecasting horizons, that is, 1-, 5- and 20-step-ahead horizons, to model ETNs returns and volatilities. The article finds long-memory processes in ETNs; however, dual long-memory process in returns and volatilities is not verified. The research also poses a challenge to the weak-form efficiency hypothesis of Fama (1970) because lagged changes determine future values, especially in volatility. The findings also show that differences in the characteristics of commodity, currency and equity ETNs are not concluded because of similarities in ETN traits and several insignificant results. However, the presence of intermediate memory was identified, and should serve as a warning sign for investors not to keep these investments in the long run. Lastly, the ARFIMA-FIGARCH model has a slight edge over the ARFIMA-GARCH and ARFIMA-HYGARCH specifications using 1-, 5- and 20-forecast horizons. JEL Classification: G11, G17

THE NEXUS AMONG TOURISM, URBANISATION AND CO2 EMISSIONS IN SOUTH ASIA: A PANEL ANALYSIS

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-82
Author(s):  
Sakib Bin Amin ◽  
Mahnaz Aftabi Atique
Keyword(s):  
South Asia ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Environmentally Sustainable ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

Purpose – Tourism and urbanisation are two significant determinants of economic growth and have been identified as top contributors to CO2 emissions. We examine the nexus among tourism, urbanisation, and CO2 emissions in South Asia by providing empirical evidence using panel data analysis. Design – Annual data from 1995-2019 is collected from the World Development Indicator 2020 for five South Asian countries: Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Pakistan. Methodology – Durbin-Hausman panel cointegration and LM Bootstrap panel cointegration tests are conducted to check long-run cointegration. Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test is used to detect causal relationship among the variables. Moreover, the PDOLS, PMG ARDL, c-up FMOLS and Generalised Linear Model are used to estimate long-run coefficients of the variables. Findings – We reveal unidirectional causalities running from urbanisation to tourism, urbanisation to CO2 emissions, and tourism to CO2 emissions. Additionally, when heterogeneity of the variables is taken into account, both tourism and urbanisation show positive and significant effect on CO2 emissions in the long-run. Originality of the Research – To our knowledge, no previous study investigates the relationship among tourism, urbanisation and CO2 emissions is South Asia. Our results will guide policy makers to design policies that will promote urbanisation and tourism growth in an environmentally sustainable way.

scholarly journals An International Look at the Growth of Modern Finance

2013 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 73-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Philippon ◽  
Ariell Reshef
Keyword(s):  
Unit Cost ◽  
The United States ◽  
Income Share ◽  
Financial Deregulation ◽  
Skill Intensity ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

We study the rise of finance across a set of now-industrial economies. The long-run pattern of the growth of the income share of finance from the nineteenth century to current times in the United States is similar to some economies, but not all economies reach the same size and instead reach a plateau. The relationship between financial output and income is nonhomothetic and changes three times in this sample. Most of the increase in real GDP per capita from 1870 occurred while financial output and the income share of finance were smaller than their size in 1980. After 1980 the elasticity of income with respect to financial output falls significantly. We find considerable heterogeneity in the size of finance in recent times. There is no evidence for an increase in the unit cost of financial intermediation. We find that information technology and financial deregulation can help explain the increase in relative skill intensity and in relative wages in finance, while common trends, which may be related to financial globalization, also play a role.

scholarly journals The relationship between stock markets of major developed countries and Asian emerging markets

2004 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 201-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wing-Keung Wong ◽  
Jack Penm ◽  
Richard Deane Terrell ◽  
Karen Yann Ching Lim
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
International Diversification ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Stock Market Crash ◽  
Emerging Stock Markets ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Asian Emerging Markets ◽  
The Relationship

With the emergence of new capital markets and liberalization of stock markets in recent years, there has been an increase in investors' interest in international diversification. This is so because international diversification allows investors to have a larger basket of foreign securities to choose from as part of their portfolio assets, so as to enhance the reward-to-volatility ratio. This benefit would be limited if national equity markets tend to move together in the long run. This paper thus studies the issue of co-movement between stock markets in major developed countries and those in Asian emerging markets using the concept of cointegration. We find that there is co-movement between some of the developed and emerging markets, but some emerging markets do differ from the developed markets with which they share a long-run equilibrium relationship. Furthermore, it has been observed that there has been increasing interdependence between most of the developed and emerging markets since the 1987 Stock Market Crash. This interdependence intensified after the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. With this phenomenon of increasing co-movement between developed and emerging stock markets, the benefits of international diversification become limited.

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