Forecasting and Analysis of Time Variation of Parameters of COVID-19 Infection in China Using An Improved SEIR Model

Abstract Background: Due to the emergency pandemic threat, the COVID-19 has attracted widespread attention around the world. Common symptoms of infection were fever, cough, and myalgia fatigue. On January 31, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares this outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).Methods: In order to study the spread of the novel coronavirus pneumonia, this paper proposed an improved SEIR model to simulate the spread of the virus, which includes the effect factor of government intervention. The model parameters are determined based on the daily reported statistical data (up to February 8) of confirmed, suspected, cured, and death. According to utilize the spread rate, the probability of infection of the suspected, the probability of the suspected becoming a confirmed one, the cure rate, the mortality rate, and the quarantine ratio, we performed simulations and parameter calibrations at three region levels, i.e., China, Hubei and non-Hubei respectively. In addition, considering that the government initiated effective prevention and control measures after the outbreak, this paper dynamically estimates all the parameters of the proposed model.Results: The simulation reveals that the parameters of non-Hubei region are not significantly different from Hubei’s. Hubei Province has a high transmission rate, low cure rate, high probability of infection, low effective quarantine rate. since January 31, with the continuous strengthening of epidemic prevention and control measures, all parameters of the model have changed significantly. The parameters of Hubei and non-Hubei regions have the same trend. The trend of all parameters is now moving in a direction that is conducive to reducing the number of confirmed, suspected and fatal cases.Conclusions: The number of infections of the virus initially showed a rapid increase in the trend, and the number of infectious case showed a clear downward shape. With the government to take a variety of prevention and control measures and the efforts of the general medical staff, the number of infection curve on February 22 appeared in the top of the arc pattern, indicating that the inflection point began to appear, but the decline in the number of infections slowly.

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Repercussions of the COVID-19 Health Crisis In the Peruvian Informal Sector

The Journal of Economics Studies and Research ◽

10.5171/2021.948031 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-9

Author(s):

Vilma Andia-Choquepuma ◽

Daniza Juana Leon-Escobedo ◽

Himer Avila-George ◽

orge Sánchez-Garcés ◽

Ruth Elizabeth Villafuerte-Alcántara ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Prevention And Control ◽

Preventive Measures ◽

Control Measures ◽

World Health ◽

Health Crisis ◽

Entry Points ◽

The World ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

Health Organization ◽

And Control

After the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of Coronavirus (COVID-19) a pandemic, the Peruvian government took preventive measures to counteract the spread of the virus by issuing Supreme Decree No. 008-2020-SA. This decree contains prevention and control measures aimed at ports, airports, land entry points, educational centers, transportation and workplaces.

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Improving COVID-19 response: redirecting risk communication efforts towards equity issues

Revista Latinoamericana de Difusión Científica ◽

10.38186/difcie.35.01 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 3 (5) ◽

pp. 3-8

Author(s):

Yisel Hernández Barrios ◽

Luis Fonte Galindo ◽

María del Carmen Zabala Argüelles ◽

Dennis Pérez Chacón

Keyword(s):

Health Problem ◽

Social Communication ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Control Measures ◽

World Health ◽

Equity Issues ◽

The World ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

Health Organization ◽

And Control

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is, to date, the health problem with the highest impact in the 21st century. The World Health Organization has recommended several prevention and control measures to deal with this pandemic. In this context, social communication plays a key role. In this article we argue that the potential of communication efforts to close the gaps in the COVID-19 response worldwide won´t be fully accomplished until they do address equity-related issues.

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Prediction of Different Interventions on the Burden of Drug-resistant Tuberculosis in China: a Dynamic Modeling Study

10.21203/rs.3.rs-637762/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ao Xu ◽

Ze-xuan Wen ◽

Yue Wang ◽

Wei-bing Wang

Keyword(s):

Prevention And Control ◽

Control Measures ◽

World Health ◽

Infectious Period ◽

Predictive Analysis ◽

Progression Rate ◽

Drug Resistant ◽

Cure Rate ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

And Control

Abstract Background. Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the top ten causes of death worldwide. The World Health Organization adopted the “End TB Strategy”, whose goal is to end the global TB epidemic by 2035. However, achieving this goal will be difficult using current prevention and control measures.Methods. A Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model that distinguishes drug-sensitive (DS) and drug-resistant (DR) TB in the entire Chinese population was established. Goodness-of-fit tests and sensitivity analyses were used to assess model performance. Predictive analysis was performed to assess the effect of different prevention and control strategies on DR-TB and achieving the goal of the End TB Strategy: 90% fewer cases of DR-TB by 2035.Results. We used parameter fitting to determine the basic reproduction number of the model as R0 =0.6993. Chi-square test results indicated good model fits for the reported incidences of DS-TB (χ2=0.144, P=1.000) and DR-TB (χ2=0.076, P=1.000). The predictive analysis led to four major projections for the number of cases by 2035. First, if the transmission rate of DR-TB patients reaches 0 during the infectious period, there will be 208,754 fewer cases (failure to achieve to goal). Second, if the progression rate of latently infected people reaches 10%, there will be 255,075 fewer cases (92.2% lower than in 2015). Third, if the overall treatment and cure rate of patients with DS-TB improves to 100%, there will be 150,482 fewer cases (failure to achieve the goal). Fourth, if the cure rate of DR-TB increases to 40%, there will be 253,198 fewer cases (91.5% lower than in 2015).Conclusions. We assessed several prevention and control measures for DR-TB. Interventions that target acquired DR and improvement of the cure rate of DS-TB have limited efficacy. However, interventions that target primary DR-TB, such as reducing the probability of transmission and the rate of disease progression in patients with DR-TB, have better efficacy. Improving treatment compliance and the cure rate of patients with DR-TB can also contribute to attaining the goal of the End TB Strategy.

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Knowledge and Awareness of Dengue Fever

International Journal of Scientific Research in Computer Science Engineering and Information Technology ◽

10.32628/cseit183865 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 219-222

Author(s):

Y. Arockia Suganthi ◽

Chitra K. ◽

J. Magelin Mary

Keyword(s):

Dengue Fever ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Control Measures ◽

Infection Transmission ◽

Standard Guideline ◽

The World ◽

Different Types ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

Dengue Prevention ◽

And Control

Dengue fever is a painful mosquito-borne infection caused by different types of virus in various localities of the world. There is no particular medicine or vaccine to treat person suffering from dengue fever. Dengue viruses are transmitted by the bite of female Aedes (Ae) mosquitoes. Dengue fever viruses are mainly transmitted by Aedes which can be active in tropical or subtropical climates. Aedes Aegypti is the key step to avoid infection transmission to save millions of people in all over the world. This paper provides a standard guideline in the planning of dengue prevention and control measures. At the same time gives the priorities including clinical management and hospitalized dengue patients have to address essentially.

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Strategies for prevention and control of COVID-19 in Nepal

Journal of Patan Academy of Health Sciences ◽

10.3126/jpahs.v7i1.28879 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 85-88 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Kiran Sapkota ◽

Ganesh Dangal ◽

Madhu Koirala ◽

Kalyan Sapkota ◽

Asmita Poudel ◽

...

Keyword(s):

World Health Organization ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Preventive Measures ◽

Large Population ◽

World Health ◽

The World ◽

Community Transmission ◽

The Government ◽

Health Organization ◽

And Control

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, caused by the most recently discovered coronavirus, is currently affecting a large population across the globe. World health organization (WHO) has already declared COVID-19, a pandemic, and the world is fighting to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. Nepal has taken several preventive measures to control the coronavirus outbreak. However, some additional steps are needed to prevent community transmission of the disease. This brief communication discusses the government of Nepal actions and provides recommendations for the prevention and control of COVID-19 infection in Nepal.

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Atmospheric Relative Humidity Can Increase the Spread of COVID-19

10.21203/rs.3.rs-41016/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Qing Zheng ◽

Lei Wang ◽

Hongbin Wang ◽

Wenjing Gui

Keyword(s):

Relative Humidity ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Meteorological Factors ◽

Control Measures ◽

The World ◽

Research Findings ◽

Atmospheric Relative Humidity ◽

Increasing Risk ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

And Control

Abstract COVID-19 has been spreading around the world since the end of 2019, and there is no sign of a slowdown. Previous studies on seasonality of similar infectious diseases have hinted that meteorological factors may influence COVID-19 outbreaks as well1. Here we show, based on data collected in 132 cities of China, that relative humidity, as an essential meteorological indicator, is positively correlated with the growth rate of incidence of COVID-19, which contradicts previous research findings. Our result suggests an increasing risk of COVID-19 cases as summer and rain seasons arrive in many places of the world. They also help countries and regions to formulate pandemic prevention and control measures and policies according to local meteorological characteristics.

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An Investigation on the Public's Acceptance of Prevention and Control Measures for COVID-19 in China

10.21203/rs.3.rs-99541/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ao Zhang ◽

Xiang Wu ◽

Jingqi Gao ◽

Yongbao Zhang

Keyword(s):

Prevention And Control ◽

Control Measures ◽

Public Acceptance ◽

Prevention Measures ◽

The Public ◽

Epidemic Period ◽

The Difference ◽

The Government ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

And Control

Abstract Background: China has basically succeeded in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic, which is due to the cooperation and acceptance of epidemic prevention measures by the public. However, few studies have examined the measures China has taken to combat COVID-19 in order to reflect on its success in curbing the the spread of epidemic.Methods: In this study, the public acceptance questionnaire was designed based on the epidemic prevention measures adopted in China, to investigate the difference of public acceptance of epidemic prevention measures. The survey data was collected from 2,062 samples with different demographic characteristics from March 8, 2020 to April 9, 2020. And SPSS was used to analyze the data collected in the questionnaire, such as one-way variance, so as to draw conclusions.Results: The results show that age and educational level have a significant influence on public acceptance. In contrast gender and occupation field has no significant impact on it. The acceptance of the emergency prevention and control measures taken by the government during the epidemic period is generally high. With the development of the epidemic, the acceptability is increasing. And the public acceptance of traffic measures was highest. Conclusions: Rapid deployment of epidemic prevention measures and appropriate methods in transportation, economy and education are the key to China's effective containment of the epidemic. Measures such as shutting down cities and encouraging the wearing of masks deserve to be copied by other countries. This study summed up China's scientific experience in the fight against COVID-19 and differences in public acceptance. It can provide a positive reference for the development of epidemic prevention measures in other countries.

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Analysis on Economic Growth under Different Prevention and Control Measures of Covid-19 Pandemic

E3S Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/e3sconf/202123501060 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 235 ◽

pp. 01060

Author(s):

Wenyi Yang

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Immune System ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Economic Value ◽

Control Measures ◽

Daily Routine ◽

Wuhan City ◽

The World ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

And Control

By the end of 2019 a novel kind of coronavirus which can infect human and trigger pneumonia is found in Wuhan City, China. The contagious virus rendered itself highly dangerous to attack human’s immune system, and humans have to suspend their daily routine to derail the spread of this virus, named Covid-19 by WHO. It has upended the world, especially when people cannot go out to work and spend to create economic value in awe of contagion, leading to a nosedive taken by economic growth, and the healthy crisis transferred into an economic crisis. To control over the spread of virus and save economy, governments took many measures, but the effect varies from country to country. This article aims to find the liaison between the how fast and deep the governments are to fight against Covid-19 and how that relates to their recovery of economic growth, taking China and USA as typical examples, and draw the conclusion that the speed and depth the control taken over Covid-19 features a positive correlation with the recovery of economic growth.

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High Hidden Burden of Diabetes Mellitus among Adults Aged 18 Years and Above in Urban Northwest Ethiopia

Journal of Diabetes Research ◽

10.1155/2020/9240398 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2020 ◽

pp. 1-9

Author(s):

Haileab Fekadu Wolde ◽

Terefe Derso ◽

Gashaw Andargie Biks ◽

Mezgebu Yitayal ◽

Tadesse Awoke Ayele ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Diabetes Mellitus ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Associated Factors ◽

Northwest Ethiopia ◽

Control Measures ◽

Noncommunicable Disease ◽

World Health ◽

Community Based ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

And Control

Background. Ethiopia is one of the sub-Saharan African countries with a rapidly increasing burden of diabetes mellitus (DM). There is limited updated information about the community-based burden of the disease and its associated factors in Ethiopia which is very crucial to plan effective prevention and control measures against the disease. This study is aimed at determining the burden of DM and its associated factors in urban northwest Ethiopia. Methods. A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted from April to May 2019 among residents aged ≥ 18 years in Gondar town and urban kebeles (lowest administrative units of the country) of Health and Demographic Surveillance System site (HDSS) in Dabat district. A multistage sampling technique was used to select 773 participants. World Health Organization (WHO) stepwise approach for noncommunicable disease surveillance was used to collect the data. Fasting blood glucose FBS ≥ 126 mg / dl was used to diagnose DM. Descriptive statistics were done to describe the variables of the study. Prevalence with its 95% confidence interval (CI) was estimated. Binary logistic regression model was fitted, variables with p value < 0.05 were considered to have a significant association with the outcome, and odds ratio (OR) was used to measure the strength of association. Result. Of the total participants, 6.34% (95% CI; 4.82, 8.29) were found to be diabetic. Of these, 40 (81.6%) were newly diagnosed. Besides, the prevalence of prediabetes was 9.31% (95% CI: 7.45, 11.58). Increased age ( AOR = 1.06 , 95% CI; 1.04, 1.09) and eating vegetables one to three days per week (AOR =0.29, 95% CI; 0.13, 0.65) were significantly associated with diabetes. Conclusion. The overall prevalence of DM is a bit higher than the national estimate, while the proportion of undiagnosed DM which can easily progress to disabling and life-threatening complications was alarmingly high. Age and frequency of eating vegetables per week were associated with diabetes. In light of this finding, future prevention and control measures against the diseases should consider the identified factors. There should also be improved access to screening services.

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What matters: non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 in Europe

Antimicrobial Resistance and Infection Control ◽

10.1186/s13756-021-01039-x ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Yan Liu ◽

Qiuyan Yu ◽

Haoyu Wen ◽

Fang Shi ◽

Fang Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Prevention And Control ◽

Large Scale ◽

Great Influence ◽

Control Measures ◽

European Countries ◽

World Health ◽

Current Status ◽

Key Factors ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

And Control

Abstract Objectives The purpose of this study is to describe the situation of COVID-19 in European countries and to identify important factors related to prevention and control. Methods We obtained data from World Health Statistics 2020 and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). We calculated the Rt values of 51 countries in Europe under different prevention and control measures. We used lasso regression to screen factors associated with morbidity and mortality. For the selected variables, we used quantile regression to analyse the relevant influencing factors in countries with different levels of morbidity or mortality. Results The government has a great influence on the change in Rt value through prevention and control measures. The most important factors for personal and group prevention and control are the mobility index, testing, the closure of educational facilities, restrictions on large-scale gatherings, and commercial restrictions. The number of ICU beds and doctors in medical resources are also key factors. Basic sanitation facilities, such as the proportion of safe drinking water, also have an impact on the COVID-19 epidemic. Conclusions We described the current status of COVID-19 in European countries. Our findings demonstrated key factors in individual and group prevention measures.

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