What matters: non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 in Europe

Abstract Objectives The purpose of this study is to describe the situation of COVID-19 in European countries and to identify important factors related to prevention and control. Methods We obtained data from World Health Statistics 2020 and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). We calculated the Rt values of 51 countries in Europe under different prevention and control measures. We used lasso regression to screen factors associated with morbidity and mortality. For the selected variables, we used quantile regression to analyse the relevant influencing factors in countries with different levels of morbidity or mortality. Results The government has a great influence on the change in Rt value through prevention and control measures. The most important factors for personal and group prevention and control are the mobility index, testing, the closure of educational facilities, restrictions on large-scale gatherings, and commercial restrictions. The number of ICU beds and doctors in medical resources are also key factors. Basic sanitation facilities, such as the proportion of safe drinking water, also have an impact on the COVID-19 epidemic. Conclusions We described the current status of COVID-19 in European countries. Our findings demonstrated key factors in individual and group prevention measures.

Download Full-text

What Matters among Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 in Europe?

10.21203/rs.3.rs-306368/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Chuanhua Yu ◽

Yan Liu ◽

Qiuyan Yu ◽

Haoyu Wen ◽

Fang Shi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Prevention And Control ◽

Large Scale ◽

Great Influence ◽

Control Measures ◽

European Countries ◽

World Health ◽

Current Status ◽

Key Factors ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

And Control

Abstract Objectives The purpose of this study is to describe the situation of the COVID-19 in European countries and identify important factors related to prevention and control. Methods We obtained data from World Health Statistics 2020 and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). We caculated the Rt values of 51countries in Europe under different prevention and control measures. We used lasso regression to screen factors associated with morbidity and mortality. For variables selected, we used quantile regression to analyze the relevant influencing factors in countries with different levels of morbidity or mortality. Results The government has a great influence on the change of Rt value through prevention and control measures. The most important factor for personal and group prevention and control is the mobility index, testing, the closure of educational facilities, restrictions on large-scale gatherings, and commercial restrictions. The number of ICU beds and doctors in medical resources are also key factors. Basic sanitation facilities, such as the proportion of safe drinking water, also have an impact on the COVID-19 epidemic. Conclusions This study describes the current status of COVID-19 in European countries. We found key factors in individual prevention and control measures and group prevention and control measures.

Download Full-text

Heterogeneity and effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 prevention and control in major cities in China through time-varying reproduction number estimation

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-020-79063-x ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Qing Cheng ◽

Zeyi Liu ◽

Guangquan Cheng ◽

Jincai Huang

Keyword(s):

Prevention And Control ◽

Large Scale ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Correlation Method ◽

Control Measures ◽

Time Varying ◽

Short Period ◽

Significant Difference ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

And Control

AbstractBeginning on December 31, 2019, the large-scale novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in China. Tracking and analysing the heterogeneity and effectiveness of cities’ prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic is essential to design and adjust epidemic prevention and control measures. The number of newly confirmed cases in 25 of China’s most-affected cities for the COVID-19 epidemic from January 11 to February 10 was collected. The heterogeneity and effectiveness of these 25 cities’ prevention and control measures for COVID-19 were analysed by using an estimated time-varying reproduction number method and a serial correlation method. The results showed that the effective reproduction number (R) in 25 cities showed a downward trend overall, but there was a significant difference in the R change trends among cities, indicating that there was heterogeneity in the spread and control of COVID-19 in cities. Moreover, the COVID-19 control in 21 of 25 cities was effective, and the risk of infection decreased because their R had dropped below 1 by February 10, 2020. In contrast, the cities of Wuhan, Tianmen, Ezhou and Enshi still had difficulty effectively controlling the COVID-19 epidemic in a short period of time because their R was greater than 1.

Download Full-text

The lab-confirmed interval of COVID-19 clusters and its application in the strength evaluation of prevention and control measures

BMC Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1186/s12879-021-05874-6 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Lihong Huang ◽

Liangmin Wei ◽

Yue Jiang ◽

Lijuan Lin

Keyword(s):

Prevention And Control ◽

Bootstrap Method ◽

Control Measures ◽

European Countries ◽

Preliminary Evaluation ◽

Additional Information ◽

Laboratory Capacity ◽

Serial Interval ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

And Control

Abstract Background The lab-confirmed interval is the date from lab confirmation in a core case (infector) to lab confirmation in a second case (infectee); however, its distribution and application are seldom reported. This study aimed to investigate the lab-confirmed interval and its application in the preliminary evaluation of the strength of disease prevention and control measures. Methods Taking European countries and Chinese provinces outside Hubei as examples, we identified 63 infector-infectee pairs from European countries from Wikipedia, and 103 infector-infectee pairs from official public sources in Chinese provinces outside Hubei. The lab-confirmed intervals were obtained through analysis of the collected data and adopting the bootstrap method. Results The mean lab-confirmed interval was 2.6 (95% CI: 2.1–3.1) days for Europe and 2.6 (95% CI: 1.9–3.3) days for China outside Hubei, which were shorter than the reported serial intervals. For index patients aged ≥60 years old, the lab-confirmed interval in Europe was slightly longer (mean: 2.9; 95% CI: 2.0–3.6) and obviously longer in China outside Hubei (mean: 3.8; 95% CI: 1.9–5.5) than that for patients aged < 60 years. Conclusion Investigation of the lab-confirmed interval can provide additional information on the characteristics of emergent outbreaks and can be a feasible indication to evaluate the strength of prevention and control measures. When the lab-confirmed interval was shorter than the serial interval, it could objectively reflect improvements in laboratory capacity and the surveillance of close contacts.

Download Full-text

Repercussions of the COVID-19 Health Crisis In the Peruvian Informal Sector

The Journal of Economics Studies and Research ◽

10.5171/2021.948031 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-9

Author(s):

Vilma Andia-Choquepuma ◽

Daniza Juana Leon-Escobedo ◽

Himer Avila-George ◽

orge Sánchez-Garcés ◽

Ruth Elizabeth Villafuerte-Alcántara ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Prevention And Control ◽

Preventive Measures ◽

Control Measures ◽

World Health ◽

Health Crisis ◽

Entry Points ◽

The World ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

Health Organization ◽

And Control

After the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of Coronavirus (COVID-19) a pandemic, the Peruvian government took preventive measures to counteract the spread of the virus by issuing Supreme Decree No. 008-2020-SA. This decree contains prevention and control measures aimed at ports, airports, land entry points, educational centers, transportation and workplaces.

Download Full-text

Improving COVID-19 response: redirecting risk communication efforts towards equity issues

Revista Latinoamericana de Difusión Científica ◽

10.38186/difcie.35.01 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 3 (5) ◽

pp. 3-8

Author(s):

Yisel Hernández Barrios ◽

Luis Fonte Galindo ◽

María del Carmen Zabala Argüelles ◽

Dennis Pérez Chacón

Keyword(s):

Health Problem ◽

Social Communication ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Control Measures ◽

World Health ◽

Equity Issues ◽

The World ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

Health Organization ◽

And Control

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is, to date, the health problem with the highest impact in the 21st century. The World Health Organization has recommended several prevention and control measures to deal with this pandemic. In this context, social communication plays a key role. In this article we argue that the potential of communication efforts to close the gaps in the COVID-19 response worldwide won´t be fully accomplished until they do address equity-related issues.

Download Full-text

Prediction of Different Interventions on the Burden of Drug-resistant Tuberculosis in China: a Dynamic Modeling Study

10.21203/rs.3.rs-637762/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ao Xu ◽

Ze-xuan Wen ◽

Yue Wang ◽

Wei-bing Wang

Keyword(s):

Prevention And Control ◽

Control Measures ◽

World Health ◽

Infectious Period ◽

Predictive Analysis ◽

Progression Rate ◽

Drug Resistant ◽

Cure Rate ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

And Control

Abstract Background. Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the top ten causes of death worldwide. The World Health Organization adopted the “End TB Strategy”, whose goal is to end the global TB epidemic by 2035. However, achieving this goal will be difficult using current prevention and control measures.Methods. A Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model that distinguishes drug-sensitive (DS) and drug-resistant (DR) TB in the entire Chinese population was established. Goodness-of-fit tests and sensitivity analyses were used to assess model performance. Predictive analysis was performed to assess the effect of different prevention and control strategies on DR-TB and achieving the goal of the End TB Strategy: 90% fewer cases of DR-TB by 2035.Results. We used parameter fitting to determine the basic reproduction number of the model as R0 =0.6993. Chi-square test results indicated good model fits for the reported incidences of DS-TB (χ2=0.144, P=1.000) and DR-TB (χ2=0.076, P=1.000). The predictive analysis led to four major projections for the number of cases by 2035. First, if the transmission rate of DR-TB patients reaches 0 during the infectious period, there will be 208,754 fewer cases (failure to achieve to goal). Second, if the progression rate of latently infected people reaches 10%, there will be 255,075 fewer cases (92.2% lower than in 2015). Third, if the overall treatment and cure rate of patients with DS-TB improves to 100%, there will be 150,482 fewer cases (failure to achieve the goal). Fourth, if the cure rate of DR-TB increases to 40%, there will be 253,198 fewer cases (91.5% lower than in 2015).Conclusions. We assessed several prevention and control measures for DR-TB. Interventions that target acquired DR and improvement of the cure rate of DS-TB have limited efficacy. However, interventions that target primary DR-TB, such as reducing the probability of transmission and the rate of disease progression in patients with DR-TB, have better efficacy. Improving treatment compliance and the cure rate of patients with DR-TB can also contribute to attaining the goal of the End TB Strategy.

Download Full-text

High Hidden Burden of Diabetes Mellitus among Adults Aged 18 Years and Above in Urban Northwest Ethiopia

Journal of Diabetes Research ◽

10.1155/2020/9240398 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2020 ◽

pp. 1-9

Author(s):

Haileab Fekadu Wolde ◽

Terefe Derso ◽

Gashaw Andargie Biks ◽

Mezgebu Yitayal ◽

Tadesse Awoke Ayele ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Diabetes Mellitus ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Associated Factors ◽

Northwest Ethiopia ◽

Control Measures ◽

Noncommunicable Disease ◽

World Health ◽

Community Based ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

And Control

Background. Ethiopia is one of the sub-Saharan African countries with a rapidly increasing burden of diabetes mellitus (DM). There is limited updated information about the community-based burden of the disease and its associated factors in Ethiopia which is very crucial to plan effective prevention and control measures against the disease. This study is aimed at determining the burden of DM and its associated factors in urban northwest Ethiopia. Methods. A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted from April to May 2019 among residents aged ≥ 18 years in Gondar town and urban kebeles (lowest administrative units of the country) of Health and Demographic Surveillance System site (HDSS) in Dabat district. A multistage sampling technique was used to select 773 participants. World Health Organization (WHO) stepwise approach for noncommunicable disease surveillance was used to collect the data. Fasting blood glucose FBS ≥ 126 mg / dl was used to diagnose DM. Descriptive statistics were done to describe the variables of the study. Prevalence with its 95% confidence interval (CI) was estimated. Binary logistic regression model was fitted, variables with p value < 0.05 were considered to have a significant association with the outcome, and odds ratio (OR) was used to measure the strength of association. Result. Of the total participants, 6.34% (95% CI; 4.82, 8.29) were found to be diabetic. Of these, 40 (81.6%) were newly diagnosed. Besides, the prevalence of prediabetes was 9.31% (95% CI: 7.45, 11.58). Increased age ( AOR = 1.06 , 95% CI; 1.04, 1.09) and eating vegetables one to three days per week (AOR =0.29, 95% CI; 0.13, 0.65) were significantly associated with diabetes. Conclusion. The overall prevalence of DM is a bit higher than the national estimate, while the proportion of undiagnosed DM which can easily progress to disabling and life-threatening complications was alarmingly high. Age and frequency of eating vegetables per week were associated with diabetes. In light of this finding, future prevention and control measures against the diseases should consider the identified factors. There should also be improved access to screening services.

Download Full-text

Particularities Regarding the Evolution of Trichinosis in Constanta County

ARS Medica Tomitana ◽

10.1515/arsm-2016-0027 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 22 (3) ◽

pp. 164-168

Author(s):

Beatrice Severin ◽

Anca-Maria Moldoveanu ◽

V. Broasca ◽

Cecilia Adumitresi ◽

Olguta Ilasca

Keyword(s):

Prevention And Control ◽

Control Measures ◽

European Countries ◽

Staple Food ◽

Meat Intake ◽

Excessive Consumption ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

And Control

Abstract Meat is a staple food for a large part of the population and excessive consumption is often done, with serious repercussions on health. But there are situations where even the occasional meat intake can affect the health of the population, if the products have not been verified for sanitary standards. Trichinosis is an example for this situation. Romania has a significant number of cases compared to other European countries. In Constanta County trichinosis incidence is increasing continuously in 2009-2013. Considering these data we can say that prevention and control measures are not sufficient for this pathology.

Download Full-text

Analysis between Water Contain and Lithology

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.744-746.422 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 744-746 ◽

pp. 422-425

Author(s):

Qiu Mei Zhang ◽

Jin Tao Tang ◽

Hao Ma

Keyword(s):

Mechanical Properties ◽

Compressive Strength ◽

Water Content ◽

Prevention And Control ◽

Great Influence ◽

Test System ◽

Control Measures ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

Rock Mechanical Properties ◽

And Control

Water content has a great influence on the rock mechanics properties. Four kinds of rock samples have been tested in the MTS Electro hydraulic Tri-axial Servo Test System. The result shows that with the increase of water content, the rock uniaxial compressive strength and elastic modulus value are declining. We get the fitting equation between water content and rock mechanical properties with four kind of rocks, provide a new basis for slope stability analysis and landslide prevention and control measures.

Download Full-text

Beware of asymptomatic transmission: Study on 2019-nCoV prevention and control measures based on extended SEIR model

10.1101/2020.01.28.923169 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Peng Shao ◽

Yingji Shan

Keyword(s):

Prevention And Control ◽

Early Stage ◽

Control Measures ◽

World Health ◽

Epidemic Spread ◽

Prevention And Control Measures ◽

Health Organization ◽

Almost All ◽

And Control ◽

The Impact

SummaryBackgroundThe 2019 new coronavirus, “2019-nCoV”, was discovered from Wuhan Viral Pneumonia cases in December 2019, and was named by the World Health Organization on January 12, 2020. In the early stage, people knows little about the 2019-nCoV virus was not clear, and the spread period was encountering China’s annual spring migration, which made the epidemic spread rapidly from Wuhan to almost all provinces in China.MethodsThis study builds a SEIRD model that considers the movement of people across regions, revealing the effects of three measures on controlling the spread of the epidemic.Based on MATLAB R2017a, computational experiments were performed to simulate the epidemic prevention and control measures.FindingsThe research results show that current prevention and control measures in China are very necessary. This study further validates the concerns of international and domestic experts regarding asymptomatic transmission (E-status).InterpretationThe results of this study are applicable to explore the impact of the implementation of relevant measures on the prevention and control of epidemic spread, and to identify key individuals that may exist during the spread of the epidemic.

Download Full-text