scholarly journals Time Series Modeling of Road Traffic Accidents in Amhara Region

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kidane Alemtsega
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Road Traffic Accident ◽  
Traffic Accident ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Close Monitoring ◽  
Road Traffic Accidents ◽  
Amhara Region

Abstract Road traffic accidents are commonly encountered incidents that can cause injuries, death, and property damage to members of society. Ethiopia is one of the highest incident rates of road traffic accidents. Report of Transport and Communication from 2012–2014, shows an increment in the number of traffic accidents in Ethiopia. Amhara region accounted for 27.3% of the total road traffic accident-related deaths in Ethiopia during the year 2008/9, which is the highest share among all regions. The current research aims to model the trend of injury, fatal and total road traffic accidents in the Amhara region from September 2013 to May 2017. Monthly reported traffic accidents were obtained from traffic police offices and other concerned governmental organizations at the zonal and regional levels. The most universal class of models for forecasting time series data called Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Averages models are applied to model the trends and patterns of road traffic accident cases in the Amhara region. The average number of observed injury RTA, fatal RTA, and total RTA were 27.2, 14, and 78.2 per month respectively. It was observed that a relatively large number of RTA’S are reported on Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday relative to other days of the week. The data also reveals that more than 60% of accidents involve drivers between the ages of 18–30 years. ARIMA (2,0,0) (1,0,0) ARIMA (2,0,0) and ARIMA (2,0,0) (1,1,0) were fitted as the best model for total injury accidents, fatal RTA and total RTA data respectively. A 48 months forecast was made based on the fitted models and it can be concluded that road traffic accident cases would continue at the non-decreasing rate in the Amhara region for the predicted periods. Therefore, the findings of this study draw attention to the importance of implementing improved better policies and close monitoring of road trafficking to change the existing trend of road traffic accidents in the region.

scholarly journals Time series modeling of road traffic accidents in Amhara Region

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kidane Alemtsega Getahun
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Road Traffic Accident ◽  
Traffic Accident ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Close Monitoring ◽  
Road Traffic Accidents ◽  
Amhara Region

AbstractRoad traffic accidents (RTA) are commonly encountered incidents that can cause injuries, death, and property damage to members of society. Ethiopia is one of the highest incident rates of road traffic accidents. Report of Transport and Communication from 2012 to 2014, shows an increment in the number of traffic accidents in Ethiopia. Amhara region accounted for 27.3% of the total road traffic accident-related deaths in Ethiopia during the year 2008/9, which is the highest share among all regions in Ethiopia. The current research aims to model the trend of injury, fatal and total road traffic accidents in the Amhara region from September 2013 to May 2017. Monthly reported traffic accidents were obtained from the traffic department of the Amhara region police commission. The most universal class of models for forecasting time series data called Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) models were applied to model the trends and patterns of road traffic accident cases in the Amhara region. The average number of observed injury RTA, fatal RTA, and total RTA were 27.2, 14, and 78.2 per month respectively. It was observed that a relatively large number of RTA’s are reported on Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday relative to other days of the week. The data also reveals that more than 60% of accidents involve drivers between the ages of 18–30 years. ARIMA (2,0,0) (1,0,0) ARIMA (2,0,0) and ARIMA (2,0,0) (1,1,0) were fitted as the best model for total injury accidents, fatal RTA and total RTA data respectively. A 48 months forecast was made based on the fitted models and it can be concluded that road traffic accident cases would continue at the non-decreasing rate in the Amhara region for the predicted periods. Therefore, the findings of this study draw attention to the importance of implementing improved better policies and close monitoring of road trafficking to change the existing non-decreasing trend of road traffic accidents in the region.

ADHD is a Risk Factor of Road Crashes: A Purposive Study of Finding Relation between ADHD and Road Traffic Accident in Bangladesh

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (08) ◽  
pp. 20531-20536
Author(s):  
Nusrat Shamima Nur ◽  
M. S. l. Mullick ◽  
Ahmed Hossain
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Road Traffic Accident ◽  
Traffic Accident ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Road Traffic Accidents ◽  
Road Crashes ◽  
Road Crash ◽  
Day By Day

Background: In Bangladesh fatality rate due to road traffic accidents is rising sharply day by day. At least 2297 people were killed and 5480 were injured in road traffic accidents within 1st six months of 2017.Whereas in the previous year at 2016 at least 1941 people were killed and 4794 were injured within the 1st six months. No survey has been reported in Bangladesh yet correlating ADHD as a reason of impulsive driving which ends up in a road crash.

Alcohol and Fatal Road Traffic Accidents

1982 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 189-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Rufus Crompton
Keyword(s):  
Road Traffic Accident ◽  
Traffic Accident ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Blood Alcohol ◽  
Road Traffic Accidents ◽  
Characteristic Distribution ◽  
Road Users ◽  
Blood Alcohol Levels ◽  
Age And Sex

An analysis of 208 cases of immediate death in a road traffic accident in which the blood alcohol was estimated, showed a definite characteristic distribution of varying blood alcohol levels in the various types of road users of differing age and sex.

scholarly journals Characteristics of Road Traffic Accident Cases Reported in a Tertiary Military Hospital

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-217
Author(s):  
Md Moshiur Rahman ◽  
Farzana Zafreen ◽  
Abu Noman Mohammed Mosleh Uddin
Keyword(s):  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Road Safety ◽  
Road Traffic Accident ◽  
Traffic Accident ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Military Hospital ◽  
Road Traffic Accidents ◽  
Traffic Crashes ◽  
Road Traffic Crashes

Introduction: Road traffic accidents (RTA) are the eighth leading cause of death globally, and the leading cause of death in Bangladesh. The road safety situation in Bangladesh has been deteriorating with increasing number of road accident deaths, largely as direct consequences of rapid growth in population, motorization, urbanization and lack of investment in road safety. Objectives: To describe the injury characteristics of road traffic accidents cases that reported at Combined Military Hospital (CMH), Dhaka. Materials and Methods: This descriptive cross-sectional hospital based study was conducted on all the RTA cases reported to medical inspection room CMH, Dhaka from 01 March to 30 June 2010. A total of 126 RTA victims irrespective of age and sex were included, data were collected by face to face interview using a pre-tested questionnaire. Results: A total of 126 road traffic accident victims both sexes were studied. The majority of the study subjects were men 103 (81.7%) and most of them were in 31-40 years group (27%), Muslims (98.41%) were the majority. In our study regarding educational qualification of RTA victims most of them were SSC qualified (44’4%) and primary level (15.1%). Military services holder (45.2%) was the majority of road traffic crash victims. Bus/Minibus (32.5%) was responsible for the majority of road traffic crashes and motor vehicle passengers (42.9%) were main victims. Laceration & cut injury were (38.1%) and multiple injury (18.3%) were the most common injury. Main roads (49.2%) were the commonest site of the accidents.  Regarding place of occurrence main roads 62 (49.2%) was the most common site and noon 41 (32.5%) was the most common time of occurrence of accidents. Conclusion: Road traffic crashes constitute a major public health problem in our setting and contribute significantly to unacceptably high morbidity and mortality. Urgent preventive measures targeting at reducing the occurrence of road traffic crashes is necessary to reduce the morbidity and mortality resulting from these injuries. Early recognition and prompt treatment of road traffic injuries is essential for optimal patient outcome. JAFMC Bangladesh. Vol 15, No 2 (December) 2019: 213-217

An Empirical Inquiry into Maintenance Work of Auto-Mechanics and its Relative Bearing on Road Traffic Accidents - A Developing Country Case, Ghana

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 ◽  
pp. 139-160
Author(s):  
Aaron Agbenyegah Agbo ◽  
Wen Feng Li ◽  
Lan Bo Zheng ◽  
Charles Atombo
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Road Traffic Accident ◽  
Traffic Accident ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Quality Standard ◽  
Mechanical Failure ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Road Traffic Accidents ◽  
Work Quality

Road traffic accidents are challenges the world is battling in recent times. Majority of increasing road fatalities occurs in developing countries. This study seeks to address part of the issues leading to mechanical failures and road traffic accidents in the developing countries with Ghana as a case study. The study model was validated with the use of a sample collected from 880 mechanics from six regions. The mechanics completed questionnaire measures of perception on used parts, brand new parts, mechanical failure, road accidents and demographic variables. In addition, observation and survey method were also used to collect the data on work quality. The result shows that mechanical failure and road traffic accident correlated positively with used parts and negatively correlated with brand new parts. The study model explained R2 = 0.46 and 0.65 of the variance in mechanical failure and road traffic accident respectively. The independent predictors of mechanical failure were age, gender, experience, perception about used parts and work quality. The predictors of road traffic accident were experience, mechanical failure, perception about brand new parts and work quality. We conclude that the mechanical failure and road traffic accidents could be attributed to non-use of genuine parts, poor work quality standard and poor supervision during and after repairs. Remedial measures addressing these issues could reduce road traffic accident in Ghana.

scholarly journals Forecasting road traffic accident deaths in India using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (9) ◽  
pp. 3962
Author(s):  
Manikandan M. ◽  
Vishnu Prasad R. ◽  
Amit Kumar Mishra ◽  
Rajesh Kumar Konduru ◽  
Newtonraj A.
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
World Health ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Road Traffic Accidents ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Health Organization

Background: As per World Health Organization (WHO) report 1.24 million people die each year as a result of road traffic accidents (RTA) globally. A vast majority of 20-50 million people suffer from non-fatal injuries, many of them ultimately end in disability. Forecasting RTA deaths could help in planning the intervention at the right time in an effective way.Methods: An attempt was made to forecast the RTA deaths in India with seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. ARIMA model is one of the common methods which are used for forecasting variables as the method is very easy and requires only long time series data. The method of selection of appropriate ARIMA model has been explained in detail. Month wise RTA deaths for previous years data was collected from Govt. of India website. Data for 12 years (2001 to 2012) was extracted and appropriate ARIMA model was selected. Using the validated ARIMA model the RTA deaths are forecasted for 8 years (2013-2020).Results: The appropriate SARIMA (1,0,0) (2,1,0) 12 model was selected based on minimal AIC and BIC values. The forecasted RTA deaths show increasing trend overtime.Conclusions: There is an increasing trend in the forecasted numbers of road traffic accidental deaths and it also shows seasonality of RTA deaths with more number of accidents during the month of April and May in every years. It is recommended that the policy makers and transport authority should pay more attention to road traffic accidents and plan some effective intervention to reduce the burden of RTA deaths.

scholarly journals Road Traffic Accident Analysis and Identification of Black Spot Locations on Highway

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (12) ◽  
pp. 2448-2456
Author(s):  
Asad Iqbal ◽  
Zia Ur Rehman ◽  
Shahid Ali ◽  
Kaleem Ullah ◽  
Usman Ghani
Keyword(s):  
Road Safety ◽  
Road Traffic Accident ◽  
Traffic Accident ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Black Spot ◽  
Accident Analysis ◽  
Road Traffic Accidents ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Black Spots

Road safety is the main problem in developing countries. Every year, millions of people die in road traffic accidents, resulting in huge losses of humankind and the economy. This study focuses on the road traffic accident analysis and identification of black spots on the Lahore-Islamabad Highway M-2. Official data of road traffic accidents were collected from National Highway and Highway Police (NH & MP) Pakistan. The data was digitized on MS Excel and Origin Pro. The accident Point weightage (APW) method was employed to identify the black spots and rank of the top ten black spots. The analysis shows that the trend of road traffic accidents on M-2 was characterized by a high rate of fatal accidents of 35.3%. Human errors account for 66.8% as the major contributing factors in road traffic accidents, while vehicle errors (25.6%) and environmental factors (7.6%) were secondary and tertiary contributing factors. The main causes of road traffic accidents were the dozing on the wheel (27.9%), the careless driving (24.6%), tyre burst (11.7%), and the brakes failure (7.4%). Kallar Kahar (Salt Range) was identified as a black spot (223 km, 224 km, 225 km, 229 km, and 234 km) due to vehicle brake failure. The human error was a major contributory factor in road traffic accidents, therefore public awareness campaign on road safety is inevitable and use of the dozen alarm to overcome dozing on the wheel. Doi: 10.28991/cej-2020-03091629 Full Text: PDF

scholarly journals Knowledge regarding prevention of road traffic accidents among the adolescents in a community at Dharan Municipality

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-84
Author(s):  
Neela Subba ◽  
Dipty Subba
Keyword(s):  
Road Traffic Accident ◽  
Traffic Accident ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Traffic Signals ◽  
Descriptive Study ◽  
Road Traffic Accidents ◽  
Seat Belts ◽  
Safety Seat ◽  
Structured Questionnaire

Descriptive study with the aim to assess knowledge regarding prevention of road traffic accidents was done by administrating self-structured questionnaire among 100 adolescents (between 10-19 years) at Dharan Municipality. Questionnaire includes the information regarding demographic and knowledge about meaning, causes and prevention of road traffic accidents. Among the respondents 55% were male and 45% were female. Driver responsibility and not obeying traffic signals for occurrences of RTA, use of safety seat belts for minimizing Road Traffic Accident, were the most responses provided 85%, 91% and 81% respectively.  Overall, only 33.34% had good knowledge regarding prevention of road traffic accidents. The study concludes the need for knowledge about accident prevention.

scholarly journals An Exploratory Study to Assess the Knowledge and Utilization of First Aid Box in Vehicles for First Aid in Road Traffic Accidents among the Employees at Jamia Hamdard, New Delhi

2020 ◽  
Vol 07 (04) ◽  
pp. 18-23
Author(s):  
Saba Hashmi ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Road Traffic Accident ◽  
Traffic Accident ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
First Aid ◽  
Good Knowledge ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
New Delhi ◽  
Road Traffic Accidents ◽  
Poor Knowledge

The trend in road traffic accident injuries and fatality is becoming shocking in countries like India. Delhi is one of the top 5 states in India with highest reported road traffic accidents and injuries. After a road traffic accident, the first few minutes are critical, as measures taken during this time period can be lifesaving. Methods: The research approach adopted for the study was descriptive approach. The tool developed for the data collection was a structured knowledge questionnaire. Convenient sampling technique was adopted which consisted of 50 people among the employees working in Jamia Hamdard, New Delhi. The analysis was done by computing the frequencies and percentages. Results: Findings revealed that out of 50 sample (64%) had average knowledge on first aid in road traffic accidents, whereas 24% had good knowledge of first aid in road traffic accident and only 12% had poor knowledge of first aid in road traffic accident. Regarding utilization of first aid box in their vehicles, majority of the employees (77%) were found to be having good knowledge of utilization of first aid box in their vehicles. Only 23% had poor knowledge of utilization of first aid box in their vehicles. Conclusion: The study showed that majority of the subjects had average knowledge about first aid in road traffic accident and adequate first aid items in their first aid box.

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