scholarly journals A prospective evaluation of AI-augmented epidemiology to forecast COVID-19 in the USA and Japan

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Ledsam ◽  
Sercan Arik ◽  
Joel Shor ◽  
Rajarishi Sinha ◽  
Jinsung Yoon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
National Policy ◽  
Considerable Change ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Prospective Evaluation ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Models Of Disease

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the global need for reliable models of disease spread. We propose an AI-augmented forecast modeling framework that provides daily predictions of the expected number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths, cases and hospitalizations during the following 4 weeks and we present an international, prospective evaluation of our models' performance across all states and counties in the USA and prefectures in Japan. National mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for predicting COVID-19 associated deaths before and after prospective deployment remained consistently <2% (US) and <10% (Japan). Average statewide (US) and prefecture wide (Japan) MAPE was 6% and 26% respectively (14% when looking at prefectures with more than 10 deaths). We show that our models perform well even during periods of considerable change in population behavior, and that it is robust to demographic differences across different geographic locations. We further demonstrate that our framework provides meaningful explanatory insights with the models accurately adapting to local and national policy interventions. Our framework enables counterfactual simulations, which indicate continuing Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions alongside vaccinations is essential for faster recovery from the pandemic, delaying the application of interventions has a detrimental effect, and allow exploration of the consequences of different vaccination strategies. The COVID-19 pandemic remains a global emergency. In the face of substantial challenges ahead, the approach presented here has the potential to inform critical decisions.

scholarly journals A prospective evaluation of AI-augmented epidemiology to forecast COVID-19 in the USA and Japan

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sercan Ö. Arık ◽  
Joel Shor ◽  
Rajarishi Sinha ◽  
Jinsung Yoon ◽  
Joseph R. Ledsam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
National Policy ◽  
Considerable Change ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Prospective Evaluation ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Models Of Disease

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the global need for reliable models of disease spread. We propose an AI-augmented forecast modeling framework that provides daily predictions of the expected number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths, cases, and hospitalizations during the following 4 weeks. We present an international, prospective evaluation of our models’ performance across all states and counties in the USA and prefectures in Japan. Nationally, incident mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for predicting COVID-19 associated deaths during prospective deployment remained consistently <8% (US) and <29% (Japan), while cumulative MAPE remained <2% (US) and <10% (Japan). We show that our models perform well even during periods of considerable change in population behavior, and are robust to demographic differences across different geographic locations. We further demonstrate that our framework provides meaningful explanatory insights with the models accurately adapting to local and national policy interventions. Our framework enables counterfactual simulations, which indicate continuing Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions alongside vaccinations is essential for faster recovery from the pandemic, delaying the application of interventions has a detrimental effect, and allow exploration of the consequences of different vaccination strategies. The COVID-19 pandemic remains a global emergency. In the face of substantial challenges ahead, the approach presented here has the potential to inform critical decisions.

Mangement of Yuvana Pidaka using Mukha Lepa

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dr.Annie Sebastian ◽  
Dr.Muralidhar P. Pujar ◽  
Dr. Meenakshi Malik ◽  
Dr. Unique Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Therapeutic Effect ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Acne Vulgaris ◽  
Self Esteem ◽  
Considerable Change ◽  
External Application ◽  
Self Confidence ◽  
The World ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Face

Yuvana Pidaka (acne vulgaris) is one of the most common, troublesome and frustrating skin care problem for people around the world. It is caused by to Kapha, Vata and Rakta Dhatu involving Rasavaha and Raktavaha Srotas. Apart from others unhealthy life style is identified as the major reason behind the eruption of such lesions. It has adverse effect on self esteem of the subjects and decreases one’s self confidence. Present study tries to understand the therapeutic effect of Mukha Lepa - an external application of Manjishta, Chandana, Yastimadhu and Kushta over the face mixed with milk once every morning for fifteen days after Sadhyovirechana with Avipathi Churna. Study was conducted on ten subjects and assessed with the parameters like Ruja, Kandu, Daha, number and type of eruptions before and after the procedure. The response to the treatment was recorded and the therapeutic effect was evaluated by statistical tests. A considerable change in the complexion over the face of subjects was also noted. It is observed that this particular Lepa is beneficial in the treatment of Yuvana Pidaka apart from improving the complexion of the skin.

An Immigrant Filmmaker Substitutes an Alternative Vision of Adolescence: The Scarecrow (Sam Pillsbury, 1982)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alistair Fox
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Cinematic Adaptation ◽  
Alternative Vision ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Genre Film

By comparing Sam Pillsbury’s cinematic adaptation of Ronald Hugh Morrieson’s The Scarecrow (1963) with the original, this chapter shows how the filmmaker, who was raised in the USA and immigrated to New Zealand in his teens, empties the source novel of the moral ambiguities and transgressive elements that had made the original a genuinely New Zealand work, in so far as it reflected puritan guilt over transgressive impulses in the face of repression, and thus turned the story into a genre film that that is much more anodyne in its vision.

Effect of new dietary supplement on sperm quality

2012 ◽  
Vol 153 (45) ◽  
pp. 1787-1792 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mária Horváth ◽  
Endre Czeizel
Keyword(s):  
Adverse Effect ◽  
Clinical Trial ◽  
Dietary Supplement ◽  
Male Fertility ◽  
Sperm Quality ◽  
Sperm Count ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Usa ◽  
New Treatments

Introduction: There is a decline in male fertility thus new treatments are needed. Aims: To test the efficacy of a new dietary supplement developed in the USA and registered as a curing drug in Hungary (OGYI). Methods: In a clinical trial 100 men with low sperm quality (spermium count 5–20 M/ml, good motility 10–40%, and adverse shape 30–50%) were examined. Results: Sperm parameters were measured before and after a 3-month treatment and after another 3-month without treatment. This dietary supplement statistically and clinically significantly improved sperm count and motility. In 74 cases this dietary supplement demonstrated a beneficial effect on sperm quality (more than 10% increase in sperm count, or quality of motility, or shape); in 16 cases the improvement exceeded 30%. No adverse effect could be accounted for this treatment. Conclusions: This new dietary supplement may contribute to the treatment of male infertility. Orv. Hetil., 2012, 153, 1787–1792.

A Review Paper on Cloud Computing

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Priyanshu Srivastava ◽  
Rizwan Khan
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Computing ◽  
Grid Computing ◽  
Review Paper ◽  
Computing Technology ◽  
Internet Infrastructure ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Face

Today is the era of Cloud Computing Technology in IT Industries. Cloud computing which is based on Internet has the most powerful architecture of computation. It reckons in of a compilation of integrated and networked hardware, software and internet infrastructure. It has various avails atop grid computing and other computing. In this paper, I have given a brief of evaluation of cloud computing by reviewing more than 30 articles on cloud computing. The outcome of this review signalizes the face of the IT industries before and after the cloud computing.

The political background to arts in health

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daisy Fancourt
Keyword(s):  
National Policy ◽  
Health Departments ◽  
Arts Funding ◽  
Health And Wellbeing ◽  
The Arts ◽  
Policy And Strategy ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Political Background ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Arts In Health

In recent decades, there has been an increasing number of national policy and strategy papers discussing arts in health in countries around the world. Some of this activity has been driven by national arts bodies, championing the value of the arts in health and wellbeing and advocating for their inclusion within core arts funding and practice. Other activity has been led by health bodies, including health departments within governments and health services themselves. This chapter explores some of the most influential documents and considers their implication for research and practice. It draws on case studies of activity within Ireland, the UK, the USA, Australia, and Nordic countries.

scholarly journals Directional Hydraulic Fracturing (DHF) of the Roof, as an Element of Rock Burst Prevention in the Light of Underground Observations and Numerical Modelling

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 562
Author(s):  
Marek Jendryś ◽  
Andrzej Hadam ◽  
Mateusz Ćwiękała
Keyword(s):  
Rock Mass ◽  
Hydraulic Fracturing ◽  
Coal Mining ◽  
Rock Burst ◽  
Coal Mine ◽  
Seismic Activity ◽  
Black Coal ◽  
Directional Hydraulic Fracturing ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Face

The following article analyzes the effectiveness of directional hydraulic fracturing (DHF) as a method of rock burst prevention, used in black coal mining with a longwall system. In order to define changes in seismic activity due to DHF at the “Rydułtowy” Black Coal Mine (Upper Silesia, Poland), observations were made regarding the seismic activity of the rock mass during coal mining with a longwall system using roof layers collapse. The seismic activity was recorded in the area of the longwall itself, where, on a part of the runway, the rock mass was expanded before the face of the wall by interrupting the continuity of the rock layers using DHF. The following article presents measurements in the form of the number and the shock energy in the area of the observed longwall, which took place before and after the use of DHF. The second part of the article unveils the results of numerical modeling using the discrete element method, allowing to track the formation of goafs for the variant that does not take DHF into consideration, as well as with modeled fractures tracing DHF carried out in accordance with the technology used at “Rydułtowy” coal mine.

scholarly journals Oral rehydration therapies in Senegal, Mali, and Sierra Leone: a spatial analysis of changes over time and implications for policy

BMC Medicine ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kirsten E. Wiens ◽  
Lauren E. Schaeffer ◽  
Samba O. Sow ◽  
Babacar Ndoye ◽  
Carrie Jo Cain ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Leone ◽  
Healthcare Access ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Geostatistical Model ◽  
Oral Rehydration ◽  
Severe Diarrhea ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a simple intervention that can prevent childhood deaths from severe diarrhea and dehydration. In a previous study, we mapped the use of ORS treatment subnationally and found that ORS coverage increased over time, while the use of home-made alternatives or recommended home fluids (RHF) decreased, in many countries. These patterns were particularly striking within Senegal, Mali, and Sierra Leone. It was unclear, however, whether ORS replaced RHF in these locations or if children were left untreated, and if these patterns were associated with health policy changes. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from household surveys to map the percentage of children with diarrhea that received (1) any ORS, (2) only RHF, or (3) no oral rehydration treatment between 2000 and 2018. This approach allowed examination of whether RHF was replaced with ORS before and after interventions, policies, and external events that may have impacted healthcare access. Results We found that RHF was replaced with ORS in most Sierra Leone districts, except those most impacted by the Ebola outbreak. In addition, RHF was replaced in northern but not in southern Mali, and RHF was not replaced anywhere in Senegal. In Senegal, there was no statistical evidence that a national policy promoting ORS use was associated with increases in coverage. In Sierra Leone, ORS coverage increased following a national policy change that abolished health costs for children. Conclusions Children in parts of Mali and Senegal have been left behind during ORS scale-up. Improved messaging on effective diarrhea treatment and/or increased ORS access such as through reducing treatment costs may be needed to prevent child deaths in these areas.

scholarly journals Declining bacteria, lead, and sulphate, and rising pH and oxygen in the lower Mississippi River

AMBIO ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Eugene Turner
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Mississippi River ◽  
Pollution Abatement ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Quality Improvements ◽  
Sulfur Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Dramatic Decline ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Lower Mississippi River ◽  
The 1960S

AbstractVarious air and water pollution issues in the US were confronted in the last 60 years using national policy legislation, notably the Clean Water Act and the Clean Air Act. I examine changes in the concentrations of bacteria, oxygen, lead, and sulphate at the terminus of the Mississippi River before and after these pollution abatement efforts. Microbial concentrations increased or were stable from 1909 to 1980 but decreased about 3 orders of magnitude after the 1970s, while the average oxygen content increased. A large decline in lead concentration occurred after the 1960s, along with a less dramatic decline in sulphate concentrations. The pH of the river dropped to a low of 5.8 in 1965 as sulfur dioxide emissions peaked and averaged 8.2 in 2019 after emissions declined. Decades of efforts at a national scale created water quality improvements and are an example for addressing new and existing water quality challenges.

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