scholarly journals Adaptive SIR model for propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. F. F. dos Santos ◽  
G. M. A. Almeida ◽  
F. A. B. F. de Moura
Keyword(s):  
Sir Model ◽  
Virus Propagation ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Time Required ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Official Data ◽  
Over Time

Abstract We study the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil based on official data available since March 22, 2020. The calculations are based on an adaptive susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model featuring dynamical recuperation and propagation rates and can reproduce the number of confirmed cases over time with less than $5\%$ error. Furthermore, it is possible to predict the epidemic progression in the near future and we go on to estimate the time required to stabilize the virus propagation. The model is also proved to be accurate for analyzing the epidemic dynamics in other countries.

Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in the state of Alagoas-Brazil via an adaptive SIR model

2020 ◽  
pp. 2150040
Author(s):  
I. F. F. Dos Santos ◽  
G. M. A. Almeida ◽  
F. A. B. F. De Moura
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
The State ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Historical Series ◽  
Input Parameters ◽  
Number Formula ◽  
Near Future ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

We investigate the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 in the state of Alagoas, northeast of Brazil, via an adaptive susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model featuring dynamic recuperation and propagation rates. Input parameters are defined based on data made available by Alagoas Secretary of Health from April 19, 2020 on. We provide with the evolution of the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and reproduce the historical series of the number of confirmed cases with less than [Formula: see text] error. We offer predictions, from November 16 forward, over the epidemic situation in the near future and show that it will keep decelerating. Furthermore, the same model can be used to study the epidemic dynamics in other countries with great easiness and accuracy.

Information Used in Detecting Upcoming Collision

Perception ◽  
10.1068/p3433 ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 525-544 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reinoud J Bootsma ◽  
Cathy M Craig
Keyword(s):  
Significant Role ◽  
First Order ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Over Time

In four experiments we examined the nature of the information used in judging whether events would or would not give rise to a collision in the near future. Observers were tested in situations depicting approaches between two objects (lateral approaches) and approaches between an object and the point of observation (head-on approaches), with objects moving according to constant deceleration or sinusoidal deceleration patterns. Judgments were found to be based, to a large extent, on the (in)sufficiency of current deceleration to avoid upcoming collision, as specified optically by tau-dot (τ̇). However, the information specified by tau (τ), that is the current (first-order) time remaining until contact, was also found to play a significant role. We deduce that judgment of upcoming collision is based on the detection of τ and its evolution over time, suggesting that observers are sensitive to Δτ rather than to τ̇ itself.

Narrating The City: spaces Of Urban Change, South London

2008 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 10-17
Author(s):  
Suzanne M. Hall
Keyword(s):  
Inner City ◽  
The Other ◽  
Urban Change ◽  
Spatial Transformation ◽  
Class Culture ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The City ◽  
North And South ◽  
Official Data ◽  
Over Time

This paper explores the documentation of social and spatial transformation in the Walworth area, South London. Spatial narratives are the entry point for my exploration, where official and ‘unofficial’ representations of history are aligned to capture the nature of urban change. Looking at the city from street level provides a worldly view of social encounter and spaces that are expressive of how citizens experience and shape the city. A more distanced view of the city accessed from official data reveals different constructs. In overlaying near and far views and data and experience, correlations and contestations emerge. As a method of research, the narrative is the potential palimpsest, incorporating fragments of the immediate and historic without representing a comprehensive whole. In this paper Walworth is documented as a local and Inner City context where remnants and insertions are juxtaposed, where white working class culture and diverse ethnicities experience difference and change. A primary aim is to consider the diverse experiences of groups and individuals over time, through their relationship with their street, neighbourhood and city. In relating the Walworth area to London I use three spatial narratives to articulate the contemporary and historic relationship of people to place: the other side examines the physical discrimination between north and south London, the other half looks at distinctions of class and race and other histories explores the histories displaced from official accounts.

Myelodysplastic syndromes – current diagnostics

2019 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-42
Author(s):  
Beata Celuch ◽  
Iwona Urbanowicz ◽  
Jadwiga Nowicka ◽  
Wiesława Nahaczewska ◽  
Iwona Bil-Lula
Keyword(s):  
Myelodysplastic Syndromes ◽  
Myeloid Leukemia ◽  
Medical Knowledge ◽  
Laboratory Diagnostics ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Cytogenetic Changes ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Clinical Problems ◽  
Over Time

Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) are a heterogeneous group of hematopoietic neoplastic diseases characterized by inefficient hematopoiesis, resistant peripheral cytopenias and an increased risk of transformation to acute myeloid leukemia. They may exist as primary forms, which most often are accompanied by molecular and cytogenetic changes or secondary forms, among others after chemotherapy or other cancers. MDS diagnostics are multi-stage and time-consuming. Includes multidirectional examination of peripheral blood and bone marrow for cytomorphology, cytogenetics, molecular disorders, immunohistopatology and immunophenotyping. The evolution of molecular changes in the course of MDS makes the clinical picture and laboratory parameters change over time, which requires constant updating of medical knowledge and high competences from cytomorphologists and histopathologists. The development of hematooncological diagnostics resulted in updating the MDS classification in 2016. The aging population will undoubtedly increase the incidence of myelodysplastic syndromes, which will be one of the most demanding diagnostic and clinical problems for haematologists and laboratory diagnostics in the near future.

ITA Expansion, Time, and Costs

2019 ◽  
pp. 113-140
Author(s):  
Susan D. Franck
Keyword(s):  
Missing Data ◽  
Dispute Resolution ◽  
Diffusion Of Innovations ◽  
Sociological Perspective ◽  
Descriptive Data ◽  
Expansion Time ◽  
Legal Costs ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Time Required ◽  
Over Time

Chapter 4 initially provides data about the growth of ITA as well as offering a series of frames against which to understand its evolution, including a sociological perspective analyzing changes in ITA’s caseload against Professor Everett’s theory of diffusion of innovations. It next explores other elements of time, namely case length and deliberative delays, by offering descriptive data and testing whether case length has reliably increased over time or whether resolution times vary on the basis of institutions resolving disputes. It then turns to exploring temporal elements related to bifurcation and separate opinions. After providing an explanation of the fiscal costs data particularly related to parties’ legal costs as well as tribunal costs and expenses (and conducting a variety of tests to explore the potential impact of missing data), the last section identifies the reliable relationship between the costs of dispute resolution and the time required to resolve the dispute.

scholarly journals Prediction of peak and termination of novel coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic in Iran

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (11) ◽  
pp. 2050152
Author(s):  
Sepehr Rafieenasab ◽  
Amir-Pouyan Zahiri ◽  
Ehsan Roohi
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Data ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Immunization Rates ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Official Data

The growth and development of COVID-19 transmission have significantly attracted the attention of many societies, particularly Iran, that have been struggling with this contagious, infectious disease since late February 2020. In this study, the known “Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR)” and some other mathematical approaches were used to investigate the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic to provide a suitable assessment of the COVID-19 virus epidemic in Iran. The epidemic curve and SIR model parameters were obtained with the use of Iran’s official data. The recovered people were considered alongside the official number of confirmed victims as the reliable long-time statistical data. The results offer important predictions of the COVID-19 virus epidemic such as the realistic number of victims, infection rate, peak time and other characteristics. Besides, the effectiveness of infection and immunization rates to the number of infected people and epidemic end time are reported. Finally, different suggestions for decreasing victims are offered.

Innovative Contribution of Women in Spanish Companies

2020 ◽  
pp. 410-431
Author(s):  
Beatriz Corchuelo Martínez-Azúa ◽  
Alfonso del Horno García
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Barriers ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Work Organisation ◽  
Autonomous Community ◽  
Professional Career ◽  
Women's Participation ◽  
Depth Interview ◽  
The Family ◽  
Official Data ◽  
Over Time

Official data in Spain show that women's activity rate is increasing, and women's unemployment rate is decreasing during the last years. Nevertheless, both of these indicators continue being higher in men, although this difference is reduced over time because the women's participation in the labour market continues growing. In this chapter, the main objective is to analyse the added value that women bring to organisations. A qualitative study is carried out, based in an in-depth interview conducted for women that work in the Autonomous Community of Madrid (Spain). Results show the women's perception about their added value in the organisations that is mainly manifest in aspects such as commitment, equanimity, work organisation, creativity, collaboration, and empathy (called “velvet management”). Women bring innovation and creativity in an environment of diversity. Nevertheless, there are still some cultural barriers that affect the family and professional life of women that limit their professional career.

Trends in the Incidence of Legal Problems and in the Use of Lawyers

1978 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 289-313 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yakov Avichai
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Government Regulations ◽  
Legal Problems ◽  
Socioeconomic Changes ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Over Time

Changes in the law, government regulations, socioeconomic changes, increased consumerism, the public's level of awareness—all these and other factors influence the population's demand over time for lawyers' services. This article analyzes the changes over time in the two elements that determine the demand for lawyers: the number of legal problems encountered by the population and the rate of use of lawyers in solving these problems. After showing that sequential occurrences of legal problems are not independent of each other and are age dependent, the author develops a mathematical model that explains the variability in the present number of problems encountered by different age groups. The number of problems is found to result from a relatively mild accumulation with age of legal problems, coupled with a strong increase in the number of problems from generation to generation. The analysis of individual legal problems reveals a variety of patterns from problem to problem in both the level of occurrence and the rate of use of lawyers for such problems. The author concludes that the combined effect of occurrence and utilization will operate toward a continuing increase in the demand for lawyers'services at least for the very near future.

scholarly journals Turnout Decline in Romanian National Elections: Is it that Big?

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 59-84
Author(s):  
Mircea Comşa
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Official Data ◽  
Over Time

Abstract According to official data, Romanian voter turnout decreased by half for the period 1990-2012. Gaps between official and self-reported turnout are larger than those from similar countries. Starting with these findings, this paper questions the official data regarding turnout and brings evidence that turnout in Romanian elections is increasingly underestimated. Three factors are responsible for this: the quality of the electoral registers, ineligible voters and emigration. The effect of these factors grew over time inducing the idea that turnout is sharply decreasing. In fact, the decrease is less pronounced, and most of it took place between 1990 and 2000. In the last part, I discuss the implications of the findings in three domains: theoretical debates, methodological and practical issues.

Target Detection, Rifle Marksmanship, and Mood during Three Hours of Simulated Sentry Duty

1989 ◽  
Vol 33 (20) ◽  
pp. 1414-1418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard F. Johnson ◽  
Donna J. McMenemy
Keyword(s):  
Target Detection ◽  
Rating Scale ◽  
Test Session ◽  
Profile Of Mood States ◽  
Detection Time ◽  
Target Speed ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Time Required ◽  
Duty Time ◽  
Over Time

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of sentry duty time on the soldier's speed of detection of visually presented targets, his ability to hit targets (rifle marksmanship), and his mood. Prior to the test day, each of eight subjects was given five days of training on the Weaponeer Rifle Marksmanship Simulator and was familiarized with the targets to be presented during testing. The test session lasted three hours, during which time the subject assumed a standing foxhole position and monitored the target scene of the Weaponeer. The Weaponeer M16A1 modified rifle lay next to the subject at chest height. When a pop-up target appeared, the subject pressed a telegraph key, lifted the rifle, aimed, and fired at the target. Speed of target detection was measured in terms of the time required by the subject to press the telegraph key in response to the presentation of the target. Marksmanship was measured in terms of number of targets hit. Target detection time and rifle marksmanship were averaged every 30 minutes. At the end of the test session, the subject completed the Profile of Mood States rating scale. The results showed that target detection time deteriorated with time on sentry duty; impairments were not evident within the first hour but were clearly evident by 1.5 hours. Marksmanship remained constant over time; soldiers were just as accurate in hitting the targets at the end of the 3 hours of sentry duty as they were at the beginning. Whereas the soldier's predominant mood during baseline practice sessions was one of vigor, during sentry duty the predominant mood was one of fatigue. The results of this study suggest that sentry duty performance may be optimized if it is limited to one hour or less.

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