Survival analysis in assessment of influence of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on probability and intensity of decline in the value of stock indices

Cox Proportional Hazard ◽

A Value ◽

Stock Indices ◽

Abstract The aim of the study is to assess the strength of the world stock exchanges reaction to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic at the turn of 2019-2020. The risk and intensity of the decline in the values of the basic stock indices were analysed. The spreading pandemic within a few months covered all continents and had a significant impact on the socio-economic situation of all countries. The study used methods of duration analysis. The time of the 20% drop in stock market indices was studied. This is a value that is taken as a sign of crisis. Kaplan-Meier's estimator was used to assess the probability of indices' value decrease. The risk of decline was determined by means of a logit model and the intensity of the decline was determined by means of an empirical hazard estimator and a Cox proportional hazard model. The intensity and risk of decline of stock indices varied from continent to continent. The intensity was highest in the fourth and eighth week after the peak and was highest on European exchanges and then American and Asian exchanges (including Australia). The risk of falling stock indices was highest in America, followed by Europe, Asia and Australia, and lowest in Africa. Half of the analysed indices recorded a 20-percent drop in value after 52 days (median duration). The study is a prelude to further analyses related to the crisis and the normalisation of the situation on world stock exchanges. It allows to learn about the impact of the pandemic on the economic situation and to detect differences between the continents. The methods from the survival analysis are used in the study to assess the impact of the pandemic on the intensity and risk of decline in stock exchange indices.

A survival analysis in the assessment of the influence of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on the probability and intensity of decline in the value of stock indices

Eurasian Economic Review ◽

10.1007/s40822-021-00172-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Beata Bieszk-Stolorz ◽

Krzysztof Dmytrów

Keyword(s):

Survival Analysis ◽

Economic Situation ◽

Stock Exchanges ◽

Proportional Hazard ◽

Risk Of Falling ◽

Cox Proportional Hazard ◽

A Value ◽

Stock Indices ◽

AbstractThe aim of the study is to assess the strength of the world stock exchanges reaction to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic at the turn of 2019–2020. We analyze the risk and intensity of the decline in the values of the basic stock indices by means of selected methods of survival analysis. The spreading pandemic within a few months covered all continents and had a significant impact on the socio-economic situation of all countries. We studied the time of the 20% drop in stock market indices. This is a value that is taken as a sign of a crisis. In order to assess the probability of indices’ value decrease, we use the Kaplan–Meier’s estimator. We determine the risk of decline by means of a logit model and the intensity of the decline by means of an empirical hazard estimator and the Cox proportional hazard model. The intensity and risk of the decline of stock indices varied from continent to continent. The obtained results show that the intensity is highest in the fourth and eighth week after the peak and is the highest on European exchanges and then American and Asian exchanges (including Australia). The risk of falling the stock indices’ prices is the highest in America, followed by Europe, Asia and Australia, and lowest in Africa. Half of the analyzed indices record a 20% drop in value after 52 days (median duration). The study is a prelude to further analyses related to the crisis and the normalization of the situation on world stock exchanges. It allows to learn about the impact of the pandemic on the economic situation and to detect the differences between the continents.

Hospital admissions in children who had pelvicalyceal diltation detected on ultrasound scan during pregnancy: an e-cohort study

International Journal for Population Data Science ◽

10.23889/ijpds.v1i1.326 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Melissa Wright ◽

Shantini Paranjothy ◽

David Fone ◽

Sinead Brophy ◽

Joanne Demmler

Keyword(s):

Hospital Admissions ◽

Proportional Hazard ◽

Ultrasound Scan ◽

Second Trimester ◽

Activity Data ◽

Cox Proportional Hazard ◽

Uncertain Significance ◽

ABSTRACTObjectiveTo explore whether children with pelvicalyceal dilatation (PCD, a marker detected during the 18-20 week gestation ultrasound scan in which there is enlargement of tubes that collect urine in the kidney) have more hospital admissions for kidney problems in childhood compared to children without the marker. Approach We were funded by NISCHR to study outcomes associated with markers of uncertain significance at the second trimester anomaly scan (Welsh Study of Mothers and Babies). Data collected in the WSMB was uploaded to the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) databank and record linked to hospital activity data. Patterns of hospital admissions for renal causes were described and compared between those with no markers and those with PCD. Children were followed up from birth until 31st December 2014 or until the age of 5. A Cox Proportional Hazard Model was used to investigate the impact of PCD on time to first presentation. Results (Preliminary)Of the WSMB cohort, 20,834 children were eligible for inclusion in analyses. Those with PCD had 6.29 times the hazard of a renal admission compared to those without the marker (95% CI: 3.69 to 10.72). Children with PCD were more likely to have multiple renal admissions to hospital - median (interquartile range) number of renal admissions, 2.5 (1 to 5) compared to 1 (1 , 1) in children without markers. ConclusionPreliminary analysis suggests there is increased childhood renal morbidity associated with the presence of a PCD marker detected on the 18-20 week gestation ultrasound scan. These findings will inform the discussions clinicians have with parents when discussing the implications of this marker for the health of the chid.

Analisis Premi Asuransi Jiwa Menggunakan Model Cox Proportional Hazard

Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics ◽

10.13057/ijas.v1i2.25280 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 1 (2) ◽

pp. 88

Author(s):

Firda Anisa Fajarini ◽

Mohamat Fatekurohman

Keyword(s):

Survival Analysis ◽

Life Insurance ◽

Hazard Model ◽

Insurance Premium ◽

Proportional Hazard ◽

Final Model ◽

Customer Data ◽

Cox Proportional Hazard

Cox proportional hazard model is a regression model that is used to see the factors that cause an event. The survival analysis used in this research is the period of time the client is able to pay the life insurance premium using Cox proportional hazard model with Breslow method.The purpose of this research is to know how sex, age, insured money, job, method of payment of premium, premium, and type of product can influence the level of ability of client to make payment of life insurance premium based on customer data from PT. BRI Life Insurance Branch of Jember in 2007.The result of this research is the final model of Cox proportional hazard obtained from several variables which have significant influence with simultaneous and partial significance test is the variable of insured money (X3), variable of payment method of premium (X5), premium variable (X6) , and insurance product variable (X7) . The four variables are said to have a significant effect on the model, so that the final model of Cox proportional hazard is obtained that consists of the parameter estimation (β) value of each variable Keywords : survival analysis; cox proportional hazard model; breslow method; life insurance.

Clinical spectrum and risk factors for mortality among seawater and freshwater critically ill drowning patients: a French multicenter study

Critical Care ◽

10.1186/s13054-021-03792-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 25 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Florian Reizine ◽

Agathe Delbove ◽

Alexandre Dos Santos ◽

Laetitia Bodenes ◽

Pierre Bouju ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cardiac Arrest ◽

Multicenter Study ◽

Psychiatric Comorbidity ◽

Proportional Hazard ◽

Cox Proportional Hazard ◽

Multicenter Cohort ◽

Global Threat ◽

The Impact ◽

Retrospective Multicenter Study

Abstract Background Drowning is a global threat and one of the leading causes of injury around the world. The impact of drowning conditions including water salinity on patients’ prognosis remains poorly explored in Intensive Care Units (ICUs) patients. Methods We conducted a retrospective multicenter study on patients admitted to 14 ICUs in the west of France from January 2013 to January 2020. We first compared demographic and clinical characteristics at admission as well as clinical courses of these patients according to the salinity of drowning water. Then, we aimed to identify variables associated with 28-day survival using a Cox proportional hazard model. Results Of the 270 consecutive included patients, drowning occurred in seawater in 199 patients (73.7%) and in freshwater in 71 patients (26.3%). Day-28 mortality was observed in 55 patients (20.4%). Freshwater was independently associated with 28-day mortality (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) 1.84 [95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.03–3.29], p = 0.04). A higher proportion of freshwater patients presented psychiatric comorbidities (47.9 vs. 19.1%; p < 0.0001) and the etiology of drowning appeared more frequently to be a suicide attempt in this population (25.7 vs. 4.2%; p < 0.0001). The other factors independently associated with 28-day mortality were the occurrence of a drowning-related cardiac arrest (aHR 11.5 [95% CI 2.51–52.43], p = 0.0017), duration of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (aHR 1.05 [95% CI 1.03–1.07], p < 0.0001) and SOFA score at day 1 (aHR 1.2 [95% CI 1.11–1.3], p < 0.0001). Conclusions In this large multicenter cohort, freshwater drowning patients had a poorer prognosis than saltwater drowning patients. Reasons for such discrepancies include differences in underlying psychiatric comorbidity, drowning circumstances and severities. Patients with initial cardiac arrest secondary to drowning remain with a very poor prognosis.

Early Determinants of Length of Hospital Stay: A Case Control Survival Analysis among COVID-19 Patients admitted in a Tertiary Healthcare Facility of East India

Journal of Primary Care & Community Health ◽

10.1177/21501327211054281 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 ◽

pp. 215013272110542

Author(s):

Neeraj Agarwal ◽

Bijit Biswas ◽

Chandramani Singh ◽

Rathish Nair ◽

Gera Mounica ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Survival Analysis ◽

Length Of Hospital Stay ◽

Healthcare Facility ◽

Case Control ◽

Proportional Hazard ◽

Cox Proportional Hazard ◽

Tertiary Healthcare ◽

Control Survival

Background: Length of hospital stay (LOS) for a disease is a vital estimate for healthcare logistics planning. The study aimed to illustrate the effect of factors elicited on arrival on LOS of the COVID-19 patients. Materials and Methods: It was a retrospective, record based, unmatched, case control study using hospital records of 334 COVID-19 patients admitted in an East Indian tertiary healthcare facility during May to October 2020. Discharge from the hospital (cases/survivors) was considered as an event while death (control/non-survivors) as right censoring in the case-control survival analysis using cox proportional hazard model. Results: Overall, we found the median LOS for the survivors to be 8 days [interquartile range (IQR): 7-10 days] while the same for the non-survivors was 6 days [IQR: 2-11 days]. In the multivariable cox-proportional hazard model; travel distance (>16 km) [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 0.69, 95% CI: (0.50-0.95)], mode of transport to the hospital (ambulance) [aHR: 0.62, 95% CI: (0.45-0.85)], breathlessness (yes) [aHR: 0.56, 95% CI: (0.40-0.77)], number of co-morbidities (1-2) [aHR: 0.66, 95% CI: (0.47-0.93)] (≥3) [aHR: 0.16, 95% CI: (0.04-0.65)], COPD/asthma (yes) [ [aHR: 0.11, 95% CI: (0.01-0.79)], DBP (<60/≥90) [aHR: 0.55, 95% CI: (0.35-0.86)] and qSOFA score (≥2) [aHR: 0.33, 95% CI: (0.12-0.92)] were the significant attributes affecting LOS of the COVID-19 patients. Conclusion: Factors elicited on arrival were found to be significantly associated with LOS. A scoring system inculcating these factors may be developed to predict LOS of the COVID-19 patients.

Father’s social and economic position has strongest impact on age at menarche in girls from Central India

Anthropological Review ◽

10.2478/anre-2019-0027 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 82 (4) ◽

pp. 357-371

Author(s):

Magdalena Kosińska ◽

Grażyna Liczbińska ◽

Rajesh K. Gautam ◽

Pragya Dubey ◽

Ajay Kumar Ahirwar ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Central India ◽

Age At Menarche ◽

Economic Factors ◽

Proportional Hazard ◽

Cox Proportional Hazard ◽

Kaplan Meier ◽

The Impact ◽

Socio Economic Factors

Abstract We assessed the impact of socio-economic factors on age at menarche among the adolescent female population from the state of Madhya Pradesh, Central India. Records such as date of birth, chronological age, caste affiliation, size of place of residence, parents’ level of education and occupation, number of siblings, body height and weight, and age at menarche were collected for 330 students of A Central University, Sagar. The impact of socio-economic factors on age at menarche was analysed using analysis of variance. To establish the probability of menarche occurrence at a given age, time-to-event analysis was carried out using Kaplan-Meier curves and the log-rank test for curve comparison. The association between probability of attaining menarche and the independent variables was investigated using Cox proportional-hazard model. ANOVA and the Kaplan-Meier curves showed statistically significant differences in age at menarche according to size of the place of residence, number of siblings, parental level of education, father’s occupation and females’ BMI. The Cox proportional hazard model revealed that father’s occupation was the strongest factor affecting age at menarche among all SES characteristics under study. Irrespective of rapid economic progress over the past few decades, Indian society is still patriarchal with societal male dominance. This translates into participation of fewer women in the paid workforce and labour market, their lower wage rates and smaller contribution to the household budget compared to their male counterparts.

CNS involvement and treatment with interferon-α are independent prognostic factors in Erdheim-Chester disease: a multicenter survival analysis of 53 patients

Blood ◽

10.1182/blood-2010-06-294108 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 117 (10) ◽

pp. 2778-2782 ◽

Cited By ~ 211

Author(s):

Laurent Arnaud ◽

Baptiste Hervier ◽

Antoine Néel ◽

Mohamed A. Hamidou ◽

Jean-Emmanuel Kahn ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Survival Analysis ◽

Confidence Interval ◽

Independent Predictor ◽

Interferon Α ◽

Proportional Hazard ◽

Cox Proportional Hazard ◽

Erdheim Chester ◽

Chester Disease

Abstract Erdheim-Chester disease (ECD) is a rare form of non-Langerhans histiocytosis, with noncodified therapeutic management and high mortality. No treatment has yet been shown to improve survival in these patients. We conducted a multicenter prospective observational cohort study to assess whether extraskeletal manifestations and interferon-α treatment would influence survival in a large cohort of ECD patients. To achieve this goal, we thoroughly analyzed the clinical presentation of 53 patients with biopsy-proven ECD, and we performed a survival analysis using Cox proportional hazard model. Fifty-three patients (39 men and 14 women) with biopsy-proven ECD were followed up between November 1981 and November 2010. Forty-six patients (87%) received interferon-α and/or PEGylated interferon-α. Multivariate survival analysis using Cox proportional hazard model revealed that central nervous system involvement was an independent predictor of death (hazard ratio = 2.51; 95% confidence interval, 1.28-5.52; P = .006) in our cohort. Conversely, treatment with interferon-α was identified as an independent predictor of survival (hazard ratio = 0.32; 95% confidence interval, 0.14-0.70; P = .006). Although definitive confirmation would require a randomized controlled trial, these results suggest that interferon-α improves survival in ECD patients. This may be seen as a significant advance, as it is the first time a treatment is shown to improve survival in this multisystemic disease with high mortality.

Systemic inflammation score (SIS) to predict the effect of the postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy for patients with stage III colorectal cancer.

Journal of Clinical Oncology ◽

10.1200/jco.2017.35.4_suppl.575 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 35 (4_suppl) ◽

pp. 575-575

Author(s):

Yoshiyuki Suzuki ◽

Koji Okabayashi ◽

Hirotoshi Hasegawa ◽

Masashi Tsuruta ◽

Takashi Ishida ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Colorectal Cancer ◽

Patient Selection ◽

Stage Iii ◽

Proportional Hazard ◽

Postoperative Adjuvant Chemotherapy ◽

Cox Proportional Hazard ◽

Selection For ◽

575 Background: Postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy (CTx) is a standardized treatment for patients with Stage III colorectal cancer (CRC). Since previous studies reported that the benefit of adjuvant CTx is estimated up to only 15% in Stage III patients, it is necessary to establish an appropriate patient selection for adjuvant CTx. Recently, systemic inflammation is reported to play a critical role in the progression of cancer and several studies demonstrate the impact of inflammation-based score, such as mGPS and SIS. There however is a lack of evidence for the influence of inflammation on patient requiring adjuvant CTx. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of SIS on patient selection of adjuvant CTx for Stage III CRC. Methods: Between 2004 and 2012 a total of 295 patients with Stage III CRC who underwent curative resection were included. The SIS was developed based on serum albumin and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) levels (SIS = 0; albumin > 4.0 g/dl and LMR > 4.44, SIS = 1; albumin < 4.0 g/dl or LMR < 4.44, SIS = 2; albumin < 4.0 g/dl and LMR < 4.44). Primary endpoint was defined as disease free survival (DFS). DFS rates were compared using Kaplan-Meier curves and Prognostic factors were assessed by Cox proportional hazard model. Results: The median follow-up period was 5.99 years. 75.9% of patients received adjuvant CTx. The distribution of SIS was SIS = 0; 32.6 %, SIS = 1; 43.3 %, and SIS = 2; 24.1 %. In multivariate analysis for overall patients, SIS was not a significant prognostic factor. Subgroup analysis according to each SIS score demonstrated that adjuvant CTx significantly prevented postoperative recurrence just only in patients with SIS = 0 (5-year DFS rate; adjuvant CTx (+) 85.5 % vs. CTx (-) 33.7 %, p < 0.001 ). In Cox proportional hazard model, protective effect of adjuvant CTx decreased in proportion to the increase of SIS (HR of adjuvant CTx (95 % CI): SIS = 0; 0.187 (0.089-0.393), SIS = 1; 0.601 (0.311–1.162), SIS = 2; 0.747 (0.319–1.752)). Conclusions: The SIS can provide an appropriate patient selection for patients with stage III CRC who can benefit from adjuvant CTx. The results from this study might enhance precision medicine for adjuvant CTx for Stage III CRC.

Early Marriages Last Longer: Pre-electoral Coalitions and Government Survival in Europe

Government and Opposition ◽

10.1017/gov.2014.8 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 50 (2) ◽

pp. 165-188 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Mihail Chiru

Keyword(s):

Survival Rates ◽

Data Sets ◽

Eastern European ◽

Proportional Hazard ◽

Coalition Governments ◽

Electoral Coalitions ◽

Cox Proportional Hazard ◽

While the existence of pre-electoral coalitions fundamentally modifies the bargaining environment in which potential cabinet formulas are negotiated, the survival chances of cabinets that include them follow predictable yet different patterns to those of ‘regular’ coalition governments. This article combines original and existing data sets on Western and Central and Eastern European cabinets with information about pre-electoral coalitions (1944–2008) in order to estimate the impact of such alliances on government survival rates. In doing so, I employ a Cox Proportional Hazard model and a ‘competing risks’ research design which distinguishes between replacement and early election hazards. The findings indicate that both Western and post-communist cabinets formed by pre-electoral coalitions exhibit considerably lower rates of discretionary terminations. This effect is reversed in the case of incumbent pre-electoral coalitions. Last but not least, Western European cabinets that replicate pre-electoral coalitions are significantly less likely to end through dissolution and early elections.

Effect of floor type and bedding system on sows lifespan

Acta Agraria Debreceniensis ◽

10.34101/actaagrar/52/2115 ◽

2013 ◽

pp. 155-160

Author(s):

Angéla Soltész

Keyword(s):

Survival Analysis ◽

Proportional Hazard ◽

Large White ◽

Cox Proportional Hazard ◽

Kaplan Meier ◽

Significant Difference ◽

The Difference ◽

Comparative Examination

The paper studies two nucleus pig farms in the Great Plain region of Hungary which have same management, same feeding system but different breeding technology (Farm A had solid floor with straw and Farm B had slatted floor without straw). The genetics of sows were crossbred Dutch Large White and Dutch Landrace. The comparative examination was based on the causes of culling according to the different floor type. To the analysis of culling reasons was applied the methods of survival analysis. In the analysis there were used the Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox Proportional Hazard model to the estimate the difference between the farms. The results of survival analysis showed significant difference (p<0.05) between the lifespan of sows that caused the difference between the survival probabilities of sows culled due to lameness. Furthermore there was showed that the sows kept on solid floor with straw have stayed in production longer than on slatted floor without straw. The hazard ratio was 1.434 that means that the culling due to lameness is 1.434 times higher by the slatted floor without straw facing by solid floor with straw.