Global Assessment of Climatic Niche Shifts in Three Rumex Species
Abstract Climatic niche shifts occur when species occupy different climates in the introduced range than in their native range. We know that climatic niche shifts are common occurrences, however we do not currently understand whether climatic niche shifts can consistently be predicted across the globe. Using three congeneric weed species, we investigate whether the known presence of a climatic niche shift in one range can help predict a species’ distribution in other ranges. We consider whether data either from other ranges or from closely related species can help predict whether climatic niche shifts will occur. We compared the climatic conditions occupied by Rumex obtusifolius, R. crispus, and R. conglomeratus between their native range (Eurasia) and three different introduced ranges (North America, Australia, New Zealand). We consider metrics of niche overlap, expansion, unfilling, pioneering, and similarity to determine whether i) climatic niche shifts have occurred and ii) climatic niche shifts were consistent across ranges and congeners. We found that the presence and direction of climatic niche shifts is inconsistent across ranges for all three species. Within an introduced range, however, niche shifts were similar between species. Despite this, species distributions outside of their native range could not be reliably predicted by the distributions of congeners in either their native or introduced ranges. This study is the first of its kind to consider niche shifts across multiple introduced ranges and species, highlighting new challenges in predicting species distributions when species undergo climatic niche shifts.