Clinical Risk Score for Central Precocious Puberty Among Girls with Precocious Pubertal Development: A Cross Sectional Study
Abstract Background The gold standard for the diagnosis of central precocious puberty (CPP) is gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) or GnRH analogs (GnRHa) stimulation test. But the stimulation test is time-consuming and costly. Our objective was to develop a risk score model with readily available features.Methods A cross sectional study based on the electronic medical record system including 627 girls with precocious puberty were conducted in the Children’s Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China from January 2010 to August 2016. Patients were randomly split into the training (n=314) and validation (n=313) sample. In the training sample, variables associated with CPP (P<0.2) in univariate analyses were introduced in a multivariable logistic regression model and selected using a forward stepwise analysis. A risk score model was built with the scaled coefficients of the model and tested in the validation sample.Results CPP was diagnosed in 54.8% (172/314) and 55.0% (172/313) of patients in the training and validation sample respectively. The CPP risk score model included variables of age at onset of puberty, basal luteinizing hormone (LH) concentration, largest ovarian volume, and uterine volume. The C-index was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.81-0.89) for the training sample and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.82-0.90) for the validation sample. Two cut-off points were selected to delimitate a low- (<10 points), median- (10-19 points), and high-risk (≥ 20 points) group. Conclusions A risk score model developed among girls with precocious pubertal development had moderate discrimination to stratify CPP risk, which could help make decisions on the need for GnRH (GnRHa) stimulation test.