scholarly journals Determining The Age Priority in Universal Vaccination Using Economic Evidence: Case From US Based On Dynamic Transmission Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dachuang Zhou ◽  
Taihang Shao ◽  
Zeyao Liu ◽  
Xingming Pan ◽  
Xueke Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Healthcare System ◽  
Medical Costs ◽  
The United States ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
System Perspective ◽  
Healthcare System Perspective ◽  
Dynamic Transmission Model ◽  
Per Capita

Abstract Background: Currently, increasing regions have realized that universal vaccination are necessary to prevent COVID-19. However many of them are facing problems associated with insufficient supply or chaotic allocation of vaccines. This study selected the United States population as an example and explored prioritization strategies of COVID-19 vaccination for different age groups to achieve the highest economic efficiency.Methods: We built a dynamic transmission model to predict the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections under the prioritization strategies of vaccination for different ages within a 180-day simulation period. Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) was selected as the outcome. Medical costs included direct medical cost and vaccine cost based on a healthcare system perspective. Data on SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology, vaccine efficacy, and medical costs were derived from publicly available databases and previously published literature. Different COVID-19 vaccines were included in scenario analysis. The robustness of the study results was evaluated by one-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis.Results: COVID-19 vaccination is economical compared with no vaccination. Priority vaccination for adults aged 25–59 years saves $31,664.2 million and that for adults over 60 years old saves $30,082.9 million in medical costs compared with no vaccine intervention. Additionally, priority vaccination for adults aged 25–59 years vs. over 60 years old saves $1,581.3 million. In contrast, priority vaccination for adults aged over 60 years vs. 25–59 years old gains 0.001 QALYs and costs $4.7 per capita, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $4,829.3/QALY, and it is economical when taking gross domestic product per capita of the United States in 2020 as the willingness-to-pay threshold. The results of sensitivity analysis indicate that the base-case results are robust.Conclusions: From a healthcare system perspective, it is most economical to prioritize adults aged over 60 years for COVID-19 vaccination in the United States, thereby achieving effective resource allocation and saving the government costs.

scholarly journals Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 372 (6538) ◽  
pp. eabg3055 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas G. Davies ◽  
Sam Abbott ◽  
Rosanna C. Barnard ◽  
Christopher I. Jarvis ◽  
Adam J. Kucharski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Educational Institutions ◽  
Stringent Control ◽  
Dynamic Transmission Model ◽  
Credible Intervals

A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.

Venous thromboembolism: Annualised United States models for total, hospital-acquired and preventable costs utilising long-term attack rates

2012 ◽  
Vol 108 (08) ◽  
pp. 291-302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew E. Borrego ◽  
Alex L. Woersching ◽  
Robert Federici ◽  
Ross Downey ◽  
Jay Tiongson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Healthcare System ◽  
Cost Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Total Hospital ◽  
The Us ◽  
Hospital Acquired

SummaryHealthcare reform is upon the United States (US) healthcare system. Prioritisation of preventative efforts will guide necessary transitions within the US healthcare system. While annual deep-vein thrombosis (DVT) costs have recently been defined at the US national level, annual pulmonary embolism (PE) and venous thromboembolism (VTE) costs have not yet been defined. A decision tree and cost model were developed to estimate US health care costs for total PE, total hospital-acquired PE, and total hospital-acquired “preventable” PE. The previously published DVT cost model was modified, updated and combined with the PE cost model to elucidate the same three categories of costs for VTE. Direct and indirect costs were also delineated. For VTE in the base model, annual cost ranges in 2011 US dollars for total, hospital-acquired, and hospital-acquired “preventable” costs and were $13.5-$27.2, $9.0-$18.2, and $4.5-$14.2 billion, respectively. The first sensitivity analysis, with higher incidence rates and costs, demonstrated annual US total, hospital-acquired, and hospital-acquired “preventable” VTE costs ranging from $32.1-$69.3, $23.7-$51.5, and $11.9-$39.3 billion, respectively. The second sensitivity analysis with long-term attack rates (LTAR) for recurrent events and post-thrombotic syndrome and chronic pulmonary thromboembolic hypertension demonstrated annual US total, hospital-acquired, and hospital-acquired “preventable” VTE costs ranging from $15.4-$34.4, $10.3-$25.4, and $5.1-$19.1 billion, respectively. PE costs comprised a majority of the VTE costs. Prioritisation of effective VTE preventative strategies will reduce significant costs, morbidity and mortality within the US healthcare system. The cost models may be utilised to estimate other countries’ costs or VTE-specific disease states.

scholarly journals Dynamic transmission model of routine mumps vaccination in Japan

2018 ◽  
Vol 147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taito Kitano
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Medical Costs ◽  
Social Costs ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
National Immunisation Programme ◽  
Dynamic Transmission Model ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
The One

AbstractThe mumps vaccine is not included in the national immunisation programme (NIP) of approximately 80 countries including Japan. To investigate the vaccine's cost-effectiveness, we developed a dynamic transmission model for routine one- and two-dose mumps vaccination programs in Japan. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio compared with a current programme over a projected 50-year period. We created a Japanese population model and performed dynamic simulation to estimate the number of patients enrolled in the current programme, the routine one-dose programme, and the routine two-dose programme over the next 50 years using the Berkeley Madonna program. We estimated the medical and social costs of natural mumps infections and vaccinations to analyse cost-effectiveness. Finally, we performed a sensitivity analysis with parameters including vaccine cost, vaccine efficacy, medical costs per case, social costs per case, incidence of adverse events and discount rate. Base case analysis showed that both the one-dose and two-dose programmes predominated and that quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were saved, compared with the current programme. The medical costs, total cost and QALYs saved during the study period in the two-dose programme compared with the current programme were 217 billion JPY, 860 billion JPY and 184 779, respectively. The two-dose programme surpassed the one-dose programme throughout the study period. In all the scenarios of the sensitivity analysis, two-dose vaccination was better than the one-dose programme. This simulation confirmed that the routine two-dose vaccination programme was more cost-effective and QALY-saving than either the one-dose programme or the current programme. Because of the variability of the results between the various models, further simulations with different models should be conducted.

scholarly journals Quantifying the potential for dominant spread of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.351 in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pratha Sah ◽  
Thomas N Vilches ◽  
Affan Shoukat ◽  
Abhishek Pandey ◽  
Meagan C Fitzpatrick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Immune Evasion ◽  
Immune Escape ◽  
Natural Infection ◽  
The United States ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Current Generation ◽  
Dynamic Transmission Model

Recent evidence suggests that the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.351 exhibits partial immune evasion to antibodies generated by natural infection or vaccination. We used a dynamic transmission model to evaluate whether this variant could become dominant in the United States given mounting vaccination coverage and other circulating variants. In the presence of the B.1.1.7 variant, we show that B.1.351 is unlikely to become dominant even when all fully vaccinated individuals return to their pre-pandemic behavior. However, an improved selection advantage of B.1.351 arising from a combination of increased transmission and immune escape could drive this variant to dominance as early as July 2021 and fuel a resurgence of cases and hospitalizations. Our study underscores the urgency for continued rollout of the current generation of vaccines despite the emergence of immune escape variants.

Can increases in Twitter posts predict increases in cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in the United States? Evidence that social media can inform epidemic surveillance. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruoyan Sun ◽  
Henna Budhwani
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Hot Spots ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Education Attainment ◽  
Public Health Systems ◽  
Per Capita

BACKGROUND Though public health systems are responding rapidly to the COVID-19 pandemic, outcomes from publicly available, crowd-sourced big data may assist in helping to identify hot spots, prioritize equipment allocation and staffing, while also informing health policy related to “shelter in place” and social distancing recommendations. OBJECTIVE To assess if the rising state-level prevalence of COVID-19 related posts on Twitter (tweets) is predictive of state-level cumulative COVID-19 incidence after controlling for socio-economic characteristics. METHODS We identified extracted COVID-19 related tweets from January 21st to March 7th (2020) across all 50 states (N = 7,427,057). Tweets were combined with state-level characteristics and confirmed COVID-19 cases to determine the association between public commentary and cumulative incidence. RESULTS The cumulative incidence of COVID-19 cases varied significantly across states. Ratio of tweet increase (p=0.03), number of physicians per 1,000 population (p=0.01), education attainment (p=0.006), income per capita (p = 0.002), and percentage of adult population (p=0.003) were positively associated with cumulative incidence. Ratio of tweet increase was significantly associated with the logarithmic of cumulative incidence (p=0.06) with a coefficient of 0.26. CONCLUSIONS An increase in the prevalence of state-level tweets was predictive of an increase in COVID-19 diagnoses, providing evidence that Twitter can be a valuable surveillance tool for public health.

scholarly journals Impact of the COVID-19 Vaccine on Asymptomatic Infection Among Patients Undergoing Pre-Procedural COVID-19 Molecular Screening

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron J Tande ◽  
Benjamin D Pollock ◽  
Nilay D Shah ◽  
Gianrico Farrugia ◽  
Abinash Virk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Relative Risk ◽  
Healthcare System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Screening Tests ◽  
Molecular Screening ◽  
Molecular Tests ◽  
Asymptomatic Individuals ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Several vaccines are now clinically available under emergency use authorization in the United States and have demonstrated efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19. The impact of vaccines on asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection is largely unknown. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study of consecutive, asymptomatic adult patients (n = 39,156) within a large United States healthcare system who underwent 48,333 pre-procedural SARS-CoV-2 molecular screening tests between December 17, 2020 and February 8, 2021. The primary exposure of interest was vaccination with at least one dose of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. The primary outcome was relative risk of a positive SARS-CoV-2 molecular test among those asymptomatic persons who had received at least one dose of vaccine, as compared to persons who had not received vaccine during the same time period. Relative risk was adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, patient residence relative to the hospital (local vs. non-local), healthcare system regions, and repeated screenings among patients using mixed effects log-binomial regression. Results Positive molecular tests in asymptomatic individuals were reported in 42 (1.4%) of 3,006 tests performed on vaccinated patients and 1,436 (3.2%) of 45,327 tests performed on unvaccinated patients (RR=0.44 95% CI: 0.33-0.60; p<.0001). Compared to unvaccinated patients, the risk of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection was lower among those >10 days after 1 st dose (RR=0.21; 95% CI: 0.12-0.37; p<.0001) and >0 days after 2 nd dose (RR=0.20; 95% CI: 0.09-0.44; p<.0001) in the adjusted analysis. Conclusions COVID-19 vaccination with an mRNA-based vaccine showed a significant association with a reduced risk of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection as measured during pre-procedural molecular screening. The results of this study demonstrate the impact of the vaccines on reduction in asymptomatic infections supplementing the randomized trial results on symptomatic patients.

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