scholarly journals Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 372 (6538) ◽  
pp. eabg3055 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas G. Davies ◽  
Sam Abbott ◽  
Rosanna C. Barnard ◽  
Christopher I. Jarvis ◽  
Adam J. Kucharski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Educational Institutions ◽  
Stringent Control ◽  
Dynamic Transmission Model ◽  
Credible Intervals

A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.

scholarly journals Differential effects of intervention timing on COVID-19 spread in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (49) ◽  
pp. eabd6370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sen Pei ◽  
Sasikiran Kandula ◽  
Jeffrey Shaman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

Assessing the effects of early nonpharmaceutical interventions on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread is crucial for understanding and planning future control measures to combat the pandemic. We use observations of reported infections and deaths, human mobility data, and a metapopulation transmission model to quantify changes in disease transmission rates in U.S. counties from 15 March to 3 May 2020. We find that marked, asynchronous reductions of the basic reproductive number occurred throughout the United States in association with social distancing and other control measures. Counterfactual simulations indicate that, had these same measures been implemented 1 to 2 weeks earlier, substantial cases and deaths could have been averted and that delayed responses to future increased incidence will facilitate a stronger rebound of infections and death. Our findings underscore the importance of early intervention and aggressive control in combatting the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Determining The Age Priority in Universal Vaccination Using Economic Evidence: Case From US Based On Dynamic Transmission Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dachuang Zhou ◽  
Taihang Shao ◽  
Zeyao Liu ◽  
Xingming Pan ◽  
Xueke Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Healthcare System ◽  
Medical Costs ◽  
The United States ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
System Perspective ◽  
Healthcare System Perspective ◽  
Dynamic Transmission Model ◽  
Per Capita

Abstract Background: Currently, increasing regions have realized that universal vaccination are necessary to prevent COVID-19. However many of them are facing problems associated with insufficient supply or chaotic allocation of vaccines. This study selected the United States population as an example and explored prioritization strategies of COVID-19 vaccination for different age groups to achieve the highest economic efficiency.Methods: We built a dynamic transmission model to predict the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections under the prioritization strategies of vaccination for different ages within a 180-day simulation period. Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) was selected as the outcome. Medical costs included direct medical cost and vaccine cost based on a healthcare system perspective. Data on SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology, vaccine efficacy, and medical costs were derived from publicly available databases and previously published literature. Different COVID-19 vaccines were included in scenario analysis. The robustness of the study results was evaluated by one-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis.Results: COVID-19 vaccination is economical compared with no vaccination. Priority vaccination for adults aged 25–59 years saves $31,664.2 million and that for adults over 60 years old saves $30,082.9 million in medical costs compared with no vaccine intervention. Additionally, priority vaccination for adults aged 25–59 years vs. over 60 years old saves $1,581.3 million. In contrast, priority vaccination for adults aged over 60 years vs. 25–59 years old gains 0.001 QALYs and costs $4.7 per capita, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $4,829.3/QALY, and it is economical when taking gross domestic product per capita of the United States in 2020 as the willingness-to-pay threshold. The results of sensitivity analysis indicate that the base-case results are robust.Conclusions: From a healthcare system perspective, it is most economical to prioritize adults aged over 60 years for COVID-19 vaccination in the United States, thereby achieving effective resource allocation and saving the government costs.

scholarly journals Time is of the essence: containment of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland from February to May 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian L Althaus ◽  
Daniel Probst ◽  
Anthony Hauser ◽  
Julien L Riou
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Prediction Interval ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Critical Parameters ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Early Exponential Phase ◽  
Dynamic Transmission Model ◽  
Early Implementation ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Doubling Times

AIM: In late February and early March 2020, Switzerland experienced rapid growth of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections with 30,243 confirmed cases and 1,860 deaths as of 10 May 2020. The sequential introduction of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) resulted in successful containment of the epidemic. A better understanding of how the timing of implementing NPIs influences the dynamics and outcome of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics will be crucial for the management of a potential resurgence in Switzerland. METHODS: We developed a dynamic transmission model that describes infection, hospitalization, recovery and death due to SARS-CoV-2 in Switzerland. Using a maximum likelihood framework, we fitted the model to aggregated daily numbers of hospitalized patients, ICU occupancy and death from 25 February to 10 May 2020. We estimated critical parameters of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Switzerland and explored counterfactual scenarios of an earlier and later implementation of NPIs. RESULTS: We estimated the basic reproduction number R0 = 2.61 (95% compatibility interval, CI: 2.51-2.71) during the early exponential phase of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland. After the implementation of NPIs, the effective reproduction number approached Re = 0.64 (95% CI: 0.61-0.66). Based on the observed doubling times of the epidemic before and after the implementation of NPIs, we estimated that one week of early exponential spread required 3.1 weeks (95% CI: 2.8-3.3 weeks) of 'lockdown' to reduce the number of infections to the same level. Introducing the same sequence of NPIs one week earlier or later would have resulted in substantially lower (399, 95% prediction interval, PI: 347-458) and higher (8,683, 95% PI: 8,038-9,453) numbers of deaths, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of NPIs in March 2020 prevented thousands of SARS-CoV-2-related deaths in Switzerland. Early implementation of NPIs during SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks can reduce the number of deaths and the necessary duration of strict control measures considerably.

scholarly journals Quantifying the potential for dominant spread of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.351 in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pratha Sah ◽  
Thomas N Vilches ◽  
Affan Shoukat ◽  
Abhishek Pandey ◽  
Meagan C Fitzpatrick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Immune Evasion ◽  
Immune Escape ◽  
Natural Infection ◽  
The United States ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Current Generation ◽  
Dynamic Transmission Model

Recent evidence suggests that the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.351 exhibits partial immune evasion to antibodies generated by natural infection or vaccination. We used a dynamic transmission model to evaluate whether this variant could become dominant in the United States given mounting vaccination coverage and other circulating variants. In the presence of the B.1.1.7 variant, we show that B.1.351 is unlikely to become dominant even when all fully vaccinated individuals return to their pre-pandemic behavior. However, an improved selection advantage of B.1.351 arising from a combination of increased transmission and immune escape could drive this variant to dominance as early as July 2021 and fuel a resurgence of cases and hospitalizations. Our study underscores the urgency for continued rollout of the current generation of vaccines despite the emergence of immune escape variants.

Educational Entrepreneurs in Tamil Nadu - A Profile

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siluvai Raja
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
United States ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Education System ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
The United States ◽  
Educational Institutions ◽  
Higher Education System ◽  
The Third ◽  
The World

Education has been considered as an indispensable asset of every individual, community and nation today. Indias higher education system is the third largest in the world, after China and the United States (World Bank). Tamil Nadu occupies the first place in terms of possession of higher educational institutions in the private sector in the country with over 46 percent(27) universities, 94 percent(464) professional colleges and 65 percent(383) arts and science colleges(2011). Studies to understand the profile of the entrepreneurs providing higher education either in India or Tamil Nadu were hardly available. This paper attempts to map the demographic profile of the entrepreneurs providing higher education in Arts and Science colleges in Tamil Nadu through an empirical analysis, carried out among 25 entrepreneurs spread across the state. This paper presents a summary of major inferences of the analysis.

Preliminary Estimates of Costs of Foodborne Disease in the United States

1989 ◽  
Vol 52 (8) ◽  
pp. 595-601 ◽  
Author(s):  
EWEN C. D. TODD
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Food Industry ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Foodborne Diseases ◽  
Hemorrhagic Colitis ◽  
E Coli ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Total Impact

Although the full economic impact of foodborne diseases has yet to be measured, preliminary studies show that the cost of illness, death, and business lost is high indeed. This impact is probably greatest in developing countries, but few facts are known. For the United States, preliminary estimates are 12.6 million cases costing $8.4 billion. These may seem excessive but other authors have postulated even higher case and dollar figures. Microbiological diseases (bacterial and viral) represent 84% of the United States' costs, with salmonellosis and staphylococcal intoxication being the most economically important diseases (annually $4.0 billion and $1.5 billion, respectively). Other costly types of illnesses are toxoplasmosis ($445 million), listeriosis ($313 million), campylobacteriosis ($156 million), trichinosis ($144 million), Clostridium perfringens enteritis ($123 million), and E. coli infections including hemorrhagic colitis ($223 million). Botulism has a high cost per case ($322,200), but its total impact is only $87 million because relatively few cases occur (270). This is because the food industry has been able to introduce effective control measures. Salmonellosis, however, is much more widespread (2.9 million cases) and affects all sectors of the food industry.

scholarly journals Covid-19 pandemic: What is the truth?

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
pp. 591
Author(s):  
Russell L. Blaylock
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Young People ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Early Treatment ◽  
The United States ◽  
Treatment Protocols ◽  
Scientific Support ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
History Of ◽  
Irreparable Damage

The ongoing “pandemic” involving the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 virus (SARS-CoV-2) has several characteristics that make it unique in the history of pandemics. This entails not only the draconian measures that some countries and individual states within the United States and initiated and made policy, most of which are without precedent or scientific support, but also the completely unscientific way the infection has been handled. For the 1st time in medical history, major experts in virology, epidemiology, infectious diseases, and vaccinology have not only been ignored, but are also demonized, marginalized and in some instances, become the victim of legal measures that can only be characterized as totalitarian. Discussions involving various scientific opinions have been eliminated, top scientists have been frightened into silence by threats to their careers, physicians have lost their licenses, and the concept of early treatment has been virtually eliminated. Hundreds of thousands of people have died needlessly as a result of, in my opinion and the opinion of others, poorly designed treatment protocols, mostly stemming from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, which have been rigidly enforced among all hospitals. The economic, psychological, and institutional damage caused by these unscientific policies is virtually unmeasurable. Whole generations of young people will suffer irreparable damage, both physical and psychological, possibly forever. The truth must be told.

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