Defect Prediction For Assembled Products: A Novel Model Based On The Structural Complexity Paradigm
Abstract Increased assembly complexity is one of the main challenges in manufacturing. Complexity can induce increased assembly cost and time, operational issues, costly defects and quality losses. Several approaches have been proposed in the literature to predict product defects by using assembly complexity as predictor. Despite defect prediction is of utmost importance from the early stages of product and related quality inspection design, most approaches are not directly applicable because they rely on the operators' prior subjective knowledge and are designed for specific industrial applications. To overcome this issue, the present research proposes a novel approach to predict product defects from a more objective evaluation of complexity. This is one of the first attempts to predict product defects and improve its quality with a purely objective assessment of the complexity of the assembled product, without the need for operators' evaluations and assembly experience. Defect rates in the model are predicted by using a recent conceptual paradigm of complexity that considers only structural properties of assembly parts and their architectural structure. The novel model is applied to a real assembly process in the electromechanical field and is compared with one of the most accredited in the literature, i.e. the Shibata-Su model. Empirical results show that, despite the super-linear relationship between defect rates and complexity in both models, the objective approach used in the novel model leads to more accurate and precise predictions of defectiveness rates, as it does not include the variability introduced by operators' subjective assessments. Adopting this novel model can effectively improve the estimate of product defects and support designers’ decisions for assembly quality-oriented design and optimization, especially in early design phases.