scholarly journals Dynamics based on analysis of public data for spreading of disease

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo S. Lima
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Public Health Agencies ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Health Agencies ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Official Data

Abstract The stochastic model for epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus disease based on the data set supported by the public health agencies in countries as Brazil, EUA and India is investigated. We performed the numerical analysis using the stochastic differential equation for estimating of the novel cases diary as well as analytical calculations solving the correspondent partial equation for the distribution of novel cases P. Our results display that the model based in the Itô diffusion fits well to the results diary due to uncertain in the official data and to the number of tests realized in the populations of each country.

scholarly journals Dynamics based on analysis of public data for spreading of disease

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo S. Lima
Keyword(s):  
Planck Equation ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Public Health Agencies ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Health Agencies ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Official Data

Abstract The stochastic model for epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus disease based on the data set supported by the public health agencies in countries as Brazil, EUA and India is investigated. We perform the numerical analysis using the stochastic differential equation in Itô’s calculus (SDE) for the estimating of novel cases daily as well as analytical calculations solving the correspondent Fokker-Planck equation for the density probability distribution of novel cases, P(N(t); t). Our results display that the model based in the Itô diffusion fits well to the results due to uncertain in the official data and to the number of tests realized in the populations of each country.

scholarly journals Dynamics based on analysis of public data for spreading of disease

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo S. Lima
Keyword(s):  
Planck Equation ◽  
Probability Density Distribution ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Public Health Agencies ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Health Agencies ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract The stochastic model for epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus disease based on the data set supply by the public health agencies in countries as Brazil, United States and India is investigated. We perform a numerical analysis using the stochastic differential equation in Itô’s calculus for the estimating of novel cases daily, as well as analytical calculations solving the correspondent Fokker-Planck equation for the probability density distribution of novel cases, P(N(t); t). Our results display that the model based in the Itô’s diffusion fits well to the results due to uncertainty in the official data and to the number of testsrealized in populations of each country.

scholarly journals Dynamics based on analysis of public data for spreading of disease

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo S. Lima
Keyword(s):  
Planck Equation ◽  
Probability Density Distribution ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Public Health Agencies ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Health Agencies ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractThe stochastic model for epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus disease based on the data set supply by the public health agencies in countries as Brazil, United States and India is investigated. We perform a numerical analysis using the stochastic differential equation in Itô’s calculus for the estimating of novel cases daily, as well as analytical calculations solving the correspondent Fokker–Planck equation for the probability density distribution of novel cases, P(N(t), t). Our results display that the model based in the Itô’s diffusion fits well to the results due to uncertainty in the official data and to the number of tests realized in populations of each country.

scholarly journals Stochastic analysis using public data for forecasting of epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus disease

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo dos Santos Lima
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Stochastic Analysis ◽  
Planck Equation ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Health Agencies ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Official Data

Abstract We propose a stochastic model for epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus based in data supported by the Brazilian health agencies. Furthermore, we performed an analysis using the Fokker-Planck equation estimating the novel cases in the day t as the mean half-width of the distribution of novel cases P(N,t). Our results display that the model based in the Itô diffusion adjusts well to the results supplied by health Brazilian agencies due to large uncertain in the official data and to the low number of tests realized in the population.

scholarly journals Public engagement and dialogic accounting through social media during COVID-19 crisis: a missed opportunity?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Landi ◽  
Antonio Costantini ◽  
Marco Fasan ◽  
Michele Bonazzi
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Social Media ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Public Engagement ◽  
Fake News ◽  
Public Agencies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Health Agencies ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Agencies

PurposeThe purpose of this exploratory study is to investigate why and how public health agencies employed social media during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak to foster public engagement and dialogic accounting.Design/methodology/approachThe authors analysed the official Facebook pages of the leading public agencies for health crisis in Italy, United Kingdom and New Zealand and they collected data on the number of posts, popularity, commitment and followers before and during the outbreak. The authors also performed a content analysis to identify the topics covered by the posts.FindingsEmpirical results suggest that social media has been extensively used as a public engagement tool in all three countries under analysis but – because of legitimacy threats and resource scarcity – it has also been used as a dialogic accounting tool only in New Zealand. Findings suggest that fake news developed more extensively in contexts where the public body did not foster dialogic accounting.Practical implicationsPublic agencies may be interested in knowing the pros and cons of using social media as a public engagement and dialogic accounting tool. They may also leverage on dialogic accounting to limit fake news.Originality/valueThis study is one of the first to look at the nature and role of social media as an accountability tool during public health crises. In many contexts, COVID-19 forced for the first time public health agencies to heavily engage with the public and to develop new skills, so this study paves the way for numerous future research ideas.

Curating the Evidence About COVID-19 for Frontline Public Health and Clinical Care: The Novel Coronavirus Research Compendium

2021 ◽  
pp. 003335492110587
Author(s):  
Andrew D. Redd ◽  
Lauren S. Peetluk ◽  
Brooke A. Jarrett ◽  
Colleen Hanrahan ◽  
Sheree Schwartz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Clinical Care ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
The Public ◽  
Successful Model ◽  
Medical Response ◽  
Public Consumption ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The public health crisis created by the COVID-19 pandemic has spurred a deluge of scientific research aimed at informing the public health and medical response to the pandemic. However, early in the pandemic, those working in frontline public health and clinical care had insufficient time to parse the rapidly evolving evidence and use it for decision-making. Academics in public health and medicine were well-placed to translate the evidence for use by frontline clinicians and public health practitioners. The Novel Coronavirus Research Compendium (NCRC), a group of >60 faculty and trainees across the United States, formed in March 2020 with the goal to quickly triage and review the large volume of preprints and peer-reviewed publications on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 and summarize the most important, novel evidence to inform pandemic response. From April 6 through December 31, 2020, NCRC teams screened 54 192 peer-reviewed articles and preprints, of which 527 were selected for review and uploaded to the NCRC website for public consumption. Most articles were peer-reviewed publications (n = 395, 75.0%), published in 102 journals; 25.1% (n = 132) of articles reviewed were preprints. The NCRC is a successful model of how academics translate scientific knowledge for practitioners and help build capacity for this work among students. This approach could be used for health problems beyond COVID-19, but the effort is resource intensive and may not be sustainable in the long term.

scholarly journals Lessons earned and lessons learned: What should be done next to counter the COVID-19 infodemic?

European View ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 154-163
Author(s):  
Nad’a Kovalčíková ◽  
Ariane Tabatabai
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Health Crisis ◽  
Societal Challenges ◽  
The World ◽  
Information Manipulation ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

As governments and citizens around the world have struggled with the novel coronavirus, the information space has turned into a battleground. Authoritarian countries, including Russia, China and Iran, have spread disinformation on the causes of and responses to the pandemic. The over-abundance of information, also referred to as an ‘infodemic’, including manipulated information, has been both a cause and a result of the exacerbation of the public health crisis. It is further undermining trust in democratic institutions, the independent press, and facts and data, and exacerbating the rising tensions driven by economic, political and societal challenges. This article discusses the challenges democracies have faced and the measures they have adopted to counter information manipulation that impedes public health efforts. It draws seven lessons learned from the information war and offers a set of recommendations on tackling future infodemics related to public health.

scholarly journals Misinformation Inoculation and Literacy Support Tweetorials on COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-14
Author(s):  
S. Scott Graham
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Genre Studies ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
Public Health Agencies ◽  
The Public ◽  
Literacy Support ◽  
Health Agencies ◽  
Significant Uptake

Many expected federal public health agencies to provide timely and accurate information about the COVID-19 pandemic. That did not happen. In response, physicians and epidemiologists have explored new ways to educate the public about COVID-19 and protect against misinformation. One genre that has received significant uptake is the tweetorial, threaded tweets that educate followers on technical matters. This article builds on prior genre studies of the tweetorial to explore how #MedTwitter and #EpiTwitter communities have refashioned the emerging conventions of the tweetorial as part of efforts to protect the public from COVID-19 misinformation.

scholarly journals Controlling the cascade of corona

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muneeba Azmat
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Press Releases ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Pandemic Response ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The pandemic of the 2019 novel Coronavirus has seen unprecedented exponential growth. Within three months, 192 countries have been affected, crossing more than 1 million confirmed cases and over 60 thousand deaths until the first week of April. Decision making in such a pandemic becomes difficult due to limited data on the nature of the disease and its propagation, course, prevention, and treatment. The pandemic response has varied from country to country and has resulted in a heterogeneous timeline for novel Coronavirus propagation. We compared the public health measures taken by various countries and the potential impact on the spread. We studied 6 countries including China, Italy, South Korea, Singapore, United Kingdom(UK), United States(US), and the special administrative region of Hong Kong. All articles, press releases, and websites of government entities published over a five-month period were included. A comparison of the date of the first diagnosed case, the spread of disease, and time since the first case and major public health policy implemented for prevention and containment and current cases was done. An emphasis on early and aggressive border restriction and surveillance of travelers from infected areas, use of information technology, and social distancing is necessary for control of the novel pandemic. Moving forwards, improvement in infrastructure, and adequate preparedness for pandemics is required.

scholarly journals Use of face coverings in public during the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas L. Arp ◽  
Tung H. Nguyen ◽  
Emma J. Graham Linck ◽  
Austin K. Feeney ◽  
Jonathan H. Schrope ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Older Adults ◽  
Observational Study ◽  
Level Population ◽  
Grocery Stores ◽  
County Level ◽  
Public Health Agencies ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Agencies ◽  
The U.S

AbstractPublic health agencies have recommended that the public wear face coverings, including face masks, to mitigate COVID-19 transmission. However, the extent to which the public has adopted this recommendation is unknown. An observational study of 3,271 members of the public in May and June 2020 examined face covering use at grocery stores across Wisconsin. We found that only 41.2% used face coverings. Individuals who appeared to be female or older adults had higher odds of using face coverings. Additionally, location-specific variables such as expensiveness of store, county-level population and county-level COVID-19 case prevalence were associated with increased odds of using face coverings. To our knowledge, this is the first direct observational study examining face covering behavior by the public in the U.S., and our findings have implications for public health agencies during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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