scholarly journals Analysis of Covid-19 Data for Eight European Countries and the United Kingdom Using a Simplified SIR Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gyan Bhanot ◽  
Charles DeLisi
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Daily Number ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Infective Period

Abstract Background: As the SARS-Cov-2/Covid-19 pandemic continues to ravage the world, it is important to understanding the characteristics of its spread and possible correlates for control to develop strategies of response. Methods: Here we show how a simple Susceptible-Infective-Recovered (SIR) model applied to data for eight European countries and the United Kingdom (UK) can be used to forecast the descending limb (post-peak) of confirmed cases and deaths as a function of time, and predict the duration of the pandemic once it has peaked, by estimating and fixing parameters using only characteristics of the ascending limb and the magnitude of the first peak. Results: The predicted and actual case fatality ratio, or number of deaths per million population from the start of the pandemic to when daily deaths number less than five for the first time, was lowest in Norway (predicted: 44 5 deaths/million; actual: 36 deaths/million) and highest for the United Kingdom (predicted: 578 +/- 65 deaths/million; actual 621 deaths/million). The inferred pandemic characteristics separated into two distinct groups: those that are largely invariant across countries, and those that are highly variable. Among the former is the infective period, TL = 16.3 2.7 days, the average time between contacts, TR = 3.8+/- 0.5 days and the average number of contacts while infective R = 4.4 +/- 0.5. In contrast, there is a highly variable time lag TD between the peak in the daily number of confirmed cases and the peak in the daily number of deaths, ranging from lows of TD = 2,4 days for Denmark and Italy respectively, to highs of TD = 12, 15 for Germany and Norway respectively. The mortality fraction, or ratio of deaths to confirmed cases, was also highly variable, ranging from low values 3%, 5% and 5% for Norway, Denmark and Germany respectively, to high values of 18%, 20% and 21% for Sweden, France, and the UK respectively. The probability of mortality rather than recovery was a significant correlate of the duration of the pandemic, defined as the time from 12/31/2019 to when the number of daily deaths fell below 5. Finally, we observed a small but detectable effect of average temperature on the probability of infection per contact, with higher temperatures associated with lower infectivity. Conclusions: Our simple model captures the dynamics of the initial stages of the pandemic, from its exponential beginning to the first peak and beyond, with remarkable precision. As with all epidemiological analyses, unanticipated behavioral changes will result in deviations between projection and observation. This is abundantly clear for the current pandemic. Nonetheless, accurate short-term projections are possible, and the methodology we present is a useful addition to the epidemiologist's armamentarium. Our predictions assume that control measures such as lockdown, social distancing, use of masks etc. remain the same post-peak as before peak. Consequently, deviations from our predictions are a measure of the extent to which loosening of control measures have impacted case-loads and deaths since the first peak and initial decline in daily cases and deaths. Our findings suggest that the two key parameters to control and reduce the impact of a developing pandemic are the infective period and the mortality fraction, which are achievable by early case identification, contact tracing and quarantine (which would reduce the former) and improving quality of care for identified cases (which would reduce the latter).

scholarly journals Predictions for Europe for the Covid-19 pandemic from a SIR model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gyan Bhanot ◽  
Charles DeLisi
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Detectable Effect ◽  
Daily Number ◽  
Average Value ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Mortality Probability ◽  
The Uk

AbstractWe develop and apply a simplified SIR model to current data for the 2019-2020 SARS-Cov-2/Covid-19 pandemic for the United Kingdom (UK) and eight European countries: Norway, Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, France, Germany, Italy and Spain. The most important result of the model was the identification and segregation of pandemic characteristics into two distinct groups: those that are invariant across countries, and those that are highly variable. Amongst the former is the infective period TL, which was very similar for all countries, with an average value of days. The other invariants were TR, the average time between contacts and R = NC, the average number of contacts while infective. We find days and . In contrast to these invariants, there was a highly variable time lag TD between the peak in the daily number of infected individuals and the peak in the daily number of deaths, ranging from a low of TD = 4 days for Italy and Denmark, to a high of TD = 17 for Norway. The mortality probability among identified cases was also highly variable, ranging from low values 3.5%, 5% and 5% for Norway, Denmark and Germany respectively to high values of 18%, 18% and 20% for France, Sweden and the UK respectively. Our analysis predicts that the number of deaths per million population until the pandemic ends (defined as when the daily number of deaths is less than 5) will be lowest for Norway (45 deaths/million) and highest for the United Kingdom (628 deaths/million). Finally, we observe a small but detectable effect of average temperature on the probability α of infection in each contact, with higher temperatures associated with lower infectivity.

scholarly journals Hasty Reduction of COVID-19 Lockdown Measures Leads to the Second Wave of Infection

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yara Hazem ◽  
Suchitra Natarajan ◽  
Essam R. Berikaa
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
The United States ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Global Impact ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

AbstractThe outbreak of COVID-19 has an undeniable global impact, both socially and economically. March 11th, 2020, COVID-19 was declared as a pandemic worldwide. Many governments, worldwide, have imposed strict lockdown measures to minimize the spread of COVID-19. However, these measures cannot last forever; therefore, many countries are already considering relaxing the lockdown measures. This study, quantitatively, investigated the impact of this relaxation in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, and Canada. A modified version of the SIR model is used to model the reduction in lockdown based on the already available data. The results showed an inevitable second wave of COVID-19 infection following loosening the current measures. The study tries to reveal the predicted number of infected cases for different reopening dates. Additionally, the predicted number of infected cases for different reopening dates is reported.

Northern EU countries may lose influence post-Brexit

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Northern European ◽  
Inner Circle ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Subject The impact of Brexit on northern European countries. Significance The United Kingdom's vote to leave the EU presents a particular challenge to northern EU countries -- some of which are, like the United Kingdom, not members of the euro-area -- as they will lose a powerful ally for a more competitive, fiscally disciplined and globally oriented EU. Impacts Brexit could accelerate a closer economic, financial and fiscal integration of the euro-area, which many non-euro-area capitals oppose. Brexit could widen the gap between an 'inner circle' of euro-area members and a periphery of non-euro ones. The loss of UK contributions to the EU budget means that the burden shouldered by northern EU countries, all net contributors, will rise.

scholarly journals Stroke Care in the United Kingdom During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Stroke ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdel Douiri ◽  
Walter Muruet ◽  
Ajay Bhalla ◽  
Martin James ◽  
Lizz Paley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Acute Stroke ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Stroke Care ◽  
Care Quality ◽  
Study Cohort ◽  
True Incidence ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Impact

Background and Purpose: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has potentially caused indirect harm to patients with other conditions via reduced access to health care services. We aimed to describe the impact of the initial wave of the pandemic on admissions, care quality, and outcomes in patients with acute stroke in the United Kingdom. Methods: Registry-based cohort study of patients with acute stroke admitted to hospital in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland between October 1, 2019, and April 30, 2020, and equivalent periods in the 3 prior years. Results: One hundred fourteen hospitals provided data for a study cohort of 184 017 patients. During the lockdown period (March 23 to April 30), there was a 12% reduction (6923 versus 7902) in the number of admissions compared with the same period in the 3 previous years. Admissions fell more for ischemic than hemorrhagic stroke, for older patients, and for patients with less severe strokes. Quality of care was preserved for all measures and in some domains improved during lockdown (direct access to stroke unit care, 1-hour brain imaging, and swallow screening). Although there was no change in the proportion of patients discharged with good outcome (modified Rankin Scale score, ≤2; 48% versus 48%), 7-day inpatient case fatality increased from 6.9% to 9.4% ( P <0.001) and was 22.0% in patients with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 (adjusted rate ratio, 1.41 [1.11–1.80]). Conclusions: Assuming that the true incidence of acute stroke did not change markedly during the pandemic, hospital avoidance may have created a cohort of untreated stroke patients at risk of poorer outcomes or recurrent events. Unanticipated improvements in stroke care quality should be used as an opportunity for quality improvement and to learn about how to develop resilient health care systems.

scholarly journals The Role of Age Distribution, Time Lag Between Reporting and Death and Healthcare System Capacity in Case Fatality Estimates of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrizio Vanella ◽  
Christian Wiessner ◽  
Anja Holz ◽  
Gérard Krause ◽  
Annika Möhl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
European Countries ◽  
System Capacity ◽  
Optimal Time ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Bed Capacity ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: European countries report large differences in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case fatality risk (CFR). CFR estimates depend on demographic characteristics of the cases, time lags between reporting of infections and deaths and infrastructural characteristics, such as healthcare and surveillance capacities. Methods: We used publicly available data from official reports of the national health authorities of Germany, Italy, France, and Spain on COVID-19. These include age-specific numbers of cases and deaths for different dates, which we used to compute age-standardized CFR ratios using a standard European population for standardization. Moreover, we investigated the impact of different potential time lags on the estimation of the CFR using data published by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). Finally, we described the association between case fatality and the intensive care bed capacity.Results: We found that age-standardized CFR estimates increased from the beginning of March to mid-May 2020 in all included European countries. In Germany, CFRs are lower than in other countries. However, the differences are much larger when comparing the crude risks rather than the age-adjusted risks. Thus, the different age distribution of the cases account for a major proportion of the reported differences. Case fatality estimates using time lags of 1-10 days converged in all countries over time, however, there is no optimal time lag to assess the CFR during the pandemic. Time lags that provided the most constant estimates and approach best the observed CFR after the pandemic ranged from 5-10 days in different countries and at different time points during the pandemic. For the association between intensive care bed capacity and fatality we found that days with a high need for intensive care beds were positively correlated with daily hospitalization fatality in France, Italy, and Spain, but not in Germany. Conclusions: Our results highlight that cross-country comparisons of crude CFR estimates can be misleading and should be avoided. However, to adjust for potential sources of bias more disaggregated data and information on surveillance and health care capacities are needed. Filling these gaps and harmonizing data across European countries will facilitate further analysis.

Euratom and Brexit: Could the United Kingdom Maintain One Foot in the European Union? Current Scenarios and Future Prospects of British withdrawal from the EAEC

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 134-151
Author(s):  
Andrea Circolo ◽  
Ondrej Hamuľák
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Independent Solution ◽  
Legal Regulation ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Status ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Energy Community ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The paper focuses on the very topical issue of conclusion of the membership of the State, namely the United Kingdom, in European integration structures. The ques­tion of termination of membership in European Communities and European Union has not been tackled for a long time in the sources of European law. With the adop­tion of the Treaty of Lisbon (2009), the institute of 'unilateral' withdrawal was intro­duced. It´s worth to say that exit clause was intended as symbolic in its nature, in fact underlining the status of Member States as sovereign entities. That is why this institute is very general and the legal regulation of the exercise of withdrawal contains many gaps. One of them is a question of absolute or relative nature of exiting from integration structures. Today’s “exit clause” (Art. 50 of Treaty on European Union) regulates only the termination of membership in the European Union and is silent on the impact of such a step on membership in the European Atomic Energy Community. The presented paper offers an analysis of different variations of the interpretation and solution of the problem. It´s based on the independent solution thesis and therefore rejects an automa­tism approach. The paper and topic is important and original especially because in the multitude of scholarly writings devoted to Brexit questions, vast majority of them deals with institutional questions, the interpretation of Art. 50 of Treaty on European Union; the constitutional matters at national UK level; future relation between EU and UK and political bargaining behind such as all that. The question of impact on withdrawal on Euratom membership is somehow underrepresented. Present paper attempts to fill this gap and accelerate the scholarly debate on this matter globally, because all consequences of Brexit already have and will definitely give rise to more world-wide effects.

Data protection and passenger name record in judicial criminal matters under the EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement

2021 ◽  
pp. 203228442199492
Author(s):  
Catherine Van de Heyning
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Data Protection ◽  
Personal Data ◽  
Cooperation Agreement ◽  
Judicial Cooperation ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Record Data ◽  
Criminal Matters ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

The submission discusses the provisions in the EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement on data protection as well as the consequences for the exchange of passenger name record data in the field of criminal and judicial cooperation. The author concludes that the impact of the Agreement will depend on the resolvement of the United Kingdom to uphold the standards of protection of personal data equivalent to the EU’s in order to reach an adequacy decision.

scholarly journals The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the mental health of young people: A comparison between China and the United Kingdom

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming-Bo Liu ◽  
Géraldine Dufour ◽  
Zhuo-Er Sun ◽  
Julieta Galante ◽  
Chen-Qi Xing ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Young People ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Do Environmental Stringency Policies and Human Development Reduce CO2 Emissions? Evidence from G7 and BRICS Economies

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (13) ◽  
pp. 6727
Author(s):  
Funda Hatice Sezgin ◽  
Yilmaz Bayar ◽  
Laura Herta ◽  
Marius Dan Gavriletea
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Human Development ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
United States Of America ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Impact

This study explores the impact of environmental policies and human development on the CO2 emissions for the period of 1995–2015 in the Group of Seven and BRICS economies in the long run through panel cointegration and causality tests. The causality analysis revealed a bilateral causality between environmental stringency policies and CO2 emissions for Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America, and a unilateral causality from CO2 emissions to the environmental stringency policies for Canada, China, and France. On the other hand, the analysis showed a bilateral causality between human development and CO2 emissions for Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America, and unilateral causality from CO2 emissions to human development in Brazil, Canada, China, and France. Furthermore, the cointegration analysis indicated that both environmental stringency policies and human development had a decreasing impact on the CO2 emissions.

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