АNALYTICAL EVALUATION OF INDICATORS OF BANKING SYSTEM CAPITALIZATION AND MACROECONOMIC STABILITY IN UKRAINE
Current trends in economic development of both the state as a whole and its individual sectors lead to a more detailed assessment of indicators of banking sector capitalization as indicators of system financial stability. Also, socio-economic fluctuations at the international level instigate a revision of macroeconomic stability indicators, which will allow analyzing the possibility of further development of Ukraine. It is important to note that a sufficient level of banking system capitalization is the basis for covering potential risks. With a high level of capitalization, the risk of bank default decreases, which has a positive effect on macroeconomic stability. The purpose of the study is to conduct an analytical assessment of capitalization and macroeconomic stability, to determine the forecast values of bank capital and GDP of Ukraine for 2021-2022 and to develop practical recommendations for improving the level of these indicators. The main tools used during the study are: methods of grouping, comparison and generalization, the method of exponential smoothing of time series, construction of an additive model, graphical method. STATISTICA was used for forecasting. The article provides an analytical review of the main indicators of banking system capitalization of Ukraine. Indicators of macroeconomic stability are studied. It is determined that the main indicators of capitalization in Ukraine are: H1 and H2 standards, the amount of balance capital of banks. The forecast of the volume of capital of banks of Ukraine and GDP for 2021-2022 by the method of exponential smoothing is carried out. Forecasting is performed with and without taking into account the seasonal component. The constructed models are adequate, so the results can be used in practice. Having forecast values of capital, banks will be able to adjust their resource policy and determine the deficit or surplus of this indicator. The projected values of GDP will help to adjust the state policy in terms of the formation of the indicator and to develop appropriate measures to further improve its level. Thus, the analytical review should be conducted on an ongoing basis, taking into account changes in the socio-economic policy of the state, fluctuations in the banking sector and changes in the world economy.