scholarly journals Modelling and Forecasting Domestic Tourism. Case Study from Armenia

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 96-110
Author(s):  
Karen Poghosyan ◽  
Gayane Tovmasyan
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Dynamic Modelling ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Sufficient Evidence ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Scale Models ◽  
Domestic Tourism ◽  
Modelling And Forecasting

This paper summarizes the arguments and counterarguments within the scientific discussion on the issue of modelling and forecasting domestic tourism. During Covid-19 many countries tried to develop domestic tourism as an alternative to inbound tourism. In Armenia domestic tourism has grown recently, and in 2020 the decrease was 33% compared to last year. The main purpose of the research is to model and forecast domestic tourism growth in Armenia. Systematization of the literary sources and approaches for solving the problem indicates that many models and different variables are used to forecast tourism development. Methodological tools of the research methods were static and dynamic models, years of research were 2001-2020, quarterly data. The paper presents the results of an empirical analysis, which showed that with the static regression analysis a 1% change in GDP will lead to a change of 4.43% in the number of domestic tourists, a 1% change in the CPI will lead to a 14.55% change in the number of domestic tourists. For dynamic modelling we used 12 competing short-term forecasting models. Based on the recursive and rolling forecast simulation results we concluded that out-of-sample forecasts obtained by the small-scale models outperform forecasts obtained by the large-scale models at all forecast horizons. So, the forecasts of the domestic tourists’ growth obtained by small-scale models are more appropriate from the practical point of view. Then, in order to check whether the differences in forecasts obtained by the different models are statistically significant we applied Diebold-Mariano test. Based on the results of this test we concluded that there is not sufficient evidence to favor large-scale over small-scale models. This means that the forecast results obtained for domestic tourist growth by using the small scale models would not be statistically different from the results obtained by the large scale models. Based on the analysis, the forecasted values for domestic tourists for the future years were determined. The results of the research can be useful for state bodies, as well as private organizations, and for everybody who wants to model and forecast tourism development.

scholarly journals Modeling Emissions from Concentrated Sources into Large-Scale Models: Theory and apriori Testing

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 863
Author(s):  
Roberto Paoli
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
General Procedure ◽  
Chemical Transport ◽  
Reaction Rates ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Background Concentrations ◽  
Transport Models ◽  
Chemical Transport Models ◽  
Scale Models ◽  
Effective Reaction

This paper presents a general procedure to incorporate the effects emissions from localized sources, such as aircraft or ship engines, into chemical transport models (CTM). In this procedure, the species concentrations in each grid box of a CTM are split into plume or small-scale concentrations and background concentrations, respectively, and the corresponding conservation equations are derived. The plume concentrations can be interpreted as subgrid contributions for the CTM grid-box averaged concentrations. The chemical reactions occurring inside the plume are parameterized by introducing suitable “effective” reaction rates rather than modifying the emission indices of the species inside the plume. Various methods for implementation into large-scale models are discussed that differ by the accuracy of the description of plume process. The mathematical consistency of the method is verified on simple idealized setting consisting of a reactive plume in homogeneous turbulence.

scholarly journals Leishmaniasis and Climate Change—Case Study: Argentina

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oscar Daniel Salomón ◽  
María Gabriela Quintana ◽  
Andrea Verónica Mastrángelo ◽  
María Soledad Fernández
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Scale Models ◽  
Vector Borne

Vector-borne diseases closely associated with the environment, such as leishmaniases, have been a usual argument about the deleterious impact of climate change on public health. From the biological point of view interaction of different variables has different and even conflicting effects on the survival of vectors and the probability transmission of pathogens. The results on ecoepidemiology of leishmaniasis in Argentina related to climate variables at different scales of space and time are presented. These studies showed that the changes in transmission due to change or increase in frequency and intensity of climatic instability were expressed through changes in the probability of vector-human reservoir effective contacts. These changes of contact in turn are modulated by both direct effects on the biology and ecology of the organisms involved, as by perceptions and changes in the behavior of the human communities at risk. Therefore, from the perspective of public health and state policy, and taking into account the current nonlinear increased velocity of climate change, we concluded that discussing the uncertainties of large-scale models will have lower impact than to develop-validate mitigation strategies to be operative at local level, and compatibles with sustainable development, conservation biodiversity, and respect for cultural diversity.

scholarly journals Pengembangan model permainan tradisional untuk membangun karakter pada siswa SD kelas atas

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Puput Widodo ◽  
Ria Lumintuarso
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Field Studies ◽  
Development Stage ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
School Students ◽  
Educational Models ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Scale Models ◽  
The Media

Penelitian ini mengadaptasi penelitian dan pengembangan pendidikan model Borg & Gall dengan menyederhanakan menjadi 2 tahapan sebagai berikut (1) tahap pra-pengembangan, tahapan ini meliputi (a) kajian literatur dan penelitian relevan dan (b) studi lapangan, (2) tahap pengembangan, tahapan ini meliputi (a) penyusunan draf, (b) validasi ahli, (c) uji coba model skala kecil, (d) uji coba model skala besar, dan (e) produk akhir. Uji coba skala kecil dilakukan terhadap 30 anak kelas atas SDN Aditirto Pejagoan Kebumen, Provinsi Jawa Tengah. Uji coba skala besar dilakukan terhadap 130 anak kelas atas dari SD Negeri 1 Karangpoh, 26 siswa SD Negeri 1 Logede, 22 siswa SD Negeri 4 Pejagoan, 24 siswa SD Negeri 1 Kebulusan, dan 30 siswa SD Negeri 3 Kebulusan Kecamatan Pejagoan, Kabupaten Kebumen, Provinsi Jawa Tengah. Instrumen yang digunakan untuk mengumpulkan data adalah wawancara, kuisioner penilaian karakter permainan tradisional, kuisioner observasi pengembangan permainan tradisional, kuisioner observasi keefektifan model permainan tradisional, kuisioner penilian observasi ahli media, dan kuisioner evaluasi siswa. Hasil penelitian berupa pengembangan model permainan tradisional terdiri dari 3 jenis permainan yaitu: (1) permainan goteng, (2) lari papan/segi empat, dan (3) kasti tangan. Berdasarkan penilaian para ahli materi dan guru penjasorkes dapat disimpulkan bahwa pengembangan model permainan tradisional yang disusun sangat baik dan efektif, sehingga model permainan layak digunakan untuk pembelajaran pendidikan jasmani pada siswa kelas atas. Developing Models of Traditional Games to Build Characters of Elementary School Students of Upper Grades AbstractThe study was conducted through two stages by adapting the research and development of educational models Borg & Gall as follows (1) pre-development stage, this stage include (a) review of relevant literature and research, and (b) field studies, (2) the development stage, this stage include; (a) drafting, (b) validation expert, (c) testing of small-scale models, (d) testing large-scale models, and (e) of the final product.The small-scale tryout was conducted by involving 30 students of upper grades of state elementary schools (SES) of Aditirto, Pejagoan sub-district, Kebumen regency, Central Java porovinsi. The large-scale tryout was conducted by involving 130 students of upper grades of SES 1 of Karangpoh, 26 students of SES 1 of Logede, 22 students of SES 4 of Pejagoan, 24 students of SES 1 of Kebulusan, and 30 students of SES 3 of Kebulusan Pejagoan sub-district, Kebumen regency, Central Java porovinsi. The data collecting instruments were an interview guideline, a questionnaire to assess characters of traditional games, a questionnaire to assess the traditional game development, a questionnaire for the assessment by the media expert, and a questionnaire for the evaluation by students. The results of the study of the development of models of traditional games were three types of games, i.e: (1) goteng game, (2) board/rectangle running, and (3) hand kasti. Based on the assessment by the materials experts and the teachers of physical, sports, and health education, it could be concluded that the developed modals of traditional games were very good and effective so that they were appropriate to be used in the learning physical education for the students of upper grades.

scholarly journals Modelling erosion and deposition in geophysical granular mass flows

2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-32
Author(s):  
Sylvain Viroulet ◽  
Chris Johnson ◽  
Nico Gray
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flows ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Laboratory Experiments ◽  
Pyroclastic Flows ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Snow Avalanches ◽  
Erosion And Deposition ◽  
Granular Rheology ◽  
Scale Models ◽  
Mass Flows

During hazardous geophysical mass flows, such as rock or snow avalanches, debris flows and volcanic pyroclastic flows, a continuous exchange of material can occur between the slide and the bed. The net balance between erosion and deposition of particles can drastically influence the behaviour of these flows. Recent advances in describing the non-monotonic effective basal friction and the internal granular rheology in depth averaged theories have enabled small scale laboratory experiments (see fig. 1) to be quantitatively reproduced and can also be implemented in large scale models to improve hazard mitigation.

scholarly journals Impact of Japanese Post-Disaster Temporary Housing Areas’ (THAs) Design on Mental and Social Health

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (23) ◽  
pp. 4757 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bris ◽  
Bendito
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Temporary Housing ◽  
Organization And Management ◽  
Kobe Earthquake ◽  
Management Measures ◽  
The Social ◽  
Post Disaster

The phenomenon named kodokushi, meaning death alone without the care or company of anyone inside temporary housing, appeared after the Kobe earthquake in Japan in 1995 with some 250 cases. This paper analyzes the evolution of Japanese temporary houses—to attempt to prevent the problem of kodokushi—from the point of view of management, how services and activities are organized, and design. We will use case studies as our methodological tool, analyzing the responses in 1995 Kobe (50,000 THs), 2004 Chūetsu (3000 THs), 2011 Tōhoku (50,000 THs), and 2016 Kumamoto (4000 THs). This article shows how the Japanese THAs follow a single design that has undergone very little variation in the last 25 years, a design which promotes the social isolation of their residents, making recovery—from the psychological perspective—and helping the most vulnerable members of society, more difficult. In small scale disasters (Chūetsu) applying organization and management measures was able to correct the problems caused by design and there were no cases of kodokushi: in large-scale disasters (Tōhoku), however, the difficulties to implement the same measures resulted in the reappearance of new cases at rates similar to Kobe’s. Our main conclusion is that the design of Japanese THAs must be reconsidered and changed to respond to the real needs of the most vulnerable groups.

This Too is Music

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rena Upitis
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Classroom Environments ◽  
Approaches To Teaching ◽  
Music Making ◽  
And Performance ◽  
And Mathematics ◽  
Traditional Approaches ◽  
Teaching Ideas

This Too Is Music guides and motivates teachers to foster classroom conditions that enable elementary students to thrive as improvisers, critical listeners, performers, and composers. Using anecdotes and illustrated with musical examples, the book explores how these aspects of music making are intertwined and quells any doubts teachers may have regarding their abilities to create an environment where children can improvise, dance, compose, and notate their musical offerings. While the book acknowledges the importance of traditional approaches to teaching notation and performance, its emphasis is on the student’s point of view, illustrating how young musicians can learn when their musical ideas are honored and celebrated. Various teaching ideas are presented; some are exploratory in nature, and others involve direct instruction. Regardless of their nature, all of the activities arise from research on children’s musical development in general and their development of notational systems in particular, and they have been tested in multiple elementary-classroom environments and preservice settings. The activities center on engaging with music through movement, performing, singing, improvising, composing, developing notational skills, and appealing to children across subjects, including language, drama, and mathematics. Activities encompass both small-scale classroom lessons and large-scale productions. This pedagogy has a timeless quality; even in our digital age, this musical environment appeals to children. The book invites readers to adapt the ideas to their own teaching settings, showing both preservice and established teachers that they can teach music creatively to build community and to inspire all who enter there.

Interdisciplinary data-constrained 3-D potential field modelling with IGMAS+

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denis Anikiev ◽  
Hans-Jürgen Götze ◽  
Judith Bott ◽  
Angela Maria Gómez-García ◽  
Maria Laura Gomez Dacal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Geophysical Methods ◽  
Receiver Functions ◽  
Research Centre ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Gravity And Magnetic ◽  
Structural Density ◽  
Scale Models

<p>We introduce a modelling concept for the construction of 3-D data-constrained subsurface structural density models at different spatial scales: from large-scale models (thousands of square km) to regional (hundreds of square km) and small-scale (tens of square km) models used in applied geophysics. These models are important for understanding the drivers of geohazards, for efficient and sustainable extraction of resources from sedimentary basins such as groundwater, hydrocarbons or deep geothermal energy, as well as for investigation of capabilities of long-term underground storage of gas and radioactive materials.</p><p>The modelling concept involves interactive fitting of potential fields (gravity and magnetics) and their derivatives within IGMAS+ (Interactive Gravity and Magnetic Application System), a well-known software tool with almost 40 years of development behind it. The core of IGMAS+ is the analytical solution of the volume integral for gravity and magnetic effects of homogeneous bodies, bounded by polyhedrons of triangulated model interfaces. The backbone model is constrained by interdisciplinary data, e.g. geological maps, seismic reflection and refraction profiles, structural signatures obtained from seismic receiver functions, local surveys etc. The software supports spherical geometries to resolve the first-order effects related to the curvature of the Earth, which is especially important for large-scale models.</p><p>Currently being developed and maintained at the Helmholtz Centre Potsdam – GFZ German Research Centre, IGMAS+ has a cross-platform implementation with parallelization of computations and optimized storage. The powerful graphical interface makes the interactive modelling and geometry modification process user-friendly and robust. Historically IGMAS+ is free for research and education purposes and has a long-term plan to remain so.</p><p>IGMAS+ has been used in various tectonic settings and we demonstrate its flexibility and usability on several lithospheric-scale case studies in South America and Europe.</p><p>Both science and industry are close to the goal of treating all available geoscientific data and geophysical methods inside a single subsurface model that aims to integrate most of the interdisciplinary measurement-based constraints and essential structural trends coming from geology. This approach presents challenges for both its implementation within the modelling software and the usability and plausibility of generated results, requiring a modelling concept that integrates the data methods in a feasible way together with recent advances in data science methods. As such, we present the future outlook of our modelling concept in regards to these challenges.</p>

Energy Use in the Japanese Copper Industry from the Meiji Period to World War I

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 82-109
Author(s):  
Asuka Yamaguchi
Keyword(s):  
World War I ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
World War ◽  
Product Usage ◽  
Meiji Period ◽  
Financial Power

Abstract In recent years, energy constraints have been discussed from a historical point of view. This study aims at examining the copper industry’s energy use in Japan from the Meiji period to the time of World War I and clarifying the process of, and reasons for, the selection of energy sources. This study considered not only energy use in the large-scale mines but also energy use in the small-scale mines and miners’ homes. As a result, it was clarified that the mines changed into a space that was based on a diverse combination of energy sources, depending on differences in location (access to energy), natural conditions, financial power, the required amount and price of energy, energy use technologies, ore quality, and end product (usage).

Seismic approaches for structural studies of the Sudbury basin

Geophysics ◽  
1984 ◽  
Vol 49 (10) ◽  
pp. 1675-1689 ◽  
Author(s):  
Derbew Messfin ◽  
Wooil Moon
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Computing Time ◽  
Granite Gneiss ◽  
High Amplitude ◽  
Ore Deposits ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Mining District ◽  
Seismic Velocities ◽  
Initial Stage ◽  
Scale Models

This study investigates the feasibility of applying seismic techniques in the search for ore deposits, with particular emphasis given to locating orebodies at great depths. The basic procedure followed was essentially an understanding of the forward problem, whereby the effects of the subsurface structure in a typical mining district were thoroughly studied. The initial stage of the study was devoted to determining the elastic parameters by laboratory measurement of seismic velocities and densities of core samples obtained from the Sudbury basin, Canada. By virtue of its ability to handle lateral as well as vertical inhomogeneities, fast computing time and flexibility, the asymptotic ray theory was judged to be more suitable for studying the effect of geologic structures typically found in the Sudbury basin. Both large‐scale and small‐scale models, representing actual geologic conditions in Sudbury, were constructed. The computed seismic response of the large‐scale models shows that the micropegmatite/oxide‐rich quartz gabbro and the mafic norite/granite gneiss contacts are characterized by substantially strong reflections, indicating that these two interfaces can serve as marker horizons in future seismic surveys. In the small‐scale models of mineralized structures, the sulfide body was outlined by a distinctly high amplitude of reflection. Both the traveltime and the dynamic characteristics of these models have features that are indicative of the presence of mineralized structures.

Small-Scale Models for Testing Masonry Structures

2010 ◽  
Vol 133-134 ◽  
pp. 497-502 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alvaro Quinonez ◽  
Jennifer Zessin ◽  
Aissata Nutzel ◽  
John Ochsendorf
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Model Testing ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Material Strength ◽  
Masonry Structures ◽  
Scale Models ◽  
Set Up

Experiments may be used to verify numerical and analytical results, but large-scale model testing is associated with high costs and lengthy set-up times. In contrast, small-scale model testing is inexpensive, non-invasive, and easy to replicate over several trials. This paper proposes a new method of masonry model generation using three-dimensional printing technology. Small-scale models are created as an assemblage of individual blocks representing the original structure’s geometry and stereotomy. Two model domes are tested to collapse due to outward support displacements, and experimental data from these tests is compared with analytical predictions. Results of these experiments provide a strong understanding of the mechanics of actual masonry structures and can be used to demonstrate the structural capacity of masonry structures with extensive cracking. Challenges for this work, such as imperfections in the model geometry and construction problems, are also addressed. This experimental method can provide a low-cost alternative for the collapse analysis of complex masonry structures, the safety of which depends primarily on stability rather than material strength.

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