Non-Linearities in the Relationship between House Prices and Interest Rates: Implications for Monetary Policy

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guay C. Lim ◽  
Sarantis Tsiaplias
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
House Prices ◽  
The Relationship

scholarly journals Mortgage Prepayment and Path-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy

2021 ◽  
Vol 111 (9) ◽  
pp. 2829-2878
Author(s):  
David Berger ◽  
Konstantin Milbradt ◽  
Fabrice Tourre ◽  
Joseph Vavra
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Current Level ◽  
Fixed Rate ◽  
Mortgage Prepayment ◽  
Recent Interest ◽  
Household Model ◽  
Path Dependent ◽  
The Relationship

How much ability does the Fed have to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates? We argue that the presence of substantial debt in fixed-rate, prepayable mortgages means that the ability to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates depends not just on their current level but also on their previous path. Using a household model of mortgage prepayment matched to detailed loan-level evidence on the relationship between prepayment and rate incentives, we argue that recent interest rate paths will generate substantial headwinds for future monetary stimuli. (JEL E32, E43, E52, E58, G21, G51)

scholarly journals The Relationship between Interest Rates, Income, GDP Growth and House Prices

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ting Xu
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Control Power ◽  
The Relationship

<em>This paper will analyse the relationship between interest rate, income, GDP growth and house prices. First, the control power of interest rate for the prices is limited. Second, people’s income increases, thus that also increases the demand for housing. But house prices are too high and will cause buying pressure. Third, the real estate industry’s growth and GDP growth have inseparable relationship, they interact with each other.</em>

Taxation and the Public Services

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Kenneth Galbraith
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Public Services ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
The Other ◽  
Public Expenditures ◽  
The Public ◽  
The One ◽  
The Relationship

This chapter examines the role of taxation in the culture of contentment. In the age of contentment, macroeconomic policy has come to center not on tax policy but on monetary policy. Higher interest rates, it is hoped, will curb inflation without posing a threat to people of good fortune. Those with money to lend, the economically well-endowed rentier class, will thus be rewarded. The chapter first considers the role of monetary policy in the entirely plausible and powerfully adverse attitude toward taxation in the community of contentment before discussing the relationship between taxation and public services, and between taxation and public expenditures. It shows that public services and taxation have disparate effects on the Contented Electoral Majority on the one hand, and on the less affluent underclass on the other.

Monetary policy influences in Australian housing markets

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 265-286 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Costello ◽  
Patricia Fraser ◽  
Garry MacDonald
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Empirical Method ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – This paper aims to analyze the impact of common monetary policy shocks on house prices at national and capital city levels of aggregation, using Australian data and the Lastrapes (2005) two-part structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) empirical method. Design/methodology/approach – The Lastrapes (2005) two-part SVAR empirical method is applied to Australian housing market and macroeconomic data to assess the impact of common monetary policy shocks on house prices. Findings – Results show that while the impact of shocks to interest rates on aggregate house prices is almost neutral, the responses of state capital city house prices to the same shock can exhibit significant asymmetries. Originality/value – This paper contributes to the monetary policy–asset price debate by examining the influence of Australian monetary policy on capital city housing markets over the period 1982-2012. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first empirical study that has adapted this Lastrapes (2005) methodology to the analysis of housing markets.

scholarly journals CONVENTIONAL AND UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY. THE CASE OF ROMANIA

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioana Plescau
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Recent Financial Crisis ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of our paper is to analyze the conventional and unconventional monetary policy in Romania, in the context of the recent financial crisis. We study the relationship between interest rates and credit risk, but also the non-standard monetary measures that were adopted by the National Bank of Romania and their impact on the banking system. Our results point to a decrease of interest rates in the years after the crisis, which is in line with the majority of central banks that have reduced monetary rates in order to sustain the economy and the credit activity.

scholarly journals Money and inflation in Switzerland

2022 ◽  
Vol 158 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Kugler ◽  
Samuel Reynard
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Monetary Aggregates ◽  
The Past ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
Secular Decline ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThis paper characterizes the relationship between monetary aggregates, inflation and economic activity in Switzerland since the mid-1970s. Traditional forms of money demand and quantity theory relationships have remained stable over the whole period. Broad money excesses over trend values, accounting for a secular decline in interest rates and thus in trend velocity, have been followed by persistently higher inflation and output with the usual monetary policy transmission lags. Money and exchange rate fluctuations can explain the major inflation developments in Switzerland over the past four decades.

scholarly journals House prices and the macroeconomic environment in Turkey: The examination of a dynamic relationship

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (215) ◽  
pp. 81-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Yıldırım ◽  
Mehmet İvrendi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
Market Variables

The aim of this paper is to examine the dynamic relationship between house prices, income, interest rates, housing permits, and share prices in Turkey, using Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models. This paper uses both monthly and quarterly data for the Turkish economy and applies four different SVAR models to reveal this dynamic relationship over the 2003-2016 period. The results show statistically significant and substantial relationships between the variables. The analysis also shows that house prices and housing permits as housing market variables are very sensitive to monetary policy and income shocks. The key finding of the study for policymakers is that a change in mortgage rates is the factor that most changes house prices. The study also shows that the housing market plays an important role in transferring monetary policy to the real economy in Turkey.

scholarly journals Redefining monetary policy rules: A threshold approach

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. e0252316
Author(s):  
Carmen Diaz-Roldan ◽  
María A. Prats ◽  
Maria del Carmen Ramos-Herrera
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Threshold Model ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Policy Rule ◽  
Key Variables ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Relationship

In this paper, we try to analyse the extent to which a redefinition of the monetary policy rule would help to avoid the zero-lower bound, as well as to explore the conditions needed to avoid that constraint. To that aim, we estimate the threshold values of the key variables of the policy rule: the inflation gap and the output gap. The threshold model allows us to know which are the turning points from which the relationship between the key variables and the interest rate revert. In the Eurozone countries, we have found that the inflation gap always contributes to increasing the nominal interest rate. On the contrary, the output gap works differently when it reaches values above or below the threshold value, which would favour the reduction of the interest rates towards the zero level.

scholarly journals The Effects of Monetary Policy on House Prices in Spain: the role of the economic and monetary union membership in the housing bubble prior to the great recession

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 5
Author(s):  
Tibor Pál
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Housing Boom ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Impact

Aim: This paper aims to discover the evolution of monetary transmission in Spain by focusing on the short-term interest rate, credit aggregates and house prices through different stages of economic development and European integration between 1975 and 2008. In addition, the analysis devotes special attention to the interval of the last housing boom, in order to reveal the importance of the interest rate policy of the ECB.Design / Research methods: The study applies a tri-variate autoregressive model assigned to three overlapping periods outlined by regime shifts in the Spanish economy. The estimation output determines the strength and persistency of the links between interest rates, credit aggregates and house prices. Consequently, the results of the econometric analysis provide proper base for comparison in order to identify the dominating channels of monetary transmissions through a prolonged period.Conclusions / findings: It is found that the transmission mechanism in Spain essentially altered over time since 1975. At the beginning of the full analysed interval the role of the credit channel was dominant, then its importance gradually diminished. After the EMU accession the traditional interest rate channel became the leading factor with an intensified and more persistent effect on house prices.Originality / value of the article: While there are numerous researches aimed at estimating the impact of monetary policy on the real economy, empirical studies focusing exclusively on the link between interest rate policy and house prices in Spain are still rare. As the present paper concentrates solely on the Spanish characteristics through extended interval, the study provides country-specific inferences.Implications of the research: Understanding the mechanism of the monetary policy effects on the housing sector is an essential aspect of designing policy interventions aimed at keeping house price development in check.Limitations of the research: Despite the significant results of the empirical analysis, the excessively dynamic increase in the property prices suggests that the factor of irrational expectations also played important role in the latest Spanish housing bubble.Key words: Monetary policy, VAR, ECB, Housing boom, Monetary transmission mechanismJEL: E52, E58.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document