A Convenient Truth: The Convenience Yield, Low Interest Rates and Implications for Fiscal Policy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis Bonam
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Convenience Yield ◽  
Low Interest Rates

scholarly journals Activist Fiscal Policy

2010 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 141-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan J Auerbach ◽  
William G Gale ◽  
Benjamin H Harris
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
The Many ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy

During and after the “Great Recession” that began in December 2007 the U.S. federal government enacted several rounds of activist fiscal policy. In this paper, we review the recent evolution of thinking and evidence regarding the effectiveness of activist fiscal policy. Although fiscal interventions aimed at stimulating and stabilizing the economy have returned to common use, their efficacy remains controversial. We review the debate about the traditional types of fiscal policy interventions, such as broad-based tax cuts and spending increases, as well as more targeted policies. While there have been improvements in estimates of the effects of broad-based policies, much of what has been learned recently concerns how such multipliers might vary with respect to economic conditions, such as the credit market disruptions and very low interest rates that were central features of the Great Recession. The eclectic and innovative interventions by the Federal Reserve and other central banks during this period highlight the imprecise divisions between monetary and fiscal policy and the many channels through which fiscal policies can be implemented.

scholarly journals Government Spending Effects in a Policy Constrained Environment

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (91) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruoyun Mao ◽  
Shu-Chun Susan Yang
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Policy Regimes ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Rate Environment

The theoretical literature generally finds that government spending multipliers are bigger than unity in a low interest rate environment. Using a fully nonlinear New Keynesian model, we show that such big multipliers can decrease when 1) an initial debt-to-GDP ratio is higher, 2) tax burden is higher, 3) debt maturity is longer, and 4) monetary policy is more responsive to inflation. When monetary and fiscal policy regimes can switch, policy uncertainty also reduces spending multipliers. In particular, when higher inflation induces a rising probability to switch to a regime in which monetary policy actively controls inflation and fiscal policy raises future taxes to stabilize government debt, the multipliers can fall much below unity, especially with an initial high debt ratio. Our findings help reconcile the mixed empirical evidence on government spending effects with low interest rates.

scholarly journals Fiscal sustainability and low interest rates: what an indicator can(’t) tell

Empirica ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Werding
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Demographic Ageing ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Ministry Of Finance ◽  
Sustainability Report

AbstractThe indicator that is commonly used to assess the long-term fiscal sustainability of public finances in EU member states (“S2”) is also defined if government borrowing rates are assumed to be permanently lower than the growth rate of GDP. Under these circumstances, however, it no longer provides a reliable orientation for fiscal policy. I illustrate these findings based on simulations prepared for the Fifth Sustainability Report published by the German Federal Ministry of Finance. In addition, I discuss the interpretation of the indicator in a low-interest environment and the assumption that relevant interest rates may continue to be low if there are substantial challenges for fiscal sustainability, e.g., through demographic ageing.

scholarly journals Wyzwania polityki fiskalnej dla państw Unii Europejskiej w dobie pandemii COVID-19

Studia BAS ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (67) ◽  
pp. 117-132
Author(s):  
Anna Wildowicz-Szumarska
Keyword(s):  
Public Finance ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Crisis Conditions ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

The aim of the article is to explore the size and the structure of fiscal packages, implemented in response to the crisis caused by COVID-19, from the point of view of their impact on the security and stability of public finance. The first section provides an overview of the economic theory on the role of fiscal policy, including the causes of fiscal intervention. Next, difficulties in conducting fiscal policy under the conditions of pandemic are presented. In addition, fiscal instruments and their size are analysed in the context of their influence on budget results. In conclusion, it is claimed that fiscal packages should be temporary and targeted in order not to create a permanent burden on public finance, ensuring budget neutrality in the medium term. The empirical analysis expands the current knowledge on potential effects of fiscal policy implemented under the crisis conditions and low interest rates, when macroeconomic stabilisation can only be ensured through fiscal policy instruments, despite the accompanying fiscal costs related to the increase in public debt.

DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN FISKAL TERHADAP KINERJA SEKTOR PERTANIAN DI SULAWESI TENGGARA

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
La Ode Jabuddin ◽  
Ayub M Padangaran ◽  
Azhar Bafadal Bafadal
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Simultaneous Equations ◽  
Poor People ◽  
Land Area ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Historical Simulation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Direct Expenditure

This study aims to: (1) Knowing the dynamics of fiscal policy and the performance of the agricultural sector, (2) Analyze the factors that influence fiscal policy and the performance                   of the agricultural sector, and (3) Analyzing the impact of fiscal policy on the performance of the agricultural sector. The data used in this study were pooled 2005-2013 data in the aggregate. Econometric model the impact of fiscal policy on the performance of the agricultural sector is built in the form of simultaneous equations, consisting of 7 equations with 25 total variables in the model, 7 endogenous variables, 12 exogenous variables, and 6 variables lag. The model is estimated by 2SLS method SYSLIN procedures and historical simulation with SIMNLIN procedure.The results showed that: (1) The development of fiscal policy in Southeast Sulawesi from year to year tends to increase, (2) The performance of the agricultural sector from the aspect of GDP has decreased, from the aspect of labor is still consistent, in terms of investment to grow positively, and assign roles which means to decrease the number of poor people, (3) factors affecting fiscal policy is local revenues, equalization funds, other revenues, as well as the lag fiscal policy, (4) the factors that affect the performance of the agricultural sector from the aspect GDP is labor, direct expenditure and GDP lag; from the aspect of labor is the total labor force, investment, land area, direct expenditure, as well as the lag of labor; from the aspect of investment is influenced by GDP per capita, land area, interest rates and investment lag; as well as from the aspect of poor people, are affected by population, investments, direct expenditure and poverty lag, (5). Fiscal policy impact on the agricultural sector GDP increase, a decrease in the number of poor, declining agricultural laborers, and a decrease in the amount of investment in the agricultural sector.Keywords: Fiscal policy, the performance of the agricultural sector, the simultaneous equations

Remaking Retirement

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Older Workers ◽  
Older Persons ◽  
The United States ◽  
Older Population ◽  
The Past ◽  
Cost Of Education ◽  
The World ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Key Aspects

Around the world, people nearing and entering retirement are holding ever-greater levels of debt than in the past. This is not a benign situation, as many pre-retirees and retirees are stressed about their indebtedness. Moreover, this growth in debt among the older population may render retirees vulnerable to financial shocks, medical care bills, and changes in interest rates. Contributors to this volume explore key aspects of the rise in debt across older cohorts, drill down into the types of debt and reasons for debt incurred by the older population, and review policies to remedy some of the financial problems facing older persons, in the United States and elsewhere. The authors explore which groups are most affected by debt, and they also identify the factors causing this important increase in leverage at older ages. It is clear that the economic and market environments are influential when it comes to saving and debt. Access to easy borrowing, low interest rates, and the rising cost of education have had important impacts on how much people borrow, and how much debt they carry at older ages. In this environment, the capacity to manage debt is ever more important as older workers lack the opportunity to recover for mistakes.

scholarly journals Special Issue “Interplay between Financial and Actuarial Mathematics”

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 139
Author(s):  
Corina Constantinescu ◽  
Julia Eisenberg
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Control Theory ◽  
Option Pricing ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Mathematics ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Actuarial Mathematics ◽  
Mortality Models ◽  
Low Interest Rates

The Special Issue aims to highlight the interaction between actuarial and financial mathematics, which, due to the recent low interest rates and implications of COVID-19, requires an interlace between actuarial and financial methods, along with control theory, machine learning, mortality models, option pricing, hedging, unit-linked contracts and drawdown analysis, among others [...]

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