scholarly journals Vehicle and Fleet Random Effects in a Model of Insurance Rating for Fleets of Vehicles

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (01) ◽  
pp. 25-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-François Angers ◽  
Denise Desjardins ◽  
Georges Dionne ◽  
François Guertin
Keyword(s):  
Road Safety ◽  
Parametric Model ◽  
Automobile Insurance ◽  
Vehicle Accidents ◽  
The Road ◽  
Semiparametric Approach ◽  
Safety Code ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

We are proposing a parametric model to rate insurance for vehicles belonging to a fleet. The tables of premiums presented take into account past vehicle accidents, observable characteristics of the vehicles and fleets, and violations of the road-safety code committed by drivers and carriers. The premiums are also adjusted according to accidents accumulated by the fleets over time. The proposed model accounts directly for explicit changes in the various components of the probability of accidents. It represents an extension of bonus malus-type automobile insurance models for individual premiums (Lemaire, 1985; Dionne and Vanasse, 1989 and 1992; Pinquet, 1997 and 1998; Frangos and Vrontos, 2001; Purcaru and Denuit, 2003). The extension adds a fleet effect to the vehicle effect so as to account for the impact that the unobservable characteristics or actions of carriers can have on truck accident rates. This form of rating makes it possible to visualize what impact the behaviors of owners and drivers can have on the predicted rate of accidents and, consequently, on premiums. The results are compared to those of the semiparametric approach.

scholarly journals Vehicle and Fleet Random Effects in a Model of Insurance Rating for Fleets of Vehicles

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-François Angers ◽  
Denise Desjardins ◽  
Georges Dionne ◽  
François Guertin
Keyword(s):  
Road Safety ◽  
Parametric Model ◽  
Automobile Insurance ◽  
Vehicle Accidents ◽  
The Road ◽  
Semiparametric Approach ◽  
Safety Code ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

We are proposing a parametric model to rate insurance for vehicles belonging to a fleet. The tables of premiums presented take into account past vehicle accidents, observable characteristics of the vehicles and fleets, and violations of the road-safety code committed by drivers and carriers. The premiums are also adjusted according to accidents accumulated by the fleets over time. The proposed model accounts directly for explicit changes in the various components of the probability of accidents. It represents an extension of bonus malus-type automobile insurance models for individual premiums (Lemaire, 1985; Dionne and Vanasse, 1989 and 1992; Pinquet, 1997 and 1998; Frangos and Vrontos, 2001; Purcaru and Denuit, 2003). The extension adds a fleet effect to the vehicle effect so as to account for the impact that the unobservable characteristics or actions of carriers can have on truck accident rates. This form of rating makes it possible to visualize what impact the behaviors of owners and drivers can have on the predicted rate of accidents and, consequently, on premiums. The results are compared to those of the semiparametric approach.

scholarly journals Modelo para avaliação do desempenho da segurança viária através da simulação microscópica

TRANSPORTES ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Flávio José Craveiro Cunto ◽  
Frank F. Saccomanno
Keyword(s):  
Road Safety ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
The Other ◽  
Microscopic Simulation ◽  
The Road ◽  
Potential Index ◽  
Mechanistic Approach ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Safety Studies ◽  
Over Time

<p><strong>Resumo: </strong>O uso da microssimulação em estudos de segurança viária tem sido investigado mais frequentemente nas últimas duas décadas.Em tese, essa ferramenta pode atuar como plataforma para o desenvolvimento de uma abordagem mais mecanística dos eventos que precedem a ocorrência de acidentes de trânsito. Este artigo apresenta um modelo para avaliação do desempenho da segurança viária através da microssimulação. O modelo utiliza o aplicativo VISSIM© versão 4.3 como plataforma de simulação e estima interações longitudinais e transversais entre veículos ao longo do tempo, a partir do índice de potencial para acidentes (CPI). A utilidade do modelo proposto foi ilustrada através de sua aplicação em interseções isoladas semaforizadas ou não. Os resultados indicam que a introdução do semáforo aumentou a frequência e severidade das interações longitudinais e, reduziu o número de veículos interagindo transversalmente. Estes resultados confirmam o potencial considerável para o uso da microssimulação em estudos de segurança viária.</p><strong>Abstract: </strong>The use of microsimulation in safety studies has been more frequently investigated over the last two decades. In theory, this tool can serve as platform for the development of a more mechanistic approach regarding the events preceding a crash. This paper presents a model for assessing the road safety performance using microsimulation. The model applies the software VISSIM© 4.3 as simulation platform and estimates rear-end and angled interactions for different vehicle over time via the crash potential index (CPI). The usefulness of the proposed model has been illustrated throughout its application to signalized and unsignalized isolated intersections. The results indicate that the signalization increased both frequency and severity for rear-end interactions, decreasing, on the other hand, the number of angled interactions. These results also confirm the potential for using microscopic simulation in road safety studies.

scholarly journals The impact of quarantine on Covid-19 infections

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (s1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Marshall
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
Infection Rate ◽  
District Level ◽  
Infection Model ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Lower Infection ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Lower Infection Rate ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Objectives: Coronavirushas had profound effects on people’s lives and the economy of many countries, generating controversy between the need to establish quarantines and other social distancing measures to protect people’s health and the need to reactivate the economy. This study proposes and applies a modification of the SIR infection model to describe the evolution of coronavirus infections and to measure the effect of quarantine on the number of people infected. Methods: Two hypotheses, not necessarily mutually exclusive, are proposed for the impact of quarantines. According to the first hypothesis, quarantine reduces the infection rate, delaying new infections over time without modifying the total number of people infected at the end of the wave. The second hypothesis establishes that quarantine reduces the population infected in the wave. The two hypotheses are tested with data for a sample of 10 districts in Santiago, Chile. Results: The results of applying the methodology show that the proposed model describes well the evolution of infections at the district level. The data shows evidence in favor of the first hypothesis, quarantine reduces the infection rate; and not in favor of the second hypothesis, that quarantine reduces the population infected. Districts of higher socio-economic levels have a lower infection rate, and quarantine is more effective. Conclusions: Quarantine, in most districts, does not reduce the total number of people infected in the wave; it only reduces the rate at which they are infected. The reduction in the infection rate avoids peaks that may collapse the health system.

scholarly journals The Development of a Concept Model of All-Weather Safe Winter Tires

2019 ◽  
pp. 3-11
Author(s):  
I.V. Balabin ◽  
O.I. Balabin ◽  
I.S. Chabunin
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Road Safety ◽  
Road Network ◽  
Winter Temperature ◽  
The Road ◽  
Concept Model ◽  
Traffic Conditions ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Russian Federation

The article presents issues related to improving safety and efficiency of operation of mobile machines in the constantly changing, winter temperature and traffic conditions. The authors develop a conceptual model of winter all-weather tires able to adapt to various road conditions such as when the road is covered with a layer of ice or compacted snow, or when the road is free from snow and ice. The use of such winter all weather tires will improve the road safety by contributing to increasing the life of tires and preserving the road network. The proposed model has no foreign analogues and is protected by a patent of the Russian Federation.

scholarly journals Studies on the impact of the technical characteristics of local roads on road safety

2019 ◽  
Vol 262 ◽  
pp. 05006
Author(s):  
Stanisław Gaca ◽  
Mariusz Kieć
Keyword(s):  
Road Safety ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Road Accidents ◽  
Safety Measures ◽  
Accident Prediction ◽  
The Road ◽  
Access Road ◽  
Local Roads ◽  
On The Road ◽  
The Impact

Local roads (district roads) constitute an important part of the road network in Poland, making up around 29.7 % (124,945 km) of all public roads. In 2017, 10,578 accidents, which is 35.7% of all accidents in Poland, took place on local roads. These roads are used primarily by regular users who are very familiar with the defects of these roads. This means that the effects of the low technical standard of local roads and the insufficient number of road traffic devices on the safety on the road can be partly compensated for by the fact that drivers adjust their behaviour to the conditions on the road. This hypothesis can be verified through developing dependency models of road safety measures of local roads’ and technical characteristics. The article presents the research carried out based on regression models of accident prediction. The models were developed with the use of the data on the road surroundings arrangement (built-up areas, access), road condition and the extent of signposting, including data on speed limits and overtaking as well as risk exposure variables. Due to the incomplete data on accidents and the small number of accidents, different approaches to the modelling of the number of road accidents were applied.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Brake’s Performance Dependence Upon Technical Condition of Car Tires as a Factor of Road Safety Management

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga Orynycz ◽  
Karol Tucki ◽  
Andrzej Wasiak ◽  
Robert Sobótka ◽  
Arkadiusz Gola
Keyword(s):  
Road Safety ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Road Transport ◽  
Technical Condition ◽  
The Road ◽  
Vehicle Inspection ◽  
Braking Process ◽  
Inspection Station ◽  
The Impact

The social cost, as one of the factors determining sustainability of socio-economic development, is strongly dependent upon a number of casualties and mortality in road accidents. The condition of car tires appears to be one of the important factors determining the occurrence of accidents. The vast majority of vehicles are tested every year at vehicle inspection stations. One of the elements affecting the result of the technical condition test and basically the quality of vehicle braking is the technical condition of the tires. Their technical condition is a very important factor responsible for the quality of acceleration, braking, maintaining, or changing the direction of driving. As a consequence, it has a significant impact on road safety. The aim of the study is to examine the impact of tires on the results of tests performed at a vehicle inspection station. The study presents the results of bench measurements of the impact of selected features of tire condition of two vehicles during routine periodic inspections at a vehicle inspection station (VIS). The focus was on an attempt to assess the impact of inflation pressure, age, and tire tread wear on the braking process. The technical studies performed might be a source for legal steps assuring better management of road safety. It can also be expected that the tire choice and condition may affect fuel consumption, and therefore the amount of energy consumed by the road transport.

AHP to Appraise the Traffic Safety of the Express Way

2011 ◽  
Vol 48-49 ◽  
pp. 157-163
Author(s):  
Dan Yu ◽  
Yi Hu Wu ◽  
Zhi Xiang Hou ◽  
Wen Jun Liu ◽  
Ji Guang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Road Safety ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Safety Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Index System ◽  
The Road ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Fuzzy Interval

The internal structure of the road safety system is extremely complex and it is affected by a lot of factors, each factor weights can not be fully established. In this article, we expressed the attribute value with a fuzzy interval number, the comprehensive appraise to the impact of traffic safety with emphasis on "people", "car" "road" in the "road". First of all, establishing evaluation index system, and form the judging matrix by AHP; then, it can be acquired a method of traffic safety evaluation by using the comprehensive evaluation model of the fuzzy interval.

scholarly journals Theory and Practice of Quantitative Assessment of System Harmonicity: Case of Road Safety in Russia before and during the COVID-19 Epidemic

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (21) ◽  
pp. 2812
Author(s):  
Artur I. Petrov ◽  
Victor I. Kolesov ◽  
Daria A. Petrova
Keyword(s):  
Road Safety ◽  
Quantitative Assessment ◽  
Road Accident ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Systems Science ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
Positive Role ◽  
The Road ◽  
General Utility ◽  
The Impact

People have had an interest in harmony issues for thousands of years; however, there is still no elaborated system of views on these questions. Ancient Greeks understood harmony as an agreement of opposites. A surge of interest in the study of the harmonic aspects of being occurred in the twentieth century due to the development of systems science, particularly regarding synergetic system effects. At the same time, there are still relatively few applications of synergetics because of the absence of an accurate methodology for the identification of system harmonicity. The aim of this research is to develop the methodology for the quantitative assessment of system harmonicity by considering a practical example: the quantitative assessment of the harmonicity of the road safety provision system (RSS) and its dynamics during the last 15 years (2006–2020). In addition, the impact of the COVID restrictions on population mobility in Russia in 2020, on the change in the harmonicity of the road safety provision system, is considered. During the research it was established that the quality factor g of the Russian road safety provision system changed from g2006 = 1.9565 to g2020 = 2.4646, which promoted the decline of the relative entropy of the Russian road safety provision system from Hn RSS 2006 = 0.8623 to Hn RSS 2020 = 0.7553. The deep reason for that change was the modification of relation between ”weights” or the significance of the contribution of different elements of the cause-and-effect chain in the formation of the factual level of the road accident rate in Russia in the last 15 years. The main conclusion of this research is that the harmonicity of the Russian road safety provision system, assessed by the normalized functional general utility GUn, has been increased, and it has already exceeded the level of harmonious reference systems GUn = 0.618. In fact, the normalized functional general utility GUnof the Russian road safety provision system increased from GUn RSS 2006 = 0.615 to GUn RSS 2020 = 0.652 (by 6.0%), from 2006 to 2020. Simultaneously, the share of the normalized used resource Xn declined, allowing a conclusion to be drawn about a significant improvement in the balance ”efficiency-quality” of the Russian road safety provision system. The COVID lockdown played a positive role in this process. Harmonicity of the Russian road safety provision system, assessed by the normalized general utility GUn RSS, increased by 0.46% from 2019 to 2020.

scholarly journals Selected Aspects of the Road Traffic Safety Management System

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. F33-F42
Author(s):  
Monika Stoma ◽  
Jacek Caban ◽  
Agnieszka Dudziak ◽  
Andrzej Kuranc
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Road Safety ◽  
Management System ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
Safety Management System ◽  
The Road ◽  
Road Traffic Safety ◽  
The Impact

The article is an attempt to present the two modern concepts of safety management systems. The first is the sunflower pyramid used especially in Europe, the second is the ISO 39001 standard (Road Safety Management System) of international scope. The idea and possibilities offered by use of both concepts of safety management, as well as an attempt to assess the impact of their actions on decrease in fatalities in selected EU countries, were presented. As a result of the conducted analyses, a downward trend was noted as to the number of certificates issued for compliance with the ISO 39001 standard in the world, which may indicate an appearance of the more adequate management systems, or other tools or concepts to improve the road safety, or inadequate education society and low level of awareness in this area of stakeholders, including politicians, scientists, producers, drivers (professional and reliable), as well as other road users, including unprotected ones.

IMPACT OF THE DYNAMICS OF FREIGHT TURNOVER BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE CIS COUNTRIES ON ROAD SAFETY

2021 ◽  
pp. 48-50
Author(s):  
Т.М. Мазурчук
Keyword(s):  
Road Safety ◽  
Scientific Work ◽  
Optimal Solutions ◽  
The Road ◽  
Cargo Delivery ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Simultaneous Decrease ◽  
Cis Countries ◽  
The Impact

В статье исследуется динамика грузооборота между Россией и торговыми партнерами из СНГ с учетом оказываемого влияния на безопасность дорожного движения. Международные автомобильные перевозки являются одним из наиболее востребованных и распространенных способов доставки различных товаров и грузов. Рассматриваются способы увеличения грузооборота и одновременного сокращения аварийности на дорогах России с участием грузового автотранспорта. The scientific work examines the dynamics of cargo turnover between Russia and trading partners from the CIS, taking into account the impact on the safety of the road. The use of vehicles is one of the most efficient and common forms of cargo delivery between countries. The aim of the work is to find the optimal solutions to increase thecargo turnover with a simultaneous decrease in the accident on the roads of Russia with the participation of the cargovehicles.

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