scholarly journals Theory and Practice of Quantitative Assessment of System Harmonicity: Case of Road Safety in Russia before and during the COVID-19 Epidemic

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (21) ◽  
pp. 2812
Author(s):  
Artur I. Petrov ◽  
Victor I. Kolesov ◽  
Daria A. Petrova
Keyword(s):  
Road Safety ◽  
Quantitative Assessment ◽  
Road Accident ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Systems Science ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
Positive Role ◽  
The Road ◽  
General Utility ◽  
The Impact

People have had an interest in harmony issues for thousands of years; however, there is still no elaborated system of views on these questions. Ancient Greeks understood harmony as an agreement of opposites. A surge of interest in the study of the harmonic aspects of being occurred in the twentieth century due to the development of systems science, particularly regarding synergetic system effects. At the same time, there are still relatively few applications of synergetics because of the absence of an accurate methodology for the identification of system harmonicity. The aim of this research is to develop the methodology for the quantitative assessment of system harmonicity by considering a practical example: the quantitative assessment of the harmonicity of the road safety provision system (RSS) and its dynamics during the last 15 years (2006–2020). In addition, the impact of the COVID restrictions on population mobility in Russia in 2020, on the change in the harmonicity of the road safety provision system, is considered. During the research it was established that the quality factor g of the Russian road safety provision system changed from g2006 = 1.9565 to g2020 = 2.4646, which promoted the decline of the relative entropy of the Russian road safety provision system from Hn RSS 2006 = 0.8623 to Hn RSS 2020 = 0.7553. The deep reason for that change was the modification of relation between ”weights” or the significance of the contribution of different elements of the cause-and-effect chain in the formation of the factual level of the road accident rate in Russia in the last 15 years. The main conclusion of this research is that the harmonicity of the Russian road safety provision system, assessed by the normalized functional general utility GUn, has been increased, and it has already exceeded the level of harmonious reference systems GUn = 0.618. In fact, the normalized functional general utility GUnof the Russian road safety provision system increased from GUn RSS 2006 = 0.615 to GUn RSS 2020 = 0.652 (by 6.0%), from 2006 to 2020. Simultaneously, the share of the normalized used resource Xn declined, allowing a conclusion to be drawn about a significant improvement in the balance ”efficiency-quality” of the Russian road safety provision system. The COVID lockdown played a positive role in this process. Harmonicity of the Russian road safety provision system, assessed by the normalized general utility GUn RSS, increased by 0.46% from 2019 to 2020.

scholarly journals A Novel Approach in Evaluating the Impact of Vehicle Age on Road Safety

2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (6) ◽  
pp. 789-796
Author(s):  
Árpád Török
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Road Safety ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽  
Road Accident ◽  
Road Segment ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the correlation between road accident casualties and the age of the vehicle, assuming that the age of vehicles and the improvements in their safety designs are related. The study evaluates the impact of the interrelationship between road segment characteristics and road accident type on vehicle age at the time of the accident (AVC). To analyse the nested relationship between these variables, a multinomial logistic regression (MML) model has been developed. The result of the analysis also duly finds that vehicle age has an emphatic role in the occurrence of accidents.

scholarly journals Case Study for Road Safety Audit of Aurangabad City

2020 ◽  
Vol 170 ◽  
pp. 06008
Author(s):  
Prashant Awsarmal ◽  
S. L. Hake ◽  
Shubham Vaidya ◽  
P. K. Bhandari ◽  
M. P. Wagh
Keyword(s):  
Road Safety ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Police Department ◽  
Road Accident ◽  
Audit Process ◽  
Severe Injuries ◽  
The Road ◽  
Road Geometry ◽  
Road Safety Audit

Efficient road network is a part-n-parcel of rapid industralization, urbanization and development of nation. While designing roads and highways, main emphasis is given on speed which will help to reduce time of journey and save fuel. But safety of drivers and passengers travelling along road is also important. In past, it was observed that while travelling, due to excess speed passengers safety was compromised. It will lead to accidents. It may cause severe injuries and loss of human life. Therefore it is important to check every aspect of vehicles as well as road during its design, construction and throughout the life of the road. Road safety audit is conducted to check performance of new road projects on grounds of offering maximum safety. Also checks are applied to study performance of existing roads to suggest repairs, rehabiliatation and maintenance work in order to improve condition of roads. During audit process, accident prone locations are identified. Past accident record from traffic department, Police department, hospitals etc are referred to understand damage that had occured. Even road geometry is investigated on technical basis. In present investigation, particular stretch of Beed Bypass Road passing through Aurangabad city in Maharashtra state, India was selected. On this road, accident sites where major accidents occurred in past were identified and investigated for different parameters. Based upon study, different causes of accidents and thereafter preventive methods were recommended during research work.

scholarly journals Macro Models of Casualties in Road Transport / Modelowanie Strat Osobowych W Transporcie Drogowym

2012 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-82
Author(s):  
Kazimierz Jamroz
Keyword(s):  
Road Safety ◽  
Road Transport ◽  
Road Accident ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Strategic Decision Making ◽  
Model Design ◽  
Safety Measures ◽  
The Road ◽  
Transport Safety ◽  
On The Road

Abstract To ensure that road transport safety measures are effective and efficient, forecast tools should be applied to help with strategic decision-making. Models of road safety measures provide such tools. The paper presents a proposed macro model of road accident casualties. The proposed models of road accident fatalities are built from a database covering more than fifty countries worldwide. The concepts of model design can be used for developing factor-based models to describe strategic societal risk on the road networks of selected countries worldwide. One of the concepts was applied to model the number of road accident fatalities. The analyses used Smeed’s model and its modifications developed for the needs of this analysis.

scholarly journals Studies on the impact of the technical characteristics of local roads on road safety

2019 ◽  
Vol 262 ◽  
pp. 05006
Author(s):  
Stanisław Gaca ◽  
Mariusz Kieć
Keyword(s):  
Road Safety ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Road Accidents ◽  
Safety Measures ◽  
Accident Prediction ◽  
The Road ◽  
Access Road ◽  
Local Roads ◽  
On The Road ◽  
The Impact

Local roads (district roads) constitute an important part of the road network in Poland, making up around 29.7 % (124,945 km) of all public roads. In 2017, 10,578 accidents, which is 35.7% of all accidents in Poland, took place on local roads. These roads are used primarily by regular users who are very familiar with the defects of these roads. This means that the effects of the low technical standard of local roads and the insufficient number of road traffic devices on the safety on the road can be partly compensated for by the fact that drivers adjust their behaviour to the conditions on the road. This hypothesis can be verified through developing dependency models of road safety measures of local roads’ and technical characteristics. The article presents the research carried out based on regression models of accident prediction. The models were developed with the use of the data on the road surroundings arrangement (built-up areas, access), road condition and the extent of signposting, including data on speed limits and overtaking as well as risk exposure variables. Due to the incomplete data on accidents and the small number of accidents, different approaches to the modelling of the number of road accidents were applied.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Brake’s Performance Dependence Upon Technical Condition of Car Tires as a Factor of Road Safety Management

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga Orynycz ◽  
Karol Tucki ◽  
Andrzej Wasiak ◽  
Robert Sobótka ◽  
Arkadiusz Gola
Keyword(s):  
Road Safety ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Road Transport ◽  
Technical Condition ◽  
The Road ◽  
Vehicle Inspection ◽  
Braking Process ◽  
Inspection Station ◽  
The Impact

The social cost, as one of the factors determining sustainability of socio-economic development, is strongly dependent upon a number of casualties and mortality in road accidents. The condition of car tires appears to be one of the important factors determining the occurrence of accidents. The vast majority of vehicles are tested every year at vehicle inspection stations. One of the elements affecting the result of the technical condition test and basically the quality of vehicle braking is the technical condition of the tires. Their technical condition is a very important factor responsible for the quality of acceleration, braking, maintaining, or changing the direction of driving. As a consequence, it has a significant impact on road safety. The aim of the study is to examine the impact of tires on the results of tests performed at a vehicle inspection station. The study presents the results of bench measurements of the impact of selected features of tire condition of two vehicles during routine periodic inspections at a vehicle inspection station (VIS). The focus was on an attempt to assess the impact of inflation pressure, age, and tire tread wear on the braking process. The technical studies performed might be a source for legal steps assuring better management of road safety. It can also be expected that the tire choice and condition may affect fuel consumption, and therefore the amount of energy consumed by the road transport.

AHP to Appraise the Traffic Safety of the Express Way

2011 ◽  
Vol 48-49 ◽  
pp. 157-163
Author(s):  
Dan Yu ◽  
Yi Hu Wu ◽  
Zhi Xiang Hou ◽  
Wen Jun Liu ◽  
Ji Guang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Road Safety ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Safety Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Index System ◽  
The Road ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Fuzzy Interval

The internal structure of the road safety system is extremely complex and it is affected by a lot of factors, each factor weights can not be fully established. In this article, we expressed the attribute value with a fuzzy interval number, the comprehensive appraise to the impact of traffic safety with emphasis on "people", "car" "road" in the "road". First of all, establishing evaluation index system, and form the judging matrix by AHP; then, it can be acquired a method of traffic safety evaluation by using the comprehensive evaluation model of the fuzzy interval.

scholarly journals Road Safety Assessment Considering the Expected Fatal Accident Density

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 31-48
Author(s):  
Vilma Jasiūnienė ◽  
Rasa Vaiškūnaitė
Keyword(s):  
Road Safety ◽  
Safety Assessment ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Road Accident ◽  
Fatal Accident ◽  
Road Infrastructure ◽  
The Road ◽  
Management Procedures ◽  
Accident Data ◽  
Wide Road

Network-wide road safety assessment throughout the whole network is one of the four road infrastructure safety management procedures regulated by Directive 2019/1936/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2019 Аmending Directive 2008/96/EC on Road Infrastructure Safety Management and one of the methods for determining the direction of investment in road safety. So far, the implementation of the procedure has been lightly regulated and adapted using various road safety indicators. The paper describes the evaluation of road accident data that is one of the criteria for conducting a network-wide road safety assessment. Taking into consideration that networkwide road safety assessment is a proactive road safety activity, the paper proposes to conduct road safety assessment considering the expected fatal accident density. Such assessment makes it possible to assess the severity of accidents, and the use of the predicted road accident data on calculating the introduced road accident rate contributing to the prevention of accidents. The paper describes both the empirical Bayes method for predicting road accidents and the application of one of the road safety indicators – the expected fatal accident density – to determine five road safety categories across the road network. The paper demonstrates the application of the proposals submitted to Lithuanian highways using road accident and traffic data for the period 2014–2018.

scholarly journals The Effects of Roadside Hazards on Road Accident Severity

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 319-339 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcin Budzyński ◽  
Kazimierz Jamroz ◽  
Łukasz Jeliński ◽  
Anna Gobis
Keyword(s):  
Road Safety ◽  
Road Accident ◽  
Road User ◽  
Road Accidents ◽  
Safety Equipment ◽  
Design Rules ◽  
The Road ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Safety Strategies ◽  
Accident Severity

Abstract The risk of becoming involved in an accident emerges when elements of the transport system do not operate properly (man – vehicle – road – roadside). The road, its traffic layout and safety equipment have a critical impact on road user safety. This gives infrastructural work a priority in road safety strategies and programmes. Run-off-road accidents continue to be one of the biggest problems of road safety with consequences including vehicle roll-over or hitting a roadside object. This type of incident represents more than 20% of rural accidents and about 18% of all road deaths in Poland. Mathematical models must be developed to determine how selected roadside factors affect road safety and provide a basis for new roadside design rules and guidelines.

scholarly journals Improper Driver Action as a Cause of Road Accidents / Niewłaściwe Działania Kierowców Jako Przyczyna Powstawania Zdarzeń Drogowych

2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-98
Author(s):  
Łukasz Muślewski
Keyword(s):  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Road Accident ◽  
Process Safety ◽  
Driving Experience ◽  
The Road ◽  
Human Driver ◽  
Proper Estimation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Road traffic is inseparably connected with road accident. This is the human-driver whose role in the transportation process safety is of key importance. Driving a motor vehicle requires from the driver not only knowledge but also physical and psychical fitness. They need to have the ability of quick reaction, proper estimation of the road situation and doing maneuvers adequate to it. In this study, an assessment of the impact of improper behaviors of drivers on occurrence of road collisions and accidents, has been analyzed on the basis of literature analysis and the authors’ own research. In effect of the carried out tests there has been made a classification of the road events with a division into: cause, place, date, and time of their occurrence as well as drivers’ age and their driving experience. The whole study has been performed on the basis of a real transportation company, operating on the territory of an urban agglomeration with the population of 500 inhabitants.

scholarly journals Intersectoral component of the structural and functional management model: a methodology for developing regional prevention programs and evaluating its effectiveness (for example, the child population of certain administrative regions of Ukraine)

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 53-62
Author(s):  
Oleksii Demikhov
Keyword(s):  
Primary Prevention ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Quantitative Assessment ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
Prevention Programs ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Modern Theory ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Child Population ◽  
The Impact

Modern ideas about comprehensive assessments of the level of health are based on synthetic (complex, integral, multidimensional) indicators, the requirement for which is the need to take into account various (by origin and methods of obtaining) health indicators both at the individual and population, regional levels. In recent years, many methodological methods have been processed to obtain a comprehensive qualitative and quantitative assessment of the state of individual health. Obtaining a generalized qualitative and quantitative assessment remains the most important methodological task of modern theory and practice of public administration and public health. The purpose of the study was to develop a methodology for substantiating intersectoral regional prevention programs and an algorithm for evaluating their effectiveness using the example of a dysplastic-dependent pathology of the bronchopulmonary system in children. In developing and justifying population-based management models for early diagnosis and primary prevention, we used systematic population modeling methods. The expected indicators of the pathogenic and sanogenic effects of the most significant regional and environmental factors of the dysplastic-dependent pathology of the bronchopulmonary system among children are determined. Substantiated models of end results for modification of risk factors and the expected effectiveness of the N-factor regional and environmental program for the primary prevention of dysplastic dependent pathology of the bronchopulmonary system in children. Priority areas for the implementation of regional-population programs for the prevention of dysplastic-dependent pathology of the bronchopulmonary system in children due to the impact on controlled environmental environmental factors are determined. An example of calculating the expected effectiveness of children's health management through interdepartmental interaction at the regional level is given. Prospects for further research on this issue related to a prospective evaluation of the effectiveness of intersectoral programs to reduce the influence of regional environmental factors on the health status of the child population, in particular, dysplastic-dependent pathology of the bronchopulmonary system.

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