scholarly journals The impact of quarantine on Covid-19 infections

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (s1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Marshall
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
Infection Rate ◽  
District Level ◽  
Infection Model ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Lower Infection ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Lower Infection Rate ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Objectives: Coronavirushas had profound effects on people’s lives and the economy of many countries, generating controversy between the need to establish quarantines and other social distancing measures to protect people’s health and the need to reactivate the economy. This study proposes and applies a modification of the SIR infection model to describe the evolution of coronavirus infections and to measure the effect of quarantine on the number of people infected. Methods: Two hypotheses, not necessarily mutually exclusive, are proposed for the impact of quarantines. According to the first hypothesis, quarantine reduces the infection rate, delaying new infections over time without modifying the total number of people infected at the end of the wave. The second hypothesis establishes that quarantine reduces the population infected in the wave. The two hypotheses are tested with data for a sample of 10 districts in Santiago, Chile. Results: The results of applying the methodology show that the proposed model describes well the evolution of infections at the district level. The data shows evidence in favor of the first hypothesis, quarantine reduces the infection rate; and not in favor of the second hypothesis, that quarantine reduces the population infected. Districts of higher socio-economic levels have a lower infection rate, and quarantine is more effective. Conclusions: Quarantine, in most districts, does not reduce the total number of people infected in the wave; it only reduces the rate at which they are infected. The reduction in the infection rate avoids peaks that may collapse the health system.

scholarly journals Mining Google and Apple mobility data: temporal anatomy for COVID-19 social distancing

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Corentin Cot ◽  
Giacomo Cacciapaglia ◽  
Francesco Sannino
Keyword(s):  
Infection Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Strong Decrease ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Actual Measure ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Political Decisions ◽  
Mobility Reduction

AbstractWe employ the Google and Apple mobility data to identify, quantify and classify different degrees of social distancing and characterise their imprint on the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and in the United States. We identify the period of enacted social distancing via Google and Apple data, independently from the political decisions. Our analysis allows us to classify different shades of social distancing measures for the first wave of the pandemic. We observe a strong decrease in the infection rate occurring two to five weeks after the onset of mobility reduction. A universal time scale emerges, after which social distancing shows its impact. We further provide an actual measure of the impact of social distancing for each region, showing that the effect amounts to a reduction by 20–40% in the infection rate in Europe and 30–70% in the US.

scholarly journals An adaptive social distancing SIR model for COVID-19 disease spreading and forecasting

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (s1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Said Gounane ◽  
Yassir Barkouch ◽  
Abdelghafour Atlas ◽  
Mostafa Bendahmane ◽  
Fahd Karami ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Theory ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Epidemic Threshold ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Sir Epidemic ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Disease Spreading ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Recently, various mathematical models have been proposed to model COVID-19 outbreak. These models are an effective tool to study the mechanisms of coronavirus spreading and to predict the future course of COVID-19 disease. They are also used to evaluate strategies to control this pandemic. Generally, SIR compartmental models are appropriate for understanding and predicting the dynamics of infectious diseases like COVID-19. The classical SIR model is initially introduced by Kermack and McKendrick (cf. (Anderson, R. M. 1991. “Discussion: the Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic Threshold Theorem.” Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 53 (1): 3–32; Kermack, W. O., and A. G. McKendrick. 1927. “A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics.” Proceedings of the Royal Society 115 (772): 700–21)) to describe the evolution of the susceptible, infected and recovered compartment. Focused on the impact of public policies designed to contain this pandemic, we develop a new nonlinear SIR epidemic problem modeling the spreading of coronavirus under the effect of a social distancing induced by the government measures to stop coronavirus spreading. To find the parameters adopted for each country (for e.g. Germany, Spain, Italy, France, Algeria and Morocco) we fit the proposed model with respect to the actual real data. We also evaluate the government measures in each country with respect to the evolution of the pandemic. Our numerical simulations can be used to provide an effective tool for predicting the spread of the disease.

scholarly journals You Can't Count on Me: The Impact of Electricity Unreliability on Productivity

2017 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 579-602
Author(s):  
Sharon Poczter
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
District Level ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Electricity Provision ◽  
Over Time

While access to reliable electricity can significantly constrain industrial production, little is known as to how unreliability impacts firm level productivity. This is a particularly salient issue for firms in developing countries, where electricity provision is still unreliable and self-generation is costly. This paper analyzes the impact of electricity provision on productivity, instrumenting for electricity demand with district level solar irradiance. Results indicate that firms exhibit decreasing productivity in the initial stages of electricity adoption that decreases over time. Furthermore, I find that unreliability negatively impacts productivity initially and over time, and this effect is larger for smaller firms.

Looking at the bigger picture: effect of performance-based contracting of district health services on equity of access to maternal health services in Zambia

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Collins Chansa ◽  
Mulenga Mary Mukanu ◽  
Chitalu Miriam Chama-Chiliba ◽  
Mpuma Kamanga ◽  
Nicholas Chikwenya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Maternal Health ◽  
Health Services ◽  
Health System ◽  
Health Expenditure ◽  
Maternal Health Services ◽  
Health Facilities ◽  
District Level ◽  
Health Service Provision ◽  
Equity Of Access ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Zambia has been using output-based approaches for over two decades to finance whole or part of the public health system. Between 1996 and 2006, performance-based contracting (PBC) was implemented countrywide with the Central Board of Health (CBoH) as the provider of health services. This study reviews the association between PBC and equity of access to maternal health services in Zambia between 1996 and 2006. A comprehensive document review was undertaken to evaluate the implementation process, followed by a trend analysis of health expenditure at district level, and a segmented regression analysis of data on antenatal care (ANC) and deliveries at health facilities that was obtained from five demographic and health survey datasets (1992, 1996, 2002, 2007 and 2014). The results show that PBC was anchored by high-level political support, an overarching policy and legal framework, and collective planning and implementation with all key stakeholders. Decentralization of health service provision was also an enabling factor. ANC coverage increased in both the lower and upper wealth quintiles during the PBC era, followed by a declining trend after the PBC era in both quintiles. Further, the percentage of women delivering at health facilities increased during the PBC era, particularly in rural areas and among the poor. The positive trend continued after the PBC era with similar patterns in both lower and upper wealth quintiles. Despite these gains, per capita health expenditure at district level declined during the PBC era, with the situation worsening after the PBC era. The study concludes that a nationwide PBC approach can contribute to improved equity of access to maternal health services and that PBC is a cost-efficient and sustainable policy reform. The study calls for policymakers to comprehensively evaluate the impact of health system reforms before terminating them.

scholarly journals How Climate Variables Influence the Spread of SARS-CoV-19 in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 9192
Author(s):  
André de Souza Melo ◽  
Ana Iza Gomes da Penha Sobral ◽  
Marcelo Luiz Monteiro Marinho ◽  
Gisleia Benini Duarte ◽  
Thiago Henrique Ferreira Gomes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Infection Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Infection Model ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Temperature Variations ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
The Impact

During the 2020 Coronavirus pandemic, several scientific types of research investigated the causes of high transmissibility and deaths caused by SARS-CoV-2. Among the spreading factors of the disease, it is known that there is an association between temperature and infected people. However, the studies that identified this phenomenon explored an association relationship, which is weaker and does not allow the identification of which variable would be the cause. This study aimed to analyze the impact of temperature variations and other climatic variables on the infection rate of COVID-19. Data were extracted from weather stations in the United States, which were segregated by county and day. Daily COVID-19 infections and deaths per county were also collected. Two models were used: the first model to analyze the temperature and the number of infected cases and the second model to evaluate the variables of temperature, precipitation, and snow in relation to COVID-19 infection. Model 1 shows that an increase in temperature at time zero caused a decrease in the number of infected cases. Meanwhile, a decrease in temperature after the temperature shock was associated with an increase in the number of cases, which tended to zero overall. A 1% increase in temperature caused a 0.002% decrease in the number of cases. The results suggested a causal relationship between the average temperature and number of CODIV-19 cases. Model 2, which includes temperature, precipitation, and snow shows that an increase in temperature resulted in a 0.00154% decrease response. There was no significant effect of increased precipitation and snow on the infection rate with COVID-19.

scholarly journals 30 years of polio campaigns in Ethiopia, India and Nigeria: the impacts of campaign design on vaccine hesitancy and health worker motivation

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (8) ◽  
pp. e006002
Author(s):  
Abigail H Neel ◽  
Svea Closser ◽  
Catherine Villanueva ◽  
Piyusha Majumdar ◽  
S D Gupta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
Health Systems ◽  
System Level ◽  
Vaccine Hesitancy ◽  
High Coverage ◽  
Frontline Staff ◽  
Polio Vaccination ◽  
Worker Motivation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

IntroductionThe debate over the impact of vertical programmes, including mass vaccination, on health systems is long-standing and often polarised. Studies have assessed the effects of a given vertical health programme on a health system separately from the goals of the vertical programme itself. Further, these health system effects are often categorised as either positive or negative. Yet health systems are in fact complex, dynamic and tightly linked. Relationships between elements of the system determine programme and system-level outcomes over time.MethodsWe constructed a causal loop diagram of the interactions between mass polio vaccination campaigns and government health systems in Ethiopia, India and Nigeria, working inductively from two qualitative datasets. The first dataset was 175 interviews conducted with policymakers, officials and frontline staff in these countries in 2011–2012. The second was 101 interviews conducted with similar groups in 2019, focusing on lessons learnt from polio eradication.ResultsPursuing high coverage in polio campaigns, without considering the dynamic impacts of campaigns on health systems, cost campaign coverage gains over time in weaker health systems with many campaigns. Over time, the systems effects of frequent campaigns, delivered through parallel structures, led to a loss of frontline worker motivation, and an increase in vaccine hesitancy in recipient populations. Co-delivery of interventions helped to mitigate these negative effects. In stronger health systems with fewer campaigns, these issues did not arise.ConclusionIt benefits vertical programmes to reduce the construction of parallel systems and pursue co-delivery of interventions where possible, and to consider the workflow of frontline staff. Ultimately, for health campaign designs to be effective, they must make sense for those delivering and receiving campaign interventions, and must take into account the complex, adaptive nature of the health systems in which they operate. 

scholarly journals Vehicle and Fleet Random Effects in a Model of Insurance Rating for Fleets of Vehicles

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (01) ◽  
pp. 25-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-François Angers ◽  
Denise Desjardins ◽  
Georges Dionne ◽  
François Guertin
Keyword(s):  
Road Safety ◽  
Parametric Model ◽  
Automobile Insurance ◽  
Vehicle Accidents ◽  
The Road ◽  
Semiparametric Approach ◽  
Safety Code ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

We are proposing a parametric model to rate insurance for vehicles belonging to a fleet. The tables of premiums presented take into account past vehicle accidents, observable characteristics of the vehicles and fleets, and violations of the road-safety code committed by drivers and carriers. The premiums are also adjusted according to accidents accumulated by the fleets over time. The proposed model accounts directly for explicit changes in the various components of the probability of accidents. It represents an extension of bonus malus-type automobile insurance models for individual premiums (Lemaire, 1985; Dionne and Vanasse, 1989 and 1992; Pinquet, 1997 and 1998; Frangos and Vrontos, 2001; Purcaru and Denuit, 2003). The extension adds a fleet effect to the vehicle effect so as to account for the impact that the unobservable characteristics or actions of carriers can have on truck accident rates. This form of rating makes it possible to visualize what impact the behaviors of owners and drivers can have on the predicted rate of accidents and, consequently, on premiums. The results are compared to those of the semiparametric approach.

scholarly journals Dietary Camellia sinensis Influences the Broilers: A Review

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. A. Khaskheli ◽  
M. I. Khaskheli ◽  
A. J. Khaskheli ◽  
A. A. Khaskheli
Keyword(s):  
Camellia Sinensis ◽  
Crude Protein ◽  
Relative Weight ◽  
Metabolizable Energy ◽  
Feed Conversion ◽  
Live Body Weight ◽  
Lower Infection ◽  
And Performance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Lower Infection Rate

This study was conducted in order to understand the impact of using dietary Camellia sinensis in broilers. In this regards several studies were explored and obtained findings were found to be much interesting and useful. In summary it has been reported by researchers that Camellia sinensis supports the feed intake (4480 g/b), water intake (8960 ml/b), live body weight (2356.8 g/b), weekly weight gain (2322.8 g/b), carcass weight (1381.8 g/b) and feed conversion ratio (1.92). Further, it was stated that Camellia sinensis reduces the relative weight of heart, liver, spleen, proventriculus, intestine and fat pad by 13.53, 61.1, 2.26, 58.13, 10.2 and 81.41%, respectively compared to their normal weights. Camellia sinensis enhances the immunity of broilers that results lower infection rate and mortality rate. Concerning digestibility it was indicated by researchers that digestibility of crude protein improves by 80.33%, ether extract by 76%, crude fiber 33.83% and metabolizable energy by 79.66%. In conclusion, Camellia sinensis has been proved an important dietary supplement for the broilers. It supports birds’ immunity, production and performance.

scholarly journals How high and long will the COVID-19 wave be? A data-driven approach to model and predict the COVID-19 epidemic and the required capacity for the German health system

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Klabunde ◽  
Clemens Giegerich
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Health System ◽  
Intensive Care Units ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Hospital Capacity ◽  
German Health ◽  
The Social ◽  
Hospital Beds ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBackground and objectiveIn March 2020 the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak has been declared as global pandemic. Most countries have implemented numerous “social distancing” measures in order to limit its transmission and control the outbreak. This study aims to describe the impact of these control measures on the spread of the disease for Italy and Germany, forecast the epidemic trend of COVID-19 in both countries and estimate the medical capacity requirements in terms of hospital beds and intensive care units (ICUs) for optimal clinical treatment of severe and critical COVID-19 patients, for the Germany health system.MethodsWe used an exponential decline function to model the trajectory of the daily growth rate of infections in Italy and Germany. A linear regression of the logarithmic growth rate functions of different stages allowed to describe the impact of the “social distancing” measures leading to a faster decline of the growth rate in both countries. We used the linear model to predict the number of diagnosed and fatal COVID-19 cases from April 10th until May 31st. For Germany we estimated the required daily number of hospital beds and intensive care units (ICU) using clinical observations on the average lengths of a hospital stay for the severe and critical COVID-19 patients.ResultsAnalyzing the data from Germany and Italy allowed us to identify changes in the trajectory of the growth rate of infection most likely resulted from the various “social distancing” measures implemented. In Italy a stronger decline in the growth rate was observed around the week of March 17th, whereas for Germany the stronger decline occurred approximately a week later (the week of March 23rd). Under the assumption that the impact of the measures will last, the total size of the outbreak can be estimated to 155,000 cases in Germany (range 140,000-180,000) and to 185,000 cases in Italy (range 175,000-200,000). For Germany the total number of deaths until May 31st is calculated to 3,850 (range 3,500-4,450). Based on the projected number of new COVID-19 cases we expect that the hospital capacity requirements for severe and critical cases in Germany will decline from the 2nd week of April onwards from 13,500 to ∼2500 hospital beds (range 1500-4300) and from 2500 to ∼500 ICU beds in early May (range 300-800).ConclusionsThe modeling effort presented here provides a valuable framework to capture the impact of the “social distancing” measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in European countries and to forecast the future trend of daily COVID-19 cases. It provides a tool for medical authorities in Germany and other countries to help inform the required hospital capacity of the health care system. Germany appears to be in the middle of the (first) COVID-19 outbreak wave and the German health system is well prepared to handle it with the available capacities.

Rigorous lower bounds for the critical infection rate in the diffusive contact process

2001 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 1074-1078 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aidan Sudbury
Keyword(s):  
Infection Rate ◽  
Lower Bounds ◽  
Particle System ◽  
Infected Individual ◽  
Contact Process ◽  
Interacting Particle ◽  
Lower Infection ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Lower Infection Rate

The contact process is an interacting particle system which models a spatially restricted infection. In the basic contact process the infection can only spread to an uninfected neighbour, but the diffusive contact process allows an infected individual to move to an uninfected site. If the infection rate is too low, the process will die out. If the individual can move (or diffuse), the disease can spread with a lower infection rate. An idea of the relationship between these rates is obtained by obtaining rigorous lower bounds for the critical infection rate for various values of the diffusion rate. In this paper we also improve the lower bound for the critical infection rate for the basic contact process from 1.539 to 1.5517.

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