A Macroeconomic Analysis of Agricultural Sector in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-25
Author(s):  
Isah Funtua Abubakar ◽  
Umar Bambale Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Value Chain ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Size Analysis ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
The Impact

This paper attempts to study the Nigerian agriculture industry as a panacea to growth as well as an anchor to the diversification agenda of the present government. To do this, the time series data of the four agriculture subsectors of crop production, livestock, forestry and fishery were analysed as stimulus to the Real GDP from 1981-2016 in order to explicate the individual contributions of the subsectors to the RGDP in order to guide the policy thrust on diversification. Using the Johansen approach to cointegration, all the variables were found to be cointegrated. With the exception of the forestry subsector, all the three subsectors were seen to have impacted on the real GDP at varying degrees during the time under review. The crop production subsector has the highest impact, however, taking size-by-size analysis, the livestock subsector could be of much importance due to its ability to retain its value chain and high investment returns particularly in poultry. Therefore, it is recommended that, the government should intensify efforts to retain the value chain in the crop production subsector, in order to harness its potentials optimally through the encouragement of the establishment of agriculture cottage industries. Secondly, the livestock subsector is found to be the most rapidly growing and commercialized subsector. Therefore, it should be the prime subsector to hinge the diversification agenda naturally. Lastly, the tourism industry which is a source through which the impact of the subsector is channeled to the GDP should be developed, in order to improve the impact of such channel to GDP with the sole objective to resuscitate the forestry subsector.

scholarly journals Impact of Government Expenditure on Agricultural Value Chain in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 192-204
Author(s):  
Eneji Mathias Agri ◽  
Agri Angela Iyaji ◽  
Felix Nanwul Diyemang ◽  
Offorma Jecinta Chioma
Keyword(s):  
Value Chain ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Percent Level ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Huge Impact ◽  
The Impact

This research examined the impact of government expenditure on agricultural value chain in Nigeria. It uses annual time series data for the period 1998-2018. Statistical Techniques, survey, simple percentages and the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) methods were adopted. The OLS result using Multiple Regression analysis revealed an insignificant positive relationship between government expenditure and Agricultural value chain, proxy by Aggregate importation of rice (AMR). Imports had a negative sign; it is a leakage on the economy. It however, showed that agricultural gross domestic product (ADP) has a positive relationship with government expenditure, at 5 percent level. The pair-wise Granger causality tests showed that government expenditure on agriculture (GEA) granger causes aggregate importation of rice (AMR), this was indicated by their respective F-statistics and probability values which stood at 0.39420(0.6815).. In conclusion, government expenditure, with supportive policies, would have huge impact on agricultural value chain in Nigeria. The agricultural sector is the engine of economic recovery, growth and development, therefore an improvement in government spending to the sector is recommended. This study contributes to the downstream linkages in the agricultural sector.

Impact of Health and Agriculture Financing on Economic Growth in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (18) ◽  
pp. 37-58
Author(s):  
Rasaki Olufemi KAREEM ◽  
◽  
Olawale LATEEF ◽  
Muideen Adejare ISIAKA ◽  
Kamilu RAHEEM ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Impact

The study focused on the impact of health and agriculture financing on economic growth in Nigeria from 1981 to 2019. The study utilized the time series data which was extracted from Central Bank of Nigeria annual statistical bulletin. Unit Root test was performed with the use of Augmented Dickey-Fuller test in order to ascertain the stationarity of all the variables and they were all found to be stationary at order 1 in the two specified models (composite and disaggregated). Error Correction Model (ECM) was used to analyze the data in order to determine the speed of adjustment from the short run to the long run equilibrium state. Casualty test was used to confirm causal relationship among the variables of interests. The study revealed that Federal Government expenditure in Health sector has a significant effect on economic growth in Nigeria. Federal Government expenditure in Agricultural sector equally had a positive effect on economic growth but surprisingly not significant. Considering the disaggregated form, Federal Government capital expenditure in both Health and Agricultural sectors have positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth while Federal Government recurrent expenditure on health has a positive and statistically insignificant effect in economic. It was also revealed that there is causal relationship among the variables. Based on the findings, the study concluded that Federal Government Expenditure in Health Sectors and Agriculture Sectors have effect on economic growth in Nigeria.

Impact of Fiscal Policy on Agricultural Output in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 1428 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adedoyin Isola LAWAL ◽  
Ernest Onyebuchi FIDELIS ◽  
Abiola Ayoopo BABAJIDE ◽  
Barnabas O. OBASAJU ◽  
Oluwatoyese OYETADE ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Agricultural Output ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of fiscal policy on agricultural output in Nigeria using the most recent official data. The metrics for fiscal policy is government capital expenditure and custom duties on fertilizer. The study used annual time series data obtained from CBN annual statistical bulletin, NCS, and FIRS which was found to be stationary at the order of I(1) and I(0). The order of unit root test led to the use of ARDL estimation method employed in the empirical analysis of this research work. The study found evidence of both short and long run relationship between the variables (VAO, GEX, IDMF, and ACGSF) using both Johansen co-integration and ARDL Bounds test. Although government expenditure (GEX) to agricultural sector was found to be statistically insignificant which recommend that government should increase agriculture capital expenditure to ensure that its contribution is significant. Consequently, custom duties on fertilizer (IDMF) was found to be negatively signed and significant indicating a negative impact on agricultural output. This demands that the policy makers should be prudent in the use of fiscal policy instrument in achieving its desired objective.

THE INDONESIAN AGRICULTURAL PERFORMANCES UNDER CHINA-ASEAN FREE TRADE AREA: GO UP OR GO DOWN? Case of Agriculture Raw Material and Food Product

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nasrudin Nasrudin ◽  
Budiyanto Budiyanto
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Economic Integration ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Food Product ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Impact

As an agricultural country, the Indonesian agricultural sector should obtain a positive impact of the regional economic integration. Since in 2004 by the Early Harvest Program (EHP) of China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), most agricultural commodities have lowered tariff, indeed some have been zero percent.Unfortunately, the performance of the agricultural sector has not shown tangible improvement. Then beforethe rates was released for all commodities, should be evaluated and re-defined policies that should be taken. This paper purposesto examine the impact of the implementation of CAFTA on the Indonesian agricultural performances. The objectives will be achieved by compare the performance preand post-CAFTA; predict the performance if CAFTA is fully implemented, by performing simulations and econometric models. By using time series data 1990-2011, agriculture can be divided into two categories; agricultural raw materials and food products. The estimation result of econometric modeling by simultaneous equations, the Indonesian agricultural sector performance after CAFTA is not better than before implementation. Predicted will decrease when the entire rates later free. Keywords: agriculture raw material; foods product; agriculture performance; economic integration

scholarly journals The Influence of Income and Currency Changes on Tourist Inflow to Norwegian Campsites: The Case of Swedish and German Visitors

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 104
Author(s):  
Leiv Opstad ◽  
Randi Hammervold ◽  
Johannes Idsø
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Income Elasticity ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Series Data ◽  
A Value ◽  
Industry Planning ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Overnight Stays

There are few published articles on the demand for campsites, despite this being an important segment of the tourism industry. The purpose of this study was to gain further understanding of this topic. Using publicly available data over a period of 20 years, income and currency elasticity were estimated for German and Swedish camping tourists by using a natural logarithmic regression model with time series data. The results showed that both income and the exchange rate influenced the number of overnight stays, but the impact was rather small. The income elasticity for Swedish visitors was significant with a value of about 0.5, while it was zero and not significant for German camping tourists. Appreciation of the euro was associated with more visitors from Germany, but the estimated exchange rate elasticity was below 1.0 (and significant). A stronger Swedish currency relative to the Norwegian currency did not appear to have an effect. However, a stronger Swedish exchange rate, measured in euros, had a positive impact on Swedish camping visitors in Norway. The reason might be that more Swedish residents spend holidays abroad, and there is complementarity among the neighboring countries. Such calculations provide useful information for tourist industry planning.

scholarly journals International Remittances and Economic Growth in Ghana: Does the Measure Of Financial Development Matter?

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Antwi ◽  
Eugene Oware Koranteng ◽  
Eugene Oware Koranteng
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Aggregate Output ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
International Remittances ◽  
The Impact

Empirical results of the effect of international remittances on economic growth of individual countries and groups of countries have yielded mixed results. This study is intended to add to the debate on the impact of international remittances on the aggregate output of individual countries, Ghana in this case. An earlier panel data study found a negative impact of remittance on real GDP and prompted further research on the topic for individual countries and groups of countries. The papers which followed and were able to correct for endogeneity in the models, found a mild positive impact of private unrequited remittances on economic growth. The impact of remittances on economic growth of a particular country depends on the proportion of remittances invested and consumed, the level of financial development and the quality of institutions in the country. This study used time series data from 1990 to 2014 on Ghana and found a positive impact of remittances on the growth rate of real GDP. Engel and Granger Cointegration test and Error Correction Models were used. Remittances were found to be pro-cyclical. Granger causality tests which corrects for the errors of cointegrated variables found causality running from financial development to remittances and from remittances to real GDP. Remittances have been found in other studies to benefit the Ghanaian economy by reducing poverty and sustaining the current account. This study shows a positive impact of remittances on aggregate output. Thus requiring policies to increase the flows and encourage their investment. Keywords: International Remittances, Economic Growth, Ghana, Financial Development.

scholarly journals The Impact of Disasters on a Heritage Tourist Destination: A Case Study of Nepal Earthquakes

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 6115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jihye Min ◽  
Birendra KC ◽  
Seungman Kim ◽  
Jaehoon Lee
Keyword(s):  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Tourist Destination ◽  
Dark Tourism ◽  
Moving Average Model ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the degree of macroeconomic recovery of the Nepal tourism industry after a natural disaster using the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA). The study investigated the case of Nepal’s earthquakes in 2015 and examined the impact of the earthquakes on tourism inflows and GDP using time series data from 1990 to 2018. The results show that the increasing trend in the number of tourists changes in the post-earthquake period. In particular, the excess in tourist demand by age and purpose of visits after the earthquake indicates natural disaster as a potential reason for a tourism demand boost, often described as dark tourism in literature. This research shows the process of a heritage tourist destination assessing macroeconomic recovery from a natural disaster and fills the gap in the literature regarding purpose-based tourism demand and a link between dark tourism and disaster recovery on a heritage tourism destination.

Technology Exports and Global Value Chain Linkages: A Comparative Sectoral Study of India

2020 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
pp. 8-28
Author(s):  
Kashika Arora ◽  
Areej Aftab Siddiqui
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Series Data ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Comparative Performance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Technology being incorporated in products, intermediate inputs and processes varies from sector to sector. Using annual time series data (1991–2017), a comparative performance of two sectors, namely, a high-tech (electronics and hardware) and low-tech (textiles and clothing), is undertaken to elaborate on the linkages between trade and technology. The empirical analysis in the form of auto regressive distributive lag (ARDL) testing approach to co-integration concludes that there is strong evidence of positive long-run relationship between extensive margin, gross fixed capital formation and revealed comparative advantage (RCA) with gross exports (GE) for the textile and clothing sector. Also, there runs a bidirectional Granger causality between RCA and GE and unidirectional Granger causality from GE to extensive and intensive margins and production value. However, there is a lack of evidence of long-run co-integration in the electronics sector. Still, a short-run positive causal relationship exists between lagged values of GE, intensive margin and production with GE. Together, the impact of these variables on the sector’s export performance varies, thus posing a challenge as well as providing a direction for the policies to reap further from this potential nexus of trade, investment and global value chains.

scholarly journals Empirical Analysis of Causal Linkage between Agricultural Output and Real GDP: Evidence from Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 69-77
Author(s):  
Ikechukwu Kelikume ◽  
Stanley Emife Nwani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Agricultural Output ◽  
Real Gdp

The agricultural sector is pivotal in poverty alleviation, job creation and food supply. In recent times the performance of the sector leaves more to be desired as its proportion in aggregate output fluctuated as output expands. This study empirically analysed the causal linkage between the agricultural sector output and economic growth in Nigeria using annualized time series data covering 1981 to 2018. Data were analysed using the Granger causality test, vector autoregression, and impulse response and variance decomposition econometric tools. The empirical results indicate that agricultural output did not perfectly interlink with economic growth. The causality test revealed that economic growth precedes agricultural sector output in a uni-directional manner, while the impulse response analysis indicated that economic growth does not respond swiftly to innovations in agriculture. The findings of our study did not corroborate the predictions of agriculture-led growth theorized by Kuznets (1968).

scholarly journals Impact of Technological Change on Growth and Agricultural Sector in Gujarat State of India: A Time-Series Data Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 144-160
Author(s):  
Shah Nawaz Ashraf ◽  
Ajay K Singh
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Technological Change ◽  
Time Trend ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gujarat State ◽  
Use Of Technology ◽  
Food Grain ◽  
The Impact

This study assessed the growth rate of commercial and food-grain crops due to technological change in Gujarat. Growth rate model was employed to examine the growth rate of area sown, production and yield of crops. Subsequently, impact of technological change, and other inputs on yield of individual crop was estimated using a Cobb-Douglas production function model. Time trend factor was used as a proxy variable to capture the impact of technological change, and other inputs (i.e., area sown, irrigated area, application of fertilizer, agricultural labors, rural literate population and annual actual rainfall) on yield of crops. Growth rate of cropped area, production and yield of cotton, sugarcane, castor, potato, rice, arhar, maize, gram and wheat crops were seemed positive in Gujarat. Yield of cotton, sugarcane, castor, rice, arhar, maize, bajra, gram, wheat, jowar ragi, potato, groundnut, sesamum, rapeseed&mustard and soyabeans crops was positively associated with time trend factors. Furthermore, the regression coefficient of time trend factor with yield of cotton, tobacco, potato, groundnut, sesamum, rapeseed & mustard, rice, arhar, maize, bajra, gram, wheat, jowar and ragi was reported positive and statistically significant. Hence, the estimates shows that yield of aforesaid crops were improved due to application of technological change in agricultural sector in Gujarat. Several practical policy suggestions are given to increase the use of technology in agricultural sector to improve the growth of major food-grain and commercial crops.

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