THE INDONESIAN AGRICULTURAL PERFORMANCES UNDER CHINA-ASEAN FREE TRADE AREA: GO UP OR GO DOWN? Case of Agriculture Raw Material and Food Product

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nasrudin Nasrudin ◽  
Budiyanto Budiyanto
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Economic Integration ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Food Product ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Impact

As an agricultural country, the Indonesian agricultural sector should obtain a positive impact of the regional economic integration. Since in 2004 by the Early Harvest Program (EHP) of China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), most agricultural commodities have lowered tariff, indeed some have been zero percent.Unfortunately, the performance of the agricultural sector has not shown tangible improvement. Then beforethe rates was released for all commodities, should be evaluated and re-defined policies that should be taken. This paper purposesto examine the impact of the implementation of CAFTA on the Indonesian agricultural performances. The objectives will be achieved by compare the performance preand post-CAFTA; predict the performance if CAFTA is fully implemented, by performing simulations and econometric models. By using time series data 1990-2011, agriculture can be divided into two categories; agricultural raw materials and food products. The estimation result of econometric modeling by simultaneous equations, the Indonesian agricultural sector performance after CAFTA is not better than before implementation. Predicted will decrease when the entire rates later free. Keywords: agriculture raw material; foods product; agriculture performance; economic integration

scholarly journals DETERMINANTS OF PRIVATE AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENT IN IRAQ FOR THE PERIOD (1990-2014)

2017 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad & Hmzah
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
The Other ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Agricultural Investment ◽  
The Impact

The agricultural sector is one of the important economic sectors which contribute to provide the food and raw materials that use into many industrial goods and create jobs. Moreover, it helps to reduce the imports of agricultural products and activate of growing the other manufacturing sectors. Even though, the agricultural is very important sector, but still weak and unworthy because the agriculture produce line is not flexible to aggregate demand; however, it needs to expansion in agricultural investment. Since the agricultural sector has characters which are quite different than other sectors which are effective on investor's decisions rely on the economic policy. The study aim to determine the impact of the GDP, interest rate, inflation, exchange rate and conception government expenditure on agricultural privet investment. The study used time series data from (1990-2014) with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) as a model .The result showed the long run relationship between privet investment and its determents. The adjustment coefficient is negative and significant at 1%, and gross domestic product is positive impact on investment, while the impact of  the other variables are negative in agricultural investment. The study recommends increasing the investment expenditure on scientific agricultural researches, especially, on the assets productivity of animals, seeds and plants; however, it has to consider the impact of some elements of fiscal and monetary policy which is needed to stimulate private agricultural investment.

A Macroeconomic Analysis of Agricultural Sector in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-25
Author(s):  
Isah Funtua Abubakar ◽  
Umar Bambale Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Value Chain ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Size Analysis ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
The Impact

This paper attempts to study the Nigerian agriculture industry as a panacea to growth as well as an anchor to the diversification agenda of the present government. To do this, the time series data of the four agriculture subsectors of crop production, livestock, forestry and fishery were analysed as stimulus to the Real GDP from 1981-2016 in order to explicate the individual contributions of the subsectors to the RGDP in order to guide the policy thrust on diversification. Using the Johansen approach to cointegration, all the variables were found to be cointegrated. With the exception of the forestry subsector, all the three subsectors were seen to have impacted on the real GDP at varying degrees during the time under review. The crop production subsector has the highest impact, however, taking size-by-size analysis, the livestock subsector could be of much importance due to its ability to retain its value chain and high investment returns particularly in poultry. Therefore, it is recommended that, the government should intensify efforts to retain the value chain in the crop production subsector, in order to harness its potentials optimally through the encouragement of the establishment of agriculture cottage industries. Secondly, the livestock subsector is found to be the most rapidly growing and commercialized subsector. Therefore, it should be the prime subsector to hinge the diversification agenda naturally. Lastly, the tourism industry which is a source through which the impact of the subsector is channeled to the GDP should be developed, in order to improve the impact of such channel to GDP with the sole objective to resuscitate the forestry subsector.

Impact of Health and Agriculture Financing on Economic Growth in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (18) ◽  
pp. 37-58
Author(s):  
Rasaki Olufemi KAREEM ◽  
◽  
Olawale LATEEF ◽  
Muideen Adejare ISIAKA ◽  
Kamilu RAHEEM ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Impact

The study focused on the impact of health and agriculture financing on economic growth in Nigeria from 1981 to 2019. The study utilized the time series data which was extracted from Central Bank of Nigeria annual statistical bulletin. Unit Root test was performed with the use of Augmented Dickey-Fuller test in order to ascertain the stationarity of all the variables and they were all found to be stationary at order 1 in the two specified models (composite and disaggregated). Error Correction Model (ECM) was used to analyze the data in order to determine the speed of adjustment from the short run to the long run equilibrium state. Casualty test was used to confirm causal relationship among the variables of interests. The study revealed that Federal Government expenditure in Health sector has a significant effect on economic growth in Nigeria. Federal Government expenditure in Agricultural sector equally had a positive effect on economic growth but surprisingly not significant. Considering the disaggregated form, Federal Government capital expenditure in both Health and Agricultural sectors have positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth while Federal Government recurrent expenditure on health has a positive and statistically insignificant effect in economic. It was also revealed that there is causal relationship among the variables. Based on the findings, the study concluded that Federal Government Expenditure in Health Sectors and Agriculture Sectors have effect on economic growth in Nigeria.

Welfare Use in Japan: Trends and Determinants

2007 ◽  
pp. 88
Author(s):  
Wataru Suzuki ◽  
Yanfei Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Longitudinal Data ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Welfare Use ◽  
The Impact

This article represents the first step in filling a large gap in knowledge concerning why Public Assistance (PA) use recently rose so fast in Japan. Specifically, we try to address this problem not only by performing a Blanchard and Quah decomposition on long-term monthly time series data (1960:04-2006:10), but also by estimating prefecturelevel longitudinal data. Two interesting findings emerge from the time series analysis. The first is that permanent shock imposes a continuously positive impact on the PA rate and is the main driving factor behind the recent increase in welfare use. The second finding is that the impact of temporary shock will last for a long time. The rate of the use of welfare is quite rigid because even if the PA rate rises due to temporary shocks, it takes about 8 or 9 years for it to regain its normal level. On the other hand, estimations of prefecture-level longitudinal data indicate that the Financial Capability Index (FCI) of the local government2 and minimum wage both impose negative effects on the PA rate. We also find that the rapid aging of Japan's population presents a permanent shock in practice, which makes it the most prominent contribution to surging welfare use.

scholarly journals The Effect of IJ-EPA to Indonesia Export: Interupted Time Series (ITS) Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 128-145
Author(s):  
Yuafanda Kholfi Hartono ◽  
Sumarto Eka Putra
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Export Market ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Indonesia Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJ-EPA) is a bilateral free-trade agreement between Indonesia and Japan that has been started from July 1st, 2008. After more than a decade of its implementation, there is a question that we need to be addressed: Does liberalization of IJ-EPA make Indonesia’s export to Japan increase? This question is important since the government gives a trade-off by giving lower tariff for certain commodities agreed in agreement to increase export. Using Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis based on time-series data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), this article found that the impact of IJ-EPA decreased for Indonesia export to Japan. Furthermore, this paper proposed some potential commodities that can increase the effectiveness of this FTA. The importance of this topic is that Indonesia will maximize the benefit in implementing of agreement that they made from the third biggest destination export of their total export value, so it will be in line with the government's goal to expand export market to solve current account deficit. In addition, the method that used in this paper can be implemented to other countries so that they can maximize the effect of Free Trade Agreement, especially for their export.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: A DYNAMIC ECONOMETRIC APPROACH

2021 ◽  
pp. 16-40
Author(s):  
Comfort Akinwolere Bukola ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
Econometric Approach ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Nigeria. The study covers the period of 1986 to 2019. Using time series data, the methodology adopted is the Vector Error Correction Mechanism to explore the impact of exchange rate volatility on the selected macroeconomic variables. The result indicated that exchange rate volatility has a significant impact on economic growth, specifically it has a positive impact on inflation, unemployment and balance of trade. On the other hand it has a negative impact on economic growth and investment. The recommendations made include; that relevant authorities should try to avoid systematic currency devaluations in order to maintain exchange rate volatility at a rate that allows adjustment of the balance of payments.

scholarly journals Effect of Economic Integration on Agricultural Export Performance in Selected West African Countries

Economies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 79
Author(s):  
Olatunji Abdul Shobande
Keyword(s):  
Economic Integration ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Strong Predictor ◽  
West African ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Agricultural Export

The paper investigates the effect of economic integration on agricultural export performance in West African economies using the gravity model of bilateral trade on the annual time series data straddling the period 1970 to 2016. The empirical evidence is based on the pooled OLS and fixed effects estimator. We find that economic integration, as measured by trade openness, is a remarkably strong predictor of export performance in the region. We also examine the effect of geographical distance measured by effective nominal exchange rates and we find it has a negative effect on agricultural export performance. The paper recommends the adoption of a common currency to help mitigate exchange rate negativity that serves as resistance to trade in the region. Likewise, proactive agricultural research, extension and market driven strategies are strongly advocated for driven competition and economic efficiency within the regional agricultural sector.

Impact of Fiscal Policy on Agricultural Output in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 1428 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adedoyin Isola LAWAL ◽  
Ernest Onyebuchi FIDELIS ◽  
Abiola Ayoopo BABAJIDE ◽  
Barnabas O. OBASAJU ◽  
Oluwatoyese OYETADE ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Agricultural Output ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of fiscal policy on agricultural output in Nigeria using the most recent official data. The metrics for fiscal policy is government capital expenditure and custom duties on fertilizer. The study used annual time series data obtained from CBN annual statistical bulletin, NCS, and FIRS which was found to be stationary at the order of I(1) and I(0). The order of unit root test led to the use of ARDL estimation method employed in the empirical analysis of this research work. The study found evidence of both short and long run relationship between the variables (VAO, GEX, IDMF, and ACGSF) using both Johansen co-integration and ARDL Bounds test. Although government expenditure (GEX) to agricultural sector was found to be statistically insignificant which recommend that government should increase agriculture capital expenditure to ensure that its contribution is significant. Consequently, custom duties on fertilizer (IDMF) was found to be negatively signed and significant indicating a negative impact on agricultural output. This demands that the policy makers should be prudent in the use of fiscal policy instrument in achieving its desired objective.

The China Factor Blunts the Cutting-Edge of the Japan-Malaysia Free Trade Agreement

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1850152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khondaker Mizanur Rahman ◽  
Rafiqul Islam Molla ◽  
Md. W. Murad
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Early Years ◽  
Sharp Edge ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Trade Growth ◽  
The Impact

Most industrialized and industrializing countries of the world were highly nervous about the spread effect of the surge of investment, industrialization and economic growth in China during early years of the 2000s. They were anxiously searching for ways and means to protect their economic interests from this effect. To describe this phenomenon eloquently the mass media used the term `China factor in world trade.' Against this backdrop the Japan-Malaysia free trade agreement (FTA) under an economic partnership agreement was signed in 2005 and implemented from 2006 with the expectation that it would be able to protect their bilateral trade from the sharp edge of the China factor and further enhance trade and investment relationships between the two countries. This study examines its effectiveness in influencing their bilateral trade growth in the face of this so called China factor. From analyses of the time series data on Malaysia's trade during 1986-2007 it is observed that the bilateral trade between Malaysia and Japan became stagnant during 2001-2005 with an average annual value of US$25.35 billion as a result of the impact of the China factor. However, during 2006-2007, the initial two years of its operation, the FTA was able to minimize the impacts of the China factor and revamp the growth of the bilateral trade at a modest rate. It is projected that their bilateral trade will grow marginally and reach to US$50.34 billion in 2010; but the growth rate will start declining from that year. This, in effect, indicates that the China factor's massive impact has blunted the sharp-edge of the Japan-Malaysia FTA's `tactical merit' for promoting bilateral trade growth. As a result, it is found to have only a modest and short lived influence on bilateral trade growth in the presence of China's increasing involvement in Malaysia's industrial growth. However, for a more reliable assessment a longer experience of FTA will be required.

scholarly journals The Impact of Remittances on Domestic Investment in Developing Countries: Fresh Evidence From the Asia-pacific Region

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Le Thanh Tung
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Pacific Region ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Asia Pacific Region ◽  
The Impact

Despite the sharply increasing remittances in developing countries (especially in the AsiaPacific region), the relationship between remittances and domestic investment in recipient countries has not been fluently evidenced. This paper aims to fill the empirical gap in the Asia-Pacific region by investigating the impact of remittances on domestic investment with a sample including nineteen developing countries based on time series data from 1980 to 2015. However, our findings contradict some evidence from other regions. The results robustly confirm that remittances have a negative impact on domestic investment in these countries. Our results also indicate that the annual GDP per capita growth, official development assistance, domestic credit, gross saving, and inflation have a positive impact on domestic investment, however, we conclude that the impact of trade openness on domestic investment has a negative sign in the study period. The paper also provides some policy suggestions with regard to remittance flows in this region.

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