scholarly journals Government expenditure and macroeconomic stability conundrum in Zimbabwe

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 10-26
Author(s):  
Harris Maduku ◽  
Brian Tavonga Mazorodze
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
The Body ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Macroeconomic Instability ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Macroeconomic Stability

The objective of this paper was to explore the effect of government expenditure growth on macroeconomic stability in Zimbabwe. Public expenditure has grown over time but as per a priori expectations, other macroeconomic variables have not been forth coming. What the country has actually experienced is prolonged macroeconomic instability. The paper contributes to the body of literature in two ways, (1) by creating a macroeconomic instability index and (2) by being the first in the Zimbabwean context to explore this conundrum. To achieve the main objective of the paper, the study used a cointegrated vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger causality with data spanning 1981 to 2019. The study did not find a statistically significant relationship between government expenditure and macroeconomic stability as argued mostly by the Keynesians. However, according to a priori expectations, the relationship turned out to be rightly negative. To buttress the Cointegrated-VECM results, granger causality tests were also conducted where no causality was found from government spending to macroeconomic stability, and vice versa (causality running from instability to government spending). This paper recommends that, Zimbabwe’s policy makers may need to consider proactive government spending or policies, since that helps the economy to successfully avoid possible risks such as macroeconomic instability. When policies are proactive rather than reactive, that helps by seizing untapped opportunities, and the economy justly avoids consequences of reactive governance.

scholarly journals Economic policy and confidence of economic agents – a causal relationship?

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 471-484
Author(s):  
Silvo Dajčman
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
The Government

AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to study whether innovations in monetary and fiscal policy are a leading indicator of future business and consumer confidence and reverse applying the panel Granger causality analysis to two periods in the history of the euro area: before and after the start of the Great Recession. The results show that Granger causality interaction between the confidence of economic agents and the stance of monetary policy (measured by the shadow rate) is stronger than between the former and the fiscal policy instruments. The European Central Bank (ECB) shadow rate innovations Granger caused business and consumer confidence in both periods, but also indicators of confidence Granger caused the shadow rate. No such feedback could be established between two fiscal policy instruments (government expenditure and revenue growth) and the indicators of confidence. Government spending and revenues Granger caused business confidence in the first subperiod, but not in the second subperiod when the causality reversed. The government revenues Granger caused consumer confidence in the first subperiod, while government expenditures in the second subperiod. Consumer confidence Granger caused government spending in the first subperiod.

scholarly journals Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Africa: A Vector Error Correction Modelling and Granger Causality Test

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 164
Author(s):  
Kagiso Molefe ◽  
Ireen Choga
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
The Relationship

Previous studies generally find mixed empirical evidence on the relationship between government spending and economic growth. This study re-examine the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in South Africa for the period of 1990 to 2015 using the Vector Error Correction Model and Granger Causality techniques. The time series data included in the model were gross domestic Product (GDP), government expenditure, national savings, government debt and consumer price index or inflation. Results obtained from the analysis showed a negative long-run relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in South Africa. Furthermore, the estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study has revealed that 49 per cent of the variation in GDP from its equilibrium level is corrected within of a year. Furthermore, the study discovered that the causality relationship run from economic growth to government expenditure. This implied that the Wagner’s law is applicable to South Africa since government expenditure is an effect rather than a cause of economic growth. The results presented in this study are similar to those in the literature and are also sustained by preceding studies.

scholarly journals Analisis kausalitas antara pengeluaran pemerintah dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Pulau Sumatera

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-34
Author(s):  
Nadine Brillianta Hanifah ◽  
Syamsurijal A Kadir ◽  
Anna Yulianita
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
The Other ◽  
West Sumatra ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Causality Model ◽  
The Relationship

This study aims to investigate the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in each province on the island of Sumatra during the period 2007-2016 using panel data. The method used is a quantitative approach by applying the Granger Causality model. The findings of this study indicate that there are no two-way relationships from the 10 provinces in Sumatra. But there is a one-way relationship between government spending and economic growth, which is found in the Province of West Sumatra and Bengkulu Province. Whereas the other 8 provinces have no one-way and two-way causality relationship

Government expenditure and economic growth in the European Union countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 372-386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gitana Dudzevičiūtė ◽  
Agnė Šimelytė ◽  
Aušra Liučvaitienė
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
European Union ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide more reliable estimates of the relationship between government spending and economic growth in the European Union (EU) during the period of 1995-2015. Design/methodology/approach The methodology consisted of several different stages. In the first stage for an assessment of dynamics of government spending and economic growth indicators over two decades, descriptive statistics analysis was employed. Correlation analysis helped to identify the relationships between government expenditures (GEs) and economic growth. In the third stage, for modeling the relationship and the estimation of causality between GE and economic growth, Granger causality testing was applied. Findings The research indicated that eight EU countries have a significant relationship between government spending and economic growth. Research limitations/implications This study has been bounded by general GE and economic growth only. The breakdowns of general GE on the basis of the activities they support have not been considered in this paper, which is the main limitation of the research. Despite the limitation, it might be maintained that the research highlights key relationships in the EU countries. Originality/value These insights might be useful for policy makers. In countries with unidirectional causality running from GE to economic growth, the government can employ expenditure as a factor for growth. The governments should ensure that resources are properly managed and efficiently allocated to accelerate economic growth in the countries with unidirectional causality from GDP to GE.

scholarly journals The Reform in Government Expenditure and the Standard of Living in Bahrain

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatema Alaali
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Standard Of Living ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Education And Health ◽  
Oil Revenues ◽  
The Relationship

The drop of oil prices since the second half of 2014 have affected the credit risk and liquidity situation in Bahrain. Therefore, Bahrain have implemented substantial economic diversification in the economic structure including manufacturing, refining, tourism, trade and finance. With the recognition of the importance of governments expenditure restructuring, Bahrain government introduced number of initiatives such as streamlining government expenditure, increasing revenues, and redirecting government subsidies towards eligible citizens. Understanding the relationship between revenues, government spending and economic growth is an essential perception in evaluating the efficiency of government’s strategy in managing its resources and the impact on the standard of living in any country. This chapter examines the relationship between total government expenditure as well as sectoral government spending (specifically education and health sectors), oil revenues and the economic growth of Bahrain using time series data over the period 1989–2015. To achieve this aim, the vector error correction model (VECM) is employed. In order to ensure the sustainability of resources and maintain economic growth, Bahrain should continue managing its expenditure, by cutting down expenses on certain sectors through privatization, and increasing spending on health and education sectors.

Government Expenditure on Infrastructure as a Driver for Economic Growth in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 20-26
Author(s):  
Amadi Kelvin Chijioke ◽  
Alolote Ibim Amadi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Inverse Effect ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
The Government

This study primary examines the effects of government infrastructural expenditure on economic development in Nigeria. Secondary data sourced from reported annual spending on selected infrastructure and annual Gross Domestic Products were statistically analyzed. The data treatments used for the secondary data were unit root and co-integration tests using Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillip–Perron model. Weighted least square was also used to test the sample of 37-year annual time series using vector error correction model. The data analysis was done with descriptive statistics. Findings from the study revealed that government spending on transport, communication, education and health infrastructure have significant effects on economic growth; spending on agriculture and natural resources infrastructure recorded a significant inverse effect on economic growth in Nigeria. An element of fiscal illusion was observed in the government spending on agriculture and natural resources indicating that government is not contributing as much as the private sector in spending on agriculture and natural resources infrastructure in Nigeria.

Dynamics of Economic Growth, Investment and Trade Openness: Evidence from Bangladesh

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 82-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Champa Bati Dutta ◽  
Mohammed Ziaul Haider ◽  
Debasish Kumar Das
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Causality Tests

This article investigates the causal relationship among foreign direct investment, domestic investment, trade openness and economic growth in Bangladesh over the period 1976–2014. Unit root tests, cointegration methods and Granger causality tests in Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework are used to investigate the relationships. The results of Granger causality test based on a stable VECM support a unidirectional causality running from foreign direct investment to growth, domestic investment to trade openness, growth to trade openness and bidirectional causality between domestic investment and growth and foreign direct investment and domestic investment. The results support the investment complementarities in Bangladesh. JEL Classification: E22, F1, O40

scholarly journals Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Africa: A Vector Error Correction Modelling and Granger Causality Test

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4(J)) ◽  
pp. 164-172
Author(s):  
Kagiso Molefe ◽  
Ireen Choga
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
The Relationship

Previous studies generally find mixed empirical evidence on the relationship between government spending and economic growth. This study re-examine the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in South Africa for the period of 1990 to 2015 using the Vector Error Correction Model and Granger Causality techniques. The time series data included in the model were gross domestic Product (GDP), government expenditure, national savings, government debt and consumer price index or inflation. Results obtained from the analysis showed a negative long-run relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in South Africa. Furthermore, the estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study has revealed that 49 per cent of the variation in GDP from its equilibrium level is corrected within of a year. Furthermore, the study discovered that the causality relationship run from economic growth to government expenditure. This implied that the Wagner’s law is applicable to South Africa since government expenditure is an effect rather than a cause of economic growth. The results presented in this study are similar to those in the literature and are also sustained by preceding studies.

scholarly journals Zakat Distribution and Growth in the Federal Territory of Malaysia

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (8) ◽  
pp. 449-456
Author(s):  
Mohammed B. Yusoff
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This research paper aims to examine the impact of zakat distribution on growth in the Federal Territory Malaysia. Specifically, an econometric study is carried out to examine the ability of zakat expenditure to affect real economic growth in the Federal Territory Malaysia by employing various econometric procedures such as the unit root tests, the cointegration tests, the vector error-correction model (VECM), and the Granger causality tests. The findings of the study suggest that zakat expenditure has a positive relationship with real GDP in the long-run. The Granger causality test indicates that zakat spending causes real economic growth with no feedback. In other words, zakat expenditure could boost GDP in the Federal Territory Malaysia both in the short-run and long-run.

scholarly journals Three essays on causality

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Χρήστος Μπούρας
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Economic Time Series ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Second Moments ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Portfolio Managers ◽  
Economic Time

Nowadays, Granger causality tests are standard tools to investigate causal relationships between financial and economic time series. Econometric advances in the field have shown that the causal relationship between two variables is not invariant to the integration and cointegration properties of the processes nor the relevant information that is available and included in the analysis. Hence, various notions of Granger non-causality are developed in the context of linear bivariate or multivariate stationary or nonstationary discrete time processes. Several of these causality concepts are reviewed in this thesis. Their extended concept is contrasted to the standard Granger causality concept. A wide range of causality tests have been used to investigate the independence between the second moments of the time series. There is currently much interest in testing causality-in-variance by policy makers, portfolio managers, and academic researchers. […]

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