scholarly journals The Effect of Riverine Nitrate Loads on Winter Concentrations in the Great Belt, Denmark

2000 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 229-244 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carsten Jürgensen ◽  
Niels Henrik Tornbjerg
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Empirical Relation ◽  
Background Level ◽  
Background Concentration ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Great Belt

This paper presents a method that models the fraction of the NOx concentrations (nitrate and nitrite) in a marine recipient resulting from riverine runoff from land. The analysis is performed on the surface waters in the Great Belt, Denmark, during winter seasons. The method is based on simulation of two independent NOx fractions: First, the “background” fraction, which results from the oceanographic mixing in the Belt Sea between Kattegat water and Baltic Sea water, and second, the nutrient load from land. The calculation of the background fraction is based on the finding that the Kattegat water has high salinity and high NOx contents whereas the Baltic Sea water has low salinity and low NOx contents. By means of an empirical relation between salinity and NOx a specific salinity measurement in the mixing zone can be related to a “background” NOx concentration. Measurements in the Great Belt show to be higher than the calculated “background” concentrations, which indicates the presence of a second NOx fraction. The second fraction is defined as the difference between the calculated background concentration and the measured NOx concentration. The hypothesis of the present paper is that this second fraction is dominated by the river runoff. Cross correlation analysis between the time series of the river NOx load and the time series of surplus concentration in the Great Belt reveals a time lag between maximum river load and maximum surplus concentration during winter seasons of approx. 1 month. An empirical transfer function has been developed in order to connect the daily NOx river loads with the surplus concentration in the Great Belt. The development of the NOx-concentration in the Great Belt due to river run off is modelled for 8 specific winter periods of 3 months (December - February) between 1988/1989 and 1995/1996. The model simulates concentrations on a weekly basis and quantifies the NOx-increase during each winter based on the river load data. The analysis indicates that the NOx concentration can be doubled during winters with high runoff, giving rise to an increase of approx. 60 μgN/1 at the end of February. In winters with minimal runoff no significant increase above the background level is found.

scholarly journals Impact of change in climate and policy from 1988 to 2007 on environmental and microbial variables at the time series station Boknis Eck, Baltic Sea

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 4529-4546 ◽  
Author(s):  
H.-G. Hoppe ◽  
H. C. Giesenhagen ◽  
R. Koppe ◽  
H.-P. Hansen ◽  
K. Gocke
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Vertical Mixing ◽  
Bacterial Biomass ◽  
Glucose Turnover ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract. Phytoplankton and bacteria are sensitive indicators of environmental change. The temporal development of these key organisms was monitored from 1988 to the end of 2007 at the time series station Boknis Eck in the western Baltic Sea. This period was characterized by the adaption of the Baltic Sea ecosystem to changes in the environmental conditions caused by the conversion of the political system in the southern and eastern border states, accompanied by the general effects of global climate change. Measured variables were chlorophyll, primary production, bacteria number, -biomass and -production, glucose turnover rate, macro-nutrients, pH, temperature and salinity. Negative trends with time were recorded for chlorophyll, bacteria number, bacterial biomass and bacterial production, nitrate, ammonia, phosphate, silicate, oxygen and salinity while temperature, pH, and the ratio between bacteria numbers and chlorophyll increased. Strongest reductions with time occurred for the annual maximum values, e.g. for chlorophyll during the spring bloom or for nitrate during winter, while the annual minimum values remained more stable. In deep water above sediment the negative trends of oxygen, nitrate, phosphate and bacterial variables as well as the positive trend of temperature were similar to those in the surface while the trends of salinity, ammonia and silicate were opposite to those in the surface. Decreasing oxygen, even in the surface layer, was of particular interest because it suggested enhanced recycling of nutrients from the deep hypoxic zones to the surface by vertical mixing. The long-term seasonal patterns of all variables correlated positively with temperature, except chlorophyll and salinity. Salinity correlated negatively with all bacterial variables (as well as precipitation) and positively with chlorophyll. Surprisingly, bacterial variables did not correlate with chlorophyll, which may be inherent with the time lag between the peaks of phytoplankton and bacteria during spring. Compared to the 20-yr averages of the environmental and microbial variables, the strongest negative deviations of corresponding annual averages were measured about ten years after political change for nitrate and bacterial secondary production (~ −60%), followed by chlorophyll (−50%) and bacterial biomass (−40%). Considering the circulation of surface currents in the Baltic Sea we interpret the observed patterns of the microbial variables at the Boknis Eck time series station as a consequence of the improved management of water resources after 1989 and – to a minor extent – the trends of the climate variables salinity and temperature.

scholarly journals Impact of change in climate and policy from 1988 to 2007 on environmental and microbial variables at the time series station Boknis Eck, Baltic Sea

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 18655-18706 ◽  
Author(s):  
H.-G. Hoppe ◽  
H. C. Giesenhagen ◽  
R. Koppe ◽  
H.-P. Hansen ◽  
K. Gocke
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Vertical Mixing ◽  
Bacterial Biomass ◽  
Glucose Turnover ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract. Phytoplankton and bacteria are sensitive indicators of environmental change. The temporal development of these key organisms was monitored from 1988 to the end of 2007 at the time series station Boknis Eck in the Western Baltic Sea. This period was characterized by the adaption of the Baltic Sea ecosystem to changes in the environmental conditions caused by the collapse and conversion of the political system in the Southern and Eastern Border States, accompanied by the general effects of global climate change. Measured variables were chlorophyll, primary production, bacteria number, -biomass and -production, glucose turnover rate, macro-nutrients, pH, temperature and salinity. Negative trends with time were recorded for chlorophyll, the bacterial variables, nitrate, ammonia, phosphate, silicate, oxygen and salinity while temperature, pH, and the ratio between bacteria numbers and chlorophyll increased. The strongest reductions with time occurred for the annual maximum values, e.g. for chlorophyll during the spring bloom or for nitrate during winter, while the annual minimum values remained more stable. In deep water above sediment the negative trends of oxygen, nitrate, phosphate and bacterial variables as well as the positive trend of temperature were similar to those in the surface while the trends of salinity, ammonia and silicate were opposite to those in the surface. Decreasing oxygen even in the surface layer was of particular interest because it suggested enhanced recycling of nutrients from the deep hypoxic zones to the surface by vertical mixing. In the long run all variables correlated positively with temperature, except chlorophyll and salinity. Salinity correlated negatively with all bacterial variables as well as precipitation and positively with chlorophyll. Surprisingly, bacterial variables did not correlate with chlorophyll which may be inherent with the time lag between the peaks of phytoplankton and bacteria during spring. Compared to the 20-yr averages of the environmental and microbial variables, the strongest negative deviations of corresponding annual averages were measured about ten years after political change for nitrate and bacterial secondary production (~ −60%), followed by chlorophyll (−50%) and bacterial biomass (−40%). Considering the circulation of surface currents in the Baltic Sea we conclude that the improved management of water resources after 1989 together with the trends of the climate variables salinity and temperature were responsible for the observed patterns of the microbial variables at the Boknis Eck time series station.

scholarly journals Assessment of long-range cross-correlations in cardiorespiratory and cardiovascular interactions

2021 ◽  
Vol 379 (2212) ◽  
Author(s):  
Akio Nakata ◽  
Miki Kaneko ◽  
Chinami Taki ◽  
Naoko Evans ◽  
Taiki Shigematsu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Higher Order ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
Cross Correlations ◽  
Different Order

We propose higher-order detrending moving-average cross-correlation analysis (DMCA) to assess the long-range cross-correlations in cardiorespiratory and cardiovascular interactions. Although the original (zeroth-order) DMCA employs a simple moving-average detrending filter to remove non-stationary trends embedded in the observed time series, our approach incorporates a Savitzky–Golay filter as a higher-order detrending method. Because the non-stationary trends can adversely affect the long-range correlation assessment, the higher-order detrending serves to improve accuracy. To achieve a more reliable characterization of the long-range cross-correlations, we demonstrate the importance of the following steps: correcting the time scale, confirming the consistency of different order DMCAs, and estimating the time lag between time series. We applied this methodological framework to cardiorespiratory and cardiovascular time series analysis. In the cardiorespiratory interaction, respiratory and heart rate variability (HRV) showed long-range auto-correlations; however, no factor was shared between them. In the cardiovascular interaction, beat-to-beat systolic blood pressure and HRV showed long-range auto-correlations and shared a common long-range, cross-correlated factor. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advanced computation in cardiovascular physiology: new challenges and opportunities’.

scholarly journals Swell hindcast statistics for the Baltic Sea

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan-Victor Björkqvist ◽  
Siim Pärt ◽  
Victor Alari ◽  
Sander Rikka ◽  
Elisa Lindgren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
Local Wind ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Weather System ◽  
Open Sea ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract. Swell dominates the global sea state and therefore significantly contributes to processes at the air and seabed interfaces. Nonetheless, smaller enclosed seas are detached from the global swell climate. We present swell statistics for the Baltic Sea using 20 years of swell partitioned model data. The swell significant wave height was mostly under 2 m, and in the winter (DJF) the mean significant swell height was typically less than 0.4 m; higher swell was found at limited nearshore areas. Swell waves were typically short (under 5 s), with mean periods over 8 s being rare. In open-sea areas the average ratio of swell energy (to total energy) was below 0.4 – significantly less than in World Ocean. Certain coastal areas were swell dominated over half the times, mostly because of weak winds (U < 5 ms−1) rather than high swell heights. Swell dominated events with a swell height over 1 m typically lasted under 10 h. A cross-correlation analysis indicates that swell in the open sea is mostly generated from local wind-sea when wind decays (dominant time lag roughly 15 h). Near the coast, however, the results suggests that the swell is partially detached from the local wind-waves, although not necessarily from the weather system that generates them.

scholarly journals Swell hindcast statistics for the Baltic Sea

Ocean Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 1815-1829
Author(s):  
Jan-Victor Björkqvist ◽  
Siim Pärt ◽  
Victor Alari ◽  
Sander Rikka ◽  
Elisa Lindgren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Local Wind ◽  
Pressure System ◽  
Weather System ◽  
Open Sea ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis

Abstract. The classic characterisation of swell as regular, almost monochromatic, wave trains does not necessarily accurately describe swell in water bodies shielded from the oceanic wave climate. In such enclosed areas the locally generated swell waves still contribute to processes at the air and seabed interfaces, and their presence can be quantified by partitioning wave components based on their speed relative to the wind. We present swell statistics for the semi-enclosed Baltic Sea using 20 years of swell-partitioned model data. The swell significant wave height was mostly under 2 m, and in the winter (DJF) the mean significant swell height was typically less than 0.4 m; higher swell was found in limited nearshore areas. Swell waves were typically short (under 5 s), with mean periods over 8 s being rare. In open-sea areas the average ratio of swell energy (to total energy) was mostly below 0.4 – significantly less than in the World Ocean. Certain coastal areas were swell dominated over half the time, mostly because of weak winds (U<5 m s−1) rather than high swell heights. Swell-dominated events with a swell height over 1 m typically lasted under 10 h. A cross-correlation analysis indicates that swell in the open sea is mostly generated from local wind sea when wind decays (dominant time lag roughly 15 h). Near the coast, however, the results suggest that the swell is partially detached from the local wind waves, although not necessarily from the weather system that generates them because the highest swell typically arrives with a roughly 10 h delay after the low-pressure system has already passed.

GROUNDWATER TIME SERIES

1970 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 181-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
ERIK ERIKSSON
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Physical Point ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Fort Collins ◽  
Statistical Sense ◽  
Full Benefit ◽  
Future Work ◽  
Prediction Problems

The term “stochastic hydrology” implies a statistical approach to hydrologic problems as opposed to classic hydrology which can be considered deterministic in its approach. During the International Hydrology Symposium, held 6-8 September 1967 at Fort Collins, a number of hydrology papers were presented consisting to a large extent of studies on long records of hydrological elements such as river run-off, these being treated as time series in the statistical sense. This approach is, no doubt, of importance for future work especially in relation to prediction problems, and there seems to be no fundamental difficulty for introducing the stochastic concepts into various hydrologic models. There is, however, some developmental work required – not to speak of educational in respect to hydrologists – before the full benefit of the technique is obtained. The present paper is to some extent an exercise in the statistical study of hydrological time series – far from complete – and to some extent an effort to interpret certain features of such time series from a physical point of view. The material used is 30 years of groundwater level observations in an esker south of Uppsala, the observations being discussed recently by Hallgren & Sands-borg (1968).

scholarly journals The correlation between three teleconnections and leptospirosis incidence in the Kandy District, Sri Lanka, 2004–2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
N. D. B. Ehelepola ◽  
Kusalika Ariyaratne ◽  
A. M. S. M. C. M. Aththanayake ◽  
Kamalanath Samarakoon ◽  
H. M. Arjuna Thilakarathna
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Wavelet Analysis ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Enso Modoki ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Teleconnection Indices ◽  
Weather Parameters ◽  
Time Lagged

Abstract Background Leptospirosis is a bacterial zoonosis. Leptospirosis incidence (LI) in Sri Lanka is high. Infected animals excrete leptospires into the environment via their urine. Survival of leptospires in the environment until they enter into a person and several other factors that influence leptospirosis transmission are dependent upon local weather. Past studies show that rainfall and other weather parameters are correlated with the LI in the Kandy district, Sri Lanka. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), ENSO Modoki, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are teleconnections known to be modulating rainfall in Sri Lanka. There is a severe dearth of published studies on the correlations between indices of these teleconnections and LI. Methods We acquired the counts of leptospirosis cases notified and midyear estimated population data of the Kandy district from 2004 to 2019, respectively, from weekly epidemiology reports of the Ministry of Health and Department of Census and Statistics of Sri Lanka. We estimated weekly and monthly LI of Kandy. We obtained weekly and monthly teleconnection indices data for the same period from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the USA and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC). We performed wavelet time series analysis to determine correlations with lag periods between teleconnection indices and LI time series. Then, we did time-lagged detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) to verify wavelet analysis results and to find the magnitudes of the correlations detected. Results Wavelet analysis displayed indices of ENSO, IOD, and ENSO Modoki were correlated with the LI of Kandy with 1.9–11.5-month lags. Indices of ENSO showed two correlation patterns with Kandy LI. Time-lagged DCCA results show all indices of the three teleconnections studied were significantly correlated with the LI of Kandy with 2–5-month lag periods. Conclusions Results of the two analysis methods generally agree indicating that ENSO and IOD modulate LI in Kandy by modulating local rainfall and probably other weather parameters. We recommend further studies about the ENSO Modoki and LI correlation in Sri Lanka. Monitoring for extreme teleconnection events and enhancing preventive measures during lag periods can blunt LI peaks that may follow.

scholarly journals DNA Markers Reveal Genetic Associations among 11,000-Year-Old Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) Found in the Baltic Sea with the Present-Day Gene Pools in Lithuania

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 317
Author(s):  
Darius Danusevičius ◽  
Jurata Buchovska ◽  
Vladas Žulkus ◽  
Linas Daugnora ◽  
Algirdas Girininkas
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Scots Pine ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Pcr Amplification ◽  
Balkan Peninsula ◽  
Gene Pools ◽  
Genetic Associations ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Assignment Probability ◽  
The Baltic

We aimed to extract DNA and amplify PCR fragments at the mitochondrial DNA Nad7.1 locus and 11 nuclear microsatellite loci in nine circa 11,000-year-old individuals of Scots pine found at the bottom of the Baltic sea and test the genetic associations with the present-day gene pool of Scots pine in Lithuania. We followed a strict anticontamination protocol in the lab and, simultaneously with the aDNA specimens, tested DNA-free controls. The DNA was extracted by an ATMAB protocol from the ancient wood specimens sampled underwater from Scots pine stumps located circa 20–30 m deep and circa 12 km ashore in western Lithuania. As the references, we used 30 present-day Lithuanian populations of Scots pine with 25–50 individuals each. The aDNA yield was 11–41 ng/μL. The PCR amplification for the mtDNA Nad7.1 locus and the nDNA loci yielded reliable aDNA fragments for three and seven out of nine ancient pines, respectively. The electrophoresis profiles of all the PCR tested DNA-free controls contained the sizing standard only, indicating low likelihood for contamination. At the mtDNA Nad7.1 locus, all three ancient Scots pine individuals had the type A (300 bp) allele, indicating postglacial migration from the refugia in Balkan peninsula. The GENECLASS Bayesian assignment tests revealed relatively stringer and consistent genetic associations between the ancient Scots pine trees and the present-day southern Lithuanian populations (assignment probability 0.37–0.55) and several wetlands in Lithuania. Our study shows that salty sea water efficiently preserves ancient DNA in wood at the quality levels suitable for genetic testing of trees dated back as far as 11,000 years before present.

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