scholarly journals Swell hindcast statistics for the Baltic Sea

Ocean Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 1815-1829
Author(s):  
Jan-Victor Björkqvist ◽  
Siim Pärt ◽  
Victor Alari ◽  
Sander Rikka ◽  
Elisa Lindgren ◽  
...  

Abstract. The classic characterisation of swell as regular, almost monochromatic, wave trains does not necessarily accurately describe swell in water bodies shielded from the oceanic wave climate. In such enclosed areas the locally generated swell waves still contribute to processes at the air and seabed interfaces, and their presence can be quantified by partitioning wave components based on their speed relative to the wind. We present swell statistics for the semi-enclosed Baltic Sea using 20 years of swell-partitioned model data. The swell significant wave height was mostly under 2 m, and in the winter (DJF) the mean significant swell height was typically less than 0.4 m; higher swell was found in limited nearshore areas. Swell waves were typically short (under 5 s), with mean periods over 8 s being rare. In open-sea areas the average ratio of swell energy (to total energy) was mostly below 0.4 – significantly less than in the World Ocean. Certain coastal areas were swell dominated over half the time, mostly because of weak winds (U<5 m s−1) rather than high swell heights. Swell-dominated events with a swell height over 1 m typically lasted under 10 h. A cross-correlation analysis indicates that swell in the open sea is mostly generated from local wind sea when wind decays (dominant time lag roughly 15 h). Near the coast, however, the results suggest that the swell is partially detached from the local wind waves, although not necessarily from the weather system that generates them because the highest swell typically arrives with a roughly 10 h delay after the low-pressure system has already passed.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan-Victor Björkqvist ◽  
Siim Pärt ◽  
Victor Alari ◽  
Sander Rikka ◽  
Elisa Lindgren ◽  
...  

Abstract. Swell dominates the global sea state and therefore significantly contributes to processes at the air and seabed interfaces. Nonetheless, smaller enclosed seas are detached from the global swell climate. We present swell statistics for the Baltic Sea using 20 years of swell partitioned model data. The swell significant wave height was mostly under 2 m, and in the winter (DJF) the mean significant swell height was typically less than 0.4 m; higher swell was found at limited nearshore areas. Swell waves were typically short (under 5 s), with mean periods over 8 s being rare. In open-sea areas the average ratio of swell energy (to total energy) was below 0.4 – significantly less than in World Ocean. Certain coastal areas were swell dominated over half the times, mostly because of weak winds (U < 5 ms−1) rather than high swell heights. Swell dominated events with a swell height over 1 m typically lasted under 10 h. A cross-correlation analysis indicates that swell in the open sea is mostly generated from local wind-sea when wind decays (dominant time lag roughly 15 h). Near the coast, however, the results suggests that the swell is partially detached from the local wind-waves, although not necessarily from the weather system that generates them.


Author(s):  
Ralf Weisse ◽  
Birgit Hünicke

A multitude of geophysical processes contribute to and determine variations and changes in the height of the Baltic Sea water surface. These processes act on a broad range of characteristic spatial and timescales ranging from a few seconds to millennia. On very long timescales, the northern parts of the Baltic are uplifting due to the still ongoing visco-elastic response of the Earth to the last deglaciation, and mean sea level is decreasing in these regions. Over centuries, the Baltic Sea responds to changes in global and North Atlantic mean sea level. Processes affecting global mean sea level, such as warming of the world ocean or melting of glaciers and of polar ice sheets, do have an imprint on Baltic Sea levels. Over decades, variations and changes in atmospheric circulation affect transport through the Danish Straits connecting the Baltic and North seas. As a result, the amount of water in the Baltic Sea and the height of the sea level vary. Similarly, atmospheric variability on shorter timescales down to a few days cause shorter period variations of transport through the Danish Straits and Baltic Sea level. On even shorter timescales, the Danish Straits act as a low pass filter, and high frequency variations of the water surface within the Baltic Sea such as storm surges, wind waves, or seiches are solely caused internally. All such processes have undergone considerable variations and changes in the past. Similarly, they are expected to show variations and changes in the future and across a broad range of scales, leaving their imprint on observed and potential future Baltic Sea level and its variability.


2000 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 229-244 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carsten Jürgensen ◽  
Niels Henrik Tornbjerg

This paper presents a method that models the fraction of the NOx concentrations (nitrate and nitrite) in a marine recipient resulting from riverine runoff from land. The analysis is performed on the surface waters in the Great Belt, Denmark, during winter seasons. The method is based on simulation of two independent NOx fractions: First, the “background” fraction, which results from the oceanographic mixing in the Belt Sea between Kattegat water and Baltic Sea water, and second, the nutrient load from land. The calculation of the background fraction is based on the finding that the Kattegat water has high salinity and high NOx contents whereas the Baltic Sea water has low salinity and low NOx contents. By means of an empirical relation between salinity and NOx a specific salinity measurement in the mixing zone can be related to a “background” NOx concentration. Measurements in the Great Belt show to be higher than the calculated “background” concentrations, which indicates the presence of a second NOx fraction. The second fraction is defined as the difference between the calculated background concentration and the measured NOx concentration. The hypothesis of the present paper is that this second fraction is dominated by the river runoff. Cross correlation analysis between the time series of the river NOx load and the time series of surplus concentration in the Great Belt reveals a time lag between maximum river load and maximum surplus concentration during winter seasons of approx. 1 month. An empirical transfer function has been developed in order to connect the daily NOx river loads with the surplus concentration in the Great Belt. The development of the NOx-concentration in the Great Belt due to river run off is modelled for 8 specific winter periods of 3 months (December - February) between 1988/1989 and 1995/1996. The model simulates concentrations on a weekly basis and quantifies the NOx-increase during each winter based on the river load data. The analysis indicates that the NOx concentration can be doubled during winters with high runoff, giving rise to an increase of approx. 60 μgN/1 at the end of February. In winters with minimal runoff no significant increase above the background level is found.


Author(s):  
Leonid J. Lopatoukhin ◽  
Alexander V. Boukhanovsky

Main statistical characteristics of wave climate are considered in respect of offshore and ship design. Sophistication of ships and marine platforms and expansion of offshore activities to non-investigated regions means increasing of probability of being damaged by high waves. Hindcasting of wave fields, using the hydrodynamic models is main approach to wave climate investigation. Offshore wave measurements are used, mainly, for model verification. In compliance with existent regulatory documents and accepted practice applied statistical characteristics of wind waves are prescribed to operational and extreme. Operational statistics describe wind and wave conditions for the life span of a ship or an offshore structure. Extreme characteristics determine the so-called “structure survival regime”. There are a lot of approaches to calculations of extreme wave heights at a point (classical unconditional extremes). Their comparison shows the advantages and disadvantages of each of them. Freak (rogue) waves have some principal difference from extreme wave, mainly due to their form and asymmetry. In this sense freak wave is a multidimensional extreme. Contaminated distribution may be used for probability density approximation of joint extreme and freak wave. The example of recent freak wave event is the loss of ship “Aurelia” (Class of Russian Register of shipping) in February 2005 in the North Pacific. “Aurelia” sunk during passing of atmospheric front with veering wind, changing wind waves. Any wave has at least three dimensions: height, length, and crest length. The last parameter in mean is 3 times greater than wave length. Any information about three dimensional waves is of interest, as such measurements are unique. Some results of unique stereo wave measurements in the South Pacific where the wave as high as 24.9m was fixed (probably still almost the highest measured in the World Ocean), is presented and discussed.


1991 ◽  
Vol 24 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 373-383 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Grimvall ◽  
H. Borén ◽  
S. Jonsson ◽  
S. Karlsson ◽  
R. Sävenhed

The long-term fate of chlorophenols and adsorbable organic halogens (AOX) was studied in two large recipients of bleach-plant effluents: Lake Vättern in Sweden and the Baltic Sea. The study showed that there is a long-distance transport (&gt;100 km) of chloroguaiacols from bleach-plants to remote parts of receiving waters. However, there was no evidence of several-year-long accumulation of chloro-organics in the water-phase. A simple water-exchange model for Lake Vättern showed that the cumulated bleach-plant discharges from the past 35 years would have increased the AOX concentration in the lake by more than 100 µg Cl/l, if no AOX had been removed from the water by evaporation, sedimentation or degradation. However, the observed AOX concentration in Lake Vättern averaged only about 15 µg Cl/l, which was less than the average AOX concentration (32 µg Cl/l) in the “unpolluted” tributaries of the lake. Similar investigations in the Baltic Sea showed that non-point sources, including natural halogenation processes, accounted for a substantial fraction of the AOX in the open sea. The presence of 2,4,6-trichlorophenol in precipitation and “unpolluted” surface waters showed that non-point sources may also make a considerable contribution to the background levels of compounds normally regarded as indicators of bleach-plant effluents.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Tiranti ◽  
Graziella Devoli ◽  
Roberto Cremonini ◽  
Monica Sund ◽  
Søren Boje

Abstract. A few countries in the world operate systematically national and regional forecasting services for rainfall-induced landslides (i.e. shallow landslides, debris flows and debris avalanches), among them: Norway and Italy. In Norway, the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) operates a landslide forecasting service at national level. A daily national hazard assessment is performed, describing both expected awareness level and type of landslide hazard for a selected warning region. In Italy, each administrative region has its own regional environmental agency (Regional Agency for Environmental Protection, ARPA) that is responsible of the daily landslide hazard assessments and emission of landslide warnings for one or more catchments within the region. One of these agencies, the ARPA Piemonte, is responsible for issuing landslide warnings for the Piemonte region, located in Northwestern Italy. Both services provide regular landslide hazard assessments founded on a combination of quantitative thresholds and daily rainfall forecasts together with qualitative expert analysis. Daily warning reports are published at http://www.arpa.piemonte.gov.it/rischinaturali and www.varsom.no. On spring 2013, the ARPA Piemonte, and the NVE issued warnings for hydro-meteorological hazards due to the arrival of a deep and large low-pressure system, called herein Vb cyclone. This kind of weather system is known to produce the largest floods in Europe. Less known is that the weather type can trigger landslides as well. In this study, we present the experiences acquired in late spring 2013 by NVE and ARPA Piemonte. From 27th April to 19nd May 2013, more than 400 mm rain in Piemonte caused severe floods and diffused landslides. In Norway, the same weather type lasted from 15th May to 2nd June 2013 and brought warm winds with high temperatures that caused intense snow melt over a large area, and brought a lot of rain in the Southeastern Norway, initiating large flood along Glomma river and several landslides. Floods and landslides produced significant damages to roads and railways along with buildings and other infrastructure in both countries.


Author(s):  
Eliab R. Beserra ◽  
Andre´ L. T. Mendes ◽  
Segen F. Estefen ◽  
Carlos E. Parente

A variety of ocean wave energy conversion devices have been proposed worldwide considering different technology and energy extraction methods. In order to support full-scale prototype design and performance assessments of a conversion scheme to be deployed on the northern coast of Brazil, a long-term wave climate analysis is under development. A 5-year pitch-roll buoy data series has been investigated through an adaptive technique to enhance spatial resolution and allow for accurate wave directionality evaluation. Device design most influential variables such as extreme significant wave height, peak period and directionality were considered. Temporal variability in wave energy levels was particularly investigated for energy resource assessment. The major findings of this work include the narrow directional amplitude of the incident wave and higher significant wave heights of locally generated waves. The estimated energy resource levels agreed well with literature, also showing little annual fluctuation. The wave climate demonstrated to be in full agreement with the large-scale Equatorial Atlantic atmospheric variability, dominated by either local wind waves or by distant storm swells.


BIBECHANA ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-116
Author(s):  
Babu Ram Tiwari ◽  
Jiyao Xu ◽  
Binod Adhikari ◽  
Narayan Prasad Chapagain

This study has been performed to understand the relationship between sunspot numbers (SSN) with climatology related parameters like temperature and rainfall from 1901 to 2016. The spectral characteristics of sunspot numbers, temperature and rainfall have been observed using continuous wavelet transform. Cross-correlation analyses were also performed to find any relation among temperature, rainfall, and sunspot numbers. The 9–11 year periodicity of sunspot numbers confirmed by wavelet transform in annual scale. The periodicity of high-frequency signals is identified between 4 to 11 years whereas the low frequencies signal is found throughout the periods of observation for temperature. Similarly, it is clear that there is more concentration of power between 8–16 years for rainfall. Cross-correlation analysis shows that the sunspot numbers is highly correlated with rainfall and temperature (correlation coefficient ~ 0.8054). The time lag relationship resulted in the almost simultaneous linear relationship between the temperature, rainfall, and the SSN tendency. The development of convective motions over the subtropics might be affected by the time rate of change of SSN combined with the surface temperature changes of diverse time scales. The convective motions were mostly controlled by the available amount of water vapor and the stability of the atmosphere that had a strong connection with the heat capacity of the concerned region. To produce more authentic findings for policy implications, further comprehensive and appropriate research can be undertaken and implemented in this very important field. BIBECHANA 18 (2) (2021) 105-115


Author(s):  
Michael B. McElroy

The risk of disruptive climate change is real and immediate. A low- pressure system forming in the tropics develops into a Category hurricane, 1 making its way slowly up the east coast of the United States. Normally a storm such as this would be expected to make a right- hand turn and move off across the Atlantic. Conditions, however, are not normal. This storm is about to encounter an intense low- pressure weather system associated with an unusual configuration of the jet stream, linked potentially to an abnormally warm condition in the Arctic. Forecasts suggest that rather than turning right, the storm is going to turn left and intensify as it moves over unseasonably warm water off the New Jersey coast. It develops into what some would describe as the storm of the century. New York and New Jersey feel the brunt of the damage. The impact extends as far north as Maine and as far south as North Carolina. Lower Manhattan is engulfed by a 14- foot storm surge, flooding the subway, plunging the city south of 39th Street into darkness. Residents of Staten Island fear for their lives as their homes are flooded, as they lose power, and as their community is effectively isolated from the rest of the world. As many as 23 people are drowned as floodwaters engulf much of the borough. Beach communities of New Jersey are devastated. As much as a week after the storm has passed, more than a million homes and businesses in New York and New Jersey are still without power. Estimates of damage range as high as $60 billion. This is the story of the devastation brought about by Hurricane Sandy in late October of 2012.The encounter with Sandy prompted a number of queries concerning a possible link to human- induced global climate change. Andrew Cuomo, governor of New York, commented: “Part of the learning from this is the recognition that climate change is a reality, extreme weather is a reality.”


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