scholarly journals Evaluating wider benefits of natural flood management strategies: an ecosystem-based adaptation perspective

2014 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 774-787 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oana Iacob ◽  
John S. Rowan ◽  
Iain Brown ◽  
Chris Ellis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Natural Systems ◽  
Land Drainage ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Restoration Strategies

Climate change is projected to alter river flows and the magnitude/frequency characteristics of floods and droughts. Ecosystem-based adaptation highlights the interdependence of human and natural systems, and the potential to buffer the impacts of climate change by maintaining functioning ecosystems that continue to provide multiple societal benefits. Natural flood management (NFM), emphasising the restoration of innate hydrological pathways, provides important regulating services in relation to both runoff rates and water quality and is heralded as a potentially important climate change adaptation strategy. This paper draws together 25 NFM schemes, providing a meta-analysis of hydrological performance along with a wider consideration of their net (dis) benefits. Increasing woodland coverage, whilst positively linked to peak flow reduction (more pronounced for low magnitude events), biodiversity and carbon storage, can adversely impact other provisioning service – especially food production. Similarly, reversing historical land drainage operations appears to have mixed impacts on flood alleviation, carbon sequestration and water quality depending on landscape setting and local catchment characteristics. Wetlands and floodplain restoration strategies typically have fewer disbenefits and provide improvements for regulating and supporting services. It is concluded that future NFM proposals should be framed as ecosystem-based assessments, with trade-offs considered on a case-by-case basis.

Synergies and trade-offs for the SDGs in a deltaic socio-ecological system: Development of an Integrated Assessment Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charlotte Marcinko ◽  
Andrew Harfoot ◽  
Tim Daw ◽  
Derek Clarke ◽  
Sugata Hazra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Ecological System ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Natural Systems ◽  
Trade Offs

<p>The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) promote sustainable development and aim to address multiple challenges including those related to poverty, hunger, inequality, climate change and environmental degradation. Interlinkages between SDGS means there is potential for interactions, synergies and trade-offs between individual goals across multiple temporal and spatial scales. We aim to develop an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) of a complex deltaic socio-ecological system where opportunities and trade-offs between the SDGs can be analysed. This is designed to inform local/regional policy. We focus on the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve (SBR) within the Indian Ganga Delta. This is home to 5.6 million often poor people with a strong dependence on rural livelihoods and also includes the Indian portion of the world’s largest mangrove forest – the Sundarbans. The area is subject to multiple drivers of environmental change operating at multiple scales (e.g. global climate change and sea-level rise, deltaic subsidence, extensive land use conversion and widespread migration). Here we discuss the challenges of linking models of human and natural systems to each other in the context of local policy decisions and SDG indicators. Challenges include linking processes derived at multiple spatial and temporal scales and data limitations. We present a framework for an IAM, based on the Delta Dynamic Emulator Model (ΔDIEM), to investigate the affects of current and future trends in environmental change and policy decisions within the SBR across a broad range of sub-thematic SDG indicators. This work brings together a wealth of experience in understanding and modelling changes in complex human and natural systems within deltas from previous projects (ESPA Deltas and DECCMA), along with local government and stakeholder expert knowledge within the Indian Ganga Delta.</p>

scholarly journals Stormwater Management in a Time of Climate Change: Insights from a Series of Scenario-Building Dialogues

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seth P. Tuler ◽  
Thomas Webler ◽  
Jason L. Rhoades
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stormwater Management ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Contextual Knowledge ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Human Environment ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Trade Offs

Abstract Numerous decision support tools have been developed to assist stormwater managers to understand future scenarios and devise management strategies. This paper presents one such tool, the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS) process, and reports on experiences from its deployment in 10 coastal communities on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. VCAPS helps to elucidate local complexities, couplings, and contextual nuance through dialogue among technical experts and those with detailed contextual knowledge of a community. Participants in the process develop qualitative scenarios of climate change impacts and how different management strategies may prevent or mitigate undesirable consequences. The scenarios help stormwater managers diagnose potential problems that may emerge from climate change and variability, which can then be subject to further detailed analysis. The authors describe five challenges faced by stormwater managers and how insights that emerge from scenario-based processes like VCAPS can help address them: characterizing the implications of interacting climate stressors that originate stormwater, bringing all available expertise and local knowledge to bear on the problem of stormwater management, integrating local and scientific information about coupled human–environment systems, identifying management actions and their trade-offs, and facilitating planning for sustained coordination among multiple public and private entities.

Irrigator and Environmental Water Management Adaptation to Climate Change and Water Reallocation in the Murray–Darling Basin

2015 ◽  
Vol 01 (03) ◽  
pp. 1550009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mac Kirby ◽  
Jeff Connor ◽  
Mobin-ud Din Ahmad ◽  
Lei Gao ◽  
Mohammed Mainuddin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Environmental Water ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Murray Darling Basin ◽  
Gross Income ◽  
The Impact

In an earlier paper (Kirby et al. 2014a), we showed that climate change and a new policy which reallocates water to the environment will impact both the flow of water and the income derived from irrigation in the Murray–Darling Basin. Here, we extend the analysis to consider irrigator and environmental water management strategies to adapt to these new circumstances. Using an integrated hydrology-economics model, we examine a range of strategies and their impact on flows and the gross income of irrigation. We show that the adaptation strategies provide a range of flow and economic outcomes in the Basin. Several strategies offer significant scope to enhance flows without large adverse impacts on the gross income of irrigation overall. Some environmental water management strategies enhance flows in the Murray part of the basin even under the drying influence of a projected median climate change. Irrigator strategies that include carryover of water in storage from one year to the next provide for lesser year to year variability in gross income and may be regarded as more advantageous in providing security against droughts. Flows and the gross income of low value irrigation industries strategies are sensitive to climate change, irrespective of adaptation strategy. Should a projected dry extreme climate change be realized, no strategy can prevent a large reduction in flows and also in gross income, particularly of low value irrigation industries. Nevertheless, environmental water management strategies mitigate the impact on flows, and in some cases may also help mitigate the impacts on gross income. High value irrigation industries are less affected (in terms of gross income, though net income will reduce because of rising water prices) by projected climate change, consistent with observation in the recent long term drought.

scholarly journals Social Acceptability of Flood Management Strategies under Climate Change Using Contingent Valuation Method (CVM)

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 5053 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatemeh Fadia Maghsood ◽  
Hamidreza Moradi ◽  
Ronny Berndtsson ◽  
Mostafa Panahi ◽  
Alireza Daneshi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Contingent Valuation ◽  
Local Community ◽  
Contingent Valuation Method ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Social Acceptability ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Valuation Method ◽  
The Social

Floods are natural hazards with serious impact on many aspects of human life. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that climate change already has significant impact on magnitude and frequency of flood events worldwide. Thus, it is suggested to adopt strategies to manage damage impacts of climate change. For this, involving the local community in the decision-making process, as well as experts and decision-makers, is essential. We focused on assessing the social acceptability of flood management strategies under climate change through a socio-hydrological approach using the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM). For this purpose as well, hydro-climate modelling and the Analytical Network Process (ANP) were used. Among twelve investigated flood management strategies, “river restoration”, “agricultural management and planning”, and “watershed management” were the publicly most accepted strategies. Assessment of the social acceptability of these three strategies was carried out by use of the CVM and Willingness to Pay (WTP) methodology. Generally, 50%, 38%, and 18% were willing to pay and 44%, 48%, and 52% were willing to contribute flood management strategy in zones 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Overall, peoples’ WTP for flood management strategies decreased with increasing distance from the river. Among different investigated dependent variables, household income had the highest influence on WTP.

Synergies and Trade-offs in Spatially Targeted Water Quality and Climate Change Mitigation Policies

2017 ◽  
Vol 93 (2) ◽  
pp. 309-327 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Theresia Konrad ◽  
Hans Estrup Andersen ◽  
Steen Gyldenkœrne ◽  
Mette Termansen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Change Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Policies

scholarly journals Bottom-Up Assessment of Climate Risk and the Robustness of Proposed Flood Management Strategies in the American River, CA

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 907
Author(s):  
Kara DiFrancesco ◽  
Alix Gitelman ◽  
David Purkey
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
American River ◽  
The Face ◽  
System Robustness

The hydrologic nonstationarity and uncertainty associated with climate change requires new decision-making methods to incorporate climate change impacts into flood frequency and flood risk analyses. To aid decision-making under climate change, we developed a bottom-up approach for assessing the performance of flood management systems under climate uncertainty and nonstationarity. The developed bottom-up approach was applied to the American River, CA, USA flood management system by first identifying the sensitivity and vulnerability of the system to different climates. To do this, we developed a climate response surface by calculating and plotting Expected Annual Damages (EAD, $/year) under different flood regimes. Next, we determined a range of plausible future climate change and flood frequency scenarios by applying Bayesian statistical methods to projected future flows derived from a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model forced with Global Circulation Model (GCM) output. We measured system robustness as the portion of plausible future scenarios under which the current flood system could meet its performance goal. Using this approach, we then evaluated the robustness of four proposed management strategies in the 2012 Central Valley Flood Protection Plan in terms of both flood risk and cost-effectiveness, to assess the performance of the strategies in the face of climate risks. Results indicated that the high sensitivity of the expected damages to changes in flood regimes makes the system extremely vulnerable to a large portion of the plausible range of future flood conditions. The management strategy that includes a combination of nature-based flood management actions along with engineered structures yields the greatest potential to increase system robustness in terms of maintaining EAD below an acceptable risk threshold. However, this strategy still leaves the system vulnerable to a wide range of plausible future conditions. As flood frequency regimes increase in intensity from the current conditions, the cost-effectiveness of the management strategies increases, to a point, before decreasing. This bottom up analysis demonstrated a viable decision-making approach for water managers in the face of uncertain and changing future conditions. Neglecting to use such an approach and omitting climate considerations from water resource planning could lead to strategies that do not perform as expected or which actually lead to mal-adaptations, increasing vulnerability to climate change.

scholarly journals Can integrative catchment management mitigate future water quality issues caused by climate change and socio-economic development?

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 1593-1609 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Honti ◽  
Nele Schuwirth ◽  
Jörg Rieckermann ◽  
Christian Stamm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Surface Water Quality ◽  
Quality Parameters ◽  
Model Structure ◽  
Predictive Uncertainty ◽  
Socio Economic Development

Abstract. The design and evaluation of solutions for integrated surface water quality management requires an integrated modelling approach. Integrated models have to be comprehensive enough to cover the aspects relevant for management decisions, allowing for mapping of larger-scale processes such as climate change to the regional and local contexts. Besides this, models have to be sufficiently simple and fast to apply proper methods of uncertainty analysis, covering model structure deficits and error propagation through the chain of sub-models. Here, we present a new integrated catchment model satisfying both conditions. The conceptual iWaQa model was developed to support the integrated management of small streams. It can be used to predict traditional water quality parameters, such as nutrients and a wide set of organic micropollutants (plant and material protection products), by considering all major pollutant pathways in urban and agricultural environments. Due to its simplicity, the model allows for a full, propagative analysis of predictive uncertainty, including certain structural and input errors. The usefulness of the model is demonstrated by predicting future surface water quality in a small catchment with mixed land use in the Swiss Plateau. We consider climate change, population growth or decline, socio-economic development, and the implementation of management strategies to tackle urban and agricultural point and non-point sources of pollution. Our results indicate that input and model structure uncertainties are the most influential factors for certain water quality parameters. In these cases model uncertainty is already high for present conditions. Nevertheless, accounting for today's uncertainty makes management fairly robust to the foreseen range of potential changes in the next decades. The assessment of total predictive uncertainty allows for selecting management strategies that show small sensitivity to poorly known boundary conditions. The identification of important sources of uncertainty helps to guide future monitoring efforts and pinpoints key indicators, whose evolution should be closely followed to adapt management. The possible impact of climate change is clearly demonstrated by water quality substantially changing depending on single climate model chains. However, when all climate trajectories are combined, the human land use and management decisions have a larger influence on water quality against a time horizon of 2050 in the study.

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