ANN versus SARIMA models in forecasting residential water consumption in Tunisia

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 330-340 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maamar Sebri
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Water Consumption ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Household Water ◽  
Residential Water Consumption ◽  
End Use ◽  
Total Water Demand

Water scarcity and increasing water demand, especially for residential end-use, are major challenges facing Tunisia. The need to accurately forecast water consumption is useful for the planning and management of this natural resource. In the current study, quarterly time series of household water consumption in Tunisia was forecast using a comparative analysis between the traditional Box–Jenkins method and an artificial neural networks approach. In particular, an attempt was made to test the effectiveness of data preprocessing, such as detrending and deseasonalization, on the accuracy of neural networks forecasting. Results indicate that the traditional Box–Jenkins method outperforms neural networks estimated on raw, detrended, or deseasonalized data in terms of forecasting accuracy. However, forecasts provided by the neural network model estimated on combined detrended and deseasonalized data are significantly more accurate and much closer to the actual data. This model is therefore selected to forecast future household water consumption in Tunisia. Projection results suggest that by 2025, water demand for residential end-use will represent around 18% of the total water demand of the country.

Developing a demand model integrating end uses of water (DMEUW): structure and process of integration

2015 ◽  
Vol 71 (4) ◽  
pp. 529-537 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. C. Sarker ◽  
S. Gato-Trinidad
Keyword(s):  
Water Consumption ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Residential Water Consumption ◽  
End Use ◽  
Hypertext Markup Language ◽  
End Uses

The process of developing an integrated water demand model integrating end uses of water has been presented. The model estimates and forecasts average daily water demand based on the end-use pattern and trend of residential water consumption, daily rainfall and temperature, water restrictions and water conservation programmes. The end-use model uses the latest end-use data set collected from Yarra Valley Water, Australia. A computer interface has also been developed using hypertext markup language and hypertext pre-processor. The developed model can be used by water authorities and water resource planners in forecasting water demand and by household owners in determining household water consumption.

scholarly journals The Effect of Social Behavior on Residential Water Consumption

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1184
Author(s):  
Daniel Morales Martínez ◽  
Alexandre Gori Maia
Keyword(s):  
Water Consumption ◽  
Spatial Dependence ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Innovative Strategy ◽  
Peer Effect ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Household Water ◽  
Residential Water Consumption ◽  
Residential Water

We analyze how residential water consumption is influenced by the consumption of households belonging to the same social group (peer effect). Analyses are based on household-level data provided by the Brazilian Household Budget Survey and use an innovative strategy that estimates the spatial dependence of water consumption while simultaneously controlling for potential sources of sample selectivity and endogeneity. The estimates of our quantile regression models highlight that, conditional on household characteristics, the greater the household water consumption, the greater the peer effect. In other words, the overconsumption of residential water seems to be influenced mainly by the behavior of social peers.

scholarly journals Household water use and conservation models using Monte Carlo techniques

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 4869-4900 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Cahill ◽  
J. R. Lund ◽  
B. DeOreo ◽  
J. Medellín-Azuara
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Mixed Integer ◽  
Residential Neighborhood ◽  
Household Water ◽  
End Use ◽  
Conservation Model

Abstract. The increased availability of water end use measurement studies allows for more mechanistic and detailed approaches to estimating household water demand and conservation potential. This study uses, probability distributions for parameters affecting water use estimated from end use studies and randomly sampled in Monte Carlo iterations to simulate water use in a single-family residential neighborhood. This model represents existing conditions and is calibrated to metered data. A two-stage mixed integer optimization model is then developed to estimate the least-cost combination of long- and short-term conservation actions for each household. This least-cost conservation model provides an estimate of the upper bound of reasonable conservation potential for varying pricing and rebate conditions. The models were adapted from previous work in Jordan and are applied to a neighborhood in San Ramon, California in eastern San Francisco Bay Area. The existing conditions model produces seasonal use results very close to the metered data. The least-cost conservation model suggests clothes washer rebates are among most cost-effective rebate programs for indoor uses. Retrofit of faucets and toilets is also cost effective and holds the highest potential for water savings from indoor uses. This mechanistic modeling approach can improve understanding of water demand and estimate cost-effectiveness of water conservation programs.

scholarly journals Estimating Sectoral Water Demand for Sindh Province of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 398-406
Author(s):  
Heman Das Lohano ◽  
Fateh Muhammad Marri
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Environmental Flows ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Water Requirements ◽  
Sindh Province ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Total Water Demand

Water resources in Sindh province of Pakistan are under significant pressure due to increasing and conflicting water demand from municipalities for domestic users, agriculture and industries, and requirements of environmental flows. Population growth and climate change are likely to pose serious challenges to households and economic sectors that depend on water. This study estimates the present water demand from municipalities, agriculture and industries, and its future projections by the year 2050 in Sindh. The study also evaluates the impact of climate change on sectoral water demand and assesses the water requirements for the environmental flows. The results show that presently the total water demand for these sectors in Sindh is 44.06 Million Acre Feet (MAF). Agriculture is the largest consumer of water, accounting for 95.24 percent of the total water demand. Municipal water demand accounts for 2.61 percent while industrial water demand accounts for 1.88 percent. The demand for water in these sectors is expected to rise by 10 percent from 2018 to 2050. Moreover, depending on climate change scenario, the total water demand in these three sectors is likely to rise by 16 to 25 percent from 2018 to 2050. In additions, water requirements for the environmental flows have been indicated as 10 MAF in the National Water Accord of 1991. The findings of this study call for policy measures and strategies for management of water resources in Sindh.

scholarly journals Water and time use: evidence from Kathmandu, Nepal

Water Policy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (S1) ◽  
pp. 76-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yvonne Jie Chen ◽  
Namrata Chindarkar ◽  
Jane Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Water Consumption ◽  
Time Use ◽  
Tap Water ◽  
Objective Measure ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Urban Households ◽  
Time Diary ◽  
Total Water Consumption ◽  
Household Water ◽  
Water Collection

Abstract In this paper, we examine the effect of private tap water reliability on time spent on water collection and total water consumption among urban households in Kathmandu, Nepal. Although the majority of households in Kathmandu are connected to a private tap, they experience intermittent water supply. We link a unique time diary dataset collected between 2014 and 2015 to household water consumption and tap water reliability data. Our empirical analyses demonstrate that improved reliability of private tap water connection (PWC), measured as self-reported reliability and an objective measure of ‘probability of getting tap water in the next hour’, leads to increased time spent on water collection. Households with more reliable PWC also consume more water overall and from their own taps. Further investigation demonstrates that when private taps became more reliable, households substituted water collected from outside the household, such as water from public taps and public wells, with water from their own private taps. Our results proved robust to additional specification checks.

scholarly journals Causes and Effects of Water Consumption Drop by the Population of Cities in Poland - Selected Aspects

2015 ◽  
Vol 27 (27) ◽  
pp. 67-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcin Gorączko ◽  
Rafał Pasela
Keyword(s):  
Water Consumption ◽  
Water Volume ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Official Statistics ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
City Population ◽  
Household Water ◽  
Daily Water ◽  
The City ◽  
Daily Water Consumption

Abstract The article presents, with an example of four cities of various size, a phenomenon of a drop in water consumption by the city population in Poland. The paper draws on 1995-2012 official statistics. A significant decrease in household water consumption was observed, which refers to both the total water volume used by households as well as the average daily water consumption per resident. The article also determines the most essential factors affecting the amount of water consumed, out of which the price of water appears to be of the most significant one.

scholarly journals Water Demand Forecast in the Baiyangdian Basin with the Extensive and Low-Carbon Economic Modes

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. L. Qin ◽  
D. H. Yan ◽  
G. Wang ◽  
J. Yin
Keyword(s):  
Water Demand ◽  
Industrial Structure ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Demand Forecast ◽  
Domestic Water ◽  
Water Demands ◽  
Water Demand Forecast ◽  
Population Urbanization ◽  
Total Water Demand

The extensive and low-carbon economic modes were constructed on the basis of population, urbanization level, economic growth rate, industrial structure, industrial scale, and ecoenvironmental water requirement. The objective of this paper is to quantitatively analyze effects of these two economic modes on regional water demand. Productive and domestic water demands were both derived by their scale and quota. Ecological water calculation involves the water within stream, wetland, and cities and towns. Total water demand of the research region was obtained based on the above three aspects. The research method was applied in the Baiyangdian basin. Results showed that total water demand with the extensive economic mode would increase by 1.27 billion m3, 1.53 billion m3, and 2.16 billion m3in 2015, 2020, and 2030, respectively, compared with that with low-carbon mode.

Micro-component survey of residential water consumption in Hanoi

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 469-478 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Otaki ◽  
M. Otaki ◽  
P. N. Bao ◽  
T. T. V. Nga ◽  
T. Aramaki
Keyword(s):  
Water Consumption ◽  
Basic Unit ◽  
Water Usage ◽  
Total Water Consumption ◽  
Domestic Use ◽  
Residential Water Consumption ◽  
Economic Perspectives ◽  
End Use ◽  
Policy Direction ◽  
Efficient Water Use

Daily total water consumption per capita has been used as a basic unit for the future planning of water supply for domestic use. However, for innovative water utilization designs that consider various scenarios, including the effects of policy direction and global warming, and more strategic and efficient water use, it is absolutely essential to consider water usage divided by residential activities, such as toilet flushing, cooking, clothes washing, and bathing. We collected micro-component data by direct measurement from each household outlet, and developed small accumulative meters. Measurements were conducted at 56 households for 2 months in Hanoi, Vietnam, and the average consumption was 18.6 L/p/d for toilet, 16.2 L/p/d for laundry, 10.4 L/p/d for bath, and 15.7 L/p/d for kitchen. We then analyzed the representative values and the distribution of water consumption for every usage from social and economic perspectives. In addition, we compared the results in Hanoi with those in Chiang Mai, Thailand, where we investigated water consumption a few years ago, and their value seemed similar except for bathroom use, but the substance was different. One distinct outcome of our investigation was the recognition of the cultural and methodological challenges to end-use assessment of water consumption in modernizing Asian communities.

scholarly journals What does rebounding water use look like? An examination of post-drought and post-flood water end-use demand in Queensland, Australia

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 561-568 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. D. Beal ◽  
A. Makki ◽  
R. A. Stewart
Keyword(s):  
Water Use ◽  
Water Consumption ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Management Policy ◽  
Dry Period ◽  
Residential Water Consumption ◽  
End Use ◽  
Capacity Data ◽  
Residential Water

Rebounding water use behaviour has been observed in communities that have experienced plentiful water supply following a very dry period. However, the drivers of such rebounds in water consumption are varied and not well understood. Knowledge of such drivers can greatly assist managers towards proactive demand management, modelling and timely promotion of water efficient behaviours. Total and end-use residential water consumption has been tracked in South East Queensland, Australia for a sample of up to 252 homes in post-drought conditions (dam supplies growing but water restrictions continued, changed water use behaviours still ‘fresh’), and during and post-flooding conditions (eased restrictions, 100% dam capacity). Data on end-use water consumption trends using nearly 3 years of residential water end-use data have revealed several interesting patterns of consumption such as a delayed return to pre-drought use, the influence of climate and end-use specific rebounds (e.g. indoor versus outdoor use). The end-use data have helped to identify the drivers of rebounding water consumption which appear to include environmental cues (rainfall, temperature), social cues (e.g. government encouraging consumers to turn on tap) and a gradual general reduction in conservative water use behaviours. The paper concludes with a discussion of how this knowledge can be used to inform long-term demand management policy, particularly in variable climates.

Water demand: the Austrian end-use study and conclusions for the future

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 205-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Neunteufel ◽  
Laurent Richard ◽  
Reinhard Perfler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Consumption ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Personal Information ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Single Family ◽  
End Use

Demographic and climate change will affect in the long term the total water consumption and therefore the planning and management of the related infrastructures. End-use studies provide information on water consumption and its influencing factors. However the availability of such detailed data is very limited. The research project carried out was based on total daily water consumption collected from 12 Austrian water supply areas for periods covering up to 10 years. The general data were complemented with high resolution measurements (ranging from day to 10 second intervals) of household consumption of residential buildings, semi-detached houses, single family homes, and weekend cottages as well as with meteorological data and comprehensive socio-economic and personal information. The major factors influencing residential household consumption are: demographic dynamics; age distribution; household size/family size; living conditions; and regional economic development. In the short term, water consumption is influenced by temperature, precipitation, day of the week and time. For residential consumption, these last parameters were found to be the main causes for the existing peak demands. Modernisation will lead to a further decrease of the indoor per capita water demand. The outdoor demand and its peaks are expected to increase due to climate change.

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