THE METHODOLOGY FOR LINGUISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF EMERGENCY SITUATIONS FOR THE PROCESS OF PRODUCING ELEMENTAL SULPHUR BY THE CLAUS

2016 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 034-042
Author(s):  
Denis V. Pechenkin ◽  
◽  
Yelena V. Bespalova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Elemental Sulphur ◽  
Emergency Situations

Consideration of Non-stationarity in the Development of Emergency Situations for the Quantitative Risk Assessment of Accidents at Hazardous Production Facilities of Oil and Product Pipelines

2021 ◽  
pp. 89-96
Author(s):  
A.M. Sverchkov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Ignition Time ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Oil Pipeline ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
External Conditions ◽  
Hazardous Production ◽  
Real Practice

It is proposed to use the new approach to assessing quantitative risk indicators. This approach allows to consider the temporal non-stationarity of the number of processes, including the development of an accident and the spatial movements of people. The greatest uncertainty in the risk analysis with an explosive and fire hazard component is not the frequency of initiating events used, but, for example, data on the probability of ignition. The range of variation of this probability is about two orders of magnitude (relatively speaking, from 1 % to 100 %), and the criteria and factors that determine the choice of this value are not always clearly defined. The paper proposes an approach that considers the probability of ignition as a dependence on the time that passed after the start of emergency depressurization. Knowing this dependence, it is possible to consider several scenarios with different ignition time after the start of the release and assign certain consequences and probabilities to each scenario. Moreover, it is possible for each single scenario on a specific piece of equipment (pipeline section) to obtain non-stationary, namely time-varying potential risk fields. The example of an accident on the oil pipeline is considered, the risk indicators of such an accident are calculated, it is shown that the risks can change over time, namely they are non-stationary characteristics. Further, this fact is transformed into the development of theoretical foundations for quantitative risk assessment, considering the non-stationarity of various processes occurring during emergency situations arising during the operation of equipment, individual behavior of people and changes in external conditions. The results obtained show the importance of considering the changes that occur during an emergency on the main oil and product pipelines. It is concluded that the proposed approach allows to reduce the conservatism of assessments provided by traditional methods. In real practice this approach can reasonably reduce the risk indicators by several times, sometimes by orders of magnitude.

scholarly journals Security monitoring of computerized boiler rooms with network access and risk assessment on a logicalprobabilistic model

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. 80-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. V. Sheptunov
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Computer Network ◽  
Boiler House ◽  
Safety Monitoring ◽  
Network Access ◽  
Safe Operation ◽  
Security Monitoring ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Boiler Room ◽  
Calculated Probability

We consider one of the existing technologies, scilicet of the multi-shift safety monitoring, which implies tracking of the integrity of the information system (IS) by periodically replacing each other operators in the interval between diagnostics of the system, in relation to computerized boiler-rooms with network access. Herein the IS of the boiler-house is taken into account as protected from dangerous software-engineering influences through the computer network only if to the beginning of the specified period of time the integrity of the system is ensured and throughout this set period the sources of danger do not penetrate the system (with a calculated probability). Here the operator of the boiler-room figures as an eventual link of the series of the controlled, including the program level, barriers for (external) network malefactor. For computerized boiler-houses, depending on the ratios for the duration of the operator’s work during each shift, the specified period of safe operation and the period between diagnostics, three variants are considered that are typical for this technology. The possibilities of applying the latter in the foreshortening of risk assessment of emergency situations (ES) within the previously developed by the author logical-probabilistic model for computerized boiler-houses are discussed.

scholarly journals Mathematical model for the evaluation of risk of emergency situations at a dangerous technical object based on artificial neural networks

2018 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 00069
Author(s):  
Nikolay Peganov ◽  
Aleksandr Tumanov ◽  
Vladimir Tumanov
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Technical Object ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
The Mathematical Model

In the work performed adaptation of artificial neural networks in modern security systems potentially dangerous technical objects — high-rise buildings as tools for assessing and forecasting in management decision. The study obtained the main scientific results: the mathematical model of risk assessment of man-made emergencies based on artificial neural networks; the mathematical model, adapted to the cumulative model of development technogene emergency-fire; provided risk assessment technique manmade emergencies based on artificial neural networks; represented private man-made fire risk assessment methodology using artificial neural networks.

scholarly journals Risk assessment for rail freight transport operations

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 476-488
Author(s):  
Lucyna Szaciłło ◽  
Marianna Jacyna ◽  
Emilian Szczepański ◽  
Mariusz Izdebski
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Freight Transport ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Railway Transport ◽  
Risk Assessment Process ◽  
Rail Freight ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Railway System ◽  
Risk Areas

The aim of this article is to assess the risk of performance of rail freight transport on the basis of an analysis of identified risk areas based on statistical data on the causes of accidents that occurred on the lines of railway transport in Poland. A critical review of selected scientific studies relating to the risk assessment process for identified areas of the railway system has been undertaken. Based on statistical data, the authors analysed the causes of accidents on railway lines in 2019 in Poland and determined the probability of occurrence of a given cause. In addition, the article calculates the probability of vehicle delays for different emergency situations occurring in the performance of rail freight transport operations. This enabled the authors of the article to carry out a risk assessment of freight train delays on railway lines.

Accident risk analysis of oil and gas facilities in Arctic climatic conditions

2019 ◽  
Vol 85 (2) ◽  
pp. 48-54
Author(s):  
N. A. Makhutov ◽  
A. M. Bol’shakov ◽  
M. I. Zakharova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Hazard Identification ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Accident Risk ◽  
Acceptable Risk ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Hazardous Production ◽  
Event Trees

The probability of occurring emergency situations increases in conditions of severe climate of the Arctic. Therefore, addressing the problems related to the risk assessment of accidents at oil and gas facilities in the Arctic zones based on acceptable risk criteria is of particular importance. Uncontrollable development of emergency situations is followed by emission of a significant amount of oil products and constitutes serious ecological danger, and also can lead to considerable destructions and death of people resulted from fire and explosion. Therefore, the goal of the study is development of the methods for analysis and assessment of the risk of accidents in reservoirs and gas pipelines at low temperatures to increase the industrial safety of hazardous production facilities operating in conditions of the Arctic North. The results of brittle fracture analysis and accident risk assessment for reservoir and gas pipeline under arctic climatic conditions are presented. Statistical data processing of accidents allowed us to determine the rupture sources, develop a “fault tree” of brittle fracture of reservoirs, “event trees” of reservoir explosion and gas outflow from a gas pipeline, with allowance for the frequency of scenarios for quantitative risk assessment. Currently the probabilistic approach is considered one of the most promising. Accident statistics and experience of previous risk analyses can provide a useful contribution to the process of hazard identification. We focus on the scenario approach to the problems of hazard identification and assess the probability (frequency) of emergencies proceeding from the analysis and systematization of the statistical data on the accidents on reservoirs and gas pipelines at low ambient temperatures using the “event trees” and “fault trees” which provide determination of the most critical scenario and expected risk from accidents. Thus, risk assessment of accidents at hazardous production facilities in the Arctic zone using criteria of acceptable risk will allow estimation of hazards with unacceptable level of risk and development of recommendations and measures to reduce them.

RISK ASSESSMENT AND ENSURING THE RELIABILITY OF ROLLING STORAGE ELEMENTS

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vyacheslav Tatarincev ◽  
Andrey Tolstosheev
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Railway Transport ◽  
Diagnostic Systems ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Critical Elements ◽  
Highly Loaded

The paper considers an approach to predicting the risks of emergencies in transport and improving its safety. It is shown that the prediction of risks in railway transport is determined by the processes of deformation and destruction at hazardous points of highly loaded zones of critical elements of transport objects. Management of the processes of degradation of transport facilities through the use of diagnostic systems and renovation technologies at all stages of the life cycle ensures an increase in its safety and protection from emergency situations.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document