scholarly journals Medical Brain Drain From Southeastern Europe: Using Digital Demography to Forecast Health Worker Emigration (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tado Jurić
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
World Health ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
Official Statistics ◽  
Right To Health Care ◽  
Freedom Of Movement ◽  
The Eu

BACKGROUND This paper shows that the tools of digital demography, such as Google Trends, can be used for determining, estimating, and predicting the migration of health care workers (HWs), in this case, from Croatia and the Western Balkans (WB) to Germany and Austria. OBJECTIVE This study aims to test the usefulness of Google Trends indexes to forecast HW migration from Croatia and the WB to Germany and Austria. The paper analyzes recent trends in HW mobility in Europe and focuses specifically on mobility patterns among medical doctors and nurses using digital demography. Without increased emigration in the last 10 years, Croatia and the WB would have 50% more HWs today, and this staff is now crucial in the fight against a pandemic. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the increase in emigration. METHODS A particular problem in analyzing the emigration of HCWs from Croatia and the WB is that there is no system for monitoring this process. Official data is up to 3 years late and exists only for persons deregistered from the state system. Furthermore, during the pandemic, the “normal” ways of data collection are simply too slow. The primary methodological concept of our approach is to monitor the digital trace of language searches with the Google Trends analytical tool. To standardize the data, we requested the data from January 2010 to December 2020 and divided the keyword frequency for each migration-related query. We compared this search frequency index with official statistics to prove the significance of the results and correlations, and test the model’s predictive potential. RESULTS All tested migration-related search queries, which indicate HCWs’ emigration planning, showed a positive linear association between Google index and data from official statistics (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: Serbia <i>R</i><sup>2</sup>=0.3381, Bosnia and Herzegovina [B&amp;H] <i>R</i><sup>2</sup>=0.2722, Croatia <i>R</i><sup>2</sup>=0.4515). Migration-related search activities such as “job application + nurses” from Croatia correlate strongly with official German data for emigrated HWs from Croatia, Serbia, and B&amp;H. Decreases in Google searches were correlated with the decrease in the emigration of HWs. Thus, this method allows reliable forecasts for the future. CONCLUSIONS This paper highlights that the World Health Organization’s list of countries with HWs shortages should be updated to include Croatia and the countries from the WB. The issue of the European Union drawing HWs from the EU periphery (Croatia) and nearby countries (B&amp;H, Serbia) clearly shows a clash between the EU freedom of movement and the right to health care and a need to ensure a health care workforce in all European regions. Understanding why HWs emigrate from Croatia and the WB, and the consequences of this process are crucial to enabling state agencies and governments to develop optimal intervention strategies to retain medical staff. The benefit of this method is reliable estimates that can enable a better response to a possible shortage of HWs and protect the functioning of the health system. The freedom of movement of workers in the EU must be supplemented with a common pension and health care system in the EU.

scholarly journals Medical Brain Drain From Southeastern Europe: Using Digital Demography to Forecast Health Worker Emigration

JMIRx Med ◽  
10.2196/30831 ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. e30831 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tado Jurić
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
World Health ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
Official Statistics ◽  
Right To Health Care ◽  
Freedom Of Movement ◽  
The Eu

Background This paper shows that the tools of digital demography, such as Google Trends, can be used for determining, estimating, and predicting the migration of health care workers (HWs), in this case, from Croatia and the Western Balkans (WB) to Germany and Austria. Objective This study aims to test the usefulness of Google Trends indexes to forecast HW migration from Croatia and the WB to Germany and Austria. The paper analyzes recent trends in HW mobility in Europe and focuses specifically on mobility patterns among medical doctors and nurses using digital demography. Without increased emigration in the last 10 years, Croatia and the WB would have 50% more HWs today, and this staff is now crucial in the fight against a pandemic. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the increase in emigration. Methods A particular problem in analyzing the emigration of HCWs from Croatia and the WB is that there is no system for monitoring this process. Official data is up to 3 years late and exists only for persons deregistered from the state system. Furthermore, during the pandemic, the “normal” ways of data collection are simply too slow. The primary methodological concept of our approach is to monitor the digital trace of language searches with the Google Trends analytical tool. To standardize the data, we requested the data from January 2010 to December 2020 and divided the keyword frequency for each migration-related query. We compared this search frequency index with official statistics to prove the significance of the results and correlations, and test the model’s predictive potential. Results All tested migration-related search queries, which indicate HCWs’ emigration planning, showed a positive linear association between Google index and data from official statistics (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: Serbia R2=0.3381, Bosnia and Herzegovina [B&H] R2=0.2722, Croatia R2=0.4515). Migration-related search activities such as “job application + nurses” from Croatia correlate strongly with official German data for emigrated HWs from Croatia, Serbia, and B&H. Decreases in Google searches were correlated with the decrease in the emigration of HWs. Thus, this method allows reliable forecasts for the future. Conclusions This paper highlights that the World Health Organization’s list of countries with HWs shortages should be updated to include Croatia and the countries from the WB. The issue of the European Union drawing HWs from the EU periphery (Croatia) and nearby countries (B&H, Serbia) clearly shows a clash between the EU freedom of movement and the right to health care and a need to ensure a health care workforce in all European regions. Understanding why HWs emigrate from Croatia and the WB, and the consequences of this process are crucial to enabling state agencies and governments to develop optimal intervention strategies to retain medical staff. The benefit of this method is reliable estimates that can enable a better response to a possible shortage of HWs and protect the functioning of the health system. The freedom of movement of workers in the EU must be supplemented with a common pension and health care system in the EU.

scholarly journals Health And Convergence Of Health Care Expenditure In EU

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaie Kerem ◽  
Tiia Puss ◽  
Mare Viies ◽  
Reet Maldre
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Health Care Expenditure ◽  
World Health ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
European Union Enlargement ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Eu

The objective of the paper is to review and analyze the health of population and health care expenditure and to examine the trends of convergence of health care expenditure in EU countries. One of the most often used indicators characterizing a populations health is life expectancy at birth. Comparative analyses show that the life expectancy at birth in EU-12 countries is much lower than in EU-15 countries. Although in 1992-2004 the life expectancy increased both in EU-15 countries and in EU-12 countries, the differences in the life expectancy have still remained more or less the same. Besides the low life expectancy in EU-12 countries, also the resources used in health care are below the EU-15 average level. In our paper we test the ?-, ?- and ?-convergence of the health care expenditure. For testing ?-, ?- and ?-convergence the authors have used cross-sectional data over the period 1992-2004 for health care expenditure as share of GDP and per capita health care expenditure. Data of the World Health Organization (WHO) were used for the research. The study demonstrates that although usually the increase of economic integration facilitates economic growth, the mere fact of the European Union enlargement does not bring along an automatic homogenization of health care expenditure and health policy in the EU-12 countries.

EU Health Law & Policy

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anniek de Ruijter
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Fundamental Rights ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Health Issues ◽  
Division Of Powers ◽  
Legal Principle ◽  
Legal Competence ◽  
The Eu

This book describes the expansion of EU power in health care and public health and analyses the implications of this expansion on EU health values and rights. The main conclusion of the book is that the EU is de facto balancing fundamental rights and values relating to health, implicitly taking on obligations for safeguarding fundamental rights in the field of health and affecting individuals’ rights sometimes without an explicit legal competence to do so. This brings to light instances where EU health policy has implications for fundamental rights and values without the possibility to challenge the exercise of power of the EU in human health. This begs the question of whether subsidiarity is still the most relevant legal principle for the division of powers and tasks among the Member States, particularly when EU policy and law involves the politically sensitive areas of health care and public health. This question draws out the parameter for continuing the debate on the role of the European Union in promoting its own values and the wellbeing of its peoples, in light of its ever-growing role in human health issues.

scholarly journals The health care sector in the economies of the European Union: an overview using an input–output framework

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Gutiérrez-Hernández ◽  
Ignacio Abásolo-Alessón
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
European Union ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Health Care Sector ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Input Output ◽  
National Currencies ◽  
Market Production ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Purchasing Power Parities

Abstract Background This study aims to analyse the relative importance of the health care sector (health care activities and services), its interrelations with the rest of productive activities, aggregate supply and demand, employment requirements and apparent labour productivity in the European Union (EU) economy as a whole, and in the economies of member countries. Methods The methodology used is based on input–output analysis. Data are extracted from National Accounts and, specifically, from the input–output framework for 2010. Data in national currencies are adjusted using as a conversion factor, specific purchasing power parities for health. Results In the EU, market production predominates in the provision of health care activities, which are financed mainly by public funding. However, there is significant variability among countries, and, in fact, non-market production predominates in most EU countries. The health care sector has direct backward and forward linkages lower than the average for all sectors of the economy and the average for the services sector. Thus, this sector is relatively independent of the rest of the productive structure in the EU. The health care activities industry is key because of its ability to generate value added and employment. Regarding apparent labour productivity, there are significant differences among EU countries, showing that productivity is positively related to the weight of market production in health care activities and negatively related to the number of hours worked per person employed. Conclusions Our results provide useful insights for health authorities in the EU, as they analyse the effect of health policies on macroeconomic indicators using an input–output framework, as well as comparing these effects with those in EU member countries. To the best of our knowledge, an analysis of the health care sector in the EU economy and the countries that integrate it using an input–output framework has not been undertaken. In addition, to compare health care expenditure between countries, data in national currencies have been adjusted using specific purchasing power parities for “health”, and not ones referring to the total economy (GDP), which is common practice in many previous studies.

scholarly journals Unia Europejska wobec Bałkanów Zachodnich w kontekście kryzysu migracyjnego w latach 2015‑2019

Politeja ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (3(66)) ◽  
pp. 157-169
Author(s):  
Wawrzyniec Banach
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
Balkan Countries ◽  
Research Goal ◽  
Accession Process ◽  
Migration Crisis ◽  
The Eu

European Union towards Western Balkans in the Context of Migration Crisis 2015‑2019 The aim of the article is to analyse the actions taken by the European Union towards the Western Balkans in the context of the migration crisis. The study assumes that the migration crisis was an important factor accelerating the accession process of the Western Balkan countries to the European Union. In order to fulfil the research goal, an analysis of sources (European Union documents) was conducted. The paper uses elements of the theory of the regional security complex as a theoretical framework. Firstly, the activities of the European Union before the migration crisis are discussed. Next, the paper focuses on presenting the course of the crisis on the Western Balkan route. The further part of the study discusses the actions taken by the EU towards the countries of the Western Balkans in response to the migration crisis.

scholarly journals The exports from the western Balkans countries to the EU: The main problems and recommendations

2006 ◽  
Vol 51 (168) ◽  
pp. 49-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Besim Culahovic
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Market Access ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
Serbia And Montenegro ◽  
Integration Strategy ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Trade Measures ◽  
The Eu

The European Union (EU) trade policy towards Western Balkan's countries (Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Serbia and Montenegro and the Republic of Macedonia) is one of the important tools of EU's integration strategy. The exports from the Western Balkan?s countries to the European Union(15) are preferred within special autonomous trade measures for the Western Balkan?s countries which were introduced by the EU in September 2000 (the 2000TM). The 2000TM are a far-ranging set of preferences which provide the Western Balkan?s countries with unparalleled market access to the EU, and hence with the potential both to develop the existing exports and to generate new exports. However, the Western Balkan?s countries exports to the EU are far below the level which could reasonably be expected. In all Western Balkan?s countries a number of supply-side and domestic policy reasons are identified for this under-performance, which suggests that the 2000TM are likely in part to rectify the situation. The economic regeneration of the Western Balkan?s countries will depend on the success of internal economic reform and on the adoption of economic and trade policies which specifically identify and address some serious supply-side constraints.

scholarly journals Climate Change in the Western Balkans and Eu Green Deal – Coherence, Challenges, and Perspective

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandi Knez ◽  
Snežana Štrbac ◽  
Iztok Podbregar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The State ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Average Annual Temperature ◽  
Level Of Economic Development ◽  
The Eu

Abstract Background: The European Commission (EC), based on the European Green Deal (2019) and the Recovery plan for Europe (2021) envisages investing 30% of the budget in climate-related programs, projects, and initiatives, which clearly shows Europe's commitment to becoming the first climate-neutral region by 2050. Activities are also planned for countries that are not members of the European Union (EU), which requires complex changes in the field of legislation, strategic planning, implementation, and monitoring. To successfully plan short-term and long-term activities on these grounds, it is necessary to have a realistic picture of the state of climate change in each country - as they spill over into the entire region of Europe. The main objective of this paper is to present the state of climate change in six Western Balkans countries, of which only Croatia is a member of the EU, for the needs of planning activities and initial harmonization with the EU plan to reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 2050. Results: The main results of the research show that in all countries of the region, the average annual temperature increased by 1.2 °C compared to 1970, with stabilization and the beginning of the decline which can be expected around 2040. The main reasons for climate change in the region are: industry, energy, and heating sector based on coal exploitation, low energy efficiency, etc. Conclusions: It can be concluded that all countries of the Western Balkans have adopted (or are in the process of adopting) the necessary regulations and strategies towards climate change mitigation, but the implementation of specific activities is at a low level. The reasons for this most often lies in the insufficient commitment of decision-makers to make significant changes in the field of climate change transition (lower level of economic development, lack of investment, preservation of social peace). Finally, the paper provides an overview of climate change by country, scenario analysis, and policy recommendations.

scholarly journals SOLIDARITY CHECK IN TIMES OF COVID-19. ANALYSIS OF THE EU APPROACH TOWARDS ITS CLOSEST NEIGHBOURS WITH A SPECIAL FOCUS ON MONTENEGRO

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Đurić ◽  
Bojana Lalatović
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Complex Structure ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
Governance System ◽  
Member States ◽  
Balkan Countries ◽  
The Eu

Solidarity as one of the cornerstone values of the European Union has been once again seated on the red chair and intensively discussed within the European Union and broader. After the economic recession and migrant crisis that marked the last two decades, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has once again harshly tested the fundamental objectives and values of the European Union and the responsiveness and effectiveness of its governance system on many fronts. In April, 2020 several EU Member States were among the worst affected countries worldwide and this situation soon became similar in their closest neighbourhood. It put a huge pressure on the EU to act faster, while at the same time placing this sui generis community to the test that led to revealing its strengths and weaknesses. As it happened in the previous crises, the Union launched policies and various programmes that were meant to lessen the burden of the Member States and aspiring countries caused by the crises. The objectives of the mentioned soft law instruments that the EU adopted during the COVID-19 crisis has been not only to show that EU law is equipped to react to health and economic crises rapidly but to deliver its support in terms of solidarity to its Member States and its closest neighbours facing the unprecedented health and economic crisis. This article will explore the value and implication of the solidarity principle in times of Covid-19 in its various manifestations. A special focus will be on the financial and material aspects of the EU instruments created to combat the negative consequences of the pandemic and their further impact on shaping the solidarity principle within the EU system. While examining the character and types of these mechanisms a special focus will be placed on those available to Western Balkan countries, whereas Montenegro as the “fast runner” in the EU integration process will be taken as a case study for the purpose of more detailed analyses. One of the major conclusions of the paper will be that although the speed of the EU reactions due to highly complex structure of decision making was not always satisfying for all the actors concerned, the EU once again has shown that it is reliable and that it treats the Western Balkan countries as privileged partners all for the sake of ending pandemic and launching the socio-economic recovery of the Western Balkans. Analytical and comparative methods will be dominantly relied upon throughout the paper. This will allow the authors to draw the main conclusions of the paper and assess the degree of solidarity as well as the effectiveness of the existing EU instruments that are available to Montenegro and aimed at diminishing negative consequences of the crisis.

scholarly journals Gloss to the Judgement of the Court of Justice of the European Union in Case C 129/18, SM versus Entry Clearance Officer, UK Visa Section

2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 189-200
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Woch
Keyword(s):  
Member State ◽  
Family Members ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Freedom Of Movement ◽  
State Of The Union ◽  
Legal Guardianship ◽  
The Status ◽  
Union Citizen ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Eu

The right of family members of Union citizens to live with them in the host Member State has always been considered essential for an effective freedom of movement of citizens. However, the provisions of Directive 2004/38/EC contain a different description of the scope of rights of family members of Union citizens taking advantage of the freedom of movement of persons as to the possibility of accompanying or joining EU citizens taking advantage of the freedom of movement of persons, depending on whether they belong to the circle of ‘closer’ or ‘distant’ family members. This issue acquires particular significance in the context of family members who are not citizens of any Member State of the Union. For individuals belonging to the circle of ‘closer’ family members, the EU legislator grants the subjective right to accompany or join a Union citizen exercising the right of the freedom of movement of persons. In the latter case, the legislator only obliges the host Member States to facilitate entry and residence for such individuals in accordance with their national legislation. The glossed judgment, by determining the status of individuals under legal guardianship within the framework of the Algerian kafala system as a ‘distant’ family member of a Union citizen, clearly touches upon a significant issue in the context of the Union’s freedom of movement of persons.    

scholarly journals FDI determinants in Europe and Chinese influence

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-37
Author(s):  
Alena Dorakh
Keyword(s):  
Trade Costs ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Vertical Fdi ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Despite recent concerns about the increasing influence of outside investors on the European Union (EU) and Western Balkans, the developed European countries are still a dominant source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the region, confirming the benefits of EU membership. At the same time, fast-growing connectivity and lower trade costs in accession and neighboring countries determine the FDI growth from China, particularly via the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). By applying panel data over 2000-2019 for 34 countries, which form 89% of all European FDI, we first examine FDI patterns around Europe, compare the EU, NMS, and Western Balkans; verify the importance of EU membership for FDI, caused reducing trade costs and improving connectivity. Thus, the new EU member states (NMS) and Western Balkans appear both as a home country and as a pre- entry destination to the EU. Then, we calculate trade costs indices for each selected country and partners over time and find that Europe and China are closely interconnected through trade and FDI. It means that stronger ties with China can be realized for the sample countries at the cost of easing relations with the EU. Finally, incorporating trade costs indices into the FDI model; we evaluate the impact of connectivity on FDI and estimate how BRI affected FDI in Europe. Additionally, we validate that the old framework of horizontal and vertical FDI not representative well and even new complex vertical or export-oriented FDI strategies are shifting today.

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