scholarly journals Forecasting the future while investigating the past. The use of computational models in pre-trial detention decisions.

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 1859
Author(s):  
Serena Quattrocolo

The paper focuses on the traditional purpose of pre-trial detention (and other precautionary measures) to prevent specific risks. While liberty is the rule, before conviction, pre-trial detention is an absolute exception, competing with the opposite principle of the presumption of innocence: providing valuable and accurate justification for balancing the interest to prevent risk with the presumption of innocence is an overarching difficulty for judges, in the whole western world. Which the solutions? The paper reflects and compares the traditional solution of legal presumptions with the newer trend of actuarial assessment tools, based on psycho-criminological theories, based on the Italian and the uS federal systems.

2012 ◽  
pp. 61-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ershov

According to the latest forecasts, it will take 10 years for the world economy to get back to “decent shape”. Some more critical estimates suggest that the whole western world will have a “colossal mess” within the next 5–10 years. Regulators of some major countries significantly and over a short time‑period changed their forecasts for the worse which means that uncertainty in the outlook for the future persists. Indeed, the intensive anti‑crisis measures have reduced the severity of the past problems, however the problems themselves have not disappeared. Moreover, some of them have become more intense — the eurocrisis, excessive debts, global liquidity glut against the backdrop of its deficit in some of market segments. As was the case prior to the crisis, derivatives and high‑risk operations with “junk” bonds grow; budget problems — “fiscal cliff” in the US — and other problems worsen. All of the above forces the regulators to take unprecedented (in their scope and nature) steps. Will they be able to tackle the problems which emerge?


2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-57
Author(s):  
Jamie McKeown

This article reports the findings from a study of discursive representations of the future role of technology in the work of the US National Intelligence Council (NIC). Specifically, it investigates the interplay of ‘techno-optimism’ (a form of ideological bias) and propositional certainty in the NIC’s ‘Future Global Trends Reports’. In doing so, it answers the following questions: To what extent was techno-optimism present in the discourse? What level of propositional certainty was expressed in the discourse? How did the discourse deal with the inherent uncertainty of the future? Overall, the discourse was pronouncedly techno-optimist in its stance towards the future role of technology: high-technological solutions were portrayed as solving a host of problems, despite the readily available presence of low-technology or no-technology solutions. In all, 75.1% of the representations were presented as future categorical certainties, meaning the future was predominantly presented as a known and closed inevitability. The discourse dealt with the inherent uncertainty of the subject matter, that is, the future, by projecting the past and present into the future. This was particularly the case in relation to the idea of technological military dominance as a guarantee of global peace, and the role of technology as an inevitable force free from societal censorship.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Andrew Mukuka Mulenga

In recent years, select African visual artists practising on the continent as well as in its diaspora have increasingly been attracted to themes that explore, portray or grapple with Africa’s future. Along with this increasing popularity of the ‘future’ or indeed ‘African futuristic’ themes by visual artists, such themes have also attracted academic consideration among various scholars, resulting primarily in topics described as ‘African Futurism’ or Afrofuturism. These are topics that may be used to disrupt what some scholars – across disciplines and in various contexts – have highlighted as the persistent presumptive notions that portray Africa as a hinterland (Hassan 1999; Sefa Dei, Hall and Goldin Rosenberg 2000; Simbao 2007; Soyinka-Airewele and Edozie 2010; Moyo 2013; Keita, L. 2014; Green 2014; Serpell 2016). This study makes an effort to critique certain aspects of ‘African Art History’ with regard to the representation of Africa, and raises the following question: How can an analysis of artistic portrayals of ‘the future’ portrayed in the works of select contemporary Zambian artists be used to critique the positioning of Africa as ‘backward’, an occurrence at the intersection of a dualistic framing of tradition versus modern. Furthermore, how can this be used to break down this dichotomy in order to challenge lingering perceptions of African belatedness? The study analyses ways in which this belatedness is challenged by the juxtaposition of traditional, contemporary and futuristic elements by discussing a series of topics and debates associated to African cultures and technology that may be deemed disconnected from the contemporary lived experiences of Africans based on the continent. The study acknowledges that there is no singular ‘African Art History’ that one can talk of and there have been various shifts in how it has been perceived. I argue that while currently the African art history that is written in the West does not simplistically position Africa as backward as it may have done in the past, there appear to be moments of a hangover of this perception (Lamp 1999:4). What started out as a largely Western scholarly discourse of African art history occurred in about the 1950s and the journal African Arts started in the 1960s. Even before contemporary African art became a big thing in the 1990s for the largely US- and Europe-based discourses there were many discussions in the US about how the ‘old’ art history tended to freeze time and that this was not appropriate (Drewal 1991 et al). In order to advance the discourse on contemporary African visual arts I present critical analyses of the select works of Zambian artists to develop interpretations of the broader uses of the aforementioned themes. The evidence that supports the core argument of this research is embedded in the images discussed throughout this dissertation. The artists featured in the study span several decades including artists who were active from the 1960s to the 1980s, such as Henry Tayali and Akwila Simpasa, as well as artists who have been practising since the 1980s, such as Chishimba Chansa and William Miko and those that are more current and have been producing work from the early 1990s and 2000s, such as Zenzele Chulu, Milumbe Haimbe, Stary Mwaba, Isaac Kalambata and Roy Jethro Phiri.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inder Singh ◽  
Marc W. Howard

AbstractSeveral authors have suggested a deep symmetry between the psychological processes that underlie our ability to remember the past and make predictions about the future. The judgment of recency (JOR) task measures temporal order judgments for the past by presenting pairs of probe stimuli; participants choose the probe that was presented more recently. We performed a short-term relative JOR task and introduced a novel judgment of imminence (JOI) task to study temporal order judgments for the future. In the JOI task, participants were trained on a probabilistic sequence. During a test phase, the sequence was occasionally interrupted with pairs of probes. Participants chose the probe that they expected would be presented sooner. Replicating prior work, we found that in JOR the correct RT depended only on the recency of the more recent probe. This suggests that memory for the past was supported by a backward self-terminating search model operating on a temporally-organized representation of the past. Analogously, in the JOI task we find that correct RT depended only on the imminence of the more imminent probe. By analogy to the JOR results, this suggests a forward self-terminating search model operating on a temporally-organized representation of the future. Critically, in both JOR and JOI the increase in RT with recency/imminence was sublinear, suggesting that both the timeline for the future and the timeline of the past are compressed. These results place strong constraints on computational models for constructing the predicted future.


Author(s):  
Sophie Meunier

The exponential growth of Chinese direct investment has been accompanied in some cases by controversy and even resistance, both in developing and in developed economies. Around the world, critics have expressed fears and denounced some of the potential dangers of this investment, such as lowering of local labour standards, hollowing out of industrial core through repatriation of assets, and acquisition of dual use technology. Alarmist media headlines have warned against a Chinese takeover of national economies one controversial investment deal at a time. The ensuing political backlash has often received considerable media attention and increased scrutiny over subsequent deals. What explains the political challenges posed by the spectacular explosion of Chinese direct investment over the past few years in the United States (US) and the European Union (EU)? How and why have attitudes and policies in the West changed over the past decade towards Chinese FDI? This chapter considers two alternative explanations for the political challenges triggered by Chinese investment in Western countries. The first is that Chinese FDI causes political unease because of its novelty. The second is the perception that there is something inherently different about the nature of Chinese FDI and therefore it should not be treated politically like any other foreign investment. These two explanations lead to a different set of predictions for the future of Chinese FDI in Europe and the US. The first section analyses how the novelty of Chinese FDI may pose political challenges to Western politicians and publics and compares the current phenomenon with past instances of political problematic sources of FDI. Section II examines the argument that there is something inherently different about Chinese FDI, notably as stemming from an emerging economy, a unique political system, and a non-ally in the security dimension. The third section explores the domestic political context in which these challenges are raised: in Europe, the euro crisis and the rise of populism; in the US, the focus on geopolitical competition and the rise of economic nationalism. The conclusion raises some implications of these political challenges on the future of Chinese outward investment.


2004 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jane A. Bullock ◽  
George D. Haddow

The discipline of emergency management (EM) is at a critical crossroads. Emergency managers around the world are faced with new threats, new responsibilities, and new opportunities. This paper examines the organizational changes made by the US federal government in shaping the new Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and presents three key lessons learned during the past decade that could guide emergency planners as they design and manage EM organizations of the future.


2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Annik M. Sorhaindo

Abstract Objective Although medication abortion has become more common in high-income countries, the procedure has not yet met early expectations for widening access to abortion. High-quality evidence can serve as a catalyst for changes in policy and practice. To direct research priorities, it is important to understand where quality evidence is concentrated and where gaps remain. High-income countries have developed a body of evidence that may have implications for the future of medication abortion. This literature review assesses the characteristics and quality of published studies on medication abortion conducted in the last 10 years in high-income countries and indicates future areas for research to advance policy and practice, and broaden access. Study design A structured search for literature resulted in 207 included studies. A framework based upon the World Health Organization definition of sub-tasks for medication abortion was developed to categorize research by recognized stages of the medication abortion process. Using an iterative and inductive approach, additional sub-themes were created under each of these categories. Established quality assessment frameworks were drawn upon to gauge the internal and external validity of the included research. Results Studies in the US and the UK have dominated research on MA in high-income countries. The political and social contexts of these countries will have shaped of this body of research. The past decade of research has focused largely on clinical aspects of medication abortion. Conclusion Researchers should consider refocusing energies toward testing service delivery approaches demonstrating promise and prioritizing research that has broader generalizability and relevance outside of narrow clinical contexts. Plain English summary Although medication abortion is more commonly available worldwide, it is not being used as often as people thought it would be, particularly in high income countries. In order to encourage changes in policy and practice that would allow greater use, we need good quality evidence. If we can understand where we do not have enough research and where we have good amounts of research, we can determine where to invest energies in further studies. Many high-income countries have produced research on medication abortion that could influence policy and practice in similarly resourced contexts. I conducted a literature review to be able to understand the type and quality of research on medication abortion conducted in high-income countries in the past 10 years. I conducted the review in an organized way to make sure that the papers reviewed discussed studies that I thought would be important for answering this question. The literature review found 207 papers. Each of these papers were reviewed and organized them by theme. I also used existing methods to determinine the quality of each study. Most of the research came from the US and the UK. Furthermore, most of the research conducted in the past 10 years was focused on clinical studies of medication abortion. In future studies, researchers should focus more on new ways of providing medication abortion to women that offers greater access. Also, the studies should be designed so that the results have meaning for a broader group of people or situations beyond where the study was done.


2001 ◽  
Vol 105 (1047) ◽  
pp. 241-254 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. FitzPatrick

The past has been interesting, but what of the future? As Fig. 1 shows, extrapolation is an attractive tool, with pitfalls for the incautious - most often exemplified in aerospace by the prediction that by 2015 the entire US defence budget would fund one aeroplane, or more recently by the belief that avionics will expand into infallibility and reduce costs to invisibility. The first extrapolation is premature, and the latter two as near as makes no difference wrong. In the case of the single affordable US defence aircraft the extrapolation probably correctly estimated the 2015 US defence budget, but erred in expressing the US Department of Defence requirement in terms of aircraft rather than damage-effects on target. The subsequent step change in avionics miniaturisation undermined the extrapolation and now looks likely to enable the DoD’s damage-effect requirements to be attained using products that lie on a different cost-effectiveness trend line.


Author(s):  
Jonathan Vande Geest ◽  
Ajay Bohra ◽  
Wei Sun ◽  
Elena Di Martino ◽  
Michael S. Sacks ◽  
...  

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), a localized dilation of the infrarenal aorta, represents a significant disease in the western population. There are approximately 200,000 patients in the US and 500,000 patients worldwide diagnosed with AAAs every year (Bosch, et al. 2001), and rupture of AAAs currently ranks as the 13th leading cause of death in the US. (Silverberg and Lubera 1987) In the past 30 years, the diagnosis of AAA has tripled in the Western world, and this will likely increase in the coming years as the average age of the population is increasing. (Bosch, et al. 2001)


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