scholarly journals SARIMA – A Model for Forecasting Product order demand

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1284-1289
Author(s):  
Pratiksha Rajendra Dharmadhikari
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Demand Forecast ◽  
Product Analysis ◽  
Product Demand ◽  
Simple Regression Model ◽  
The Future ◽  
Main Component ◽  
Product Order

Abstract: Product analysis is the most important part for any working manufacturing. It provides the sales record of their currently manufactured product and also it helps to predict its performance in the future. For this analysis, a SARIMAX model has been used with Time series forecasting. This paper will explain the need of such model instead of using a simple regression model to predict the order demand. This study analyses and presents a forecasting model to predict an order demand for the Product over the time period. Demand in Product is a main component for planning all processes in supply chain, and therefore determining Product demand is a great interest for supply chain. Mean forecasting for product order demand was carried out using SARIMA model, by using the past data from the period of 2011 to 2017. The model with the least value of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was selected as the appropriate model for forecasting mean Error. Test for normality of residuals were performed to see the adequacy of the chosen model. SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1) (12) was selected as the best model for mean product order demand forecast. The results obtained will prove that the model could be utilized to forecast the future demand in the Product manufacturing industry. These results will help the manufacturers for manufacturing reliable guidelines in making decisions. Keywords: ARIMA, AIC, S-ARIMA, Regression

Barriers of SCM in SMEs

2010 ◽  
Vol 44-47 ◽  
pp. 3997-4001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohd Nizam A. Rahman ◽  
Harlina Wasilan ◽  
Baba Md Deros ◽  
Jaharah Abd. Ghani
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Supply Chain Management ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
The Body ◽  
Extensive Discussion ◽  
Distribution Method ◽  
Chain Management ◽  
Body Of Knowledge ◽  
The Future ◽  
Management Concept

Supply chain management concept (SCM) was begun to be accepted by the industry, but there were several barriers identified during the application of this concept. The purpose of this research was to identify the barriers faced by manufacturing industry especially among SMEs in implementing SCM. This study was carried out using questionnaire distribution method to research sample consisting of SME manufacturing company. The results shows the list of obstacles existed in SCM implementation in industry with involvement of; lack of skill; lack of knowledge; lack of power; lack of infrastructure; and lack of trust. Extensive discussion based on previous studies/research related to SCM was done in this research. Improvement in SCM which can be made as reference by researcher in the future was proposed. It hopes the research can support the body of knowledge.

A Study on the Impact of Family-friendly Certification on Financial Performance of SMEs: Focusing on the Manufacturing Industry

2019 ◽  
Vol 118 (2) ◽  
pp. 7-12
Author(s):  
Ok-Hee Park ◽  
Kwan-sik Na ◽  
Seok-Kee Lee
Keyword(s):  
Financial Performance ◽  
Family Life ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Work And Family ◽  
Family Friendly ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Background/Objectives: The purpose of the paper is to examine how family-friendly certificates introduced to pursue the compatibility of work and family life affect the financial performance of small and medium-sized manufacturers, and to provide useful information to companies considering the introduction of this system in the future.

scholarly journals Information Acquisition and Its Incentives in an E-Commerce Supply Chain under the Offline Showroom Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 1791-1804
Author(s):  
Mengli Li ◽  
Xumei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Information Acquisition ◽  
Incentive Contracts ◽  
Demand Forecast ◽  
Competition Intensity ◽  
Demand Information ◽  
Optimal Information ◽  
Acquisition Strategy ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

Recently, the showroom model has developed fast for allowing consumers to evaluate a product offline and then buy it online. This paper aims at exploring the optimal information acquisition strategy and its incentive contracts in an e-commerce supply chain with two competing e-tailers and an offline showroom. Based on signaling game theory, we build a mathematical model by considering the impact of experience service and competition intensity on consumers’ demand. We find that, on the one hand, information acquisition promotes supply chain members to obtain demand information directly or indirectly, which leads to forecast revenue. On the other hand, information acquisition promotes supply chain members to distort optimal decisions, which results in signal cost. The optimal information acquisition strategy depends on the joint impact of forecast revenue, signal cost and demand forecast cost. Notably, in some conditions, the offline showroom will not acquire demand information even when its cost is equal to zero. We also design two different information acquisition incentive contracts to obtain Pareto improvement for all supply chain members.

scholarly journals Supply chain – a key factor of the sustainable development of city centers

Pomorstvo ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-50
Author(s):  
Mladen Jardas ◽  
Čedomir Dundović ◽  
Paola Badurina-Tomić
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Future Development ◽  
Distribution Center ◽  
End User ◽  
City Center ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Efficient Delivery ◽  
The Future ◽  
Key Factor

In the paper importance is given to the organization of the supply chain for a more efficient delivery of goods to city centers. Logistics activities are closely related because they depend on each other. The ultimate goal is to bring the product/goods to the end customer/consumer as soon as possible, on time, at the lowest cost, in perfect condition and in the appropriate quantity. The mutual coordination and cooperation of all participants in the supply chain can result in a satisfied end-user/customer. The development of information – telecommunication technologies – will greatly affect the future development and efficiency of the supply chain by finding new transport solutions that would mostly affect city centers. The paper mostly emphasizes the context of the delivery conditions in Rijeka’s city center with a proposal for the location of a future centralized distribution center.

Path analysis for proposed framework of SCM excellence in Indian manufacturing industry

2016 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 577-611 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunjan Soni ◽  
Rambabu Kodali
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Path Analysis ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Structural Models ◽  
Statistical Testing ◽  
Model Fit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Equation Modelling

Purpose – Several authors in extant literature have shown concern towards lacuna in availability of standard constructs in supply chain management (SCM). These standard constructs can represent pillars of SCM excellence. However, frameworks on SCM excellence unlike its contemporary fields are very few. Thus the purpose of this paper is to develop a path analysis for proposed framework of SCM excellence in Indian manufacturing industry proposed by Soni and Kodali (2014) using interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and structural equation modelling (SEM). Design/methodology/approach – The ISM is performed on two exemplary cases of supply chain in Indian manufacturing industry. These cases were selected on the consideration of supply chain excellence index (SCEI), based on the results of an empirical study conducted by Soni and Kodali (2014) in Indian manufacturing industry. The focal manufacturing company which exhibited lowest and highest SCEI were selected as contenders for developing ISM. The relationships among pillars and constructs of SCM excellence framework are obtained from ISM, and later are subjected to statistical testing of model fit by using SEM. The input to SEM was the respondent’s data used in previous study. Findings – The major findings revealed that ISM based on focal company having highest SCEI, is statistically fit for SCM excellence framework, and finally the structural models of the constructs for each pillar of SCM excellence are also formed by using path analysis. Originality/value – The study offers a unique managerial approach for analysing the underlying relationships between pillars of SCM excellence. Researchers can use this study for developing frameworks in various realms of SCM excellence.

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